Economic Growth and Policy Support - The GDP growth rate reached 5.3% in the first half of 2025, with a target of 5% for the entire year, indicating sustained policy support for the economy [1] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will remain stable with an emphasis on optimizing existing resources without increasing deficits or issuing new bonds, focusing on precise measures to enhance employment and foreign trade [2] - The government plans to adjust budget allocations and expedite the issuance of special bonds for next year to support major economic provinces [2] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with potential for slight reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, while maintaining stability in the RMB exchange rate against the USD [3] - Structural policy tools will be accelerated to support technological innovation and boost consumption [3] Consumer Promotion - Policies aimed at promoting consumption will focus on optimizing trade-in programs and removing unreasonable restrictions on consumer spending, particularly in major cities [4] - Initiatives may include childcare subsidies and local consumption voucher policies to stimulate spending [4] Investment Stability - Infrastructure investment is expected to rebound, supported by the completion of an 800 billion yuan construction project list and the initiation of significant projects [5] - New policy financial tools will be implemented to support key sectors such as digital economy and green transformation [5] Real Estate Market - The focus will shift from large-scale expansion to optimizing existing urban infrastructure, with an emphasis on safety and disaster prevention [6] - Attention will be given to policies that support the construction of quality housing and the revitalization of idle real estate [6] Employment and Market Governance - Policies to promote employment and consumption are expected to be rolled out, particularly in the service sector, as part of a broader effort to enhance market governance and competition [7]

Monetary Policy - The central bank will maintain a "moderately loose" monetary policy in the second half of the year, focusing on effective implementation of existing measures to enhance financial services for the real economy [2][3] - The central bank aims to balance the implementation of policies with the economic growth and price level expectations, ensuring sufficient liquidity in the market [2][3] - Structural monetary policy tools will emphasize support for key areas such as technological innovation and consumption, while enhancing policy coordination [2][3] Bond Investment by Small and Medium Banks - The central bank acknowledges that small and medium banks' aggressive bond investment strategies can be reasonable within regulatory limits, as they help stabilize the market [3] - However, it emphasizes the need for these banks to maintain a balance between investment returns and risk exposure, particularly regarding interest and credit risks [3] - The central bank will enhance market monitoring and share information on high-risk institutions with regulatory bodies to prevent financial market risks [3] Currency Exchange Rate Policy - The central bank asserts that China does not seek to gain international competitive advantages through currency devaluation, maintaining a clear and consistent stance on exchange rate policy [6] - The central bank aims to keep the RMB exchange rate stable and flexible, while managing expectations to prevent excessive fluctuations [6] - Current economic fundamentals support a stable RMB, with a projected current account surplus of 2.2% of GDP in 2024, indicating a balanced international payment situation [5][6] Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The central bank has introduced various structural monetary policy tools to support economic transformation, including a 500 billion yuan facility for service consumption and elderly care [7] - As of the end of May, contracts for technological innovation and transformation loans reached 1.74 trillion yuan, indicating strong demand for these financial products [8] - The central bank plans to continue focusing on key areas while ensuring the dual functionality of monetary policy tools to promote economic restructuring and upgrading [8]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is in a stable position but should not become complacent, as there are concerns about inflation remaining below target for an extended period [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - The ECB cannot tolerate prolonged low inflation affecting market expectations [1] - There is no commitment to follow a specific interest rate path, indicating flexibility in monetary policy [1] - Inflation risks are characterized by both upward and downward pressures [1] Group 2: Currency and Economic Position - The appreciation of the euro aids the ECB in achieving its 2% inflation target [1] - The euro has the potential to enhance its international standing [1] - Exchange rates are not a target for policy adjustment [1]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 关注例会提法的变与不变 ——2025年二季度货币政策委员会例会学习 事 项 6月 27日，央行发布 2025年二季度货币政策委员会例会通稿，我们学习心得 如下。 核心观点 宏观研究 1、与一季度相比，例会的哪些变化值得关注？ ①在政策基调上，例会删去了"把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革 有机结合起来"，并增加了"把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置，统筹好 总供给和总需求的关系"这一表述。 ②在货币政策思路上，删去了"择机降准降息"，增加了"灵活把握政策实施 力度和节奏的表述"。 ③汇率表述上，央行删去了"加强市场管理，坚决对市场顺周期行为进行纠偏， 坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置"的表述。 2、与一季度相比，例会的哪些不变值得关注？ 在货币政策态度上，央行维持了"货币政策适度宽松"的表述，但同时，央行 也维持了"畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使用效率，防范资金空转。" 3、我们如何理解的当下的货币政策 ①从货币政策投放的目的上，当下央行投放流动性不止是支持商业银行信用扩 张能力，同时还有稳定股债市场流动性的诉求。 ②从货币政策投放的数量上，重点关注居民存款搬家的力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) signals a stronger monetary policy adjustment and a stable yet slightly strong yuan exchange rate in the second half of 2025, amid complex domestic and international economic challenges [1][2]. Economic Situation Assessment - The PBOC's second-quarter meeting highlights internal challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels, while also acknowledging the increasingly complex external environment and rising trade barriers [1][2]. - The meeting indicates that these factors will directly influence the monetary policy direction for the second half of the year [1]. Monetary Policy Direction - The PBOC suggests increasing the intensity of monetary policy adjustments, emphasizing the need for forward-looking, targeted, and effective measures based on economic and financial market conditions [2]. - The meeting reiterates the commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments, and coordinating monetary and fiscal policies to maintain stable economic growth and reasonable price levels [2][3]. Expectations for Future Policies - Analysts expect the PBOC to continue promoting interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions in the second half of the year to lower financing costs for the real economy and stimulate internal financing demand [3]. - The PBOC is likely to implement structural monetary policies targeting sectors such as technology, consumption, foreign trade, real estate, and the stock market to drive high-quality economic development [3]. Exchange Rate Outlook - The PBOC's second-quarter meeting shifts focus from emphasizing strict controls to enhancing the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilizing market expectations, indicating a stable yuan exchange rate [4]. - Analysts predict that the yuan will maintain a stable yet slightly strong trend in the short term, influenced by factors such as US-China trade negotiations, dollar movements, and domestic macroeconomic policies [5][6]. Conclusion - The PBOC's flexible approach to monetary policy and exchange rate management aims to counter external pressures and support economic stability, with a focus on maintaining the yuan's stability as a key factor for economic growth [5][6].

Group 1 - The Brazilian Ministry of Finance's Deputy Minister Galipolo stated that there are currently no specific indicators that would prompt the central bank to raise interest rates again [1] - The exchange rate policy remains unchanged according to the Deputy Minister [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department has urged the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates to strengthen the yen, providing more in-depth policy recommendations than in previous reports [1] Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. Treasury's report emphasizes the need for Japan to implement tightening policies to address domestic economic fundamentals such as growth and inflation [1] - Japan currently has the highest inflation rate among the G7 countries, yet its benchmark interest rate stands at 0.5%, significantly lower than that of other member nations [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The report may fuel market speculation regarding the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike later this year [1] - The U.S. Treasury's assessment is the first formal evaluation of Japan's currency practices since President Trump returned to the White House [1] Group 3: Government Response - Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, stated that monetary policy is within the jurisdiction of the Bank of Japan and refrained from commenting on foreign government opinions [1]

台湾地区货币政策主管机构：自美国在四月公布关税以来，美国尚未要求新台币升值。我们与美国财政 部的沟通一直非常顺畅，持续了很长一段时间。将继续与美国财政部就整体经济和汇率政策进行交流。 ...

高盛集团表示，随着土耳其央行允许里拉贬值，全球最成功的套利交易面临风险。当前里拉的贬值速 度，与政策制定者希望将通胀率从上月约38%降至今年底24%、2026年降至12%的目标相矛盾。高盛预 计，土耳其央行很可能会在7月的会议上重启降息周期时，放弃当前的外汇政策，并认为目前的汇率政 策是在提前完成必要的贬值，以避免实际汇率出现大幅升值。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citi Group anticipates a potential further decline in the US dollar as global leaders discuss exchange rate policies during the G7 meeting, with expectations that the US may not actively seek a weaker dollar but could see it depreciate as trade agreements are reached [1] Group 1: G7 Meeting and Currency Policy - The G7 meeting has brought exchange rate policy to the forefront, with discussions expected to include currency valuation as part of trade negotiations [1] - South Korean officials have indicated ongoing discussions with the US regarding currency issues, while Japan's finance minister is set to meet with US Treasury Secretary Yellen to address similar topics [1] Group 2: Implications for the Dollar - Citi's strategists speculate that the US may request other countries to appreciate their currencies as part of tariff reduction negotiations, with Japan and other East Asian nations likely targets [1] - The report suggests that the US Treasury Secretary will not pursue a comprehensive agreement like the 1985 Plaza Accord to weaken the dollar but will emphasize the role of central banks in exchange rate matters [1] Group 3: Market Reactions and Dollar Index - The US dollar index has declined by 4% since early April, coinciding with the announcement of high tariff policies that caused global market turmoil [2] - Ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs has led to skepticism about US policies, negatively impacting confidence in the dollar and other US assets [2]