一些黑粉，罔顾事实，扭曲数据，张口说瞎话，抓紧最后的时间窗口，赶紧黑我。比如下面这个。 因为他们自己也知道，越到后面，随着当期净值走高，之前的基数的下降，即便看3年业绩，也没有机会黑我了。 大家有没有发现，网络上我的大量黑粉，谈到业绩的时候，特别喜欢看3年业绩，既不提1年，也不提5年。 因为如果 看1周，宏观策略哀鸿遍野，股票策略黯淡无光，李蓓一枝独秀。 看1年，半夏业绩强劲修复，半夏平衡（中波动）跑赢沪深300指数超过15%。 看5年，虽然中间有所波折，仍然排在前1/3。 5年期业绩排名，半夏平衡（中波动），正好代表半夏旗下产品的中位数业绩。在所有50亿以上管理人的宏观策略产品，共19支中，拍第6。 在所有5 0亿以上管理人的全部各种策略产品，共401支中，排144名。 只有3年，是半夏的业绩相对最黯淡的时间窗口，黑粉们挑来挑去，选了一个最适合攻击的时间窗口，用来黑我。 前几个月，还可以说我3年微亏。但到上个月底，半夏无论高波动，中波动，还是低波动的旗舰基金， 全都创出新高。 本周市 场回调，半夏旗下产品 基本持平， 维持新高。 梁博士，2年多前，你给我发一大堆肉麻的语音，想要复合，我没有睬你。 然后你和你 ...

今年以来，半夏旗下基金的表现都不错。 3，触发风险的核心关键点，是房价和物价能否触底回升。 基于此，我做了一个情景分析。 尤其最近几天，无论全天候，量化，还是科创基金，都比较波折，持有人感受差一些。而半夏旗下的基 金，周一回撤就比较小，周二周三恢复又很快，到今天收盘，净值都创了新高。 刚才一家合作渠道的相关负责人来找我，希望我给他的大客户们再讲一遍市场观察和投资逻辑。 我建议客户们去回顾一下之前公众号的两篇文章。 客户们看一下公众号文章,还有疑问 的我来解答 (==) (+ 客户们看一下公众号文章,还有疑问 的我来解答 为什么现在应该配置半夏,押注 李蓓 配置半夏,压注李蓓。等于买 入期权,准备好诺亚方舟船 制K 5 半夏投资 可以的,谢谢蓓总。我让他们都做下 功课 中国地产的大拐点确认 二手房价格即将企稳,部分优 质地产股有巨大空间。 5 半夏投资 就这两篇就够了 =) (+ 第一篇 ，成文于去年12月 （点击可阅读原文） 为什么现在应该配置半夏，押注李蓓 主要讲了三点 1， 当前高净值群体和财富管理机构的资产配置，集中在量化多头，全天候，科创基金，海 外资产四大类。 2，存量配置结构性已经达到非常倾斜和拥 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the real estate market is experiencing a divergence in price trends, with new home prices remaining stable due to a significant drop in supply, while second-hand home prices are under pressure from increased listings [1][6][18]. - Total demand for real estate has stabilized after a decline of approximately 30% from 2021 to early 2023, with a shift in the composition of transactions, where the share of new homes has decreased from 80% to 50% and second-hand homes have increased from 20% to 50% [3][4]. - The supply of new homes has drastically decreased, with new construction area down nearly 80% from the peak in 2021, contributing to the stability of new home prices [6][10]. Group 2 - The demand for second-hand homes has been rising consistently, with transaction volumes hitting record highs over the past three years, and recently, the volume has increased by over 40% compared to the same period last year [16][32]. - Despite the rising demand for second-hand homes, prices have been declining due to an increase in listings, which has recently started to decline again, indicating a potential shift in the market [18][20]. - The rental yield has become more attractive compared to financing costs, with the average rental yield in 25 cities rising from 2.0% to nearly 2.4%, while mortgage rates have decreased from over 5% to around 3% [23][26][28]. Group 3 - The recent months have seen a significant reduction in the rate of price decline for second-hand homes, with the weekly decline narrowing from 0.3-0.4% to 0.11%, suggesting a potential market stabilization [33][35]. - Major cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou have already seen a turnaround in second-hand home prices, indicating that the market may be at a turning point [35]. - The article suggests that the recent price drops were largely due to speculative demand being forced out of the market, leaving behind more financially stable homeowners who are less likely to sell [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that investors should avoid chasing gold prices and indicates that a turning point in the real estate market is approaching, signaling a return to value investing [1] Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The article argues that the current gold prices are not favorable for investment, advising against further purchases [1] - It highlights that gold has seen significant fluctuations, and the recent trends do not support a bullish outlook [1] Group 2: Real Estate Market Insights - The article points out that the real estate sector is nearing a critical inflection point, which could present new investment opportunities [1] - It emphasizes the importance of value investing as the market shifts, suggesting that investors should focus on fundamentally strong assets [1]

今天是闭门投资会的第一天，全程顺利结束。 这个活动，算 李蓓义务劳动 ，支持新浪财经做的投资者科普活动，课程款项，全部由新浪自主收取和支出。新浪也不会给李蓓个人付劳务费用。 至于慈善信托，李蓓会自己先捐出一小笔启动资金，成立一个慈善信托。 新浪财经为了答谢李蓓对活动的支持，会捐出一部分课程所得到这个慈善信托。该信托用于助学慈善相关活动。 最后，给大家贴一些现场的图片，感谢新浪的老师请了专业的化妆师和摄影师，把我拍得挺好看。 谢谢投资人的信任，谢谢粉丝们的支持。 交流很愉快，大家的气氛也很好。 关于课程收费，然后捐款做慈善信托的事情，经我司合规的同事建议： 我司没咨询相关牌照，不参与该活动。 这个活动算李蓓个人与新浪财经的合作，为了更加严格的执行合规和避嫌，李蓓个人也不参与款项的分配和流转了。 也就是说，半夏投资和李蓓，都不从这个活动收钱。 1 A 201034 r 20171 comm and and antient 1701 ribedry numur pp 11:1 10610C (106002 200703-201703 1994Q1-2004Q1 200901 201902 197804 198919 ...

很高兴，明天就要跟大家在闭门投资课见面了。 关于闭门投资课的三点通知 1，地址变化。 由于增加了半夏的投资人，人数由200变成了350人，原来预定的会场不够大，李蓓线下投资闭门课地点修改为上海锦江汤臣洲际大酒店，上海市浦东新区 张杨路777号，二楼汤臣堂厅。 2，现在新空出了20个名额。 3，本来我想打扮得好看一些，穿着高跟鞋和小裙子去讲课的。但是昨天我穿着高跟鞋去外地开会，晚上回来竟然磨破了脚。明天我只能穿着柔软的平底 鞋和长裤去上课了。我考虑带着裙子和鞋子，合照环节换一下。 关于XHS 小红薯的说明 2天前我开通了XHS账号，然而3个小时之后就被封了，封2周。 据分析，可能是因为有人留言问我地产怎么看。我说：大概率2个季度内见底，下周不忙了我会发视频说明，也会发公众号文章。因为公众号这几个字， XHS认为我违规引流。我以前不怎么用，不知道还有这种限制。感觉很无语，这不是典型的垄断行为吗？ 收到了很多私信，没法回复，不是我没有礼貌。大家见谅，后面一段时间就不要给我发XHS私信了。 关于房地产的看法 大家都很关心，今天来不及发长文，简单说一下。 过去两年房地产的核心矛盾是二手房供应的持续大幅上升。而这一点过去 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of investment education for ordinary individuals, highlighting various courses and resources available to enhance their investment knowledge and skills [5][6][7]. Group 1: Course Offerings - The article announces that all investors of Banxia Investment will receive free online courses, while those who have held funds for over two years or have investments exceeding 5 million will receive free offline courses [3]. - Specific contact information is provided for different types of investors to facilitate course registration and inquiries [3]. Group 2: Course Content - The courses cover fundamental investment knowledge, including why ordinary people should learn about investing, the criteria for personal investment success, and core risk points along with methods to mitigate them [5]. - Additional sessions focus on asset class selection, potential investment options, and the characteristics of various financial instruments [5][6]. - The curriculum also includes discussions on market timing for major asset classes, stock market style selection, and identifying individual stock opportunities and risks [6]. Group 3: Learning Outcomes - Participants will learn about the investment framework and stock selection logic from industry expert Li Bei, who has extensive experience in macro hedging and investment management [11][13]. - The courses aim to equip ordinary investors with the skills to identify market pitfalls and make informed investment decisions, particularly emphasizing the stock market as a core investment area [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a unique offline investment course that aims to provide a systematic methodology for investment, emphasizing the importance of understanding human nature in investment success [4][13]. Group 1: Course Details - The offline course will take place in Shanghai on January 24-25, 2026, consisting of four sessions designed to teach ordinary people about investment [16][21]. - The course will cover foundational investment knowledge, potential investment options, asset class timing, and individual stock opportunities [21][22][25]. - Attendance is limited to 200 participants, and it will be the only systematic offline course offered, with future events being annual sharing sessions rather than structured courses [7][8]. Group 2: Course Structure and Content - The first day will focus on the basics of investment, including why ordinary people should learn about investing and the core risks involved [21]. - The second day will delve into asset class selection, market timing, and understanding stock market styles [22][23]. - Each session will include two hours of thematic sharing followed by one hour of interactive Q&A, with certain sensitive content not being recorded for online courses [25][8]. Group 3: Target Audience and Accessibility - The course is offered for free to existing investors of the company who meet specific criteria, such as holding funds for over two years or having investments exceeding 5 million [9]. - The company will not engage in any paid membership systems or similar platforms, maintaining a focus on educational sharing rather than monetization [8][9]. Group 4: Philanthropic Initiatives - All proceeds from the course and future events will be directed to a charity fund aimed at supporting scholarships and financial aid for university students [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of educating individuals without a financial background about investment strategies and risks, emphasizing the need for a simplified approach to investing that can help them avoid scams and make informed decisions [3][10]. Group 1: Investment Education - Many young individuals express a desire to learn about finance and investment, despite lacking formal education in economics [2][3]. - The financial market is filled with scams, making it crucial for inexperienced investors to find trustworthy mentors to guide them [4][5]. - A structured course was developed to address the needs of ordinary people who want to learn about investment without a professional background [11][12]. Group 2: Course Content and Structure - The course covers essential topics such as identifying characteristics of potential scammers, understanding core risks in investments, and the importance of asset allocation [12][41]. - It aims to provide practical knowledge on various asset classes, investment tools, and strategies for achieving long-term returns of over 10% annually [12][41]. - The course is designed to be accessible to a broad audience, including those with no prior financial training, and will culminate in a book that summarizes the key teachings [9][10][13]. Group 3: Target Audience - The course is tailored for individuals at different life stages, including young professionals, high-income earners, and those looking to preserve wealth [17]. - It aims to reach a wider audience beyond just finance professionals, focusing on anyone interested in improving their financial literacy and investment skills [10][12]. - The goal is to empower ordinary people to make better investment decisions and enhance their financial well-being [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current investment landscape, emphasizing the potential risks and opportunities associated with macroeconomic trends, particularly focusing on deflation and its impact on asset allocation strategies [3][12][20]. Group 1: Investment Strategies and Risks - The current asset allocation among high-net-worth individuals is heavily skewed towards four core strategies: quantitative enhancement, sci-tech funds, all-weather strategies, and overseas assets, each carrying specific risks [6][7][8][9]. - The risks associated with these strategies include potential style shifts due to rising domestic interest rates and the possibility of an AI bubble burst in the U.S. [7][9]. - The article suggests that if deflation continues, the performance of these strategies may remain strong, but a reversal in deflation could lead to significant market corrections [12][18]. Group 2: Company Performance and Market Conditions - The company’s investment approach is characterized by a focus on undervalued assets with strong dividend yields and cyclical properties, which are expected to perform well even in a deflationary environment [15][16]. - The current portfolio includes industry leaders with low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and high dividend yields, indicating a strategy aimed at minimizing risk while positioning for potential macroeconomic shifts [15][16]. - The company’s performance is expected to be lackluster if deflation persists, but could significantly improve if there is a reversal in economic conditions [18][19]. Group 3: Future Scenarios - Two potential future scenarios are outlined: one where deflation reverses, leading to strong performance for the company, and another where deflation continues, resulting in modest performance [18][19]. - The article encourages investors to consider diversifying their portfolios by including the company’s offerings as a hedge against the concentrated risks present in the current market [20].