Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of the Chinese economy and its divergence from the historical path of Japan's economic bubble, emphasizing that China has learned from Japan's past mistakes in monetary and fiscal policies [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - China has maintained a relatively tight monetary policy, avoiding the excessive easing that characterized Japan's approach in the late 1980s, which led to asset bubbles [3]. - The Chinese yuan has been effectively controlled, preventing a significant appreciation similar to the Japanese yen post-1985 [3]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The rapid increase in real estate prices in China has been followed by a decline since 2021, contrasting with Japan's unchecked real estate bubble in the early 1990s [3]. - Early intervention measures were taken in China to curb rising property prices, demonstrating a proactive approach to prevent a housing market collapse [3]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy - Both experts express caution regarding the effectiveness of aggressive fiscal policies, noting that Japan's government debt reached 250%-260% of GDP from 1985 to 1995 without reviving the economy [5]. - Fiscal measures can provide short-term boosts to GDP but may lack long-term effectiveness in fostering market vitality and innovation [5]. Group 4: Economic Development Logic - The focus of China's economic strategy has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, aiming to cultivate sustainable market-driven development [7]. - The lessons learned from Japan's economic history suggest that China is unlikely to repeat the same mistakes, with a belief in the potential for future economic improvement [7].

感谢新浪财经，给出一个这样的机会，让二级市场投资和研究的同行们可以在年底相聚在一起。在现在这个行业的冬天，我想跟 大家分享一些我最近的思考，研究和心得体会。 最近有一件让我特别开心的事情，就是李子柒的回归。2021年李子柒停更后，基本上资本市场就进入了熊市，她现在一回来，市场碰巧也热了不少，希望 这是冥冥注定的巧合。 我是李子柒的长期粉丝。为什么我喜欢李子柒？ 首先因为我跟李子柒一样，也是园艺爱好者，我也自己打理花园。这是我的花园，我认为我的花园也很好看。 我也喜欢做美食，以前我甚至自称 陆家嘴李子柒 我在打理花园的过程中，发现养花跟投资其实非常相似，有很多共通的地方。 第一个共通点是： 颜值最高的花在冬天都特别丑，这就类似于强周期行业，有可能实现暴利的行业，周期底部都特别惨。 花园爱好者都知道有三种颜值特别高的花，被称为花园三宝：月季、绣球和铁线莲。图左边是铁线莲是冬天的样子，很像已经枯死。大部分新手看到那个 状态，会把它扔掉，实际上它并没有死掉，春天它重新恢复生机会变成右图那样的盛世美颜。 月季和绣球也是如此，冬天都特别丑，到了春天就特别美。这与周期性行业很相似，无论是航运钢铁、房地产以及我们自己的证券行 ...