日本问题研究专家分享：日本局势未来如何演绎 20251120 摘要 日本高市早苗将台湾问题与日本集体自卫权关联，暗示可能武力介入台 海，此举突破了日本政府长期以来的政策边界，引发中国强烈反应，可 能导致中日关系进一步紧张。 中国对高市早苗言论采取了前所未有的高层级外交交涉和强硬声明，显 示中国政府高度重视此事，并采取措施遏制这一苗头，以维护国家主权 和领土完整。 高市早苗的言论可能违反日本和平宪法第九条、中日双边条约以及国际 法基本准则，挑战了日本长期以来的和平主义政策，并可能对地区稳定 产生负面影响。 中国可能采取包括外交交涉、舆论批驳、经贸反制等一系列强硬措施来 应对，并警惕其他域外势力在此类敏感议题上的挑衅行为，以维护国家 利益和区域稳定。 日元贬值对日本经济产生双重影响：一方面导致以美元计价的 GDP 总量 缩水，削弱购买力；另一方面提升出口竞争力，使得跨国制造业公司盈 利创新高，股市也经历了显著上涨。 Q&A 日本首位女首相在国会答辩中关于台湾问题的言论为何引发轩然大波？ 10 月 7 日，日本新任女首相在国会答辩中发表了极端错误的挑衅言论，明确表 示日本可能采取军事行动介入台海。这一表态突破了日本 ...

欢迎来到小莫看国际，这篇国际评论我们要聊一件耐人寻味的大事，大陆战机从四个方向压向台湾，而在"台湾有事就是日本有事"喊得最响的日本，却在关 键时刻一句硬话都不敢说，反而赶紧派官员飞来北京"澄清"。 台湾防务部门公布的航迹显示，大陆军机与多艘军舰在48小时内密集活动，最敏感的部分是航迹来自东、南、西、北四个方向，呈现出一种"包围式压制"的 态势。 台海的军事态势升温 这次与过去以西部、南部为主的巡航不同，加上空警-500预警机与轰-6K轰炸机的加入，更像是一次"侦察—指挥—打击"一体化能力的展示，而不再是单纯 的战机绕行。 这对台湾无疑是巨大的压力，但真正让局势微妙的，是日本的反应——或者说，是日本这次罕见的"没有反应"。 一旦中国游客和留学生数量下降，日本经济将出现连锁反应。 紧接着，中方又在外交部明确表示，G20峰会期间没有安排与日本领导人的会面，这几乎等于直接告诉日本。想沟通可以，但不是你说了就有。 解放军在黄海中部连续三天组织实弹射击，这个地点非常敏感，不点名，但日本肯定看得懂。 正是这种现实压力，让日本突然意识到"喊话"容易，"承担"才是真问题。 高市早苗此前刚在国会放话，说什么"台湾有事就是日本有事 ...

日本首相高市早苗在国会的一句"台湾有事可能是存亡危机事态"，不仅在外交层面激起千层浪，更在东 京股市瞬间掀起风暴。 资本市场的反应迅速而残酷。11月17日上午，日本旅游、零售、航空类股票遭投资者猛烈抛售。对中国 游客消费依赖度较高的资生堂一度下跌超过11%，创下四月初以来最大单日跌幅。 股市震荡 周一早盘，日本股市整体低迷，日经225指数和东证指数均下跌0.6%。 然而，旅游相关股票的跌幅远超过大盘，百货公司、运输、消费等板块成为重灾区。 三越伊势丹百货公司股票下跌10.64%，高岛屋下跌6.29%。 东京迪士尼度假区运营商日本东方乐园公司股价下跌约5%，全日空控股公司股价下跌4.74%。 此外，日本杂货品牌良品计划股价一度下跌12%，创2024年8月以来最大跌幅。 资本市场的气压计明确显示，投资者预计中日关系恶化将直接导致访日中国游客锐减，进而重创这些企 业的业绩。 风波起源 这场股市震荡的源头可追溯至11月7日，日本新任首相高市早苗在日本众议院预算委员会会议上的发 言。 她公然表示："台湾有事可能是日本行使集体自卫权的'存亡危机事态'"，暗示日本可能以武力介入台海 局势。 这一言论是1945年日本战败以来 ...

每经编辑｜程鹏 据央视新闻11月18日报道，日本外务省亚洲大洋洲局局长金井正彰昨天（17日）起访华。据日媒报道，在中国期间，他将围绕日本首相高市早苗涉台言论 与中方进行磋商。今天，外交部亚洲司司长刘劲松与其会面。14时左右，金井正彰一行离开中国外交部。面对媒体提问，他并未给出任何表态。 受科技股大跌和中日关系恶化担忧拖累，日本股市剧烈震荡。11月18日，日经225指数开盘即跌1.02%，随后跌幅迅速扩大，创下近一个月新低。截至18 日收盘，日经225指数报收于48702.98点，较前一交易日收盘价下跌1620.93点，跌幅3.22%。 截至发稿，日元对美元汇率跌至155.20。 截至发稿，COMEX黄金期货跌1.55%报4011.3美元/盎司，现货黄金跌0.96%报4006.51美元/盎司。国内有品牌金饰价格从11月14日起已实现四连跌。其 中，周生生足金饰品报1289元/克，较前一日下跌16元/克；老凤祥足金饰品报1285元/克，较前一日下跌8元/克，较13日的高点也已四连跌。 | 今日黄金最新价格 | | 单位:元/克 更新时间:11-18 | | --- | --- | --- | | 周大福 | 周六 ...

近日，日本股市剧烈震荡。从旅游股到零售股，从航空股到化妆品股，市场恐慌情绪不断扩散。 11月18日，日经225指数开盘即跌1.02%，随后跌幅迅速扩大至2%以上，一度跌破49200点，创下近一个 月新低。盘中，日元对美元汇率跌至155.38，创下1月以来新低；日经225指数跌超2.5%，跌破49000 点；日本东证指数跌超2%；30年期日本国债收益率上升7个基点，至3.325%；20年期日本国债收益率上 升7个基点，至2.810%。 旅游业遭遇重创 近几日，日本首相高市早苗越线挑衅言论引发的严重后果正在快速发酵。 中国文化和旅游部11月16日发布消息，提醒中国游客近期避免前往日本旅游。 中国游客的减少将对日本经济产生连锁反应。野村综合研究所研究员木内登英预测，中国政府的旅游提 醒可能令日本今后一年旅游消费收入减少约2.2万亿日元（约合人民币1011.6亿元），拖累日本实际国内 生产总值(GDP)减少0.36%。 旅游业的紧张局势已在实际层面显现。上海旅行社退订率超过六成；北京专门做日本团的旅行社表示， 有大批客户主动退团，预计退团潮短期内将持续。 日本经济考验 高市早苗的言论不仅引发外交危机，也在日本国内激起 ...

| < W | 日经225(N225) | | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 11-18 09:34:36 | | | | | | | 49347.78 昨收 50323.91 | | | 成交额 | 0 | | -976.13 -1.94% | | 今井 | 49812.95 | 成交量 | O | | 上 浙 | 24 | 平 盘 | 0 | 下 跌 | 201 | | 最高价 | 49971.55 | 市盈率 | 20.7 | 近20日 | 0.33% | | 最低价 | 49347.78 | 市净率 | 2.36 | 今年来 | 23.70% | | 分时 | | FF EK | 周Ｋ | | 申务 © | | 暨加 51300.04 | | | | | 1.94% | | $0323.91 | | | | | 0.00% | | 4934 NY8 | | | | | -1.94% | 11月18日（周二），日韩股市开盘大跌。 截至发稿， 日经225指数下跌1.94%至49347.78点。 综合自：中国新闻社 韩国综合指数盘中跌1. ...

Group 1 - The Japanese films "Crayon Shin-chan: The Hot Spring Dancers" and "Cells at Work" have announced a delay in their release in China, which was initially scheduled for November 22 and December 6 respectively [1][9][11] - The cancellation of these films is linked to the deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations, particularly following controversial remarks made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding Taiwan, which have led to increased tensions and a negative atmosphere for cultural exchanges [3][12][14] - The Japanese film "Cells at Work" had achieved significant box office success in Japan, grossing over 6.3 billion yen, making it the highest-grossing adaptation of a manga featuring actor Takeru Satoh [5][7] Group 2 - Travel agencies in China report a significant number of cancellations for group tours to Japan, with some agencies indicating that over 60% of their bookings have been canceled due to safety concerns and the current political climate [12][14] - The Japanese stock market has reacted negatively, with travel-related stocks experiencing substantial declines, including a drop of over 10% for some companies heavily reliant on Chinese tourists [4][20] - Economic analysts predict that a reduction in Chinese tourists could lead to a decrease in Japan's GDP by approximately 0.36%, equating to an estimated economic loss of 2.2 trillion yen, or about 101.16 billion yuan [15][17]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's inflation rate remains persistently high, exceeding policy targets, while the central bank maintains a cautious stance on interest rate hikes, raising questions about the effectiveness of its monetary policy [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The former Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shirakawa Masaaki, attributes the current monetary policy stance to two main factors: the core inflation rate being below 2% and uncertainties arising from U.S. tariff policies [1] - Shirakawa expresses skepticism about the explanation of Japan's economy and inflation, noting that inflation has been above 2% for the past three years, suggesting that the core inflation rate should not still be below this threshold [1] - Concerns about potential negative reactions in financial markets contribute to the Bank of Japan's cautious approach to monetary policy, as the long-standing zero interest rate policy may have led to accumulated risks in the financial system [1] Group 2: Currency and Economic Competitiveness - Shirakawa highlights that the depreciation of the yen has led to inflation, which in turn weakens actual potential income, contributing to ongoing weak consumer spending [1] - The former President of the Asian Development Bank, Nakao Takehiko, argues that the Bank of Japan should accelerate the normalization of its monetary policy to strengthen the yen and halt its depreciation [1] - Nakao believes that a stronger yen would be more beneficial for Japan's economy, countering the notion that a weaker yen enhances competitiveness and helps escape deflation [1][2] Group 3: Economic Recovery Strategies - Nakao identifies the excessive weakness of the yen as a key issue harming the economy, suggesting that a more effective approach would involve returning service, product, wage levels, real estate, and GDP to reasonable pricing [2] - The focus should be on raising price levels to stimulate economic revitalization rather than relying on the attractiveness of a "cheap" yen to draw tourists [2]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around whether China's economy could follow the path of Japan's economic bubble, with insights from economists on the current state of China's economy and the lessons learned from Japan's past experiences [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Comparison - After the 1985 Plaza Accord, Japan experienced a significant appreciation of the yen, leading to a short-term economic boom followed by a severe asset bubble burst, contrasting with China's current economic policies which have effectively avoided such a scenario [3]. - China's real estate prices surged rapidly but began to decline after 2021, indicating a proactive approach to prevent a housing bubble similar to Japan's in the early 1990s [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - China's monetary policy has remained relatively tight compared to Japan's historically loose monetary stance, which has helped prevent asset prices from reaching the levels seen in Japan during its bubble period [3]. - The Chinese government has learned from Japan's experience and has maintained a stable monetary policy to avoid excessive asset inflation [3]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy - Both economists express caution regarding the effectiveness of aggressive fiscal policies, citing Japan's experience where high government debt (250%-260% of GDP) did not lead to sustainable economic recovery [5]. - The short-term benefits of fiscal stimulus are acknowledged, but the long-term impact on market vitality and innovation remains questionable [5]. Group 4: Shift in Economic Logic - China's economic focus has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, emphasizing the importance of sustainable and quality-driven economic development [7]. - The belief is that China has absorbed lessons from Japan's economic history, suggesting that it is unlikely to repeat the same mistakes, with optimism for future economic prospects [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of the Chinese economy and its divergence from the historical path of Japan's economic bubble, emphasizing that China has learned from Japan's past mistakes in monetary and fiscal policies [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - China has maintained a relatively tight monetary policy, avoiding the excessive easing that characterized Japan's approach in the late 1980s, which led to asset bubbles [3]. - The Chinese yuan has been effectively controlled, preventing a significant appreciation similar to the Japanese yen post-1985 [3]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The rapid increase in real estate prices in China has been followed by a decline since 2021, contrasting with Japan's unchecked real estate bubble in the early 1990s [3]. - Early intervention measures were taken in China to curb rising property prices, demonstrating a proactive approach to prevent a housing market collapse [3]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy - Both experts express caution regarding the effectiveness of aggressive fiscal policies, noting that Japan's government debt reached 250%-260% of GDP from 1985 to 1995 without reviving the economy [5]. - Fiscal measures can provide short-term boosts to GDP but may lack long-term effectiveness in fostering market vitality and innovation [5]. Group 4: Economic Development Logic - The focus of China's economic strategy has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, aiming to cultivate sustainable market-driven development [7]. - The lessons learned from Japan's economic history suggest that China is unlikely to repeat the same mistakes, with a belief in the potential for future economic improvement [7].