1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and secondary - market trading characteristics [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First - level Supply Rhythm - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, local government bonds worth 301.7 billion yuan were issued, including 131.9 billion yuan of new special bonds and 68 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [2][9] - As of September 12, 2025, 41.4 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds were issued in September, accounting for 6.8% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [2][9] - The average issuance interest rate of local bonds continued to rise. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds widened to 19BP, 22BP, and 20BP respectively [2][16] - In September, Guangdong, Guizhou, Guangxi, Hebei, Sichuan, Hunan and other provinces were the main regions for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of 20 - 30 - year local bonds in Guangdong was close to 60 billion yuan, and the average coupon rates of local government bonds in Hunan, Guangxi, and Jilin were above 2.3% [18] 3.2 Second - level Trading Characteristics - Last week, the weekly fluctuations of 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indices were - 0.41% and - 0.97% respectively. The decline was smaller than that of over - 10 - year treasury bonds and almost the same as that of ultra - long - term credit bonds [3][23] - In terms of provinces, the trading activity of Guangdong government bonds increased, with the weekly trading volume increasing by 127 transactions compared with the previous period. The trading volumes of local bonds in Anhui and Jiangsu decreased significantly [3][23] - In terms of trading returns, the average trading term of Guangdong government bonds was about 27 years, with an average trading return of about 2.31%. The average trading terms of Sichuan and Jiangxi government bonds were close to 25.5 years, and the average trading returns were basically between 2.2% and 2.3% [3][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and regional characteristics in the primary market, as well as the trading volume, price fluctuations, and regional differences in the secondary market [10][23]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Primary Supply Rhythm - **Issuance Scale**: Last week (August 18 - 22, 2025), local government bonds issued a total of 369.2 billion yuan, including 239.3 billion yuan in new special bonds and 73.5 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds. As of August 22, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in August reached 55 billion yuan, accounting for 5.6% of the monthly local bond issuance [10]. - **Fund Use**: "Special new special bonds" and "ordinary/project revenue" are the main areas for special bond fund investment [10]. - **Pricing**: The average issuance interest rate of local bonds continued to rise. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds widened to 23BP, 22BP, and 19BP respectively [17]. - **Regional Differences**: In August, Anhui, Zhejiang, Hebei, Hunan, and Jiangsu were the main regions for local bond issuance. Jiangsu's issuance scale of local bonds with a term of 7 years and less exceeded 50 billion yuan. The average coupon rates of local government bonds in Ningxia, Gansu, and Jilin were above 2.2% [20]. 2. Secondary Trading Characteristics - **Price Fluctuations**: Last week, the weekly fluctuations of the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indexes were a decline of 0.56% and 1.03% respectively, with a larger decline than the same - term treasury bonds and the same performance as ultra - long - term credit bonds [23]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of Sichuan government bonds decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis, with a weekly decrease of 160 transactions. The trading volumes of local bonds in Guangxi and Zhejiang increased marginally [23]. - **Trading Income**: The average trading terms of government bonds in Shandong, Sichuan, Hebei, and Hunan were over 25 years, and the average trading income was basically between 2.2% and 2.3% [23].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the supply and trading of local government bonds, covering aspects such as the stock market overview, primary supply rhythm, and secondary trading characteristics [11]. Group 2: Stock Market Overview - As of June 13, 2025, the outstanding local government bond balance reached 51.1 trillion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for over 43% and refinancing special bonds accounting for 21% [11]. - Among the special bonds with clear funding uses, the top three investment areas are shantytown renovation, park and new district construction, and rural revitalization, with outstanding balances of 1.96 trillion, 1.57 trillion, and 1.12 trillion yuan respectively [11]. - As of June 13, 2025, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong had the largest local government bond balances, at 3.39 trillion, 3.28 trillion, and 3.1 trillion yuan respectively [11]. Group 3: Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week (June 9 - 13, 2025), local government bonds worth 107.785 billion yuan were issued, including 7.072 billion yuan in new special bonds and 40.007 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [19]. - As of June 13, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in June had reached 107.094 billion yuan, accounting for 22.35% of the monthly local government bond issuance [19]. - In terms of the issuance term structure, the issuance of 7 - 10 - year local government bonds accounted for a relatively high proportion last week, at 47.28%. The average coupon rates of major - term local government bonds were basically the same as two weeks ago [29]. - The spread between the issuance rate of 30 - year local government bonds and the same - term treasury bonds narrowed to 21.71BP, and the spread of 20 - year local government bonds over the same - term treasury bonds remained at 13.9BP [29]. - From the perspective of new bond subscriptions, the upper limit of the bid rate last week decreased compared to two weeks ago, and the primary auction sentiment turned sluggish [29]. - Last week, six provinces had new issuances. Tianjin had the largest new local government bond issuance this month, at 43.427 billion yuan, with terms mainly concentrated in 10 - 20 years and 20 - 30 years. The terms of other provinces were mainly concentrated in 7 years and below and 7 - 10 years. Except for Tianjin, the issuance rates of other provinces were below 2% [37]. Group 4: Secondary Trading Characteristics - Since mid - to - late March this year, the yield of local government bonds has been in a continuous downward trend. As of June 13, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local government bonds was 1.84%, with a spread of 19.6BP over the same - term treasury bonds, at the 61% quantile in the past 24 years. The price difference quantiles of 15 - year and 30 - year varieties were 70% and 78.1% respectively [39]. - Last week, the turnover rates of major - term local government bonds increased. The 10 - year - plus variety had the highest weekly turnover rate, at 1.38% [44]. - In terms of regions, Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, Sichuan, and Zhejiang had more trading volumes last week, with over 100 transactions each [44]. - Last week, the average trading term of local government bonds was 16.08 years, and the average yield was 1.96% [44]. - In terms of the investor structure, commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary trading, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local government bond trading. Insurance companies remained the main undertaker of local government bond supply, with a total net purchase of local government bonds worth 28.701 billion yuan, of which the purchase of 20 - 30 - year - plus varieties accounted for 62.62%. In addition to insurance companies, funds had a net purchase of 10.999 billion yuan, and wealth management products had a net purchase of 15.943 billion yuan [45].