收费名额200人已经售罄，感谢大家的关注和支持。 需要开发票的，需要确认各项细节的，需要退款的，都请联系新浪财经的工作人员。 半夏投资人赠送课程依然成立： 1，所有的半夏投资人，免费赠送线上课程。 2，持有基金2年以上，或持仓半夏旗下基金大于500万以上的投资人，免费赠送线下课程。 半夏直销客户请在 工作日 联系以下两位半夏同事： 合格个人投资者，请联系 石小姐 021-68869790 专业机构投资者，请联系 奚小姐 021-68860262 代销客户请联系您自己的销售经理。 1月24日 9:30-12:30 普通人学投资的基础知识 普通人为什么要学投资? 个人投资成功的标准和成功的三大要素? 个人投资的核心风险点和规避方法? 1月24日 |5:00-18:00 普通人投资的 潜在选项和取舍的思路 普通人投资可选的资产类别有哪些? 这些资产分别有什么特征? 应该选择哪些类别放弃哪些类别? 普通人投资可选的金融工具又有哪些? 应该如何选择工具,应该规避哪些工具? 9:30-12:30 1月25日 大类资产择时和 股票市场风格选择 如何评估大类资产的潜在回报? 各类资产周期波动的特征? 如何在大类资产中做切换? ...

昨天闭门投资课的文章发出去以后，引发了很多的反馈和问题，在这里有必要回应解答一下。 我并不是要开展知识付费的收入第二曲线，并不指望靠这个赚钱。 知识付费这个领域，每年变现最高的估计也就千万。大家都知道，我不缺几千万。 这门课程是我人生中的一个意外，并不在规划之中。 从0开始学投资 文章里面已经写得很清楚，这个课程早就讲完了，PPT都是现成的。之所以会做这个课程，因为一些偶然的好感和责任心引 发。也是希望对自己的投资框架，做一个系统的再思考，做一个返璞归真的归纳和总结。 之所以愿意做成一个线下课程再讲一遍，是因为我想要一本书，自己手写太慢，口头讲课然后请人编辑整理的方式，能高效率低时间投入 的收获一本书。 书籍出版合作方，我选了中信出版社，感谢新经济事业部和财经事业部的两位老师对我都有兴趣。 2，持有基金2年以上，或500万以上的投资人，免费赠送线下课程。 如果您有兴趣，请联系我的同事们。 另外，号称自己也长得很帅擅长跳舞，也没有上过好的大学，也想学投资的男生们， 请不要联系我了。 我不可能在同一个地方摔两次跤 。 过去半年的经历，只是我人生中的一个意外插曲，帮我学习了社会和人性的多元。 我认知到，不同成长环境 ...

有人说开水烟吧，有人说开民宿。颜值最高我最有好感的那位，他的回答是： 大约半年前，我认识了几位年轻人，他们不知道我的年龄职业真实姓名，只知道我擅长跳舞并乐意买单，大家在一起玩得很开心。 有一次一起玩桌游，我问了一个问题： 如果几年后你们有了一定的财富积累，赚钱不再是紧迫需求的时候，你们最想做什么事情？ 想要学金融，学投资。 这个答案让我很吃惊，因为他们都并不知道我世俗意义上的职业。曾经他们问我做什么工作时，我给出的回答是： 做研究，研究世界运行的规律。 我的脑子被强烈的冲击了一下： 怎么这么巧 ? 他没有任何经济学基础，也没有上过很好的大学，但又有比较高的现金流收入。像他这样的人，想要学投资，其实特别难，特别容易踩 雷。 在中国金融市场，看似到处都是专家，到处都是好产品，实则大部分都是骗子，满地都是坑。他这样的人，跟很多年轻富二代一样，一旦 有了接触金融圈的动作，那都是骗子关注的重点对象。 如果没有真专业靠谱的人愿意带他，大概率他后续的悲剧： 辛苦几年存下不小的一笔钱，开始接触金融圈，然后被人骗走一大半，或者被人带着乱投，亏掉一大半。 如果他想找一个人带他躲雷避坑，教他学投资，在整个中国，我应该就是最擅长做这 ...

最近一年其实我的出镜率和发声率并不高，公众号一共只发了6篇文章，平均2个月才一篇。 上个月末参加了两个会议，讲了些市场观点，整理了一篇文章，没想到引发了一场经久不衰的大讨论。 我现在刷视频，每刷个十来条，就会刷到一条我自己，要么是转载我，要么是引用我，要么是评论我。 公众号文章写我的也不少，有才华的群众甚至还出了几个漫画，其中流量最高的一条是虎嗅的这篇。 里面其实有不少事实性错误，比如说我23年重仓纯碱，我当时并没有买纯碱，我买的是玻璃。 但是我也能看出，虽然总体基调偏负面，但作者还是想尽量客观一点的，没有一边倒的踩我，也没有恶 意看空我。 最后，关于是否应该投资我，他写了这么一段： 半夏的产品，还值得投资吗？ 李蓓在择时与多资产运用上相对还是有一定功力的，其宏观对冲策略在大类资产趋势明确且低相关的行 情中，以及在经济周期明显切换的阶段，有望通过多资产的布局，以及衍生工具的操作，来把握机会。 在当下，集中体现在宏观经济转暖、传统周期顺利接棒科技成长，那时李蓓可能会有更突出表现。如果 仍是科技成长风格主导，李蓓仍然会比较被动。 目前 PPI 仍在负增长，没有回归正增长的迹象，科技赛道倒是依旧如火如荼。李蓓继续创 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing difficulty of asset allocation in a chaotic global environment, highlighting the challenges faced by high-net-worth individuals in securing their wealth and achieving satisfactory returns [2][3]. Domestic Asset Dilemma - Over the past decade, fixed-income assets, particularly non-standard assets, have been crucial for wealthy individuals in China. However, current comprehensive interest rates are at historical lows, and non-standard assets are gradually being phased out [4]. - Real estate, once a primary investment for affluent individuals, now shows an average rental return of 2.3% in the top 20 cities, making it less attractive due to liquidity issues and high transaction costs [4]. Increased Uncertainty Overseas - The trend of investing abroad has been beneficial for high-net-worth individuals in recent years, with investments in USD deposits, US stocks, and real estate in the US and Japan yielding good returns. However, potential returns are now significantly lower, and uncertainty has increased [5][6]. AI Investment Uncertainty - Current AI investments in the US resemble past infrastructure investments in China, appearing beneficial but ultimately unsustainable due to the mismatch between cash flow and debt burdens [7][8]. - Structural uncertainties in AI investments have risen, including questions about technology paths and which service providers will succeed [8]. Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to slow significantly in the second half of next year, with AI investment being a major support for economic resilience over the past two years. However, signs of layoffs and declining housing prices in Silicon Valley indicate emerging challenges [10]. - The current high valuations and earnings in the US stock market suggest limited future returns, with a likelihood of long-term depreciation of the USD against the RMB [10]. Gold Investment Outlook - The best phase for gold investment appears to be over, with rising uncertainties and potential overvaluation based on historical pricing models [12][14]. - Recent sales of gold by central banks, particularly by Russia, signal a significant change in the market dynamics for gold [18]. Asset Allocation Challenges - The article emphasizes that asset allocation has become more complex, with increasing uncertainties regarding the safety of wealth, especially for Chinese individuals with assets abroad [20]. - The potential for major countries, including the US, to face fiscal issues could further complicate the investment landscape [20]. Investment Opportunities - Despite economic challenges, the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets currently offer some of the highest implied returns globally, with the Shanghai Composite Index trading at a PE ratio of around 13, implying a return of approximately 7% [21]. - The article suggests that even in a weak economic environment, the return on equity (ROE) for core indices may stabilize, providing a foundation for future growth [23][25]. Examples of Resilience - The article highlights examples of leading companies in struggling industries, such as construction materials and real estate, that have managed to maintain profitability and even grow amidst broader market challenges [26][33]. Future Market Outlook - The potential for a significant bull market is discussed, driven by the return of wealth from overseas and the reallocation of global capital towards Chinese assets as the domestic economy stabilizes [39][43]. - Historical patterns suggest that a low-interest environment combined with a lack of investment opportunities in other major markets could lead to a new bubble in Chinese assets [44][46].

Core Viewpoint - The article presents insights from Li Bei, founder of Banxia Investment, emphasizing the importance of self-awareness and maintaining a balanced investment strategy in the face of market fluctuations. The focus is on achieving investment success through a clear understanding of one's capabilities and the market environment, rather than chasing every opportunity [2][20]. Group 1: Market Performance and Investment Strategy - Li Bei expressed satisfaction with the performance of low-volatility funds, which outperformed the CSI 300 index, achieving returns exceeding 14% as of August 31 [5]. - The investment strategy involves a cautious approach, focusing on areas of expertise and avoiding sectors like technology and small-cap stocks where the firm lacks deep research [6][9]. - The use of the CSI 500 index futures (IC) allows for safer participation in the technology sector, providing enhanced returns while managing risk through lower volatility [9][47]. Group 2: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The article discusses the ongoing bullish trend in the stock market, suggesting that the current phase is driven by liquidity and risk appetite, with the stock-bond yield spread remaining favorable for equities [26][29]. - Li Bei believes that the stock market's upward trend is still in its early stages, with significant potential for growth as liquidity conditions improve and investor confidence returns [29][36]. - The real estate sector is identified as having a once-in-a-decade opportunity, driven by supply-demand dynamics and improved competitive landscape among surviving firms [38][44]. Group 3: Communication and Investor Relations - Effective communication with investors is crucial, emphasizing the need for transparency and setting realistic expectations to avoid disappointment during performance fluctuations [17][18]. - The approach involves allowing investors to make their own decisions while providing them with a stable framework and honest assessments of market conditions [18][21]. Group 4: Personal Growth and Market Philosophy - Li Bei highlights the importance of self-love and understanding in navigating the investment landscape, advocating for a balanced perspective towards market dynamics and personal well-being [20][24]. - The philosophy of "loving the world while loving oneself" is presented as a guiding principle for maintaining a positive mindset amidst market challenges [21][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of mindset in navigating the current market dynamics, emphasizing the need to accept and love the world as it is, rather than comparing it to an idealized version [2][4][5]. Market Structure and Mindset - Recent discussions have highlighted a divide between "old investors" and "young investors," indicating that structural characteristics of the market have become more significant than overall trends [2]. - The author reflects on personal experiences over the past two years, identifying a need for a mindset adjustment to maintain happiness and acceptance in the face of market volatility [3][4]. Understanding the Market - The market is inherently irrational, characterized by periods of greed and fear, which should be accepted rather than resented [6]. - Recognizing that bubbles and corrections are natural parts of the market can lead to a more enjoyable investment experience [6][7]. Self-Awareness in Investing - Investors must understand their own limitations and capabilities, particularly regarding market volatility and the nature of bubbles [8][10]. - The author shares personal health challenges faced while trying to keep up with younger investors, highlighting the importance of self-care and understanding one's own boundaries [8][9]. Investment Strategy - The current market environment is conducive to bubbles due to low interest rates and high risk appetite, which necessitates a cautious approach [12]. - The author prefers to invest in index futures, such as the CSI 500, to gain exposure to technology stocks while managing risk and volatility [12][13][14]. - A focus on understanding financial instruments and their appropriate use is crucial for professional investors to achieve better risk-adjusted returns [14]. Market Outlook - Economic indicators suggest a potential downturn, with expectations of increased fiscal stimulus, which may lead to a shift in market styles [15]. - The author remains patient, waiting for signs of recovery in fiscal policy and market conditions that align with their investment expertise [15].

Group 1 - The article discusses the missed investment opportunities in sectors such as small-cap stocks, new consumption, technology, and innovative pharmaceuticals, leading to mediocre returns in equity markets [1][3] - A significant error was made by over-investing in industrial commodities, which have seen substantial declines [1][2] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of a scientific framework and independent research to avoid being swayed by market narratives and to maintain a stable value assessment system [4][5] Group 2 - The article highlights the need for a deeper understanding of foreign capital behavior, which has been a shortcoming in the past [13][15] - It stresses the importance of selecting stocks with alpha rather than merely capturing industry beta, indicating a shift towards more rigorous stock selection criteria [15][16] - The focus on safety and risk-reward ratios in investment decisions is emphasized, with a preference for low PB and high dividend yield stocks [18][20] Group 3 - The article outlines the current investment strategy, which includes maintaining a significant allocation to gold as a strategic hedge against deflation and currency fluctuations [27][28] - It discusses the outlook for government bonds, indicating a preference for short-term holdings due to the negative carry associated with longer-term positions [29] - The article notes that many industrial commodities are trading below marginal costs, leading to a cautious approach in this sector while monitoring for potential opportunities [30][31] Group 4 - The long-term equity holdings are primarily focused on companies with cyclical characteristics, high dividends, and low price-to-book ratios, forming the basis of the investment portfolio [32][33] - Recent adjustments in the portfolio include a complete reduction of bank stocks, reflecting a strategic shift in response to market conditions [34]

去年年底，国内的情绪普遍对美国制度和经济乐观，对中国悲观时，我根据在北大经院校友会的发言，整理出一篇文章《从历史比较看当前的中国》： 先是分析了两个案例：一个是 80年早期日本，发展阶段和经济调整周期位置与当前中国类似；一个是50年代的美国，相对国力的水平和国人 对自己制度不自信也与当前中国类似。这两个案例都是资产价格的低点，之后都是大的上升周期。 然后提出需要用一套客观科学的指标体系来评估中国的大国相对实力，参考达利欧的大国竞争模型，用8个领域的指标综合的合力来客观度 量后，发现中国的大国相对实力依然处在上升的通道中。 最后得出结论： 存在一种可能，看10年-20年，中国不仅能实现资产价格的重估，还能实现国际博弈格局中大国地位的再上台阶。 当时，这句话对不少人来说还只是天方夜谭。到现在，仅仅过去几个月时间，世界风云突变。中国的科技实力因为一些标志性的事件开始被世界认 可。美国那边，科技创新一家独秀的境况不再。而无论政治还是经济领域，特朗普作出了一大批缺乏大国责任的风范的，完全不专业的，轻浮善变 的举动，搅乱了世界，也加速了美国大国地位的滑落。 大国博弈的格局变化来得如此迅速， 东升西降的可能性开始被越来越多 ...

感谢新浪财经，给出一个这样的机会，让二级市场投资和研究的同行们可以在年底相聚在一起。在现在这个行业的冬天，我想跟 大家分享一些我最近的思考，研究和心得体会。 最近有一件让我特别开心的事情，就是李子柒的回归。2021年李子柒停更后，基本上资本市场就进入了熊市，她现在一回来，市场碰巧也热了不少，希望 这是冥冥注定的巧合。 我是李子柒的长期粉丝。为什么我喜欢李子柒？ 首先因为我跟李子柒一样，也是园艺爱好者，我也自己打理花园。这是我的花园，我认为我的花园也很好看。 我也喜欢做美食，以前我甚至自称 陆家嘴李子柒 我在打理花园的过程中，发现养花跟投资其实非常相似，有很多共通的地方。 第一个共通点是： 颜值最高的花在冬天都特别丑，这就类似于强周期行业，有可能实现暴利的行业，周期底部都特别惨。 花园爱好者都知道有三种颜值特别高的花，被称为花园三宝：月季、绣球和铁线莲。图左边是铁线莲是冬天的样子，很像已经枯死。大部分新手看到那个 状态，会把它扔掉，实际上它并没有死掉，春天它重新恢复生机会变成右图那样的盛世美颜。 月季和绣球也是如此，冬天都特别丑，到了春天就特别美。这与周期性行业很相似，无论是航运钢铁、房地产以及我们自己的证券行 ...