8月25日，上海六部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》，叠加此前北京放开外围 限购，政策刺激有望带动顺周期需求侧回暖。作为地产后周期相关度较高行业，大消费中商贸零售与食 品饮料今日涨幅居前，分别上涨2.67%与2.57%。当前中报进入密集披露期，在市场大幅上行背景下， 关注消费板块具有政策持续发力刺激、估值低位修复、业绩增速性价比突出等配置优势。 食品饮料ETF(515170)：产品跟踪的标的指数为中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数，该指数反映沪深两市 细分食品产业公司股票的整体走势，该指数从食品制造等细分产业中挑选规模较大、流动性较好的公司 股票组成样本股。根据申万三级行业分布，指数权重集中于白酒(56.8%)、乳制品(14.1%)、调味发酵品 (9.9%)等估值低位方向。 地产政策放松是此前系列宏观政策延续，消费方向作为后周期行业同样受益。此前包括生育相关的育儿 补贴政策、免费学前教育政策，与消费直接挂钩的"以旧换新"政策补充资金、消费贷财政贴息政策等， 陆续刺激资金预计分别达1000亿/年、450亿/年、1380亿/H2、500亿/年，2025年两会提出的"提振消费专 项行动"已陆续出台多项核 ...

Core Insights - The home appliance industry is expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy, which is anticipated to drive significant sales growth in Q4 2024 and continue into 2025, supported by the gradual release of special bond quotas [1][2] - The real estate sector's post-cycle recovery is expected to bolster demand for appliance upgrades, with a notable increase in second-hand home transactions contributing to sales support [1][2] - Despite challenges from tariff wars, China's home appliance exports are projected to maintain growth due to the country's position as the world's largest producer and seller, with a low dependency on the U.S. market [1][2] Market Review - In H1 2025, the home appliance sector experienced a decline of 3.2%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 1.55% [14] - The total market capitalization of public funds in the home appliance sector was approximately 120.37 billion yuan at the end of Q1 2025, remaining stable compared to Q4 2024, but showing a slight decrease in allocation ratio [15] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the home appliance index is at 13.58, indicating a historically low valuation level, suggesting a high cost-performance ratio for investors [19] Domestic Sales - The demand for new appliance configurations is expected to weaken due to a decline in housing completions, while upgrade demand is anticipated to drive domestic sales growth [26][29] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with policies aimed at supporting the sector expected to positively impact downstream demand for home appliances [29] - The penetration rate of major appliances is high, with many units entering their replacement cycle, further supporting sales [39] Export Market - In 2024, the export volume and value of home appliances increased by 20.8% and 14.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a continued upward trend in early 2025 due to the "export rush" effect [9] - The export growth is expected to remain resilient despite tariff uncertainties, as China's home appliance exports have a low dependency on the U.S. market and are supported by rising demand in emerging markets [9][42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading white goods companies with stable operations and global layouts, as well as opportunities for valuation recovery in companies related to the real estate sector as risks ease [1][2]