（原标题：突然，暴跌！阿根廷紧急救市！） 阿根廷打响"货币保卫战"。 面对阿根廷比索汇率持续暴跌，阿根廷央行于周三、周四、周五连续出手干预汇市，合计抛售11.1亿美 元。分析人士称，考虑到阿根廷的流动性外汇储备，如此干预规模在该国堪称惊人。 阿根廷大规模救市 当地时间周五，阿根廷央行抛售了6.78亿美元来支撑阿根廷比索汇率，这是本周第三次干预汇市。此前 阿根廷央行已在周四、周三分别抛售了3.79亿美元、5300万美元。 阿根廷央行大规模救市的背后是，阿根廷比索汇率持续暴跌。过去一个月，阿根廷比索兑美元已累计贬 值幅度接近11%，年内累计跌幅高达30.1%。 周五晚些时候，一名当地记者拦住阿根廷总统哈维尔?米莱进行简短采访，他表示，市场正处于恐慌模 式。他还誓言要不惜一切代价捍卫比索。 随着阿根廷央行的美元储备加速消耗，市场愈发怀疑阿根廷政府是否有能力维持现行的汇率政策。美国 外交关系协会（CFR）高级研究员Brad Setser评论称，阿根廷央行连续3天的救市意味着阿根廷比索正 面临挤兑。 对此，阿根廷经济部长路易斯·卡普托誓言将"动用最后一美元"来捍卫汇率区间。 卡普托还表示，未来几周，政府预计将对2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around whether China's economy could follow the path of Japan's economic bubble, with insights from economists on the current state of China's economy and the lessons learned from Japan's past experiences [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Comparison - After the 1985 Plaza Accord, Japan experienced a significant appreciation of the yen, leading to a short-term economic boom followed by a severe asset bubble burst, contrasting with China's current economic policies which have effectively avoided such a scenario [3]. - China's real estate prices surged rapidly but began to decline after 2021, indicating a proactive approach to prevent a housing bubble similar to Japan's in the early 1990s [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - China's monetary policy has remained relatively tight compared to Japan's historically loose monetary stance, which has helped prevent asset prices from reaching the levels seen in Japan during its bubble period [3]. - The Chinese government has learned from Japan's experience and has maintained a stable monetary policy to avoid excessive asset inflation [3]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy - Both economists express caution regarding the effectiveness of aggressive fiscal policies, citing Japan's experience where high government debt (250%-260% of GDP) did not lead to sustainable economic recovery [5]. - The short-term benefits of fiscal stimulus are acknowledged, but the long-term impact on market vitality and innovation remains questionable [5]. Group 4: Shift in Economic Logic - China's economic focus has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, emphasizing the importance of sustainable and quality-driven economic development [7]. - The belief is that China has absorbed lessons from Japan's economic history, suggesting that it is unlikely to repeat the same mistakes, with optimism for future economic prospects [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of the Chinese economy and its divergence from the historical path of Japan's economic bubble, emphasizing that China has learned from Japan's past mistakes in monetary and fiscal policies [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - China has maintained a relatively tight monetary policy, avoiding the excessive easing that characterized Japan's approach in the late 1980s, which led to asset bubbles [3]. - The Chinese yuan has been effectively controlled, preventing a significant appreciation similar to the Japanese yen post-1985 [3]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The rapid increase in real estate prices in China has been followed by a decline since 2021, contrasting with Japan's unchecked real estate bubble in the early 1990s [3]. - Early intervention measures were taken in China to curb rising property prices, demonstrating a proactive approach to prevent a housing market collapse [3]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy - Both experts express caution regarding the effectiveness of aggressive fiscal policies, noting that Japan's government debt reached 250%-260% of GDP from 1985 to 1995 without reviving the economy [5]. - Fiscal measures can provide short-term boosts to GDP but may lack long-term effectiveness in fostering market vitality and innovation [5]. Group 4: Economic Development Logic - The focus of China's economic strategy has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, aiming to cultivate sustainable market-driven development [7]. - The lessons learned from Japan's economic history suggest that China is unlikely to repeat the same mistakes, with a belief in the potential for future economic improvement [7].

Core Insights - The $550 billion investment fund, part of the tariff agreement between Japan and the U.S., may significantly utilize Japan's $1.3 trillion foreign exchange reserves [1] - U.S. Treasury securities are a core component of Japan's foreign exchange reserves, and utilizing these bonds could trigger a chain reaction leading to an increase in long-term U.S. Treasury yields [1] - This situation may prompt the U.S. to pressure Japan to extend the maturity of its Treasury holdings [1] - From a currency policy perspective, the trend is expected to lean towards a weaker U.S. dollar and a stronger Japanese yen [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's monetary policy can maintain a "self-directed" approach despite uncertainties in major developed economies' monetary policies, with limited impact from overseas adjustments on China's autonomy [1][2][3] - Experts believe that China's monetary policy will prioritize domestic growth, employment, and price stability rather than being influenced by cross-border capital flows or foreign monetary policies [2][3] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining exchange rate flexibility and preventing excessive fluctuations, with macro policies aimed at stabilizing growth being a key factor for exchange rate stability [3][4] Group 2 - The potential for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts could provide more operational space for China's monetary policy, but any decisions will ultimately depend on domestic economic conditions [2][4] - Experts suggest that the adjustment of monetary policies in major economies may lead to increased international capital flows, which could support China's capital markets [4][5] - There is a consensus that the RMB exchange rate will remain resilient, with limited impact from changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace [4]

Economic Growth and Policy Support - The GDP growth rate reached 5.3% in the first half of 2025, with a target of 5% for the entire year, indicating sustained policy support for the economy [1] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will remain stable with an emphasis on optimizing existing resources without increasing deficits or issuing new bonds, focusing on precise measures to enhance employment and foreign trade [2] - The government plans to adjust budget allocations and expedite the issuance of special bonds for next year to support major economic provinces [2] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with potential for slight reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, while maintaining stability in the RMB exchange rate against the USD [3] - Structural policy tools will be accelerated to support technological innovation and boost consumption [3] Consumer Promotion - Policies aimed at promoting consumption will focus on optimizing trade-in programs and removing unreasonable restrictions on consumer spending, particularly in major cities [4] - Initiatives may include childcare subsidies and local consumption voucher policies to stimulate spending [4] Investment Stability - Infrastructure investment is expected to rebound, supported by the completion of an 800 billion yuan construction project list and the initiation of significant projects [5] - New policy financial tools will be implemented to support key sectors such as digital economy and green transformation [5] Real Estate Market - The focus will shift from large-scale expansion to optimizing existing urban infrastructure, with an emphasis on safety and disaster prevention [6] - Attention will be given to policies that support the construction of quality housing and the revitalization of idle real estate [6] Employment and Market Governance - Policies to promote employment and consumption are expected to be rolled out, particularly in the service sector, as part of a broader effort to enhance market governance and competition [7]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has reported significant growth in social financing and monetary supply, indicating effective monetary policy support for the real economy in the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - As of June 30, 2025, the total social financing stock reached 430.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [1]. - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 330.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, up 4.6% [1]. - The cash in circulation (M0) amounted to 13.18 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12% increase [1]. - The net cash injection in the first half of 2025 was 363.3 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Measures - The PBOC has adopted a moderately loose monetary policy to support the economy, with a focus on enhancing financial services for the real economy [2][3]. - A comprehensive set of financial support measures was implemented in May 2025, aimed at boosting market confidence and stabilizing expectations [2]. - The PBOC has emphasized the importance of policy coordination and the use of structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors and address weaknesses [3]. Group 3: Support for Technological Innovation - The PBOC has introduced two key measures to support technological innovation: optimizing re-loans for technology innovation and establishing a "technology board" in the bond market [4][5]. - By the end of May 2025, loans for technology innovation and technological transformation reached 1.7 trillion yuan, 1.9 times the amount at the end of 2024 [5]. - The bond market has seen 288 entities issue approximately 600 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds since May 2025, with over 400 billion yuan issued in the interbank market [5][6]. Group 4: Currency Exchange and Economic Stability - The PBOC maintains that China does not seek to gain international competitive advantages through currency devaluation, emphasizing a stable and flexible exchange rate policy [7][8]. - The recent appreciation of the yuan against the dollar is attributed to a stable domestic economic environment, despite fluctuations in the dollar's value [7]. - The PBOC aims to keep the yuan's exchange rate stable while enhancing market-driven mechanisms and managing expectations [8]. Group 5: Consumer Support Initiatives - The PBOC has prioritized boosting consumption as a key economic task for 2025, issuing guidelines to enhance financial support for consumption [9][10]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to strengthen services on both supply and demand sides to meet diverse financing needs [9]. - A 500 billion yuan re-loan facility has been established to support service consumption and elderly care, aiming to improve the quality of supply in these sectors [10].

Monetary Policy - The central bank will maintain a "moderately loose" monetary policy in the second half of the year, focusing on effective implementation of existing measures to enhance financial services for the real economy [2][3] - The central bank aims to balance the implementation of policies with the economic growth and price level expectations, ensuring sufficient liquidity in the market [2][3] - Structural monetary policy tools will emphasize support for key areas such as technological innovation and consumption, while enhancing policy coordination [2][3] Bond Investment by Small and Medium Banks - The central bank acknowledges that small and medium banks' aggressive bond investment strategies can be reasonable within regulatory limits, as they help stabilize the market [3] - However, it emphasizes the need for these banks to maintain a balance between investment returns and risk exposure, particularly regarding interest and credit risks [3] - The central bank will enhance market monitoring and share information on high-risk institutions with regulatory bodies to prevent financial market risks [3] Currency Exchange Rate Policy - The central bank asserts that China does not seek to gain international competitive advantages through currency devaluation, maintaining a clear and consistent stance on exchange rate policy [6] - The central bank aims to keep the RMB exchange rate stable and flexible, while managing expectations to prevent excessive fluctuations [6] - Current economic fundamentals support a stable RMB, with a projected current account surplus of 2.2% of GDP in 2024, indicating a balanced international payment situation [5][6] Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The central bank has introduced various structural monetary policy tools to support economic transformation, including a 500 billion yuan facility for service consumption and elderly care [7] - As of the end of May, contracts for technological innovation and transformation loans reached 1.74 trillion yuan, indicating strong demand for these financial products [8] - The central bank plans to continue focusing on key areas while ensuring the dual functionality of monetary policy tools to promote economic restructuring and upgrading [8]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes that China does not seek to gain international competitive advantages through currency depreciation, maintaining a clear and consistent stance on its exchange rate policy [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Exchange Rate Policy - The PBOC will continue to uphold the decisive role of the market in the formation of exchange rates, ensuring exchange rate flexibility [1] - The central bank aims to strengthen expectations guidance to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [1] - The goal is to keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is in a stable position but should not become complacent, as there are concerns about inflation remaining below target for an extended period [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - The ECB cannot tolerate prolonged low inflation affecting market expectations [1] - There is no commitment to follow a specific interest rate path, indicating flexibility in monetary policy [1] - Inflation risks are characterized by both upward and downward pressures [1] Group 2: Currency and Economic Position - The appreciation of the euro aids the ECB in achieving its 2% inflation target [1] - The euro has the potential to enhance its international standing [1] - Exchange rates are not a target for policy adjustment [1]