（责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 格隆汇9月22日｜卓创资讯：本计价周期以来(2025年9月9日24时至2025年9月23日24时)，国际原油价格 呈偏强区间波动，受此影响，国内参考的原油变化率由负转正但低位运行，第9个工作日计算后的调整 幅度在25元/吨，未达国家发改委50元/吨的调价红线。距离调价窗口还有一个工作日，卓创资讯预计明 日(9月23日)24时，国内成品油调价搁浅概率较大。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Group 1 - The international crude oil prices have shown a strong fluctuation within a range during the pricing cycle from September 9, 2025, to September 23, 2025 [1] - As a result, the domestic reference crude oil change rate has shifted from negative to positive but remains at a low level, with an adjustment magnitude of 25 yuan/ton calculated on the 9th working day [1] - The adjustment amount has not reached the National Development and Reform Commission's price adjustment threshold of 50 yuan/ton, indicating a potential for no price change [1] Group 2 - There is one working day left until the price adjustment window, and according to Zhaochuang Information, the probability of domestic refined oil price adjustment being shelved is relatively high as of September 23, 2025, at 24:00 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on August 26, with expectations for a decrease, marking the seventh adjustment of the year, ending two consecutive rounds of stasis [1]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Expectations - Analysts from Zhuochuang Information and Jinlianchuang indicate that the international crude oil market lacks strong positive signals, leading to a sustained negative change rate for crude oil prices, which is expected to result in a decrease in retail prices for refined oil [1][3]. - As of August 22, the reference crude oil change rate was -4.41%, with anticipated reductions of 190 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to price drops of 0.15 yuan and 0.16 yuan per liter respectively [1][2]. - If the current round of price adjustments is implemented, the total price changes for gasoline and diesel since the beginning of the year would be a decrease of 225 yuan and 215 yuan per ton respectively [1]. Group 2: Historical Price Adjustment Summary - In 2025, there have been a total of sixteen price adjustment windows, resulting in six increases, six decreases, and four stasis periods [2]. - The next round of retail price adjustments is scheduled for September 9 at 24:00, following the "ten working days" principle [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that OPEC+ will maintain a significant production increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September, while geopolitical uncertainties and sanctions on certain oil-producing countries may pose potential supply risks [3]. - Despite seasonal demand boosts from summer travel in the U.S., overall demand outlook remains pessimistic due to weak global economic data, leading to expectations that the next round of refined oil price adjustments may remain unchanged [3].

按照成品油调价时间表，8月26日24时，国内成品油零售限价将迎来新一轮调整时间窗口。 机构跟踪的最新国际原油价格变动状况预测数据显示，本轮成品油零售限价下调幅度远超50元/吨的红 线要求，预计本轮成品油零售限价大概率将下调。 | | 2025年以来发改委成品油调价幅度汇总(单位:元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | 日期 | 汽油 | 柴油 | | 上调 | 1月2日24时 | 70 | 70 | | | 1月16日24时 | 340 | 325 | | | 4月2日24时 | 230 | 220 | | | 6月3日24时 | 65 | 60 | | | 6月17日24时 | 260 | 255 | | | 7月1日24时 | 235 | 225 | | 下调 | 2月19日24时 | -170 | -160 | | | 3月5日24时 | -135 | -130 | | | 3月19日24时 | -280 | -270 | | | 4月17日24时 | -480 | -465 | | | 5月19日24时 | -230 | -220 | | | 7月15日 ...

智通财经记者 | 田鹤琪 国内成品油价迎年内第四次搁浅。 8月12日，国家发改委发布消息称，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制，本次国内汽、柴 油价格（标准品）不作调整。相关价格联动及补贴政策按现行规定执行。价格执行时间自今日24时起。 据卓创资讯监测模型显示，截至8月11日收盘，国内第10个工作日参考原油变化率0.06%，预计汽柴油上调5元/吨。因本 周期内原油变化率对应的汽柴油零售限价调整幅度不足50元/吨，因此8月12日24时国内汽柴油零售限价调整面临搁浅。 本轮是2025年第十六次调价，也是今年的第四次搁浅。本次调价过后，2025年成品油调价将呈现"六涨六跌四搁浅"的格 局。 此外，叠加美国与欧洲某国和谈，导致油价再度下跌，基本回吐本计价周期因欧洲某国可能受制裁影响的涨幅。因此国 内参考的原油变化率在正值范围内持续回落，对应的成品油零售限价上调幅度持续缩减。 截至北京时间8月12日凌晨，WTI即月原油期货收涨0.36%，报63.87美元/桶；布伦特即月原油期货收涨0.12%，报66.4美 元/桶。 图片来源：隆众资讯 下一轮成品油价存在下调概率。 隆众资讯原油分析师李彦对智通财经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decision by the National Development and Reform Commission regarding domestic fuel prices, indicating no adjustments due to recent international oil price fluctuations. The overall trend for fuel prices in 2025 shows a decrease compared to the end of 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices remain unchanged, following a pattern of "six increases, six decreases, and three stasis" in 2025 [1]. - Year-to-date, gasoline and diesel prices have decreased by 225 yuan/ton and 215 yuan/ton, respectively, compared to the end of 2024 [1]. - The current retail prices for 92-octane gasoline and diesel are expected to remain between 7.4-7.5 yuan/liter and 7-7.2 yuan/liter, respectively [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - International oil prices have shown narrow fluctuations, with OPEC+ expected to maintain significant production increases in the upcoming months [2]. - The demand side is supported by the ongoing summer travel peak in the U.S., which traditionally boosts fuel demand [2]. - Despite a new trade agreement between the U.S., Japan, and the EU easing some market concerns, uncertainties related to U.S. tariffs continue to affect global economic and demand outlooks [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The next price adjustment window is set to open on August 12, with expectations of a potential decrease in fuel prices due to OPEC+'s production strategies and a generally calming geopolitical situation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that there will be no adjustment to domestic refined oil prices during the latest pricing window, despite fluctuations in international oil prices [1] Pricing Mechanism - Since the last adjustment on July 15, the average price of refined oil for the first ten working days leading up to July 29 showed a price change of less than 50 yuan per ton, which does not meet the threshold for a price adjustment according to the current pricing mechanism [1] - The prices for gasoline and diesel will remain at the levels set in the previous adjustment, with Beijing's 92-octane gasoline priced at 7.26 yuan per liter, 95-octane gasoline at 7.73 yuan per liter, and 0-octane diesel at 6.95 yuan per liter [1] Adjustment History - This marks the fifteenth pricing adjustment of the year, with three instances of price suspension. The overall trend for this year has been characterized by "six increases, six decreases, and three suspensions" [1] - The next pricing window will open at 24:00 on August 12 [1] Market Outlook - Analysts from Longzhong Information predict a higher probability of price increases in the next round of adjustments due to potential supply risks from the U.S. shortening the deadline for new sanctions on Russia, ongoing traditional fuel consumption peaks in the U.S., and eased concerns over tariffs following an agreement between the U.S. and the EU [1]

分析机构称，后市OPEC+仍将维持较大增产力度，地缘局势整体也趋于缓和，且美国关税问题依然存在一定不确定性，预计下一轮成品油调价下调的概率 较大。 国家发改委官网7月29日发布消息，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制，本次国内汽、柴油价格不作调整。 至此，国内成品油价格现已经历十五轮调整，呈现"六涨六跌三搁浅"格局。涨跌互抵后，年内汽、柴油价格整体分别较2024年底下跌225元/吨、215元/吨。 由于上一轮成品油价刚经历了一波下调，每升92号汽油、95号汽油、0号柴油分别下调0.1元、0.1元、0.11元，本次调价搁浅，意味着全国大多数地区车柴价 格将继续维持7元-7.2元/升，92号汽油零售价7.4元-7.5元/升的水平。 本轮计价周期内，国际原油价格窄幅波动。隆众资讯介绍，从供应端来看，石油输出国组织OPEC+将在8月初举行新一轮会议，预计9月仍将维持较大增产 力度，且9月可能提前完成220万桶/日的原定增产计划。 下一次调价窗口将在8月12日24时开启。隆众资讯表示，展望后市，OPEC+仍将维持较大增产力度，地缘局势整体也趋于缓和，且美国关税问题依然存在一 定不确定性，预计下一轮 ...

Group 1 - Domestic refined oil price adjustment is expected to be suspended, with the new adjustment window opening on July 29. This year, there have been fourteen rounds of price adjustments, resulting in six increases, six decreases, and two suspensions. After adjustments, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices have decreased by 225 yuan and 215 yuan per ton compared to the end of last year. If this round is suspended, the adjustment pattern will change to six increases, six decreases, and three suspensions by 2025 [1] Group 2 - A total of 347.52 billion yuan in market value of restricted stocks will be unlocked today, with 13 companies having a total of 5.65 billion shares released. Four companies have more than 10 million shares unlocked, with Huada Jiutian, Xinghuo Technology, and Changrun Co., Ltd. leading in terms of unlocked shares at 281 million, 146 million, and 110 million shares respectively. In terms of market value, Huada Jiutian, Changrun Co., Ltd., and Xinghuo Technology have the highest unlocked values at 30.899 billion yuan, 1.856 billion yuan, and 1.184 billion yuan respectively [4]

④ 21:00 美国5月S&P/CS20座大城市未季调房价指数年率 ⑤ 22:00 美国6月JOLTs职位空缺 ⑥ 22:00 美国7月谘商会消费者信心指数 ⑦ 次日04:30 美国至7月25日当周API原油库存 相关链接 今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2025年7月29日 周二 ① 待定 国内成品油开启新一轮调价窗口 ② 16:30 英国6月央行抵押贷款许可 ③ 21:00 美国5月FHFA房价指数月率 ...