今日是新一轮油价调整周期的第3个工作日，当前预计油价下调80元/吨，折合每升油价下调0.06-0.07 元，相比昨日的油价预计跌幅减少10元/吨，跌破下调红线，油价有下跌可能。 注意，国际油价回升中 另外，昨晚公布的美国EIA原油库存录得增加277万桶，市场预期是减少232.9万桶。汽油库存录得增加 251.3万桶，市场预期增加116.3万桶。市场对原油供应过剩的预期强化，直接限制昨日油价涨幅。 总的来说，在供应过剩以及俄乌和谈的预期下，油价仍有下跌空间，市场也还在等待更多消息数据中。 本轮油价会跌多少，让我们持续关注~ 本轮油价调整时间：12月8日24时 | 地区 | 92号汽油 | 95号汽油 | 98号汽油 | 0号柴油 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北京 | 6.89 | 7.33 | 8.83 | 6.56 | | 上海 | 6.85 | 7.29 | 9.19 | 6.5 | | #上 | 686 | 73 | 0 36 | 6 19 | | 1-175 | | 1 .J | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天津 ...

今日是新一轮油价调整周期的第2个工作日，当前预计油价下调90元/吨，折合每升油价下调0.07-0.08元，相比昨日的油价预计跌幅增加40 元/吨，跌破下调红线，油价有下跌可能。 注意，国际油价大跌 注意，受俄乌和谈预期升温，原油的地缘政治风险溢价再次回落，昨日国际油价大跌，回吐了前一日的涨幅。国内油价预计跌幅也出现扩 大，但距离本轮调整还有快两周的时间，后续油价仍有波动可能。 这边说下昨日原油市场的表现，美原油：下跌1.32%，收于58.10美元/桶。布伦特原油下跌1.32%，收于61.90美元/桶。今日国际油价再次震 荡，截至发稿，美原油暂报58.03美元/桶，跌幅0.14%。 目前在俄乌局势上，美国总统特朗普称"和平协议已非常接近达成"，还有乌官员称，乌美已就日前在日内瓦讨论的和平协议核心条款达成 共识。不过俄罗斯方面仍未发表相关言论。 总的来说，国际油价或有下跌可能，晚间还有美国至11月22日当周初请失业金人数，预计也会对油价产生影响，有需要的投资者也可以关 注下。 本轮油价会跌多少，让我们持续关注~ 本轮油价调整时间：12月8日24时 | 地区 | 92号汽油 | 95号汽油 | 98号汽油 | 0号 ...

Group 1: Domestic Oil Price Adjustment - The domestic oil price adjustment is expected to occur on November 24, with a forecasted decrease in oil prices due to a negative change rate of -0.94% in international crude oil prices, leading to a potential drop of approximately 50 yuan per ton, or 0.04 to 0.05 yuan per liter for gasoline [1][2] - The current downward trend in oil prices has already met the minimum adjustment standard, indicating that gasoline prices, which recently exceeded 7 yuan per liter, are likely to revert to the "6 yuan era" [2] Group 2: International Oil Price Dynamics - The strong performance of the US dollar and changing market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions have exerted downward pressure on crude oil prices, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping from 90% to 35% [3] - Light crude oil futures for January delivery fell by $0.94 to $58.06 per barrel, a decrease of 1.59%, while Brent crude oil futures also declined by $0.82 to $62.56 per barrel, down 1.29% [3] Group 3: Regional Gasoline Prices - Gasoline prices vary across regions, with notable prices including: - Northeast: Liaoning 8.19 yuan/liter, Jilin 8.12 yuan/liter, Heilongjiang 8.43 yuan/liter [3] - North China: Beijing 8.89 yuan/liter, Tianjin 8.82 yuan/liter, Hebei 8.14 yuan/liter [4] - East China: Shanghai 9.25 yuan/liter, Jiangsu 9.41 yuan/liter, Zhejiang 9.36 yuan/liter [5] - Central China: Henan 8.67 yuan/liter, Hubei 9.44 yuan/liter, Hunan 8.33 yuan/liter [6] - South China: Guangdong 9.54 yuan/liter, Guangxi 8.82 yuan/liter, Hainan 9.55 yuan/liter [7] - Southwest: Chongqing 8.35 yuan/liter, Sichuan 8.52 yuan/liter, Yunnan 8.29 yuan/liter [8] - Northwest: Shaanxi 9.48 yuan/liter, Gansu 7.97 yuan/liter, Xinjiang 8.05 yuan/liter [9] Group 4: Diesel Prices by Region - Diesel prices also show regional variation, with prices such as: - Northeast: Liaoning 6.49 yuan/liter, Jilin 6.50 yuan/liter, Heilongjiang 6.43 yuan/liter [11] - North China: Beijing 6.62 yuan/liter, Tianjin 6.58 yuan/liter, Hebei 6.58 yuan/liter [11] - East China: Shanghai 6.56 yuan/liter, Jiangsu 6.55 yuan/liter, Zhejiang 6.57 yuan/liter [11] - Central China: Henan 6.56 yuan/liter, Hubei 6.57 yuan/liter, Hunan 6.64 yuan/liter [11] - South China: Guangdong 6.59 yuan/liter, Guangxi 6.64 yuan/liter, Hainan 6.67 yuan/liter [11] - Southwest: Chongqing 6.65 yuan/liter, Sichuan 6.64 yuan/liter, Yunnan 6.66 yuan/liter [11] - Northwest: Shaanxi 6.48 yuan/liter, Gansu 6.49 yuan/liter, Xinjiang 6.36 yuan/liter [11]

Core Points - The price of gasoline and diesel in Harbin will be adjusted starting from November 25, with specific reductions announced for various fuel types [1][2] Price Adjustments - The price of 92-octane gasoline will decrease by 0.05 yuan per liter, from 6.96 yuan to 6.91 yuan [2] - The price of 95-octane gasoline will decrease by 0.06 yuan per liter, now priced at 7.37 yuan [2] - The price of 98-octane gasoline will decrease by 0.07 yuan per liter, now priced at 8.36 yuan [2] - The price of 0 diesel will decrease by 0.05 yuan per liter, now priced at 6.38 yuan [2] - The price of -35 diesel will decrease by 0.06 yuan per liter, now priced at 7.32 yuan [2]

Core Insights - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates a decrease of 45 yuan/ton, with an increased expected drop of 5 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, remaining below the adjustment threshold [1] - International oil prices have experienced a significant drop due to geopolitical developments, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine situation, with expectations of a potential framework agreement by the end of the month [3] - The latest EIA data shows a reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.426 million barrels, contrasting with an expected decrease of 603,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 2 million barrels against an expected decrease [3] Oil Price Trends - As of the latest reports, U.S. crude oil is trading at $59.47 per barrel, showing a slight increase of 0.10% after a previous drop of 1.92% [3] - Brent crude oil also saw a decline of 1.74%, closing at $63.66 per barrel [3] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate are anticipated to influence further fluctuations in oil prices [3] Regional Fuel Prices - The new fuel price adjustments will take effect on November 24, with specific prices for various fuel types listed for major cities [4][5][6] - For example, in Beijing, the price for 92 octane gasoline is 6.94 yuan/liter, while 95 octane is priced at 7.39 yuan/liter [4] - Prices vary across regions, with notable differences in cities like Shanghai, Guangdong, and Jiangsu [5][6]

Core Insights - The current expectation is for a price increase of 45 yuan/ton for oil, with a potential rise of 75 yuan/ton compared to the previous day's forecast, nearing the upper limit for price adjustments [1] - International oil prices have surged significantly due to optimistic market sentiment regarding the end of the U.S. government shutdown and sanctions affecting Russian oil exports, leading to a shift from a decline to an increase in domestic oil prices [3] - Recent market performance shows U.S. crude oil rose by 1.75% to $60.98 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 1.80% to $65.09 per barrel, indicating volatility in oil prices [3] Market Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the short-term rise in oil prices is primarily driven by market risk premiums rather than fundamental supply-demand adjustments [3] - There are indications that India is reducing its December orders for Russian oil while increasing purchases of U.S. oil, which may tighten supply expectations and elevate oil prices in the short term [3] - Upcoming reports, including the EIA's monthly short-term energy outlook and the API crude oil inventory report, are expected to contribute to ongoing price fluctuations [3] Regional Price Adjustments - The following are the expected prices for various fuel types across different regions in China: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 6.94, 95 gasoline at 7.39, 98 gasoline at 8.89, 0 diesel at 6.62 [4] - Shanghai: 92 gasoline at 6.91, 95 gasoline at 7.35, 98 gasoline at 9.25, 0 diesel at 6.56 [4] - Guangdong: 92 gasoline at 6.96, 95 gasoline at 7.54, 98 gasoline at 9.54, 0 diesel at 6.59 [4] - The price adjustments are set to take effect on November 24 at 24:00 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gasoline and diesel in Harbin has been increased as per the notice from the National Development and Reform Commission, effective from 11th of the month [1] Price Adjustments - The price of 92 gasoline has been raised from 8994 yuan/ton to 9127 yuan/ton, an increase of 133 yuan/ton, resulting in a retail price increase from 6.81 yuan/liter to 6.96 yuan/liter, up by 0.15 yuan [1] - The price of 95 gasoline has been increased by 0.14 yuan/liter, now priced at 7.43 yuan/liter [1] - The price of 98 gasoline has been raised by 0.17 yuan/liter, now at 8.43 yuan/liter [1] - The price of 0 diesel has been increased by 0.14 yuan/liter, now priced at 6.43 yuan/liter [1] - The price of -35 diesel has been raised by 0.13 yuan/liter, now at 7.38 yuan/liter [1]

Core Viewpoint - A new round of fuel price adjustments is imminent, with expectations of a significant increase in oil prices due to a rebound in international crude oil prices after a previous decline [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - Recent increases in crude oil prices are attributed to multiple favorable factors, including expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and easing U.S.-China trade tensions, which have improved global economic and oil demand outlooks [3]. - OPEC+ has decided to postpone production increases in the first quarter of next year, demonstrating a commitment to maintaining market balance [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Venezuela, have injected a risk premium into the market, despite a temporary price drop following initial spikes [3]. Group 2: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - As of November 4, the average price of reference crude oil is $62.87 per barrel, with a change rate of 3.45%, indicating a potential domestic fuel price increase of 165 yuan per ton, translating to an expected rise of 0.13 to 0.15 yuan per liter for gasoline and diesel [6]. - Since July 1, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have not been adjusted for nearly four months, with a total of six increases, nine decreases, and six standoffs this year, leading to prices reaching a near four-year low [6]. - Current prices for 92 and 95 gasoline have decreased by approximately 1 yuan per liter from their peak earlier this year, with 92 gasoline now priced at 6.82 yuan per liter and 95 gasoline at 7.25 yuan per liter [7][8].

Core Insights - Domestic oil prices are expected to rise significantly, with an estimated increase of 165 yuan per ton, translating to nearly 10 yuan more for a full tank of gas [1][3] - The current adjustment cycle has seen a crude oil change rate of 3.45%, indicating a potential increase of 0.15 yuan per liter [3] - International oil prices have fluctuated, with recent increases pushing the price hike by an additional 25 yuan per ton, despite previous declines [3] Price Variations - Regional price differences are notable, with 92 gasoline prices varying from 6.63 yuan per liter in Xinjiang to 7.95 yuan in Hainan [4][5] - The price of 95 gasoline also shows significant regional disparities, with prices ranging from 7.11 yuan in Hebei to 8.45 yuan in Hainan [5] - Diesel prices also vary, with the lowest being 6,550 yuan per ton in Hengyang, highlighting the inconsistency in fuel pricing across different regions [4] Market Dynamics - The fluctuations in international oil prices are attributed to market psychological factors, including the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and OPEC's production increases [3] - Experts predict that global oil prices are likely to maintain a "steady upward trend" until 2026, barring any significant disruptions in global trade [3] - The upcoming price adjustment window on November 10 may lead to further increases if international oil prices do not experience a drastic drop [5]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have recently experienced a significant drop, reaching a four-year low, but are expected to rise again, potentially surpassing 7 yuan per liter, impacting consumers' wallets [1][3]. Price Fluctuations - The recent adjustment in oil prices is expected to increase the cost by approximately 0.16 to 0.18 yuan per liter, translating to an additional 8 to 9 yuan for a full tank of 50 liters [1][3]. - Throughout the year, there have been 21 rounds of oil price adjustments, with 6 instances of price freezes, 9 decreases, and 6 increases, resulting in an overall decline of over 700 yuan per ton for gasoline [3]. Regional Price Variations - Current gasoline prices in various regions include: - Beijing: 6.84 yuan (92), 7.39 yuan (95) - Shanghai: 6.80 yuan (92), 7.24 yuan (95) - Jiangsu: 6.81 yuan (92), 7.25 yuan (95) - Other regions also show similar pricing trends, with predictions indicating a rise towards the 7 yuan mark for 92 gasoline in several areas [3][4]. Market Influences - The fluctuations in oil prices are primarily driven by international crude oil prices, which recently rebounded from around 60 dollars to approximately 62 dollars per barrel. Analysts suggest that if prices stabilize above 62 dollars, they could rise further to 65-67 dollars [4]. - Factors such as global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations contribute to the volatility in oil prices [4]. Consumer Sentiment - The rapid changes in oil prices create a perception of unpredictability among consumers, with price increases often occurring swiftly compared to decreases, leading to frustration regarding the transparency and frequency of adjustments [4].