2025.10.20-10.24 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于震荡整理的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第41周油厂大豆实际压榨量128.93万吨，开机率为 35.99%，豆粕库存107.91万吨。国内大豆到港维持高位，豆粕库存持续 处于百万吨以上。需求端受养殖利润低迷影响，饲料企业多按需补库， 新增动力有限。叠加全球大豆供应宽松，整体压制价格上行空间。但需 关注对美船舶征收特别港务费政策可能推升进口成本，进而影响四季度 到港节奏。综合来看，豆粕期货处于震荡整理的阶段。 2 关注中美贸易进展及南美天气。 中线策略建议 3 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于下行通道,资金方面较为偏空。M2601 短期内或将处于震荡整理的阶段，预计运行区间：2880- 3050。 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于下行通道,资金方面略微偏空。M2601短 期内或将延续震荡整理的格局，预计运行区间：2800-3000。 品种诊断情况 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, due to high domestic supply pressure, sufficient ship purchases, high soybean inventory, and no clear positive factors in cost, combined with Argentina's temporary cancellation of export tax, it may trigger a short - term decline. In the medium - term, with global soybean supply being loose, the general direction is to sell on rebounds, but the market will mainly fluctuate in a range because of low US soybean valuation and uncertainties in South American planting and weather [2][3]. - **Oils and Fats**: Supported by low inventory in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, limited palm oil production increase potential in Southeast Asia, and the expected decline in Indonesia's export volume due to growing biodiesel consumption. Currently, the market is in a state of balanced or slightly loose supply and demand in reality but expected to be tight in the future. In the medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. With high current valuation, the strategy is to buy after a stable decline [8]. - **Sugar**: Affected by record - high domestic imports in August and a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the overall sugar price trend is bearish. Technically, short - term factors are not conducive to further decline, so it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [11]. - **Cotton**: Although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the downstream industry's startup rate is growing weakly, and there is an expectation of a good harvest in the new year, causing the cotton price to decline. However, the current low domestic cotton inventory and price may provide support. With both bullish and bearish factors, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [15]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is expected to decline. The near - term futures market is weak, while the far - term market is relatively strong due to the expected marginal improvement in supply - demand and capital game. The supply side has potential for marginal improvement, and the demand side has many uncertainties. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - term contracts after a decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The group farms' seasonal supply recovery exceeds expectations, and weak demand slows down the slaughter progress. Coupled with panic selling by retail farmers, the spot price may decline faster. The futures market is expected to be weak in the short - term. The strategy is to short the near - term contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks and using selling options to deal with potential volatility decline [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **Market Information**: On Friday, US soybeans fluctuated. Argentina's price - cut sales ended, and the market focused on new - crop production. Last week, domestic soybean meal trading was average, with good pick - up at first but a significant decline at the end of the week. Last week, 2.27 million tons of soybeans were crushed, and this week, 1.76 million tons are expected to be crushed. Argentina has cancelled the export tax after achieving its export target, but it still has a great impact on the international soybean meal market. Brazilian premiums are temporarily stable. The cost of imported soybeans is supported by low US soybean valuation, Sino - US trade relations, and the Brazilian planting season, but also faces pressure from global protein raw material oversupply and potential short - term oversupply if Sino - US relations ease [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, it may decline; in the medium - term, it will mainly fluctuate in a range [3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, but increased by 2.6% in the first 15 days, 8.7% in the first 20 days, and 11.3% - 12.9% in the first 25 days. Its production decreased by 3.17% in the first 10 days, 8.05% in the first 15 days, 7.89% in the first 20 days, and 4.14% in the first 25 days compared to the same period last month. In July 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports decreased from 3.606 million tons in June to 3.537 million tons, production increased from 5.289 million tons to 5.606 million tons, inventory increased from 2.53 million tons to 2.568 million tons, and domestic consumption decreased from 2.072 million tons to 2.034 million tons. Analysts predict that global palm oil and soybean oil prices will rise from January to June 2026 due to tight supply and potential increased biodiesel consumption in the US, Brazil, and Indonesia [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term, and the strategy is to buy after a stable decline [8]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rose first and then fell. The closing price of the January contract was 5478 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in various regions remained stable. StoneX predicted that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season may reach 620.5 million tons, a 3.6% year - on - year increase, and sugar production will reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase. As of the week of September 24, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 85 to 76, and the sugar volume waiting to be loaded decreased from 3.2827 million tons to 3.1039 million tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall trend is bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [11]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated weakly. The closing price of the January contract was 13405 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton or 0.82% from the previous trading day. The spot price also decreased slightly. As of the week of September 26, the spinning mill's startup rate was 66.6%, down 5.8 percentage points from the same period last year and 10.44 percentage points from the five - year average; the weaving mill's startup rate was 37.8%, down 15.8 percentage points from the same period last year and 16.66 percentage points from the five - year average. Cotton commercial inventory was 1.03 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from the same period last year and 0.35 million tons from the five - year average. As of September 18, the cumulative export contract volume of US cotton in the 2025/26 season was 0.9465 million tons, down 0.19 million tons year - on - year, and the cumulative export contract volume to China was 0.0168 million tons, down 0.0907 million tons year - on - year and 0.3728 million tons from the five - year average [13][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With both bullish and bearish factors, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mainly stable with slight declines in some areas. The market supply is sufficient due to high inventory of laying hens and cold - stored eggs. With the approaching festival, risk - control sentiment increases, but pre - festival small - batch stocking provides some support, so the price is expected to stabilize after a slight decline [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - term contracts after a decline [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices fluctuated slightly, mainly declining with slight increases in some areas. Some farmers were waiting and seeing, while others sold at a reduced price due to sales pressure, and a few farmers tried to support the price. It is expected that today's pig prices will be stable or increase [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short the near - term contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks and using selling options to deal with potential volatility decline [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, it is recommended to focus on short - term trading for soybean meal and rapeseed meal. For soybean meal, pay attention to the results of crop inspections as there are rumors that US soybeans may enter China through state reserves. For rapeseed meal, focus on the changes in China - Australia and China - Canada trade flows due to restricted imports of Canadian rapeseed in the future [45]. - In the medium - to long - term, the global soybean supply is abundant, limiting the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex [46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The closing prices of most futures main contracts in the feed and livestock industry decreased last week. For example, the M2601 soybean meal contract closed at 3113 yuan on August 21, down 50 yuan from August 13, a decrease of 1.58%. The RM601 rapeseed meal contract closed at 2561 yuan, down 127 yuan, a decrease of 4.72%. The C2511 corn contract closed at 2166 yuan, down 113 yuan, a decrease of 4.96%. The LH2511 live pig contract closed at 13765 yuan, down 280 yuan, a decrease of 1.99%. The JD2510 egg contract closed at 3010 yuan, down 267 yuan, a decrease of 8.15% [4]. - The spot prices of some varieties remained unchanged, while others decreased. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 3020 yuan, unchanged from the previous week. The average price of rapeseed meal in China was 2580 yuan, down 70 yuan, a decrease of 2.64%. The price of second - grade national standard corn with 14.5% moisture at Bayuquan Port was 2310 yuan, unchanged. The average slaughter price of commercial pigs in Henan was 13.6 yuan, down 0.14 yuan, a decrease of 1.02%. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 3.19 yuan, up 0.12 yuan, an increase of 3.91% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost Side - Weather: From August 24 to 28, the temperature in the main soybean - producing states in the US was lower than normal, and precipitation was mostly close to or higher than the median [10]. - US Soybeans: On the last day of the Pro Farmer crop inspection, inspectors reported that the corn yield potential and soybean pod number in Iowa reached the highest level in at least 22 years. As of August 17, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, in line with market expectations and the previous week, and the same as the same period in 2024 [10]. - Brazil: The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in August 2025 would be 8.8 million tons, higher than the previous week's estimate of 8.15 million tons. If the forecast comes true, it will be a 10.3% increase from 7.98 million tons in August 2024, but lower than the 12 million tons in July this year. The total soybean exports in the first eight months of this year will reach 88.55 million tons [10]. - Argentina: The Argentine Ministry of Agriculture said that the pace of soybean sales in Argentina was basically stable last week. As of August 13, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 29.51 million tons of soybeans for the 2024/25 season, 820,000 tons more than the previous week, compared with 25.64 million tons in the same period in 2024 [10]. 3.2.2 Supply - Import: In July 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record 16.7 million tons. Imports from Brazil increased significantly, accounting for 89% of the total imports, reaching 10.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. Imports from the US were only 420,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%. Imports from Argentina were 560,000 tons in July, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 670,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 104.7% [10]. 3.2.3 Demand - Pressing: As of the end of the 33rd week (August 16), the average operating rate of domestic oil mills was 64.64%, an increase of 2.08% from the previous week. The total soybean pressing volume of national oil mills was 2.4168 million tons, an increase of 77,900 tons from the previous week. The pressing volume of domestic soybeans was 10,500 tons, and that of imported soybeans was 2.4063 million tons [10]. - Transaction: The transaction volume of soybean meal continued to recover, but the transaction price declined slightly. On August 21, the transaction volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 149,950 tons, an increase of 38,450 tons from the previous day. The spot transaction volume was 45,950 tons, a decrease of 19,550 tons from the previous day. The basis transaction volume was 104,000 tons, an increase of 58,000 tons from the previous day. The average transaction price was 3085.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.22 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Oil Mill Inventory: The National Grain and Oil Information Center predicted on August 20 that the operating rate in August would remain at a high level, with the soybean pressing volume close to 10 million tons and the soybean meal output around 8 million tons, higher than the average of the past three years. The average monthly consumption in August was 7.7 million tons. However, due to the accelerated downstream pick - up speed, the inventory accumulation rhythm of oil mills had slowed down. It was expected that the commercial inventory of soybean meal in major national oil mills would rise to around 1.1 million tons in August, and the inventory pressure on oil mills was relatively high [10]. 3.3 Supply - side Analysis 3.3.1 Import - As of August 21, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 488.00 US dollars/ton. The CNF price of US West Coast soybeans was 457.00 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton from the previous week [15][18]. 3.3.2 Pressing - As of the week of August 21, the soybean pressing profit was 190.90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.80 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of August 15, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.4227 million tons, an increase of 63,700 tons from the previous week. As of August 15, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 62%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous week [24]. 3.4 Inventory - side Analysis - As of August 21, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 6.8832 million tons, an increase of 50,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory was at a low level in the past five years. As of August 15, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 974,000 tons, an increase of 13,100 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory of domestic mainstream oil mills was at a medium level in the past five years [27]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - As of August 8, the average daily transaction volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 84,500 tons, a decrease of 416,200 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it was at a relatively low level in the past five years [30]. 3.6 Pig - side Supply and Demand - Not provided in the content 3.7 Pig - side Slaughter and Breeding Profit - Not provided in the content 3.8 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Focus on short - term trading for soybean meal and rapeseed meal. Pay attention to the results of crop inspections for soybean meal and the changes in China - Australia and China - Canada trade flows for rapeseed meal [45]. - Medium - to long - term: Due to the abundant global soybean supply, the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex is limited [46]. 3.9 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - Focus on the weather in producing areas, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The global soybean supply is abundant, and the prices of the three major oils are fluctuating. Brazil's soybean harvest is confirmed, the weather in US soybean - growing areas is favorable with a high good - rate, and the future weather risk is low, leading to a strong overall harvest expectation. The supply side will gradually face pressure [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8708.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan or 0.46% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8012.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.00 yuan or 0.23%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9404.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan or 0.21% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8740.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan or 0.34%, with a spot basis of P09 + 32.00, an increase of 10.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8160.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.00 yuan/ton or 0.25%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 148.00, an increase of 2.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9520.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan or 0.31%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 116.00, a decrease of 10.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: As of July 13, the EU's 2025/26 soybean imports were 340,597 tons, compared to 495,953 tons in the same period last year; the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 63,393 tons, compared to 116,181 tons in the same period last year. From July 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 621,770 tons (ITS data), a 6.16% decrease from the same period last month, and 574,121 tons (Amspec data), a 5.29% decrease from the same period last month. As of July 15, the national soybean oil port inventory was 932,000 tons, a 24,000 - ton increase from the previous week; as of July 14, the national imported soybean port inventory was 646,277 tons, a 9,908 - ton increase from July 7 [2] Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a neutral stance [3]