三、下一次调价展望与影响因素 油价又降了！12月92号汽油跌至6.7元/升，山东6元多，加满一箱省35元，新年首调周期国际油价回升，3天预估涨近100元/吨，WTI原油58美元。全年25次 调整"12跌7涨"，年末三连降后，1月6日或变脸，车主叹：刚省的钱，怕是要"飞"了。 一、年末调价概况与当前油价 本周一晚间进行了2025年最后一次成品油调价，整体呈现小幅下行，此次调整后，95号汽油多数地区降至约7.18元/升，92号普遍低于6.70元/升，0号柴油接 近6.38元/升。 调价结果已在各地加油站和官方价目表中更新，便于车主参考，新一轮计价周期已开启，短期内油价有可能重新走高，消费者不宜过分乐观。 二、短期国际走势对国内的传导 本轮国内价格实现回落，国际原油价格在随后的统计期内持续上扬，导致国内口径下出现连续上涨的信号。 按照现行的调价规则，近期国际油价变化已将调价弹性推高至约95元/吨，换算到零售端相当于每升涨幅约0.07—0.09元，即便个别时点如WTI和布伦特出现 微跌，整体三日上行的态势使得下一次国内调整偏向上行。 新一轮窗口位于2026年1月6日24时，目前仅计入了部分工作日的数据，若未来几日国际 ...

Core Insights - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to increase due to a predicted rise in international crude oil prices, with an estimated increase of over 50 yuan/ton [1] - The current pricing cycle shows a positive change rate of 2.82%, leading to anticipated increases of 125 yuan/ton for gasoline and 120 yuan/ton for diesel, translating to a rise of 0.10 yuan/liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1] Price Adjustments - Since 2025, there have been 21 rounds of adjustments in domestic refined oil retail prices, resulting in six increases, nine decreases, and six instances of no change, with prices down by 745 yuan/ton for gasoline and 715 yuan/ton for diesel compared to the end of last year [2][3] - The specific price adjustments for gasoline and diesel from January to October 2025 show significant fluctuations, with the highest increase of 340 yuan/ton for gasoline and the largest decrease of 480 yuan/ton [3] Market Trends - Recent data indicates a decline in wholesale prices for 92 gasoline and 0 diesel, with average prices at 7325 yuan/ton and 6456 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting a decrease of 2.51% and 0.38% [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the current weak international crude oil market and insufficient demand in the gasoline market are contributing to the price declines, while diesel prices are somewhat supported by seasonal demand [5] Future Outlook - The crude oil market is experiencing fluctuating sentiments, with Brent crude oil prices oscillating between 63 to 65 USD/barrel, indicating a need to monitor the support level at 63 USD/barrel closely [5] - Potential upward risks in the crude oil market are primarily linked to geopolitical issues, although fundamental pressures have not yet eased significantly [5]

Group 1 - The recent adjustment in fuel prices has led to an increase in diesel prices to 6.7-6.9 yuan per liter and 92 gasoline prices to 7.1-7.2 yuan per liter across most regions in China [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a price increase of 65 yuan per ton for gasoline and 60 yuan per ton for diesel, marking the eleventh round of adjustments this year, with a pattern of "four increases, five decreases, and two hold-offs" [1] - After the adjustments, the overall prices of gasoline and diesel have decreased by 590 yuan per ton and 570 yuan per ton respectively compared to the end of 2024 [1] Group 2 - The international crude oil prices experienced a narrow decline followed by a rebound during the pricing cycle, influenced by OPEC+'s discussions on potential large-scale production increases and concerns over supply surplus [3] - The upcoming pricing window on June 17 is expected to show a slight upward trend in refined oil prices based on current international crude oil price levels [3] - Despite OPEC+ maintaining significant production increases in June and July, the traditional peak season for fuel consumption in the U.S. and uncertainties surrounding the Russia-Ukraine and U.S.-Iran situations are expected to provide support for international oil prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices have rebounded significantly since hitting new lows on May 5, with Brent crude reaching a high of $66.4 per barrel and WTI crude hitting $63.61 per barrel, marking increases of 13.50% and 15.03% respectively [1][2]. Price Movement - As of May 12, Brent and WTI crude oil prices reached their highest levels since the beginning of May, following a notable rebound from the lows recorded on May 5 [1][2]. - By May 13, prices adjusted slightly, with Brent at $65.01 per barrel and WTI at $62.03 per barrel, indicating a volatile market despite recent gains [2]. Influencing Factors - The rebound in oil prices is attributed to two main factors: a marginal easing of macroeconomic expectations and the U.S. Treasury's addition of entities related to Iranian oil to its sanctions list, raising supply concerns [2]. - Market sentiment has been influenced by the perception that the negative impact of OPEC+'s accelerated production increases has been priced in, alongside expectations of improved macroeconomic conditions [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The Brent crude futures curve has exhibited a "smile" shape, indicating a divergence in near-term and long-term market expectations, with near-term prices supported by low inventories and seasonal demand, while long-term prices are pressured by anticipated increases in OPEC+ production [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the current market is characterized by a "strong reality, weak expectation" scenario, where immediate supply-demand dynamics are favorable, but future expectations are clouded by potential oversupply [3][4]. Future Outlook - Short-term projections indicate that oil prices may face downward pressure as OPEC+ begins to increase production significantly in May, amidst a backdrop of weak demand [4][5]. - The medium to long-term outlook suggests that oil prices will likely remain within a defined range, influenced by OPEC+ production policies and market sentiment, with limited upside potential unless significant positive developments occur in macroeconomic or geopolitical contexts [5].