Core Insights - Domestic oil prices are expected to rise significantly, with an estimated increase of 165 yuan per ton, translating to nearly 10 yuan more for a full tank of gas [1][3] - The current adjustment cycle has seen a crude oil change rate of 3.45%, indicating a potential increase of 0.15 yuan per liter [3] - International oil prices have fluctuated, with recent increases pushing the price hike by an additional 25 yuan per ton, despite previous declines [3] Price Variations - Regional price differences are notable, with 92 gasoline prices varying from 6.63 yuan per liter in Xinjiang to 7.95 yuan in Hainan [4][5] - The price of 95 gasoline also shows significant regional disparities, with prices ranging from 7.11 yuan in Hebei to 8.45 yuan in Hainan [5] - Diesel prices also vary, with the lowest being 6,550 yuan per ton in Hengyang, highlighting the inconsistency in fuel pricing across different regions [4] Market Dynamics - The fluctuations in international oil prices are attributed to market psychological factors, including the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and OPEC's production increases [3] - Experts predict that global oil prices are likely to maintain a "steady upward trend" until 2026, barring any significant disruptions in global trade [3] - The upcoming price adjustment window on November 10 may lead to further increases if international oil prices do not experience a drastic drop [5]

Core Viewpoint - Since June, international oil prices have been on the rise, with WTI crude oil futures settling at $71.77 per barrel and Brent crude at $73.23 per barrel, significantly up from around $60 per barrel at the beginning of the month [1] Group 1: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - The domestic fuel price adjustment window opened on June 17, with expectations of consecutive price increases due to rising international oil prices [2] - Analysts predict that gasoline and diesel retail prices will increase by 260 yuan and 255 yuan per ton, respectively, translating to price increases of 0.20 yuan for 92 gasoline and 0.22 yuan for 0 diesel [2][3] - The increase in fuel prices will raise costs for consumers, with an estimated additional cost of 10 yuan for filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline and an increase of approximately 15 yuan for a small car running 2000 km per month [4] Group 2: Future Price Trends - The next price adjustment window is expected to open on July 1, 2025, with predictions of significant price increases based on current international oil prices [5] - Analysts suggest that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and improving demand may continue to support high international oil prices, leading to a high likelihood of domestic fuel price increases in the next cycle [5] - The overall outlook indicates that the domestic fuel market will experience upward pressure on prices due to reduced supply from lower refinery operating rates and stable gasoline demand [5]