"十四五"这五年，可以说是极不寻常、极不平凡。对于我国外贸领域来说，面临着不少压力，正如商务 部相关负责人在近日国新办新闻发布会上所言，"至少可以用'风高浪急'来形容"。即便如此，我们的外 贸依然出现逆势增长，如何做到的？ 为期5天的链博会即将闭幕，102家中外企业和机构，与链博会承办单位中国国际展览中心集团有限公司 现场签署了第四届链博会参展意向。签约企业普遍认为，经过三年的精心培育，链博会国际化水平不断 提升、影响力持续增强，已经成为举世瞩目的国际经贸盛会和全球共享的国际公共产品。 第三个关键字是"韧"，外贸韧性和抗冲击能力显著提升。我们常说，朋友多了路好走。商务部相关负责 人称"西方不亮东方亮"，今天，我们的贸易伙伴更加多元。譬如，东盟已经连续5年成为我第一大贸易 伙伴；2024年，我国与共建"一带一路"国家贸易比重超过50%。另外，外贸企业有非常强大的韧性，积 极应变、主动求变。有一个细节值得关注：每天早上八九点钟，在浙江义乌，许多店主来到商城后，第 一件事并非开门迎客，而是投入到外语学习中。这种主动拥抱世界的姿态，恰恰印证了中国市场与全球 经济的深度交融——如今，中国大市场已然成为世界各国共享的大市 ...

上半年经济数据刚刚出炉，我国货物贸易进出口同比增长2.9%。6月，我国进出口整体、出口、进口同 比全部实现增长，且增速都在回升。可以看到，面对复杂严峻的国际形势，我国外贸保持了较强韧性， 实现了总量增长。谭主通过更长周期的数据对比发现，这背后，是新的国际贸易格局正在逐渐形成。当 前，全球贸易格局正处于一个关键的转折点。美国关税政策的反复无常虽然制造了不确定性，但也促使 全球贸易体系加速向真正多元的方向发展。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges faced by Malaysia's rubber export industry in the post-pandemic international trade landscape, highlighting the need for resource-rich countries to adapt and find new opportunities for survival and growth [1]. Group 1: Export Trends - Malaysia's rubber exports to China have been declining for three consecutive years since reaching a peak in 2021, with the total export value for 2024 projected at $1.36 billion, which is only half of the peak during the pandemic [2][4]. - In November 2024, China accounted for 44.2% of Malaysia's rubber exports, but this share dropped to 40.8% just four months later, indicating a shift in the export landscape [10]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The overall cooling of domestic demand in China is a significant factor, as high inventory levels and weak consumption in downstream industries like automotive and construction have led to reduced rubber import needs [5]. - The rise of electric vehicles, which require more durable tires with lower replacement frequency, is accelerating the substitution of natural rubber with synthetic alternatives like S-SBR and BR [6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Malaysia is facing increased competition from neighboring countries, particularly Myanmar and Laos, which have seen significant growth in rubber exports to China, with imports from these countries rising from 180,000 tons in 2021 to over 325,000 tons in 2024, an increase of over 80% [6]. - To reduce reliance on a single market, Malaysia is diversifying its export destinations, targeting traditional and emerging markets such as the US, Germany, Turkey, and Iran, while also shifting its product focus from general-purpose rubber to higher-end categories [15][17]. Group 4: Structural Challenges - The Malaysian rubber industry is experiencing structural issues, including an aging workforce with an average age over 50, leading to decreased harvesting efficiency and output [26]. - The volatility of international rubber prices, influenced by climate, geopolitical factors, and global economic uncertainties, poses a significant risk to smallholders, who are often the first to suffer during price drops [26]. Group 5: Transition Efforts - Malaysia is actively pursuing export structure adjustments and diversification, with electronics and chemicals emerging as new growth engines, while also facing challenges such as insufficient R&D investment and a shortage of technical talent [27][30]. - The government is working to enhance resilience and competitiveness in the export system through education, international cooperation, and participation in free trade agreements, but significant efforts are still needed to transition from a resource-dependent to a technology-driven economy [30].