Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The stock index is expected to rise in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward pattern in the market before the National Day holiday is low, and it is recommended to control positions [1] - Different varieties in various industries such as macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and others have different trends including oscillation, bullish, and bearish trends, with corresponding influencing factors and operation suggestions [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Long - term bullish, low probability of unilateral rise before National Day, control positions [1] - **Treasury bonds**: Oscillation, asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1] - **Gold**: Oscillation, short - term high - level strong oscillation, beware of increased volatility before National Day [1] - **Silver**: Oscillation, expected to oscillate before National Day [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Expected to rise further due to concerns about supply shortage caused by Freeport's news of production cut at the Indonesian Grasberg mine [1] - **Aluminum**: Pressured in the short - term as bulls take profits after the Fed's rate - cut decision, but limited downside due to the approaching consumption peak season [1] - **Alumina**: Fundamentals are weak with increasing production and inventory, but limited downside as the price approaches the cost line [1] - **Zinc**: Fundamental outlook improves as the production delay at Huoshaoyun reduces the expected increase this year, but high social inventory pressures the price [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term oscillation with a slightly bullish trend, pay attention to supply and macro changes, suggest short - term low - buying operations and light positions for the holiday, long - term surplus of primary nickel remains a constraint [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillation, pay attention to the progress of Indonesian nickel - ore quota approval, raw material support exists, suggest short - term operations, light positions for the holiday, and wait for high - selling hedging opportunities [1] - **Tin**: There is an expectation of improvement in the demand peak season, pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Oscillation, affected by supply resumption in the southwest and northwest, polysilicon production - cut expectation, and market sentiment [1] - **Polysilicon**: Bullish, with long - term capacity reduction expectation, increased silicon - wafer production, and unfulfilled anti - involution policy expectation [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Bullish, driven by the approaching traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and continuous inventory reduction [1] Black metals - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: Oscillation, valuation returns to neutral, unclear industrial drive, positive macro drive [1] - **Iron ore**: Oscillation, near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but there is an upward opportunity for far - month contracts due to positive commodity sentiment [1] - **Coking coal**: Oscillation, after a sharp correction, supported by pre - holiday restocking and macro - easing, but limited upward space, suggest reducing long positions [1] - **Coke**: Oscillation, similar logic to coking coal [1] - **Sintered ore fines, pellets, and lump ore**: Oscillation, short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, supply recovers while demand may weaken, high inventory [1] - **Slag wool**: Oscillation, supply surplus pressure exists, marginal improvement in peak - season demand, price is pressured [1] - **Soda ash**: Oscillation, weak reality, large supply - surplus pressure, price is pressured [1] Agricultural products - **Cotton**: Short - term wide - range oscillation, long - term pressure with the arrival of new cotton [1] - **Raw sugar**: Oscillation, high sugar - production ratio may be adjusted down, price rebounds but limited upside due to supply surplus, suggest short - selling at high levels [1] - **Corn**: Bearish, short - term C01 remains bearish under the expectation of new - grain selling pressure, pay attention to weather changes [1] - **Soybean meal**: Oscillation, short - term MO1 is expected to oscillate, pay attention to changes in the CNF spread [1] - **Pulp**: Oscillation, bottom range is emerging, but no significant bullish driver yet, focus on the cancellation volume of warehouse receipts after September delivery [1] - **Log**: Oscillation, no significant change in fundamentals, lower foreign - market quotes, firm spot price [1] - **Live pigs**: Bearish, increasing supply, limited downstream demand, futures price is higher than the spot price [1] Energy chemicals - **Crude oil**: Oscillation, affected by US inventory decline, OPEC+ second - round production increase plan, and the Fed's rate cut [1] - **Fuel oil**: Oscillation, similar factors as crude oil [1] - **Asphalt**: Oscillation, short - term following crude oil, the expectation of "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be falsified, sufficient supply of Ma瑞 crude oil [1] - **Natural rubber**: Oscillation, affected by typhoon in South China, inventory decline, and reduced warehouse receipts [1] - **BR rubber**: Oscillation, continuous production increase by OPEC, loose supply of synthetic rubber, reduced downstream transactions, pay attention to capital flow [1] - **PTA**: Bearish, domestic production recovery, falling crude - oil price, extended PX maintenance, and improved polyester profit [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Oscillation, strengthening basis, upcoming commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's device, reduced overseas arrivals but increased hedging [1] - **Short - fiber**: Oscillation, factory device recovery, weakened willingness to deliver warehouse receipts [1] - **Styrene**: Bearish, continuous inventory accumulation, increased supply after maintenance, upcoming commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's device, and increased domestic pure - benzene import pressure [1] - **Urea**: Oscillation, limited upside due to weak export and domestic demand, supported by anti - involution and cost [1] - **PF**: Oscillation, with a slightly bullish trend, rising crude - oil price, more maintenance, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1] - **PP**: Oscillation, weakening support from maintenance, less - than - expected downstream improvement, returning to fundamentals [1] - **PVC**: Oscillation, weakening due to reduced maintenance, large supply pressure, and many near - month warehouse receipts [1] - **ABS**: Bearish, unfulfilled peak - season expectation, inventory accumulation, and falling spot price [1] - **LPG**: Bearish, restricted by OPEC production increase, high domestic crude - oil inventory, weak chemical demand, and the Fed's rate cut [1] Other - **Container shipping to Europe**: There is a possibility of a low - level rebound, entering the contract - changing period, and expected to stop falling as the freight rate approaches the full - cost line [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Carbonate Lithium, Soybean Oil (medium to long - term), Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Bearish**: Asphalt, PTA, Pure Benzene, Styrene, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] - **Sideways**: Macro - finance (including stocks and bonds), Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Polysilicon, Ribbed Bar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicide, Ferrosilicon, Plate, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, BR Rubber, Urea, PP, PVC, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views - The stock index is bullish in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward pattern in the market before the National Day holiday is low, and it is recommended to control positions. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - Gold and silver prices may be strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the increased volatility risk before the National Day holiday [1]. - Copper and aluminum prices are under pressure in the short - term, but are expected to stabilize or have limited downside space due to overseas easing cycles and the arrival of the consumption season [1]. - The supply and demand situation of various industrial and agricultural products is complex, with different price trends affected by factors such as production, inventory, policy, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Stocks: Long - term bullish, low probability of unilateral rise before the National Day holiday, recommend controlling positions [1]. - Bonds: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risk warning from the central bank suppresses the upward trend [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: Short - term bullish, but need to be cautious about pre - holiday volatility [1]. - Copper: Pressured in the short - term, but expected to stabilize with overseas easing and domestic demand improvement [1]. - Aluminum: Pressured in the short - term, but limited downside space due to the arrival of the consumption season [1]. - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but limited downside space as the price approaches the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Social inventory accumulation pressures the price, and attention should be paid to policy changes [1]. - Nickel: Short - term sideways to slightly bullish, with continuous attention to supply and macro changes [1]. - Stainless Steel: Short - term sideways to slightly bullish, with attention to actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: There is an expectation of demand improvement in the peak season, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Polysilicon: Supply is recovering, with production reduction expectations and market sentiment influenced by rumors [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: Bullish due to the approaching peak season of new energy vehicles and strong energy storage demand [1]. Ferrous Metals - Ribbed Bar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore: Valuation returns to neutral, industrial driving force is unclear, and macro - driving force is positive [1]. - Manganese Silicide and Ferrosilicon: Short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery, possible demand weakening, and high inventory [1]. - Plate and Soda Ash: Supply surplus pressure exists, and prices are under pressure despite marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After a sharp correction, there is strong bottom support, but the upward space is not open, and the pre - holiday market may be sideways [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Short - term sideways adjustment, consider going long at the lower end of the sideways range [1]. - Soybean Oil: Bullish in the medium to long - term, with attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiations on the market [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: There is a de - stocking trend, and it is recommended to go long and conduct positive spreads between months [1]. - Cotton: Short - term wide - range sideways, and the market may face pressure with the listing of new cotton in the long - term [1]. - Raw Sugar: Starting to rebound, but limited upward space due to supply surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices [1]. - Corn: Bearish in the short - term due to increased supply and price pressure from deep - processing enterprises [1]. - Soybean Meal: Sideways, with weak short - term market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe carefully [1]. - Pulp: The bottom range is initially showing, but there is no bullish driving force yet, and attention should be paid to the cancellation volume of warehouse receipts after September delivery [1]. - Logs: Fundamentals have no obvious changes, with falling foreign quotes and firm spot prices, and the futures are sideways [1]. - Live Pigs: Bearish as the supply continues to increase and downstream demand is limited [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sideways, affected by factors such as US inventory, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed interest rate cuts [1]. - Asphalt: Bearish, with the falsification of demand expectations and sufficient supply of raw materials [1]. - Shanghai Rubber: Bullish in the short - term due to typhoon influence and reduced inventory [1]. - BR Rubber: Sideways, with attention to the capital side due to factors such as supply and demand and changes in warehouse receipts [1]. - PTA: Bearish, affected by factors such as production recovery, falling oil prices, and PX device maintenance delays [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Sideways, with a complex situation of supply and demand and the impact of new device production [1]. - Short - fiber: Sideways, affected by factors such as device recovery and changes in market delivery willingness [1]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: Bearish, with increasing supply and import pressure [1]. - Urea: Sideways, with limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand and support from anti -内卷 and cost [1]. - PP: Sideways, with weakening support from maintenance and less - than - expected downstream improvement [1]. - PVC: Sideways, with increased supply pressure and more near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - Caustic Soda: Bearish, with unfulfilled peak - season expectations and inventory accumulation [1]. - LPG: Bearish, affected by OPEC production increase, high domestic oil inventory, and weak chemical demand [1]. Others - Container Shipping to Europe: Sideways, with the possibility of a low - level rebound and expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].