国际原油价格走势

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今晚过后成品油价将迎年内第四涨,加满一箱油将多花2.5元
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-03 09:20
本轮调价后,全国大多数地区车柴价格将升至6.7元-6.9元/升,92号汽油零售价升至7.1元-7.2元/升。 国家发改委官网6月3日消息,即日24时起,国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别上调65元、60元。至此,国内成品油价格现已经历十一轮调整,呈现"四涨五跌两搁 浅"格局。 涨跌互抵后,年内汽、柴油价格整体分别较2024年底下跌590元/吨、570元/吨。 据隆众资讯测算,本次调价对应的92号汽油、95号汽油、0号柴油每升均将上调0.05元。全国大多数地区柴油价格将小幅升至6.7元-6.9元/升,92号汽油零售 价升至7.1元-7.2元/升。 本轮计价周期内,国际原油价格走势窄幅回落后再度上涨。金联创分析师马建彩表示,首先石油输出国组织欧佩克+(OPEC+)讨论7月再次大规模增产, 加剧市场对供应过剩的担忧,市场权衡贸易局势缓和叠加OPEC+增产前景,国际油价走势震荡下行。但随后,OPEC+暂时维持产量政策不变,以及美国石 油协会原油库存减少,国际油价走势小幅上涨。进入调价周期末期,俄乌冲突再度升温导致潜在供应风险显现,叠加美国夏季出行高峰来临、传统旺季释放 利好,国际油价大幅回涨。 下一次调价窗口将在6月17日24 ...
供应端压力增加原油价格反弹空间料有限
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-05-13 21:49
Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices have rebounded significantly since hitting new lows on May 5, with Brent crude reaching a high of $66.4 per barrel and WTI crude hitting $63.61 per barrel, marking increases of 13.50% and 15.03% respectively [1][2]. Price Movement - As of May 12, Brent and WTI crude oil prices reached their highest levels since the beginning of May, following a notable rebound from the lows recorded on May 5 [1][2]. - By May 13, prices adjusted slightly, with Brent at $65.01 per barrel and WTI at $62.03 per barrel, indicating a volatile market despite recent gains [2]. Influencing Factors - The rebound in oil prices is attributed to two main factors: a marginal easing of macroeconomic expectations and the U.S. Treasury's addition of entities related to Iranian oil to its sanctions list, raising supply concerns [2]. - Market sentiment has been influenced by the perception that the negative impact of OPEC+'s accelerated production increases has been priced in, alongside expectations of improved macroeconomic conditions [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The Brent crude futures curve has exhibited a "smile" shape, indicating a divergence in near-term and long-term market expectations, with near-term prices supported by low inventories and seasonal demand, while long-term prices are pressured by anticipated increases in OPEC+ production [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the current market is characterized by a "strong reality, weak expectation" scenario, where immediate supply-demand dynamics are favorable, but future expectations are clouded by potential oversupply [3][4]. Future Outlook - Short-term projections indicate that oil prices may face downward pressure as OPEC+ begins to increase production significantly in May, amidst a backdrop of weak demand [4][5]. - The medium to long-term outlook suggests that oil prices will likely remain within a defined range, influenced by OPEC+ production policies and market sentiment, with limited upside potential unless significant positive developments occur in macroeconomic or geopolitical contexts [5].