国际农产品贸易
Search documents
五矿期货农产品早报-20250929
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 01:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, due to high domestic supply pressure, sufficient ship purchases, high soybean inventory, and no clear positive factors in cost, combined with Argentina's temporary cancellation of export tax, it may trigger a short - term decline. In the medium - term, with global soybean supply being loose, the general direction is to sell on rebounds, but the market will mainly fluctuate in a range because of low US soybean valuation and uncertainties in South American planting and weather [2][3]. - **Oils and Fats**: Supported by low inventory in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, limited palm oil production increase potential in Southeast Asia, and the expected decline in Indonesia's export volume due to growing biodiesel consumption. Currently, the market is in a state of balanced or slightly loose supply and demand in reality but expected to be tight in the future. In the medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. With high current valuation, the strategy is to buy after a stable decline [8]. - **Sugar**: Affected by record - high domestic imports in August and a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the overall sugar price trend is bearish. Technically, short - term factors are not conducive to further decline, so it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [11]. - **Cotton**: Although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the downstream industry's startup rate is growing weakly, and there is an expectation of a good harvest in the new year, causing the cotton price to decline. However, the current low domestic cotton inventory and price may provide support. With both bullish and bearish factors, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [15]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is expected to decline. The near - term futures market is weak, while the far - term market is relatively strong due to the expected marginal improvement in supply - demand and capital game. The supply side has potential for marginal improvement, and the demand side has many uncertainties. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - term contracts after a decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The group farms' seasonal supply recovery exceeds expectations, and weak demand slows down the slaughter progress. Coupled with panic selling by retail farmers, the spot price may decline faster. The futures market is expected to be weak in the short - term. The strategy is to short the near - term contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks and using selling options to deal with potential volatility decline [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **Market Information**: On Friday, US soybeans fluctuated. Argentina's price - cut sales ended, and the market focused on new - crop production. Last week, domestic soybean meal trading was average, with good pick - up at first but a significant decline at the end of the week. Last week, 2.27 million tons of soybeans were crushed, and this week, 1.76 million tons are expected to be crushed. Argentina has cancelled the export tax after achieving its export target, but it still has a great impact on the international soybean meal market. Brazilian premiums are temporarily stable. The cost of imported soybeans is supported by low US soybean valuation, Sino - US trade relations, and the Brazilian planting season, but also faces pressure from global protein raw material oversupply and potential short - term oversupply if Sino - US relations ease [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, it may decline; in the medium - term, it will mainly fluctuate in a range [3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, but increased by 2.6% in the first 15 days, 8.7% in the first 20 days, and 11.3% - 12.9% in the first 25 days. Its production decreased by 3.17% in the first 10 days, 8.05% in the first 15 days, 7.89% in the first 20 days, and 4.14% in the first 25 days compared to the same period last month. In July 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports decreased from 3.606 million tons in June to 3.537 million tons, production increased from 5.289 million tons to 5.606 million tons, inventory increased from 2.53 million tons to 2.568 million tons, and domestic consumption decreased from 2.072 million tons to 2.034 million tons. Analysts predict that global palm oil and soybean oil prices will rise from January to June 2026 due to tight supply and potential increased biodiesel consumption in the US, Brazil, and Indonesia [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term, and the strategy is to buy after a stable decline [8]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rose first and then fell. The closing price of the January contract was 5478 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in various regions remained stable. StoneX predicted that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season may reach 620.5 million tons, a 3.6% year - on - year increase, and sugar production will reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase. As of the week of September 24, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 85 to 76, and the sugar volume waiting to be loaded decreased from 3.2827 million tons to 3.1039 million tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall trend is bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [11]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated weakly. The closing price of the January contract was 13405 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton or 0.82% from the previous trading day. The spot price also decreased slightly. As of the week of September 26, the spinning mill's startup rate was 66.6%, down 5.8 percentage points from the same period last year and 10.44 percentage points from the five - year average; the weaving mill's startup rate was 37.8%, down 15.8 percentage points from the same period last year and 16.66 percentage points from the five - year average. Cotton commercial inventory was 1.03 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from the same period last year and 0.35 million tons from the five - year average. As of September 18, the cumulative export contract volume of US cotton in the 2025/26 season was 0.9465 million tons, down 0.19 million tons year - on - year, and the cumulative export contract volume to China was 0.0168 million tons, down 0.0907 million tons year - on - year and 0.3728 million tons from the five - year average [13][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With both bullish and bearish factors, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mainly stable with slight declines in some areas. The market supply is sufficient due to high inventory of laying hens and cold - stored eggs. With the approaching festival, risk - control sentiment increases, but pre - festival small - batch stocking provides some support, so the price is expected to stabilize after a slight decline [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - term contracts after a decline [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices fluctuated slightly, mainly declining with slight increases in some areas. Some farmers were waiting and seeing, while others sold at a reduced price due to sales pressure, and a few farmers tried to support the price. It is expected that today's pig prices will be stable or increase [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short the near - term contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks and using selling options to deal with potential volatility decline [21].
Dole(DOLE) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-08-11 13:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group revenue increased by 14.3% to $2.4 billion, and adjusted EBITDA rose by 9.3% to $137 million [4][12] - Adjusted net income was $53 million, with adjusted diluted EPS at $0.55, reflecting a 12% growth compared to the prior year [5][14] - Operating income increased by 20% to $103 million, driven by higher revenue and gross profit [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fresh Fruit segment achieved adjusted EBITDA of $72.7 million, with strong volume growth in bananas and pineapples, although constrained by higher sourcing costs due to tropical storm Sarah [6][14] - Diversified EMEA segment saw adjusted EBITDA increase by approximately 15% to $49 million, driven by strong revenue growth in key markets [9][10] - Diversified Americas segment reported revenue growth of 8.5%, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 27%, primarily due to strong performance in Southern Hemisphere exports [11][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In North America, strong volume growth was noted in bananas and pineapples, with higher pricing contributing to revenue increases [6][14] - The European market experienced higher volumes and pricing across products, supported by tight sourcing conditions and a strengthening euro [7][10] - Industry supply was tighter than anticipated, impacting sourcing costs and overall market dynamics [8][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The sale of the fresh vegetable division was completed, allowing the company to focus on core business activities and strategic priorities [5][21] - The company is optimistic about internal and external development opportunities, particularly in fresh produce and diversified EMEA [54] - The company plans to maintain capital expenditures in line with depreciation and invest in rehabilitation projects following tropical storm damage [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the diversified business model despite short-term disruptions in the macroeconomic environment [20] - The company has adjusted its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance upwards to a range of $380 million to $390 million [20] - Management acknowledged the complexity of forecasting in the current environment, particularly regarding supply chain disruptions and tariff impacts [28][42] Other Important Information - The company declared a dividend of $0.85 for the second quarter, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders [19] - Cash capital expenditure from continuing operations was $19.4 million, with additional investments in logistics and infrastructure [17][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Reconciliation of updated EBITDA outlook - Management noted strong performance in 2024 but highlighted challenges from weather issues and sourcing costs impacting EBITDA guidance [24][26] Question: Impact of tariffs on pricing - Management explained the complexity of pricing adjustments due to various factors, including tariffs, sourcing issues, and foreign exchange volatility [30][34] Question: Fresh vegetables disposal and debt repayment - Management confirmed that proceeds from the fresh vegetable division sale would primarily be used for debt repayment and to clarify strategic focus [35][36] Question: Supply outlook beyond Q3 - Management indicated that while supply disruptions would continue into Q4, the industry typically stabilizes quickly [41][43] Question: Discussions on tariff exclusions - Management stated that they believe in the benefits of international trade and have seen some positive discussions regarding tariff exemptions for products not grown in the U.S. [44][46] Question: Future development opportunities - Management highlighted ongoing evaluations of acquisition opportunities and internal projects across various regions [52][54]