宏观动态报告 6.85 能守住吗？ 2026 年 2 月 27 日 人民币的点阵图：短期人民币汇率有望保持在合理均衡水平上的基本稳 定。根据我们的人民币汇率短期框架——人民币汇率的点阵图，我们认为短期 人民币汇率将处于第一象限，人民币的升值速率将有所减缓，呈现稳健升值。 一方面人民币的结汇需求从 3 月起将季节性走弱，二季度中概股将进入分红 期带来集中购汇，从外汇供求关系来看并不是有利于升值的方向；另一方面汇 率政策已启动逆周期 调节， 如果进 一步过 于剧烈 的波 动 可能会 引发其 他汇率 调节工具的推出。当下人民币汇率来到 6.85 这一关键点位附近，我们预期将 进入温和的震荡上行，下一个比较重要的点位可能在 6.75，是 2022 年 11 月 启动的快速强劲升值周期的低点。全年来看，人民币汇率依然是双向波动，不 会呈现单边的升值走势。展望 2026 年，目前人民币汇率正向着我们前期报告 分析师 张迪 ：010-8092-7737 ：zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 詹璐 ：0755-8345-3719 ：zhanlu @china ...

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the report is the continuation of a "moderately loose" monetary policy, with a focus on structural tools aimed at expanding domestic demand as the top priority, while emphasizing coordination with fiscal policy for consistent macroeconomic policy orientation [1][5][7]. Economic Outlook - The report presents a more optimistic assessment of China's economic performance, stating that the economy is "continuously stable and improving with conditions and support," highlighting the solid foundation of manufacturing, resilient foreign trade, and risk resistance capabilities [2]. - New growth drivers are strengthening, creating a positive cycle from research to manufacturing, supported by strong policy measures [2]. - However, it also warns of persistent old issues and new challenges, including rising external risks and domestic supply-demand imbalances [2]. Inflation Trends - The report indicates positive changes in price levels, with CPI rising by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, the highest since March 2023, and core CPI inflation remaining above 1% for four consecutive months [3]. Monetary Policy Stance - The monetary policy maintains a "moderately loose" stance, focusing on balancing short-term and long-term goals, supporting the real economy while ensuring the health of the banking system [5]. - The report suggests that the central bank may consider a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut based on liquidity conditions, with a cautious approach to interest rate cuts [6]. Structural Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of using monetary and credit policies to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and support for small and micro enterprises, with a particular focus on expanding domestic demand [6][8]. Financial Market Management - The central bank addresses concerns about deposit "losses," indicating that liquidity remains stable when considering combined deposits and asset management products [9]. - The report highlights a more refined management of interest rates, with a focus on guiding short-term market rates around the central bank's policy rates [10]. Exchange Rate Policy - The report introduces a focus on managing exchange rate fluctuations to avoid rapid appreciation of the yuan, which could undermine export competitiveness and economic growth [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra's testimony at a House Financial Services Committee hearing, where he engaged in a heated debate with Democratic lawmakers regarding tariffs, Federal Reserve independence, and exchange rate policy [1][2] - Becerra stated that "tariffs will not lead to inflation," citing a study from the San Francisco Fed, and corrected his previous assessment from January 2024 that tariffs would raise inflation, asserting that the U.S. economy has continued to grow and inflation has decreased since the implementation of tariffs [1] - The hearing highlighted significant partisan divisions in U.S. Congress regarding economic policy, with Democratic lawmakers challenging Becerra's statements and accusing him of being a "puppet" for Trump, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about the future direction of economic policies under the Trump administration [2] Group 2 - On the issue of Federal Reserve independence, Becerra expressed support but emphasized that this independence must be based on public trust, criticizing the Biden administration for allowing high inflation, which he believes has eroded that trust [2] - Becerra reiterated support for a strong dollar policy and mentioned that the U.S. Treasury attracted a record inflow of foreign funds into government bonds last year, predicting a slight decline in the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds [2]

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the U.S. Treasury has shifted from monetary policy to other factors influencing the currency market, particularly regarding Japan's economic policies and the yen's depreciation [2][5]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Report Insights - The U.S. Treasury's semi-annual currency report, released on January 29, indicates a change in stance regarding Japan's monetary policy, removing previous recommendations for the Bank of Japan to continue tightening [2][4]. - Japan remains on the "monitoring list" for potential currency manipulation, with trade surpluses exceeding specified thresholds, but not meeting the criteria for frequent intervention [2][5]. - The report highlights that the yen's depreciation is influenced not only by interest rate differentials but also by the new government's expansionary fiscal policy outlook [5]. Group 2: Currency Market Dynamics - The recent appreciation of the yen has been influenced by scrutiny from U.S. and Japanese authorities, leading to a temporary stabilization of the market [5]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary emphasized the pursuit of a "strong dollar," which has contributed to the dollar's depreciation against other major currencies [5]. - The report does not designate any countries as "currency manipulators," but includes Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Germany, Ireland, and Switzerland on the monitoring list, with Thailand being a new addition [5].

Group 1 - The central bank has lowered the interest rates of various relending tools by 25 basis points, which is not a traditional cut in reverse repo rates or LPR, but a targeted approach through structural tools [1] - This measure is expected to enhance banks' willingness to lend, promote stable credit growth, and alleviate pressure on bank interest margins [1] - The central bank is simultaneously expanding relending tools and innovating mechanisms, reinforcing targeted support for key areas such as technology, green finance, inclusive finance, elderly care, and digital sectors [1] Group 2 - The central bank indicates that there is still room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions this year, but short-term policy adjustments are expected to remain restrained due to ongoing export performance and short-term economic momentum [1] - The anticipated reduction in reverse repo rates for the year is expected to be around 10 basis points [1] - The central bank continues to maintain a policy focus on keeping the exchange rate stable at a reasonable level, prioritizing the prevention of excessive exchange rate fluctuations and enhancing corporate hedging capabilities rather than using exchange rate adjustments to gain trade competitiveness [1]

Key Points - The article discusses the effectiveness of monetary and financial policies in supporting the high-quality development of the real economy in China [2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will lower the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, with the one-year re-lending rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.25% [6] - The PBOC will merge the re-lending and re-discount for agriculture and small enterprises, increasing the re-lending quota by 500 billion yuan, with a separate quota of 1 trillion yuan for private enterprises [6] - The quota for re-lending for technological innovation and technological transformation will be increased from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan, expanding the support to high R&D investment private SMEs [6] - A combined risk-sharing tool for bonds of technological innovation and private enterprises will be established, providing a re-lending quota of 200 billion yuan [6] - The PBOC will lower the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30% to support the real estate market [7] - Financial institutions will be encouraged to enhance their foreign exchange risk hedging services [7] Group 2: Economic Growth and Price Stability - The PBOC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [15] - There is still room for further reductions in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rates, with the current average RRR at 6.3% [12] Group 3: Exchange Rate Policy - The PBOC has no intention of devaluing the currency to gain an international trade competitive advantage, emphasizing a stable and reasonable exchange rate [18] - The PBOC will continue to enhance the cross-border use of the renminbi and improve foreign exchange risk management tools for enterprises [18] Group 4: Support for Consumption and Private Enterprises - The PBOC will expand the support for service consumption and elderly care loans, including the health industry once recognized standards are established [21] - Measures will be taken to accelerate the implementation of re-lending for private enterprises, improving the financing environment for SMEs [24] Group 5: Financial Market Development - The PBOC aims to optimize the financial market structure, focusing on increasing the efficiency of financial resources directed towards key areas and weak links [26] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) will enhance the facilitation of foreign exchange reforms and improve the management of cross-border capital flows [28] Group 6: Foreign Exchange Management - SAFE will promote the orderly issuance of Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) investment quotas and enhance the openness of the financial market [40] - Efforts will be made to simplify foreign exchange registration procedures for foreign direct investment to facilitate foreign investment in China [41]

Core Viewpoint - The press conference highlighted the Chinese government's commitment to maintaining a loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stabilizing growth, prices, and the exchange rate, while promoting consumption and supporting the private economy [1][9]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [1][3]. - There is still room for interest rate cuts, with the current average statutory deposit reserve ratio at 6.3%, indicating potential for further reductions [3][4]. - The PBOC aims to create a conducive monetary environment for price recovery through integrated policies [3][4]. Structural Measures - The PBOC announced eight key measures to optimize economic structure, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates and an increase in the quota for agricultural and small business loans by 500 billion yuan [5]. - A dedicated quota of 1 trillion yuan will be set for loans to private enterprises, emphasizing support for small and medium-sized private businesses [5]. Exchange Rate Policy - The Chinese exchange rate policy remains clear and consistent, with a focus on maintaining stability at a reasonable level [6]. - Positive factors supporting the exchange rate include a large domestic market, complete industrial chains, and ongoing economic improvements [6]. - Approximately 60% of import and export trade is minimally affected by exchange rate fluctuations, with a growing trend towards using the yuan for cross-border trade settlements [6]. Foreign Exchange Market - In 2025, the foreign exchange market transaction volume reached 42.6 trillion USD, with the corporate foreign exchange hedging ratio rising to 30%, both historical highs [7]. - The foreign exchange market is expected to operate steadily in 2026, with cross-border capital flows remaining orderly [7]. Consumer Support Policies - The PBOC will enhance financial support for key service consumption sectors, including hospitality, tourism, and elderly care, through targeted loan policies [8]. - Measures will be taken to improve residents' consumption capacity and support small businesses, alongside efforts to lower financing costs in the consumption sector [8]. - The PBOC aims to optimize the consumer finance service environment by enhancing payment services and improving the overall consumer finance landscape [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that China's exchange rate policy is clear and consistent, with a focus on allowing the market to play a decisive role in exchange rate formation [1] - The People's Bank of China asserts that it aims to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [1] - China positions itself as a responsible major country, stating that it neither needs nor intends to devalue its currency to gain competitive advantages in international trade [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, indicated that no measures regarding the exchange rate will be ruled out, suggesting a potential response to currency fluctuations [1] Group 1: Currency and Monetary Policy - The Japanese yen experienced a short-term appreciation, with the USD/JPY exchange rate dropping below 159 following the announcement [1] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates when conditions allow, maintaining the current monetary policy path [1] - Ueda emphasized that if the economic and inflation outlook improves, the central bank will adjust the degree of monetary easing accordingly [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Most economists expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its current policy during the meeting on January 23, with many predicting the next interest rate hike may not occur until around June [1] - The depreciation of the yen has increased import costs, complicating Ueda's goal of achieving stable price growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Argentina is facing a severe currency crisis, prompting the central bank to intervene in the foreign exchange market by selling a total of $1.11 billion to support the peso, which has depreciated significantly against the dollar [1][3][4]. Group 1: Currency Intervention - The Argentine central bank sold $678 million on Friday, following sales of $379 million on Thursday and $53 million on Wednesday, marking a total intervention of $1.11 billion over three days [3]. - The peso has depreciated nearly 11% against the dollar in the past month and has seen a year-to-date decline of 30.1% [3]. Group 2: Government Response - Economy Minister Luis Caputo vowed to use "the last dollar" to defend the exchange rate and plans to guarantee payments on international bonds maturing in January and July 2026 [4]. - The government has implemented new foreign exchange controls to stabilize the currency, including stricter regulations on banks and prohibiting certain financial transactions [9][10]. Group 3: Political Context - The peso's collapse is attributed to a political crisis, following unexpected electoral losses for President Javier Milei's party, which undermined investor confidence in his ability to maintain a free-market agenda [8][9]. - The upcoming midterm elections on October 26 are critical, as they will reflect public sentiment towards Milei's economic policies and could influence the stability of his administration [9]. Group 4: Economic Implications - Analysts warn that the massive sale of dollars to support the peso could lead to a significant contraction in economic activity, potentially resulting in credit tightening and economic recession [4]. - The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) $20 billion loan has provided temporary relief but has not led to a sustainable accumulation of reserves, leaving Argentina with limited foreign exchange resources [4].