中信建投（601066）发布研报称，维持汇丰控股(00005)"买入"评级和银行板块首推，目标价120港元。 该行预计2025-2027年营收增速(剔除重大项目，下同)分别为0%、1.4%、3.5%，归母净利润增速7.0%、 2.0%、3.0%。在日趋碎片化、割裂化的全球化2.0时代，汇丰在重点区域布局广阔，是国际产业链重构 大环境中的核心受益银行，同时还受益于亚洲富裕零售客群资产全球配置的大趋势。汇丰高ROTE+高 股息优势明确，配置价值显著。 汇丰控股本次私有化恒生银行，一方面直接提高集团整体盈利能力，另一方面继续精简组织架构、加强 业务协同效率，以应对香港银行业日益激烈的竞争环境，提升汇丰把握香港增长机遇的能力。溢价30% 收购也突出了汇丰对香港区域业务的重视和恒生银行品牌价值的看好，同时确保私有化提案能够顺利完 成。私有化对汇丰财务上的影响为一次性压低汇丰核心一级资本充足率125bps，但ROTE、EPS、DPS 因利润提高和净资产下降有小幅上升。为更快地推动CET1回到合意区间，汇丰暂停三个季度回购，未 来或将加速营收增长以强化资本内生。尽管回购暂缓，但预计2026年股东回报分红+回购率仍保持在8% ...

汇丰控股本次私有化恒生银行，一方面直接提高集团整体盈利能力，另一方面继续精简组织架构、加强 业务协同效率，以应对香港银行业日益激烈的竞争环境，提升汇丰把握香港增长机遇的能力。溢价30% 收购也突出了汇丰对香港区域业务的重视和恒生银行品牌价值的看好，同时确保私有化提案能够顺利完 成。私有化对汇丰财务上的影响为一次性压低汇丰核心一级资本充足率125bps，但ROTE、EPS、DPS 因利润提高和净资产下降有小幅上升。为更快地推动CET1回到合意区间，汇丰暂停三个季度回购，未 来或将加速营收增长以强化资本内生。尽管回购暂缓，但预计2026年股东回报分红+回购率仍保持在8% 以上。以10月9日收盘价计算，2025年全年分红+回购股东综合回报率为8.7%，其中现金股息率为 5.0%。26年全年分红+回购股东综合回报率为8.0%，其中现金股息率为5.8%，红利价值依旧显著。 智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，维持汇丰控股(00005)"买入"评级和银行板块首推，目标价 120港元。该行预计2025-2027年营收增速(剔除重大项目，下同)分别为0%、1.4%、3.5%，归母净利润增 速7.0%、2.0%、3.0%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - On August 15, Standard Chartered Group faced allegations of illegal "money laundering" from a U.S. congresswoman, leading to significant fluctuations in its London stock price. This case has been repeatedly dismissed by U.S. courts since 2019, indicating that the allegations lack merit and will not impact Standard Chartered [1][9]. Event Summary - On August 15, U.S. Congresswoman Elise Stefanik accused Standard Chartered of making illegal payments to known terrorists and evading sanctions, criticizing New York Attorney General Letitia James for inaction. This news caused Standard Chartered's stock to drop by 7.2% on the London Stock Exchange [1][2]. Background Analysis - The allegations stem from a 2012 case regarding illegal payments to terrorists, which was dismissed by U.S. courts in 2019. The case involved former executives submitting data to the U.S. government, leading to a Deferred Prosecution Agreement (DPA) and a $300 million fine. The DPA was extended multiple times, with the last extension ending in 2021 [2][3][4]. Political Context - The renewed allegations may be driven by personal and political motives, as the whistleblower system in the U.S. allows for financial rewards for successful claims. The timing of the allegations coincides with the impending end of the lawsuit period on August 19, suggesting a final attempt to gain attention. The congresswoman's affiliation with the Republican Party may also indicate a political strategy to criticize her Democratic counterpart [4]. Market Reaction - Following the allegations, Standard Chartered's stock price fell by 7.2%, but the company quickly issued a clarification, which led to a recovery in the stock price, narrowing the decline to 0.7% by the end of the trading day. This indicates that the market recognized the misjudgment caused by the allegations [5][6]. Financial Performance - Standard Chartered's financial outlook remains strong, with stable net interest income, robust non-interest income, and excellent asset quality. The return on tangible equity (ROTE) is expected to improve further, with projections for revenue growth of 5.2% to 5.5% and profit growth of 15.7% to 15.8% from 2025 to 2027 [7][9]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term benefits for Standard Chartered from the restructuring of international supply chains and global wealth allocation remain intact. The bank is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, supported by its extensive global network and integrated service offerings [8]. Investment Recommendation - Given the strong fundamentals and the current undervaluation of Standard Chartered, it is recommended to consider this as a buying opportunity, especially if the stock experiences further declines due to market reactions to the allegations [9].

Core Viewpoints - After excluding the significant impact of the impairment from the Bank of Communications, HSBC's Q2 revenue and profit significantly exceeded expectations, indicating a robust underlying trend [1][2][17] - The impairment is a one-time disturbance and will not affect dividend amounts or capital [1][4][17] Financial Performance - HSBC's Q2 2025 revenue, after excluding significant items, was $17.657 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, surpassing market expectations [1][3] - The net profit after tax for Q2 2025 was $7.707 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, also exceeding market consensus [1][3][4] - The non-performing loan ratio decreased by 5 basis points to 2.41% in Q2 2025 [1] Income Breakdown - Net interest income was $10.714 billion, a year-on-year decline of 2%, but the decline is narrowing and exceeded market expectations [3][9] - Non-interest income continued to grow strongly, with a year-on-year increase of 20%, surpassing market expectations by 12 percentage points [3][8] - Wealth management and transaction banking non-interest income grew by 23% and 6% respectively [3][8] Cost Management - Credit costs slightly increased but remain manageable, with a guidance adjustment to 40 basis points due to pressures in Hong Kong's commercial real estate [4][13] - Operating costs were controlled effectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9% after excluding significant items, which is lower than revenue growth [4][15] Future Outlook - HSBC maintains its guidance for 2025 net interest income at $42 billion, with expectations for stable loan growth and limited impact from Hibor fluctuations [5][9] - The bank's return on tangible equity (ROTE) is expected to remain around 15%, supported by strong non-interest income and effective cost management [6][17] - The bank plans to continue its strategy of divesting non-core businesses to enhance focus on global transaction banking and wealth management [15][17] Dividend and Share Buyback - HSBC declared a dividend of $0.10 per share for Q2 2025, with a total cash return of $0.22 per share [1][6] - The bank announced a $3 billion share buyback, maintaining its commitment to shareholder returns [6][16] Strategic Positioning - HSBC is positioned as a key beneficiary of the restructuring of international supply chains and the global allocation of wealth by affluent Asian residents [1][18] - The bank's strong ROTE and high dividend yield present significant investment value [1][18]

机构：中信建投证券 研究员：马鲲鹏/李晨 核心观点 渣打企业及机构业务（CIB）中长期目标积极：部门营收增长CAGR 达到5%-7%，RoRWA 继续提升。 客户上进一步聚焦跨境大客户和金融机构，客户经营的市场越多、使用的产品越多，收入会翻倍增长。 当前关税造成的不确定性状态最终结果可能是一个更加复杂、更加碎片化的世界，但不可能是一个全球 所有国家都脱钩的世界。国际产业链再平衡、再布局、"中国+1"的供应链新格局是长周期大趋势，而渣 打是国际产业链重构大环境中的核心受益银行。全球贸易和金融市场业务量的稳定持续增长能够支持企 业及机构业务收入保持当前较好趋势。叠加财富管理双位数增长，渣打能够游刃有余的达成自身业绩指 引，且仍有进一步超预期空间。 事件 5 月15 日，渣打集团开展企业及机构业务（CIB）投资者活动日；介绍集团企业及机构业务目标和各条 线具体情况及竞争优势。 简评 1、渣打企业及机构业务中长期目标积极：进一步聚焦跨境大客户和金融机构，部门营收增长CAGR 达 到5%-7%，RoRWA 继续提升。 公司在本次开放日中对未来企业及机构业务的中长期发展提出了明确的目标：1）企业及机构业务 （CIB）营收 ...