国际油价骤然转冷，国内油价迎大幅下调，有料财经深度解读 作者：小天（有料财经） 开篇 一场席卷国际原油市场的巨变，正以前所未有的速度改变着市场格局。近日，国际原油价格遭受重挫，三地原油期货价格平均跌幅高达4.33%。有料财经在 此预警，国内成品油零售价恐将于8月26日24时迎来一次显著的下调，预计汽油柴油价格每吨将下调215元，其中92号汽油价格每升将下调0.18元。本文将抽 丝剥茧，深入剖析本次国内油价调整背后的多重因素，揭示国际金融市场动向与全球石油供需关系错综复杂的联动逻辑，为广大读者献上一份专业、时效性 强且兼具深度洞察的最新油价分析报告。 有料财经：专业、客观、有态度的财经资讯 有料财经始终致力于为读者提供原创的财经知识科普与权威的油价分析。我们的内容严格依照新华社、人民日报等国家级媒体的报道，中国石化、中国石 油、国家发改委官网发布的官方信息，以及国际金融市场和原油市场的实时行情数据，并融合资深金融财经专家的独到见解，力求呈现最准确、最全面的市 场动态。 我们恳请各位读者不吝点赞与关注，以便及时获取最新的油价调整信息和专业的分析解读。同时，我们也希望大家能够理性看待国内油价调整的内在机制， 摒弃对 ...

午夜时分，全国加油站的电子显示屏即将迎来一次集体性的跳动，这一次，下跌的数字成为了主角。 让我们把时钟拨回到2025年初，那时的油价还是一场 让人心惊肉跳的过山车。 油价的起伏，背后是国际原油市场多方力量的博弈。华尔街的交易员们沉浸在对美联储降息的憧憬中，他们坚信油价将会重拾升势；而另一方面，石油输出 国组织（OPEC）却悄悄地拧大了输油阀门，计划提前一年完成减产目标，准备每日增产54.7万桶。面对这复杂的局面，就连加油站老板老王也忍不住感 叹："搞石油比炒股还刺激，明天是涨是跌，谁也说不准！" 有机构大胆预测，本轮油价的降幅可能会扩大到每吨300元。如果预测成真，那么92号汽油的价格有望重回6元时代，这将是2025年以来最大的一次单次跌 幅！ 然而，老司机们也切莫高兴得太早。 国际油价的走势瞬息万变，美联储是否降息仍然是个未知数。眼下的这波降价行情，就像是沙漠中难得一见的清泉， 如果错过了，可能又要经历漫长的等待。 2025年初，国际原油市场风云突变，油价波动如惊涛骇浪。年初至今，短短数月，国内成品油调价窗口已开启16次。这其中，4次因涨跌幅度过小而未能调 整，6次油价应声下跌，另有6次则逆势上涨，每一次波 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated decline in oil prices in 2025, driven by multiple factors affecting the global oil market, with a significant downward trend expected starting in September 2025 [1]. Group 1: Current Oil Prices - As of August 6, 2025, domestic fuel prices are as follows: 92 gasoline at 7.23 CNY/liter, 95 gasoline at 7.69 CNY/liter, 98 gasoline at 8.49 CNY/liter, and 0 diesel at 6.87 CNY/liter [2]. - International oil prices are reported with WTI at $65.16 per barrel and Brent at $67.64 per barrel, reflecting a decline of 12.3% and 10.8% respectively from July highs [2]. Group 2: Reasons for Oil Price Decline - Major oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, have increased production for five consecutive months, with OPEC planning to raise output by 547,000 barrels per day in September, leading to a significant risk of oversupply [5]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain high interest rates has increased the cost of oil for buyers using other currencies, dampening consumption expectations [5]. - A slowdown in global economic activity and a decrease in trade, with the IMF reporting an 8% drop in global trade volume due to tariff policies, is contributing to reduced oil demand, particularly in the transportation sector [5]. - The acceleration of renewable energy adoption is evident, with renewable energy accounting for 42% of global power generation in the first half of 2025, and the cost of solar power dropping to one-third of coal power, further squeezing traditional oil demand [5]. - Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the reduced risk of blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, has contributed to the decline in oil prices [5]. Group 3: Conclusion and Outlook - The article concludes that the downward trend in oil prices is expected to become more pronounced in the near future, with the belief that the impact of oil price fluctuations on the economy will gradually diminish as favorable economic policies are implemented [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility of oil prices, with a potential slight decrease expected on July 15, amidst fluctuating international oil prices and geopolitical factors [1][2] Group 2 - International oil prices experienced significant fluctuations, initially rising over 5% due to geopolitical tensions, followed by a sharp decline due to unexpected increases in oil inventory, leading to a reassessment of energy demand [2] - The International Energy Agency's announcement of tighter global oil supply and a 35% tariff on Canadian oil provided a boost to oil prices, reversing the downward trend [2] Group 3 - Predictions for domestic oil price adjustments indicate a potential decrease of approximately 145 yuan per ton, translating to a reduction of 0.11 to 0.13 yuan per liter for gasoline [3] - The volatility in international oil prices may affect the final adjustment, with the possibility of the decrease being less than 100 yuan per ton if prices continue to rise before the adjustment [3] Group 4 - A review of the first 13 oil price adjustments in 2023 shows a mixed trend, with 6 increases and 5 decreases, leading to a cumulative reduction of only 95 yuan per ton for gasoline and 90 yuan per ton for diesel [4] - The overall trend indicates a narrowing of the price reduction despite some earlier significant decreases, with recent adjustments resulting in increased consumer costs [4] Group 5 - Regional price variations for 95 and 98 octane gasoline are noted, with higher prices in the southwest due to complex terrain and transportation costs, while the northwest benefits from lower costs due to refinery concentration [5][12] - Specific prices for 95 octane gasoline range from 7.66 yuan per liter in the northwest to 8.06 yuan per liter in the southwest, while 98 octane gasoline prices vary significantly across regions, with Guangdong reaching 10.00 yuan per liter [10][14]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic oil prices continue to rise, with gasoline and diesel prices increasing by 260 yuan/ton and 255 yuan/ton respectively, leading to a rise of 0.2-0.22 yuan/liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline [1][3] Price Adjustment Overview - The last price adjustment resulted in a consecutive increase in June, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 325 yuan and 315 yuan/ton respectively, translating to an increase of 0.25-0.28 yuan/liter [3] - In the first 12 adjustments of the year, there were 5 increases, 5 decreases, and 2 unchanged periods, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 330 yuan and 315 yuan/ton respectively [3] - The next price adjustment is scheduled for July 1, 2025, with the current cycle showing a significant increase in oil prices [3][5] Price Prediction - The current price increase is expected to exceed 50 yuan/ton, indicating a substantial rise in domestic oil prices for the upcoming adjustment [5] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the U.S. and Iran, have contributed to fluctuations in international oil prices, with recent reports indicating a drop of over 7% in oil prices due to easing tensions [5][7] - If the geopolitical situation stabilizes, there may be further opportunities for price adjustments to narrow in the upcoming cycle [7] Regional Price Data - The latest regional prices for 92 and 95 octane gasoline and 0 diesel show variations across provinces, with prices generally ranging from 7.13 to 9.95 yuan/liter for 92 octane gasoline and 7.64 to 9.79 yuan/liter for 95 octane gasoline [8]

以下是2025年5月17日的财经热点整理，涵盖金融市场、政策动态、行业动态等多个领域： --- 一、金融市场动态 1. A股市场震荡调整 - 沪指跌0.4%，深成指跌0.07%，创业板指跌0.19%，成交额缩量至1.09万亿元。物流、美容护理、保 险、白酒板块表现不佳，但个股涨多于跌，超3000只个股上涨，高位股如渝三峡A涨停。 - 黄金暴跌：COMEX黄金期货跌破3200美元/盎司，创近四个月新低，技术面支撑位在3140-3150美元， 空头趋势延续。 2. 美股与汇率市场 - 首套房首付比例降至15%，二套25%，多地成交量回升。南京6月新房认购量环比增长29.8%，二手房 成交创年内新高，价格企稳迹象初现。 - 纳斯达克指数由涨转跌，中概股如哔哩哔哩、唯品会大幅拉升，桥水基金等机构加仓中国资产。 - 美元指数震荡，人民币对美元汇率波动加剧，夜盘收报7.2103。 3. 原油与能源 - 国内油价将大幅下调，92号汽油、0号柴油进入"6元时代"，98号汽油进入"8元时代"。 - 国际油价受中美关税调整影响，中国至美国集装箱运价激增277%，美西海岸40英尺标箱费用涨至3500 美元。 --- 二、政策与经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oil prices in 2025 have experienced a significant decline, with the cumulative drop being the highest in three years, reflecting a "3 increases, 4 decreases, and 2 stasis" pattern since the beginning of the year [1] Price Adjustments - Since the start of 2025, gasoline prices have been reduced by 425 yuan per ton, and diesel prices by 410 yuan per ton, translating to a decrease of 0.34 to 0.36 yuan per liter [1] - Filling a 50-liter tank now saves consumers 17 to 18 yuan compared to the beginning of the year, and over 35 yuan compared to the peak at the end of January [1] Recent Trends - The current price adjustment cycle began on May 6, influenced by a significant drop in international oil prices during the "May Day" holiday, with a decrease exceeding 300 yuan per ton in the first five days [1] - As of May 13, the reference crude oil change rate was -6.66%, indicating an expected reduction of 290 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, equating to a decrease of 0.22 to 0.25 yuan per liter [1] Future Expectations - Despite a narrowing of the reduction in the last two days, the industry anticipates that the current round of price cuts is likely to proceed, with the expected reduction range narrowing to 250 to 280 yuan per ton, still exceeding the 50 yuan per ton threshold [1] - The 10th oil price adjustment of 2025 is set to commence on May 19, with projections indicating that the average price of 92-octane gasoline will fall below 7 yuan per liter, entering the "6 yuan era" [1] Current Pricing - The latest prices for 92, 95, and 98-octane gasoline, as well as 0-octane diesel, have been updated, with some provinces not implementing a uniform pricing policy [1]