1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Carbonate Lithium, Soybean Oil (medium to long - term), Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Bearish**: Asphalt, PTA, Pure Benzene, Styrene, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] - **Sideways**: Macro - finance (including stocks and bonds), Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Polysilicon, Ribbed Bar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicide, Ferrosilicon, Plate, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, BR Rubber, Urea, PP, PVC, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views - The stock index is bullish in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward pattern in the market before the National Day holiday is low, and it is recommended to control positions. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - Gold and silver prices may be strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the increased volatility risk before the National Day holiday [1]. - Copper and aluminum prices are under pressure in the short - term, but are expected to stabilize or have limited downside space due to overseas easing cycles and the arrival of the consumption season [1]. - The supply and demand situation of various industrial and agricultural products is complex, with different price trends affected by factors such as production, inventory, policy, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Stocks: Long - term bullish, low probability of unilateral rise before the National Day holiday, recommend controlling positions [1]. - Bonds: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risk warning from the central bank suppresses the upward trend [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: Short - term bullish, but need to be cautious about pre - holiday volatility [1]. - Copper: Pressured in the short - term, but expected to stabilize with overseas easing and domestic demand improvement [1]. - Aluminum: Pressured in the short - term, but limited downside space due to the arrival of the consumption season [1]. - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but limited downside space as the price approaches the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Social inventory accumulation pressures the price, and attention should be paid to policy changes [1]. - Nickel: Short - term sideways to slightly bullish, with continuous attention to supply and macro changes [1]. - Stainless Steel: Short - term sideways to slightly bullish, with attention to actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: There is an expectation of demand improvement in the peak season, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Polysilicon: Supply is recovering, with production reduction expectations and market sentiment influenced by rumors [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: Bullish due to the approaching peak season of new energy vehicles and strong energy storage demand [1]. Ferrous Metals - Ribbed Bar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore: Valuation returns to neutral, industrial driving force is unclear, and macro - driving force is positive [1]. - Manganese Silicide and Ferrosilicon: Short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery, possible demand weakening, and high inventory [1]. - Plate and Soda Ash: Supply surplus pressure exists, and prices are under pressure despite marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After a sharp correction, there is strong bottom support, but the upward space is not open, and the pre - holiday market may be sideways [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Short - term sideways adjustment, consider going long at the lower end of the sideways range [1]. - Soybean Oil: Bullish in the medium to long - term, with attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiations on the market [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: There is a de - stocking trend, and it is recommended to go long and conduct positive spreads between months [1]. - Cotton: Short - term wide - range sideways, and the market may face pressure with the listing of new cotton in the long - term [1]. - Raw Sugar: Starting to rebound, but limited upward space due to supply surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices [1]. - Corn: Bearish in the short - term due to increased supply and price pressure from deep - processing enterprises [1]. - Soybean Meal: Sideways, with weak short - term market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe carefully [1]. - Pulp: The bottom range is initially showing, but there is no bullish driving force yet, and attention should be paid to the cancellation volume of warehouse receipts after September delivery [1]. - Logs: Fundamentals have no obvious changes, with falling foreign quotes and firm spot prices, and the futures are sideways [1]. - Live Pigs: Bearish as the supply continues to increase and downstream demand is limited [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sideways, affected by factors such as US inventory, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed interest rate cuts [1]. - Asphalt: Bearish, with the falsification of demand expectations and sufficient supply of raw materials [1]. - Shanghai Rubber: Bullish in the short - term due to typhoon influence and reduced inventory [1]. - BR Rubber: Sideways, with attention to the capital side due to factors such as supply and demand and changes in warehouse receipts [1]. - PTA: Bearish, affected by factors such as production recovery, falling oil prices, and PX device maintenance delays [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Sideways, with a complex situation of supply and demand and the impact of new device production [1]. - Short - fiber: Sideways, affected by factors such as device recovery and changes in market delivery willingness [1]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: Bearish, with increasing supply and import pressure [1]. - Urea: Sideways, with limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand and support from anti -内卷 and cost [1]. - PP: Sideways, with weakening support from maintenance and less - than - expected downstream improvement [1]. - PVC: Sideways, with increased supply pressure and more near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - Caustic Soda: Bearish, with unfulfilled peak - season expectations and inventory accumulation [1]. - LPG: Bearish, affected by OPEC production increase, high domestic oil inventory, and weak chemical demand [1]. Others - Container Shipping to Europe: Sideways, with the possibility of a low - level rebound and expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, individual product ratings are as follows: - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Carbonate Lithium [1] - **Bearish**: Ethanol, Pig [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Cotton, Raw Sugar, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Log, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, PE, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe Line [1] 2. Core Views - **Macro - Financial**: The long - term outlook for stock indices is bullish, but the probability of a unilateral up - trend before the National Day holiday is low. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - **Precious Metals**: A weaker US dollar boosts gold and silver prices, and they may perform strongly in the short term [1]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: While the Fed's interest rate cut has put pressure on copper and aluminum prices, factors such as overseas easing cycles, improved domestic downstream demand, and positive short - term sentiment are expected to stabilize copper prices. The decline in aluminum prices is limited due to the approaching consumption peak season. Alumina's fundamentals are weak, but its price is close to the cost line, so the downside is limited. Zinc prices are under pressure due to increasing social inventories. Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and policy changes. Tin may present low - buying opportunities during the peak demand season [1]. - **Black Metals**: The valuation of rebar and hot - rolled coil has returned to neutral, with unclear industrial drivers and positive macro - drivers. Iron ore has upward potential in the far - month contracts. Coke and coking coal prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances. The supply of steel products is still excessive, and although there is marginal improvement in peak - season demand, prices are under pressure [1]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil may be bought at the lower end of the oscillation range. Soybean oil is expected to reduce inventory in the fourth quarter and is bullish in the long - term. Rapeseed oil is recommended for buying and calendar spread trading. Domestic cotton prices may oscillate widely in the short term and face pressure in the long - term with the new cotton harvest. Raw sugar prices are rebounding but have limited upside due to oversupply. Soybean meal may oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices have a slightly upward - moving center of gravity. PTA basis has declined rapidly, and ethylene glycol is bearish. Short - fiber and styrene may oscillate. PE, PVC, and LPG prices are under pressure, and the container shipping to Europe line may stop falling and stabilize [1]. 3. Summary by Product Category Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, but low probability of unilateral up - trend before the National Day holiday, recommend controlling positions [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central bank warns of interest rate risks, suppressing the upside [1] Precious Metals - **Gold**: A weaker US dollar boosts prices, expected to be strong in the short term [1] - **Silver**: Price rebounds driven by market sentiment, expected to be strong in the short term [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's interest rate cut puts pressure, but expected to stabilize due to overseas easing and domestic demand [1] - **Aluminum**: Interest rate cut causes pressure, but limited downside in the consumption peak season [1] - **Alumina**: Fundamentals are weak, but limited downside as price approaches cost line [1] - **Zinc**: Increasing social inventories put pressure on prices [1] - **Nickel**: May oscillate in the short term, focus on supply and macro changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: May oscillate in the short term, recommend short - term trading and light positions for the holiday [1] - **Tin**: May present low - buying opportunities during the peak demand season [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is bullish due to supply and policy expectations [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Valuation returns to neutral, industrial drivers are unclear, macro - drivers are positive [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Supply - demand imbalance, prices are under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term oscillation adjustment, consider buying at the lower end of the range [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to reduce inventory in the fourth quarter, long - term bullish [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recommended for buying and calendar spread trading due to supply shortage and peak season [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term wide - range oscillation, long - term pressure with new cotton harvest [1] - **Raw Sugar**: Prices are rebounding but have limited upside due to oversupply [1] - **Soybean Meal**: May oscillate in the short term [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Price center of gravity moves slightly upward [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Affected by typhoon and inventory changes [1] - **BR Rubber**: Pay attention to capital flow due to supply and spread changes [1] - **PTA**: Basis declines rapidly due to production recovery and other factors [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish due to new production and hedging pressure [1] - **Short Fiber**: Factory production recovers, market delivery willingness weakens [1] - **Styrene**: Supply increases, may oscillate with limited upside and cost support [1] - **PE**: May oscillate weakly as the market returns to fundamentals [1] - **PVC**: Oscillates weakly due to supply pressure and high near - month warehouse receipts [1] - **LPG**: Upward momentum is restricted by production increase and high inventory [1] - **Container Shipping to Europe Line**: May stop falling and stabilize as prices approach cost [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Bullish in the short - term, suggest tilting towards IF or IH to reduce risk [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Limited upside due to short - term central bank interest rate risk warning, but asset shortage and weak economy are favorable [1] - **Gold**: Bullish due to safe - haven demand and interest rate cut expectations [1] - **Silver**: Bullish, following gold with stronger elasticity [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to be strong due to Fed interest rate cut expectations and potential supply tightness [1] - **Aluminum**: Trading in a range, affected by domestic consumption off - season and Fed interest rate cut expectations [1] - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals, but look for long - position opportunities in far - month contracts [1] - **Zinc**: Limited downside, be cautious about short - selling [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term rebound with macro factors, long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading in a range, look for selling - hedging opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Stronger in the short - term with improved macro sentiment [1] - **Silicon for Mining**: Bearish due to supply resumption and hedging pressure [1] - **Polysilicon**: Bearish with capacity reduction expectations and low terminal installation willingness [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Trading in a range, neutral valuation, unclear industrial drivers, positive macro drivers [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Trading in a range, neutral valuation, unclear industrial drivers, positive macro drivers [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish, long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals [1] - **Coke**: Bearish, long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals [1] - **Glass**: Bearish, supply surplus pressure persists [1] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish, supply surplus pressure is large, price under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Hold off on new positions, expect short - term consolidation [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Hold off on new positions, similar logic to palm oil [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Hold off on new positions, affected by ICE rapeseed price and trade policies [1] - **Cotton**: Bullish in the short - term, pay attention to time window and quota release [1] - **Sugar**: Bullish but with limited upside, pay attention to the 5600 - 6000 range [1] - **Corn**: Expected to trade at a low level in the short - term, pay attention to new grain listing [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Limited downside, expected to trade in a range [1] - **Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 calendar spread [1] - **Logs**: Expected to trade in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [1] - **Hogs**: Bearish due to increasing supply and decreasing cost [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trading in a range, affected by Indian procurement, OPEC+ production, and tariff issues [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Trading in a range, similar factors as crude oil [1] - **Asphalt**: Short - term following crude oil, long - term demand may be overestimated [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Affected by rainfall, inventory, and market sentiment [1] - **BR Rubber**: Pay attention to inventory and autumn maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Bearish due to production recovery and downstream maintenance expectations [1] - **Short - fiber**: Affected by industry reform rumors, supply and demand changes [1] - **Styrene**: Affected by industry reform rumors and market trading volume [1] - **PE**: Price oscillating weakly, affected by export, domestic demand, and cost [2] - **PVC**: Trading in a range, affected by maintenance, orders, and inventory [2] - **Olefins**: Driven by market rumors and supply - demand changes [2] - **FEI**: Rebound due to multiple factors, pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation [2] - **US Freight**: Supply exceeds demand, freight rate declining [2] 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various industries and commodities. In general, the macro - financial environment has a significant impact on the market. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations, asset shortage, and weak economic conditions are important factors affecting the prices of financial and commodity assets. For different industries, factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, inventory, and market sentiment all play crucial roles in determining price trends. Some commodities are expected to be strong due to positive factors like supply tightness or increased demand, while others face downward pressure because of oversupply, weak demand, or policy - related risks [1][2]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - financial Industry The overall macro - financial environment is complex. The stock index is supported by sufficient market liquidity, while treasury bonds are affected by both favorable long - term factors and short - term interest rate risk warnings. Precious metals are driven by safe - haven demand and interest rate cut expectations [1] Non - ferrous Metals Industry Supply and demand dynamics, along with macro - economic factors and geopolitical events (such as labor unrest in Indonesia), are the main drivers of non - ferrous metal prices. Some metals are expected to be strong due to supply concerns or positive macro sentiment, while others face challenges from oversupply or weak domestic demand [1] Black Metals Industry The black metals industry is facing supply - demand imbalances, with high inventory levels and weak demand in some segments. Anti - involution is a long - term issue, and the market is trying to balance supply and demand by adjusting prices [1] Agricultural Products Industry Prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as seasonality, international trade policies, and supply - demand relationships. Some products are expected to be strong in the long - term but may experience short - term corrections, while others are trading in a range or facing downward pressure [1] Energy and Chemicals Industry The energy and chemicals industry is influenced by global supply - demand dynamics, production capacity changes, and market rumors. Crude oil prices are affected by OPEC+ production decisions and international trade issues, while chemical products are affected by factors such as production recovery, inventory changes, and industry reform rumors [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Copper, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Logs [1] - **Bearish**: PVC Pipe, Galvanized Pipe, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Live Pigs [1] - **Sideways**: Aluminium, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Cotton Yarn, Paper Pulp, Asphalt, Styrene, PTA, Naphtha, Short Fiber, Urea, PF, PVC, PG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Report's Core View - After the continuous strong and volume - increasing rise of stock index futures, capital flow amplifies market volatility. With the approaching of key macro - event nodes in September, the index is expected to fluctuate more, and it is recommended to moderately reduce positions and adjust the layout to be mainly long [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - Multiple factors drive the prices of different commodities. For example, the expectation of Fed rate cuts and supply - demand situations affect metal prices; seasonal factors, production, and consumption situations influence agricultural product prices; and supply - demand, policy, and geopolitical factors impact energy and chemical product prices [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index futures may experience increased volatility in September, and it is advisable to reduce positions and focus on long positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy favor bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold is boosted by safe - haven demand and rate - cut expectations [1]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper is expected to be strong due to Fed rate - cut expectations and tight supply [1]. - Aluminium prices are volatile under domestic consumption off - season and Fed rate - cut expectations [1]. - Alumina has weak fundamentals, but there are opportunities to go long in the far - month contracts [1]. - Zinc prices have limited downside, and short - selling should be cautious [1]. - Nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by macro - sentiment, Fed rate - cut expectations, and supply - demand in the short term [1]. - Tin prices are trending well in the short term due to seasonal maintenance and improved macro - sentiment [1]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore have neutral valuations, unclear industrial drivers, and warm macro - drivers [1]. - PVC pipe and galvanized pipe are bearish due to long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals, and high inventory [1]. - Glass and soda ash are under pressure due to supply surplus [1]. - Coking coal and coke have weakening fundamentals and are expected to be weak [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean oil is re - priced due to factors such as reduced soybean arrivals, consumption season, and trade flow [1]. - Rapeseed oil prices are supported by reduced production and supply - reduction expectations [1]. - Cotton has a near - month squeeze logic, and the 01 contract has limited upside [1]. - Sugar is running strongly but with limited height [1]. - Corn is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and new - grain listing should be monitored [1]. - MO1 has limited downside due to import - cost support [1]. - Paper pulp's 11 - 1 reverse spread can be considered [1]. - Logs are expected to oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan/m³ [1]. - Live pigs are bearish due to increased supply and reduced cost [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil are affected by factors such as India's procurement change, OPEC+ production increase, and tariff issues [1]. - Asphalt's short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent and follows crude oil [1]. - Styrene is affected by rainfall, cost, and inventory factors [1]. - PTA's production has recovered, and profits have been repaired [1]. - Naphtha and related products are affected by industry reform and supply - demand changes [1]. - Short fiber has increased factory maintenance and growing warehouse receipts [1]. - Urea has limited upside and cost - end support [1]. - PF and PVC are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - PG is affected by multiple factors such as capacity reduction, trade, and supply - demand [1]. - Container shipping European Line's freight rate is expected to decline [1].

Report Overview - The report provides daily strategy references and analyzes various industries and commodities, including macro finance, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers trend judgments and trading suggestions for each product. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - As the key nodes of domestic and international macro - events in September approach, the stock index is expected to experience increased volatility. It is recommended to moderately reduce positions and adjust the layout to be mainly long - oriented [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The probability of a September interest rate cut remains high, providing short - term support for gold prices [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: After continuous strong and volume - increasing rises, market volatility is amplified by rapid capital flow. With the approaching of September's macro - event nodes, volatility is expected to intensify. Suggest reducing positions moderately and adjusting to a long - biased layout [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central bank interest rate risk warnings suppress the upward space, showing a volatile trend [1]. - **Gold**: The high probability of a September interest rate cut supports gold prices in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Market risk appetite cools down, and silver prices may fluctuate [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Recent market sentiment is volatile, and copper prices are oscillating [1]. - **Aluminum**: In the domestic consumption off - season, downstream demand is under pressure, and aluminum prices are weak. For alumina, production and inventory are both increasing, with a weak fundamental situation. There is an opportunity to lay out long positions in the far - month contracts [1]. - **Zinc**: Short - term macro sentiment has improved, and zinc prices have rebounded, but the domestic fundamental pressure is still large, and the upward space may be limited [1]. - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment is volatile. Nickel prices follow the macro trend in the short term. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and look for opportunities to sell on rallies. In the long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Raw material prices have risen, and social inventories are stable. After profit repair, steel mills are resuming production. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and wait for opportunities to sell on rallies. The cash - and - carry arbitrage can gradually take profits [1]. - **Tin**: Powell's dovish remarks improve macro sentiment and boost tin prices. The short - term supply and demand are both weak. Attention should be paid to the expected seasonal maintenance of Yunnan smelters [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply in the southwest and northwest is resuming, and there is high hedging pressure. The market sentiment is strong. There is an expectation of long - term capacity reduction, low terminal installation willingness, and considerable profits [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Resource - end disturbances occur frequently. Downstream short - term replenishment is large, but the subsequent replenishment space is limited [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term macro sentiment has improved, and the price has rebounded, but the domestic fundamental pressure is still large, and the upward space may be limited [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: Valuations have returned to neutral, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the macro - driving force is positive, showing a volatile trend [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The "anti - involution" is long - term, and it follows the black metal sector in the short term [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: They follow the black metal sector in the short term. The "anti - involution" is long - term. The reality is weak, and the market returns to trading fundamentals, with the near - term being weak and the far - term being strong [1]. - **Glass**: The reality is weak, expectations have declined, and prices are moving downward [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Steel inventory is accumulating faster than the seasonal norm. The market suppresses steel prices to balance supply and demand. Coke and coking coal fundamentals are weakening marginally and are expected to be volatile and weak [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's low inventory and high export quotes, along with the main consumption countries' peak - season stocking and the long - term "strong expectation" of B50 implementation, are positive factors. The less - than - expected exemption from the US for small refineries is seen as a "bad news is out" situation [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is an expectation of reduced soybean arrivals, a fourth - quarter consumption peak season, and an open export trade flow, leading to a fourth - quarter de - stocking expectation. USDA's August reduction of new - crop area and Sino - US trade relations support the price from the raw material cost side [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Russian and Ukrainian rapeseed production has decreased, and sunflower seed production in the Black Sea region has also fallen short of expectations. The Ministry of Commerce's initial ruling on Canadian rapeseed dumping and increased customs duty deposit requirements are expected to reduce subsequent rapeseed supply. The risk lies in the possible alleviation of the rapeseed shortage through Australian rapeseed imports [1]. - **Cotton**: Cotton has increased in volume in the short term, with the near - month squeezing - the - shorts logic dominating. The height of the 01 contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the time window from late July to early August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas [1]. - **Sugar**: Raw sugar has rebounded with a bottom divergence, combined with peak - season demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5600 - 6000, with limited upward space [1]. - **Corn**: The supply of remaining grain is tightening, but downstream feed enterprises adopt a low - inventory strategy, and deep - processing losses drag down corn demand. Under the expectation of new - season selling pressure, the futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Sino - US peace - talk expectations and domestic reserve sales are negative for the soybean meal market. The import cost provides support, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to Sino - US policy changes [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The outer - market quotation has increased. The 11 - contract is under pressure due to old positions. Consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Log Futures**: Near the delivery, the current price is within the range of receiving and delivery costs, with a reasonable valuation. It is expected to oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The near - month contract is weak due to spot influence. In the second half of the year, as the inventory gradually recovers, attention should be paid to weight reduction and consumption. The 11 and 01 contracts have peak - season expectations [1]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Factors such as India reducing Russian oil purchases, OPEC+ continuing to increase production, and Trump's tariff increase on India cause demand concerns. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil trend [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the crude oil trend. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Domestic产区 rainfall affects raw material cost support. Inventory depletion is slow. As the commodity approaches the 09 - contract delivery, the short - term market sentiment turns bearish [1]. - **BR Rubber**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the crude oil fundamental situation is loose. The BR market is consolidating and rising steadily. Attention should be paid to the inventory levels of butadiene and BR9000 and the autumn maintenance of butadiene rubber plants [1]. - **PTA**: Domestic PTA plants are gradually resuming production, and production has increased. The spread between PX and naphtha has widened. With improved sales and inventory depletion, especially in filament inventory, profits have been significantly repaired. However, some downstream plants have strong maintenance expectations [1]. - **PE**: Export sentiment has eased slightly, and domestic demand is insufficient, limiting the upward space. There is support from "anti - involution" and the cost side. With a warm macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is oscillating weakly [1][2]. - **Short - Fiber**: More short - fiber factories are undergoing maintenance. Under the situation of high basis and rising costs, the number of futures market warehouse receipts is gradually increasing [1]. - **Styrene**: There are rumors of a major reform in the domestic petrochemical and refining industries, and South Korean naphtha cracking plants plan to reduce production. As the market strengthens, trading volume gradually weakens [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Index Futures, Polysilicon [1] - Bearish: Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel [1] - Volatile: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Alumina, Nickel, Industrial Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, HK, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, PE, PVC, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - The market's reaction to negative news in the stock index has become dull, with strong trading volume and sentiment. The market's willingness to allocate equity assets has increased, and short - term index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to various factors such as the strength of the US dollar and market uncertainties [1]. - Copper prices may fall due to US inflation rebound and potential copper tariff implementation [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to weaken due to high prices suppressing demand and inventory accumulation [1]. - Alumina prices have stabilized and rebounded due to supply - side reform expectations [1]. - Zinc prices are under pressure, and short - selling opportunities should be watched for [1]. - Nickel prices are volatile, and short - term short - selling and long - term supply pressure should be considered [1]. - Tin prices have short - term support but may decline in the long term [1]. - The prices of various industrial and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, showing different trends of rise, fall, or fluctuation [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Index Futures: The market's reaction to negative news is dull, trading volume and sentiment are strong. With the "asset shell" situation and "national team" support, the market's willingness to allocate equity assets has increased. Short - term index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1] Precious Metals - Gold: Market uncertainties exist, and gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] - Silver: The strengthening of the US dollar may suppress silver prices, and silver prices are expected to fluctuate [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: US inflation rebound and potential copper tariff implementation may lead to a decline in copper prices [1] - Aluminum: High prices suppress demand, inventory accumulates, and aluminum prices are expected to weaken [1] - Alumina: Supply - side reform expectations have led to price stabilization and rebound [1] - Zinc: Prices are under pressure, and short - selling opportunities should be watched for [1] - Nickel: Prices are volatile, and short - term short - selling and long - term supply pressure should be considered [1] - Stainless Steel: Futures prices are volatile, and short - selling hedging and positive basis trading opportunities should be grasped [1] - Tin: Short - term support exists, but prices may decline in the long term [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand factors co - exist, and the market has high sentiment [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Supply and demand factors lead to price fluctuations [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: Supported by strong furnace materials, prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - Iron Ore: Market sentiment is good, but fundamentals are weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - Glass: Short - term support exists, but medium - term over - supply may limit price increases [1] - Soda Ash: Supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: Due to market expectations, short - selling should be avoided in the short term, and positive basis trading opportunities should be grasped [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: MPOB monthly report is neutral to bearish, and wait for a callback to buy the 01 contract [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The entry of Australian rapeseed may have a negative impact on prices in the short term [1] - Cotton: Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and price trends are affected by factors such as crude oil prices [1] - Corn: CO9 is expected to fluctuate, and C01 is recommended to short at high prices [1] - Soybean Meal: MO1 is supported, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, OPEC+ production, and seasonal consumption, prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - HK: Downstream demand is weakening, supply is expected to increase, and inventory is increasing slightly [1] - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are under pressure, but there is some support from device maintenance [1] - PTA: Supply has shrunk, but crude oil is strong. Polyester downstream load remains high, and market supply is becoming more abundant [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Coal prices have risen slightly, and there are factors of supply increase and decrease [1] - Short Fiber: Warehouse receipt registration is low, and cost follows closely [1] - Styrene: Device load has increased, and the basis has weakened [1] - PE: Macro - sentiment has subsided, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - PVC: Affected by factors such as coking coal prices and seasonal demand, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - Chlor - Alkali: Maintenance is coming to an end, and attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine [1] - LPG: Affected by factors such as crude oil prices and seasonal demand, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: The freight rate is expected to show an arc - top trend, and the peak time is advanced [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, PP, BR rubber, PTA, PG, log [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, treasury bond, silver, steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon), non - ferrous metals (except those mentioned above), agricultural products (cotton, corn, soybean meal, pulp, pig), energy - chemical products (except those mentioned above) [1] 2. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand relationships. Different industries and varieties show different trends due to these factors. For example, the strong US non - farm payrolls data has affected the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, which in turn impacts the prices of metals and other commodities. Geopolitical situations like the cooling of the Middle East situation and OPEC+ production decisions also play crucial roles in the energy market [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume is gradually shrinking slightly, and domestic and foreign positive factors are limited. There is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: The strong June non - farm payrolls data suppresses the interest - rate cut expectation, which may put downward pressure on the gold price. However, uncertainties in tariff policies and tax - reform bills support the gold price [1] - **Silver**: With tariff uncertainties remaining, the silver price is expected to mainly oscillate [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US non - farm payrolls data far exceeding expectations suppresses the interest - rate cut expectation, and the overseas squeeze - out risk has cooled down. There is a risk of copper price correction [1] - **Aluminum**: The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and high prices suppressing downstream demand lead to a risk of aluminum price decline [1] - **Alumina**: The US non - farm payrolls data far exceeding expectations suppresses the interest - rate cut expectation, and the alumina price may run weakly [1] - **Zinc**: The US non - farm payrolls data exceeding expectations and continuous zinc inventory accumulation lead to a risk of zinc price decline [1] - **Nickel**: The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The slight downward adjustment of the Indonesian nickel - ore premium makes the nickel price rebound weak. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After the "anti - involution" in China boosts sentiment, pay attention to tariff progress. Raw material prices are weakening, social inventory is slightly decreasing, and steel - mill production - cut news boosts confidence. The sustainability of the stainless - steel's oscillating rebound remains to be observed [1] - **Tin**: Under the "anti - involution", the glass and photovoltaic industries have production - cut expectations, and the new demand for tin is damaged. In the short term, the supply - demand is weak on both sides, and there is a risk of tin price decline under weak macro - sentiment [1] - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of photovoltaic supply - side reform in the market, and market sentiment is high [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is no production cut on the supply side. Downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and factory purchases are not active. There is capital gaming [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Individual regional steel mills have short - term production - cut behaviors. Temporarily wait and see for digestion [1] - **Iron Ore**: Steel - mill production - cut behaviors suppress the upward space, but short - term high demand provides support below [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term production increases, demand is okay, supply - demand is relatively loose, cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Production increases slightly, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1] - **Coking Coal**: The high - level meeting mentioned "anti - involution", and the market expects a bull market similar to the 2015 supply - side reform. Although it cannot be compared in all aspects, since it cannot be falsified in the short - term trading, short positions on the futures market should be temporarily avoided. Industrial customers should grasp the opportunity of premium to establish cash - and - carry positions [1] - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, focus on selling hedging opportunities when the futures price has a premium [1] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro - uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream products, but the inventory pressure is not large. The domestic cotton price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to run weakly in the later period, it may affect Brazil's new - season sugar - making ratio through the sugar - alcohol price ratio, resulting in higher - than - expected sugar production [1] - **Corn**: Before the new grain is on the market, the supply of old - crop grain is tightening, and the spot price is expected to be firm. The upward pressure on the futures price comes from wheat substitution and policy - based grain releases. The C2509 contract may mainly oscillate. Pay attention to the wheat - corn price difference and subsequent policy - based grain releases [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Under the domestic inventory - accumulation pressure, the basis is under pressure. There is an expectation of a tightening supply - demand balance sheet for US soybeans. In the short term, pay attention to the progress of the Sino - US trade agreement. If no agreement is reached, there is an expectation of inventory reduction for soybean meal in the fourth quarter, and the center of the far - month contract is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the US soybean price is expected to rise, the premium to fall, and the overall decline space of the futures price is limited [1] - **Pulp**: The overseas pulp price quotation has decreased, the shipping volume has increased, and domestic demand is weak. Currently, the valuation is low, and there are also macro - positive factors [1] - **Pig**: With the continuous recovery of pig inventory, the slaughter weight is continuously increasing. The expectation of sufficient inventory in the futures market is obvious, and the futures price has a large discount to the spot price. In the short term, the spot price is less affected by slaughter, and the overall decline is limited, so the futures price remains stable [1] Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The Middle East geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the market has returned to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the Middle East geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the market has returned to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected [1] - **Asphalt**: It is affected by cost - side drag, the possible increase in consumption - tax rebates in Shandong, and slow demand recovery [1] - **PP**: Downstream demand shows a weakening trend, the supply - side production release expectation is strong, and inventory has increased slightly [1] - **BR Rubber**: OPEC has increased production more than expected, the synthetic - rubber fundamentals are under pressure, the high basis persists, and the futures price is expected to remain weak in the short term. Pay attention to subsequent price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and synthetic - rubber inventory reduction progress [1] - **PTA**: The crude - oil market has fallen sharply, and the chemical industry has followed the decline. The downstream polyester load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction. In July, bottle - chip and staple - fiber are about to enter the maintenance period. The PTA spot supply is becoming looser, the market spot arrival volume has increased, and due to profit compression, the polyester replenishment willingness is not high [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The macro - sentiment has improved significantly, and the chemical industry has followed the crude - oil price down. The later arrival volume is large. The concentrated procurement due to the improvement of polyester sales has a certain impact on the market, and it is expected that ethane will reach the expected level smoothly [1] - **Staple Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is small. Under the high - basis situation, the cost is closely followed, and short - fiber factories have maintenance plans [1] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Market speculative demand has weakened, the benzene - ethylene plant load has recovered, the holding of benzene - ethylene is concentrated, and the benzene - ethylene basis has weakened significantly [1] - **PVC**: The "anti - involution" policy is positive for the spot market. Maintenance is about to end, new devices are put into operation, the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and supply pressure is rising. The futures price oscillates strongly [1] - **PG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both been lowered. OPEC has increased production more than expected. It is the seasonal off - season for LPG combustion and chemical demand, and the spot price decline is slow, so there is still room for the PG price to fall [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach the peak in mid - to - early July, showing an arc - shaped peak in July and August, with the peak time advancing. There will be sufficient shipping capacity deployment in the following weeks [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum [1] - Bearish: Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Polysilicon, Carbonate Lithium, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Coking Coal, Coke [1] - Neutral: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Glass, Soda Ash, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Gasoline, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, PVC, Calcined Anthracite, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term stock index is expected to show a weak and volatile pattern due to weak domestic fundamentals, a policy vacuum, and high overseas uncertainties. However, the decline space is limited under the background of "asset shortage" and "national team" support [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [1]. - The prices of various metals and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, geopolitical situations, and policy changes, showing different trends [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with limited decline space. Bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the upward space is suppressed by interest rate risk warnings [1]. Precious Metals - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to Middle East uncertainties. Silver prices are mainly volatile due to the game between macro and fundamentals [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may remain high and volatile as copper inventories are expected to decline further. Aluminum prices are strong due to low inventory levels. Alumina prices are volatile, with the spot price falling and the futures price under pressure from increased production. Zinc prices face upward pressure, and nickel prices are weakly volatile in the short term and pressured by long - term over - supply [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are in a window of switching from peak to off - peak seasons, with no upward driving force. Iron ore prices are affected by the expected peak of molten iron and supply increments in June. Coke and coking coal prices are bearish [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. Corn prices are expected to be volatile, and soybean meal prices are expected to be volatile with different trends for different contracts. Cotton prices are expected to be weakly volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil's impact on related products is complex. Products such as gasoline, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, consumption seasons, and inventory levels. Chemical products like PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber are affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [1].