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五矿期货贵金属日报-20250721
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 06:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the uncertainty of Powell's tenure, under Trump's strong intervention, the Fed's monetary policy will gradually shift to a dovish stance, which is a significant positive factor for international silver prices. Gold prices will also benefit, but to a lesser extent than silver. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the precious metals market. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9095 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - **Domestic Market**: Shanghai Gold (Au) rose 0.36% to 778.10 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) rose 0.33% to 9216.00 yuan/kilogram. Au(T + D) rose 0.32% to 773.37 yuan/gram, and Ag(T + D) rose 0.96% to 9211.00 yuan/kilogram [2][4]. - **International Market**: COMEX gold fell 0.08% to 3355.70 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.15% to 38.41 dollars/ounce. London gold rose 1.10% to 3355.10 dollars/ounce, and London silver rose 1.36% to 38.27 dollars/ounce [2][4]. - **Other Market Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.44%, and the US dollar index was 98.42. The Dow Jones Index fell 0.32%, the S&P 500 fell 0.01%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 0.05% [2][4]. Market Outlook - **Powell's Situation**: Trump inquired about firing Powell, which caused a short - term increase in gold and silver prices. Although Trump later said there was no plan to fire Powell, he was considering candidates for the next Fed chair, and the candidates' views on monetary policy are dovish [2][3]. - **Impact on Precious Metals**: A dovish Fed monetary policy is beneficial for international silver prices, and gold prices will also be positively affected, but silver is expected to perform stronger. It is advisable to maintain a long - position strategy [3]. Data Tables and Charts - **Key Data of Gold and Silver**: On July 18, 2025, COMEX gold's closing price rose 0.30%, while its trading volume decreased by 28.86%. COMEX silver's closing price fell 0.03%, and its position increased by 5.33% [7]. - **Price and Volume Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the relationships between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, positions, and other factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, and historical price trends [9][11][13][17][28][29]. - **Near - and Far - Month Structures**: The near - and far - month structures of COMEX gold, London gold, Shanghai Gold, COMEX silver, London silver, and Shanghai Silver are presented, along with the price differences between different contracts [19][21][31][39]. - **Net Long Positions of Management Funds**: The relationships between the net long positions of management funds in COMEX gold and silver and their prices are shown [41][47]. - **ETF Positions**: The total positions of gold and silver ETFs are presented [48]. - **Internal - External Price Differences**: The internal - external price differences of gold and silver on July 18, 2025, are calculated, including the price differences between SHFE and COMEX, and SGE and LBMA [50]. - **Moving Averages and Seasonal Charts**: The 5 - day moving averages and seasonal charts of the internal - external price differences of gold and silver are provided [51][53].