1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, covering the issuance rhythm, pricing, regional differences in the primary market, and trading characteristics in the secondary market. It shows that the issuance and trading of local government bonds have certain regional characteristics, and their performance in the secondary market lags behind that of treasury bonds and high - grade credit bonds [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Primary Supply Rhythm - During the week before the festival (2026.2.9 - 2026.2.13), local government bonds issued a total of 322.136 billion yuan, including 195.074 billion yuan of new special bonds and 44.645 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. The main investment areas of special bond funds are "ordinary/project income" and "replacing implicit debts". As of now, about 429.07 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds have been issued in February, accounting for 37.05% of the local bond issuance scale in that month [3][10]. - In terms of issuance pricing, the issuance rates of 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local bonds decreased by 0.8BP, 2.2BP, and 2.8BP respectively. The spread between new bonds and treasury bonds of the same term was slightly compressed, with a decline of less than 1bp, but the spread of the 30 - year variety was still similar to the reading in mid - January [3][17]. - Regionally, Hebei and Jiangxi were the main regions for local bond issuance in February. Among the regions with large issuance scales, the proportion of local bonds with a term of over 10 years issued in Henan and Zhejiang exceeded 80%, and the average coupon rates of the two regions were above 2.3%. In particular, the issuance rate of local bonds in Henan reached 2.4% [3][19]. 3.2 Secondary Trading Characteristics - The increase of local bonds was less than that of treasury bonds of the same term. During the week before the festival, the indices of 7 - 10 - year and over 10 - year local bonds rose by 0.13% and 0.16% respectively. With the entry of funds holding bonds for the festival, treasury bonds with stronger liquidity were easier to obtain, and long - term credit bonds were also favored by some institutions due to their absolute returns. Local bonds failed to outperform treasury bonds of the same term and high - grade credit bonds [4][23]. - In terms of different provinces, government bonds in Jiangsu and Guangdong were actively traded, and the trading volumes in Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Henan increased by more than 40 transactions compared with the previous period. In addition, in regions where the average yield was above 2.25%, the trading terms were mostly extended to over 20 years. Notably, the average trading yields of local bonds in Henan and Guangxi reached 2.27% and 2.35% respectively, with average terms of 19.9 years and 18.8 years [4][23].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and secondary - market trading characteristics in the week from February 2nd to February 6th, 2026 [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds issued a total of 579.7 billion yuan, including 134.3 billion yuan of new special bonds and 325.6 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Replacing implicit debts" and "ordinary/project income" are the main investment areas of special bond funds. As of now, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in February has reached 363.7 billion yuan, accounting for 40.3% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [2][9] - The average issuance interest rates of 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local bonds have all increased marginally. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds have widened to 21.1BP, 20.9BP, and 16.7BP respectively [2][16] - In February, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Henan and other provinces are the main regions for local bond issuance. Jiangxi issued 69.1 billion yuan of 7 - 10 - year local bonds. The average coupon rates of local government bonds in Tibet and Tianjin are relatively high, both above 2.45% [2][19] 2. Secondary Trading Characteristics - Last week, the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indexes decreased by 0.06% and increased by 0.02% respectively compared with the previous week, performing worse than the same - term treasury bonds [3][21] - The trading activity of government bonds in Guangdong, Fujian, and Hubei has increased, with the weekly trading volume increasing by 71, 29, and 22 transactions respectively. The trading volume of local bonds in Sichuan has decreased significantly [3][21] - The average trading term of Guangxi government bonds has been significantly extended, from the previous week's level to 12.7 years, a 10.5 - year increase. The average trading term of Shandong government bonds is relatively the longest, at 27.0 years. The average trading yields of Shandong and Zhejiang government bonds are both above 2.3% [3][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The introduction of special new special-purpose bonds has changed the traditional allocation logic of special-purpose bonds, and the allocation logic has become more complex due to regional economic and fiscal differences and the balance between economic development and "Three Guarantees" [4][7][18]. - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the provincial level generally follows the logic of "following the projects", but in recent years, the explanatory power of objective factors, especially debt risk factors, has decreased, and more attention is paid to management performance and local application factors. Since 2020, the quota allocation has been "tailored to local conditions and precisely targeted", showing regional heterogeneity [9][75][81]. - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the municipal level is more flexible and difficult to fully explain with objective factors. It is speculated that the resource coordination of provincial governments for municipalities will further reduce the explanatory power of objective factors [9][85][88]. - Some provinces have significant deviations in the actual allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas from the theoretical values. Some economic provinces may receive more quotas due to major project construction, while some regions may receive more funds for debt resolution [10][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Special-purpose Bonds as the Main Local Financing Method - The scale of special-purpose bonds has been continuously increasing. As of the end of 2025, the stock of local special-purpose bonds in China was 37 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 70% of the total stock of local government bonds. The net financing of special-purpose bonds increased significantly in 2020 and 2024, and the issuance scale and stock are expected to continue to rise [19]. - Special-purpose bonds can be divided into new special-purpose bonds, refinancing special-purpose bonds, and replacement special-purpose bonds. There are also special refinancing special-purpose bonds and special new special-purpose bonds for debt resolution [21]. 3.2 Deviation between Special-purpose Bond Investment and Physical Workload - In 2024 and 2025, new special-purpose bond funds were mainly invested in transportation infrastructure, municipal and industrial park infrastructure, and other fields. However, there may be a situation where "money waits for projects", and the progress of some special-purpose bond funds in forming physical workload is slow [25][30]. 3.3 Debt Resolution Factors Becoming an Important Consideration in Special-purpose Bond Allocation - The spatial distribution of special-purpose bond stocks is uneven. Since 2023, the marginal changes have reflected the policy orientation of "risk prevention". The issuance of refinancing special-purpose bonds in the western region has increased rapidly, and the proportion of debt resolution funds in key provinces is relatively high [37]. 3.4 Process and Results of New Special-purpose Bond Quota Allocation - **Principles**: New special-purpose bond quota allocation mainly considers five factors: financial strength, debt risk, construction demand, capital efficiency, and local applications, and is adjusted by a fluctuation coefficient. Overall, it follows the principle of "rewarding the excellent and punishing the inferior", but also pays attention to risk prevention [8][47]. - **Results**: There is a positive correlation between the new special-purpose bond quota and the actual in - place investment in fixed assets, but there are also some deviations. The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas can generally reflect the objective situation, but some provinces deviate from the trend, indicating that they may receive more special funds [53][57]. 3.5 Provincial Quota Allocation: From "Extensive Distribution" to "Precise Targeting" - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the provincial level generally follows the logic of "following the projects". In recent years, the explanatory power of objective factors has decreased, and more attention is paid to management performance and local application factors. Since 2020, the allocation logic has shown regional heterogeneity [9][75][81]. 3.6 Municipal Quota Allocation: From "Rewarding the Excellent and Punishing the Inferior" to "Overall Coordination" - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the municipal level is more flexible, and the overall explanatory power of objective factors is weaker. It is speculated that the resource coordination of provincial governments will further reduce the explanatory power of objective factors [85][88]. 3.7 Deviation Calculation: Which Provinces Receive More Special-purpose Bond Funds? - Provinces such as Shandong, Guangdong, Anhui, Tianjin, Gansu, and Xinjiang have a large upward deviation in the actual quota allocation from the theoretical value, while Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have a large downward deviation. Some economic provinces may receive more quotas for major project construction, and some regions may receive more funds for debt resolution [10][90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the weekly situation of local government bonds in January 2026, covering both primary and secondary market conditions, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, capital investment directions, and trading volume and turnover rates [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 117.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of 117.7 billion yuan, a 100.2 - billion - yuan increase compared to last week. There was no bond repayment. The issued bonds included 1 billion yuan of new general bonds, 87.4 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 29.2 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds, with no refinancing general bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 30 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (47%), and the proportion of bonds with a term of 10 years and above was 96%, showing a significant increase from last week. The 30 - year bond issuance proportion increased significantly, while the 3 - year bond issuance proportion decreased by about 47 percentage points [1][13]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 29.2 billion yuan were issued. In 2026, five regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 68.1 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds, all of which are special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Shandong and Liaoning have relatively large issuance volumes, with 25.6 billion yuan and 17 billion yuan respectively. This week, 3.3 billion yuan of special special bonds were issued, and as of the end of this week, 3.3 billion yuan of special special bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2026, with Qingdao and Ningbo issuing 2.2 billion yuan and 1.1 billion yuan respectively [16][19]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted - average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 21.7bp, widening compared to last week. The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted - average issuance spread at 24.3bp. The weighted - average issuance spreads of 7 - year and 30 - year local government bonds widened, while those of other terms narrowed. Shandong and Zhejiang issued local government bonds this week, with issuance spreads of 22.5bp and 18.8bp respectively [2][24]. - **Raised Funds Investment Directions**: As of the end of this week, the raised funds from new special bonds in 2026 were mainly invested in cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (47%), transportation infrastructure (14%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (10%) [2][26]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, some regions have disclosed the issuance plan for local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026, with a total planned issuance of about 2 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in January is 814.5 billion yuan. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter is 812.4 billion yuan and 1198 billion yuan respectively. Next week, local government bonds are planned to be issued worth 70.2 billion yuan, with a repayment amount of 9.3 billion yuan and a net financing of 60.9 billion yuan, a 56.7 - billion - yuan decrease compared to this week. The issued bonds will include 22.8 billion yuan of new special bonds, 8.6 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds, and 38.9 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds, with no new general bonds [3][30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 20 - year local government bonds were relatively high. The issuance spread of 30 - year local government bonds widened, while the secondary spreads of other terms narrowed. The secondary spreads of 3 - year and 20 - year local government bonds reached 13.5bp and 13.1bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past three years, the secondary spreads of 1 - year and 3 - year local government bonds had relatively high historical quantiles, at 39% and 33% respectively. Regionally, local government bonds with a term of less than 5 years in each region had relatively high secondary spreads, and the secondary spreads of 7 - 15 - year bonds in medium - strength regions, 10 - 15 - year bonds in strong regions, and 7 - 10 - year bonds in weak regions were also relatively high, reaching about 14 - 17bp [4][34]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. The local government bonds of Qingdao and Shandong had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 321 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.59%. Among them, Shandong's local government bonds had a large trading volume of 57 billion yuan, and the turnover rates of Qingdao and Shandong's local government bonds were relatively high, at 1.9% and 1.7% respectively [5][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in 2025 and the planned issuance in 2026Q1, covering aspects such as net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and trading volume [1][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 2 billion yuan, with a net financing decrease of 31.2 billion yuan. The issuance volume was 2 billion yuan, and the repayment volume was 5.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net repayment of 3.2 billion yuan. Only new special bonds were issued, amounting to 2 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (59%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds was 84%, showing a decline compared to last week. The issuance proportions of 5 - year, 10 - year, and 20 - year bonds were 16%, 25%, and 59% respectively, with the 20 - year bond proportion increasing significantly and the 10 - year bond proportion decreasing by about 11 percentage points [1][11]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, a total of 2.3097 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds were disclosed for issuance, including 2 trillion yuan of special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, and Guizhou had 251.1 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, 122.7 billion yuan, and 117.6 billion yuan respectively in special bonds for replacing hidden debts. As of the end of this week, 1.3668 trillion yuan of special special bonds were disclosed for issuance in 2025, with Jiangsu, Guangdong, Henan, and Yunnan issuing 128.9 billion yuan, 112.7 billion yuan, 76 billion yuan, and 73 billion yuan respectively [2][13][15]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 24.3bp, widening compared to last week. The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 25.3bp. The weighted average issuance spreads of 5 - year, 10 - year, and 20 - year bonds widened. Hunan and Guangdong had weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 20bp [1][24]. - **Fund - Raising Allocations**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of new special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (28%), transportation infrastructure (17%), land reserve (17%), affordable housing projects (11%), and social undertakings (11%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 17.1% compared to 2024, while cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 8.5% [2][26]. - **Issuance Plans**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the fourth quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance volumes in October and November, the total disclosed issuance volume for the fourth quarter was about 1.65 trillion yuan, with 176 billion yuan in December. The planned issuances of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the fourth quarter were 935.7 billion yuan and 713.5 billion yuan respectively. Some regions also disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the first quarter of 2026, with a total disclosed issuance volume of about 1.68 trillion yuan, including 692.5 billion yuan in January. The planned issuances of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter were 619.1 billion yuan and 1.0618 trillion yuan respectively. Next week, local government bonds are planned to issue 26 billion yuan, with a repayment volume of 8.6 billion yuan and a net financing of 17.4 billion yuan, a 20.6 - billion - yuan increase compared to this week [3][28][30]. 2. Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year local government bonds were relatively high. The issuance spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 7 - year bonds widened, while those of other - term bonds narrowed. The secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year bonds reached 19.5bp and 16.4bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantiles in the past three years, the historical quantiles of the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 1 - year bonds were relatively high, at 83% and 61% respectively. Regionally, local government bonds with a term of less than 5 years in each region had relatively high secondary spreads, and the secondary spreads of 7 - 10 - year bonds in weak and medium - strength regions were also relatively high, ranging from 13bp to 16bp [5][33][34]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared to last week. The trading volume of Xinjiang's local government bonds was large, reaching 37.5 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was relatively high, reaching 2.9%. The total trading volume of local government bonds this week was 295.9 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.54% [5][39].

Group 1 - The issuance of local government bonds in China has exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time in history, reaching 10.29 trillion yuan as of December 22, with general bonds at 2.61 trillion yuan and special bonds at 7.68 trillion yuan [1] - The special bonds include 3.09 trillion yuan in refinancing special bonds and 4.59 trillion yuan in new special bonds, indicating a significant focus on refinancing hidden debts [1] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds aimed at repaying existing debts has resumed since August, with over 300 billion yuan issued this year, highlighting ongoing efforts to manage local debt [1] Group 2 - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt limit, with 200 billion yuan designated for new special bonds to support investment and 300 billion yuan for resolving existing project debts [2] - The issuance of new local special bonds has surpassed the initial target of 4.4 trillion yuan for 2025, reaching 4.59 trillion yuan, which is 104.2% of the planned issuance [2] - The adjustment of the debt limit has favored economically strong provinces, with specific allocations disclosed for several regions, indicating a strategic approach to debt management [3] Group 3 - The 500 billion yuan debt limit has become a crucial support for fiscal spending, despite challenges from land finance and short-term revenue pressures, suggesting a potential recovery in fiscal expenditure growth [3] - The proportion of new debt limits allocated to self-auditing provinces is the highest, indicating a shift towards enhancing risk prevention in local debt issuance [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week ending December 1, 2025, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, fundraising directions, and trading activities [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 351.4 billion yuan, with net financing increasing by 199.2 billion yuan. The net financing amount was 325.9 billion yuan, with new general bonds at 8.7 billion yuan, new special bonds at 225.3 billion yuan, refinancing general bonds at 68.8 billion yuan, and refinancing special bonds at 48.6 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 10 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion (27%) this week, and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds was 76%, slightly down from last week. The 30 - year bonds' issuance proportion increased significantly, while the 5 - year bonds' decreased by about 8 percentage points [1][12]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 82.7 billion yuan were issued. As of now, 34 regions have disclosed plans to issue special refinancing bonds totaling 2.2802 trillion yuan in 2025, including 2 trillion yuan of special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, and Guizhou are expected to issue 251.1 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, 122.7 billion yuan, and 117.6 billion yuan respectively [2][15]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 20.4bp, wider than last week. The 30 - year bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 25.8bp, and spreads for all terms widened. Jilin, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia had weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 25bp [1][25]. - **Fundraising Directions**: As of the end of this week, the main fundraising directions of new special bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (29%), transportation infrastructure (17%), land reserve (17%), affordable housing projects (11%), and social undertakings (11%). The proportion of land reserve increased by 16.9% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 8.3% [2][28]. - **Issuance Plans**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions have disclosed their fourth - quarter 2025 local government bond issuance plans. Considering the actual issuance in October and November, the total planned issuance in the fourth quarter is nearly 1.6 trillion yuan, with 104.9 billion yuan in December. Next week, 108.7 billion yuan of local government bonds are planned to be issued, with a repayment amount of 48.2 billion yuan and net financing of 60.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 265.4 billion yuan compared to this week [3][33]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year local government bonds were relatively high, while those of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year bonds narrowed. The secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year bonds were 18.7bp and 16.4bp respectively. In terms of historical quantiles over the past three years, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 30 - year bonds were at relatively high levels, 44% and 70% respectively. Regionally, the secondary spreads of bonds over 20 - year in each region were relatively high, between 14 - 18bp, and those of bonds over 10 - year in medium - level regions were also relatively high [5][36]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared to last week. Shenzhen and Chongqing had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local government bonds reached 379 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.70%. Guangdong had the largest trading volume at 3.62 billion yuan, while Shenzhen and Chongqing had the highest turnover rates at 2.0% and 1.6% respectively [5][41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, analyzing the issuance rhythm, pricing, and trading characteristics in the primary and secondary markets [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week (November 3 - 7, 2025), local government bonds issued a total of 91.61 billion yuan, including 45.21 billion yuan of new special bonds and 12.73 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/Project Revenue" is the main investment area for special bond funds [3][10] - As of now in November, special refinancing bonds have issued approximately 69.3 billion yuan, accounting for 15.1% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [3][10] - In terms of issuance pricing, the downward range of the 10 - year local bond issuance rate is greater than that of the 20 - year and 30 - year varieties. The 10 - year local bond issuance rate has dropped by up to 6BP, and its spread with the same - maturity treasury bond has narrowed to 13.6BP, while the average issuance spreads of the 20 - year and 30 - year varieties have slightly widened compared to the previous week [3][16] - In November, Hubei, Yunnan, and Fujian are the main regions for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of local bonds over 20 years in Hubei reaches 9.25 billion yuan, and the average interest rate of Hubei's local government bonds with over 10 - year varieties accounting for nearly 90% reaches 2.31% [3][18] 3.2 Secondary Trading Characteristics - Last week (November 3 - 7, 2025), 7 - 10 - year local government bonds slightly outperformed the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds, but the recent cumulative increase was weak. The 7 - 10 - year and over 10 - year local bond indices increased by 0.09% and decreased by 0.03% respectively. The 7 - 10 - year variety's increase exceeded that of the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds, while the over 10 - year variety was inferior to high - grade credit bonds, and the cumulative return was significantly lower than that of the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds [4][21] - In terms of provinces, government bonds in Guangdong, Jiangxi and other places were relatively actively traded, while the trading maturity of each province was still below the level in mid - early October. In terms of trading returns, the average returns of local government bonds in each region are mostly between 1.9% and 2.25%, and the number of trading transactions in provinces with excess returns such as Hebei and Guizhou has decreased [4][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that 5Y and 7Y local bonds are cost - effective, and conducts a comprehensive analysis of the primary and secondary markets of local bonds, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, secondary spreads, and trading volume [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local bonds issued a total of 103 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 246 billion yuan due to a repayment amount of 348 billion yuan. The issued bonds were all refinancing general bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Term**: The 7Y local bond issuance accounted for the highest proportion (54%) this week, with the 10Y and above issuance accounting for 46%. The 7Y local bond issuance proportion increased by about 50 percentage points compared to last week, while the 10Y decreased by about 24 percentage points [1][12]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 2001.9 billion yuan in special bonds to replace hidden debts, with Jiangsu, Hunan, Guizhou, and Henan having 251.1 billion, 128.8 billion, 127.1 billion, and 115.1 billion yuan respectively. As of the end of this week, the disclosed and issued scales of special special - purpose bonds in 2025 are 1206 billion and 1202.9 billion yuan respectively [2][15][20]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local bonds this week was 18.9bp, narrowing compared to last week. The 10Y local bond had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 21.9bp, and the spreads of 7Y and 10Y local bonds both narrowed. Only Anhui issued local bonds this week [1][25]. - **Raised Funds Allocation**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of newly - added special - purpose bond funds in 2025 are cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (29%), transportation infrastructure (18%), land reserve (14%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocation increased by 14.2% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.5% [2][26]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 35 regions have disclosed their local bond issuance plans for the fourth quarter of 2025, with a total planned issuance scale of 896.6 billion yuan, of which 544.8 billion yuan is for October. The planned issuance amounts of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the fourth quarter are 556.7 billion and 339.8 billion yuan respectively. Next week, local bonds are planned to be issued at 32.3 billion yuan, with a repayment amount of 52.1 billion yuan and a net repayment of 19.8 billion yuan, a 4.8 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [3][30][34]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 5Y and 10Y local bonds were relatively high, reaching 17.5bp and 17bp respectively. The secondary spreads of 30Y, 3Y, 20Y, and 15Y local bonds narrowed, while those of other maturities widened. In terms of historical quantiles in the past three years, the secondary spreads of 5Y and 7Y local bonds were at relatively high levels, reaching 76% and 74% respectively. Regionally, the secondary spreads of 5Y - 15Y local bonds in each region were relatively high, all greater than or close to 15bp, and the 15Y - 20Y local bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively high secondary spreads [4][5]. - **Trading Volume**: Due to the holiday, the trading volume and turnover rate of local bonds decreased compared to last week. The trading volume of local bonds this week was 91.3 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.17%. Guangdong had a large trading volume of 12.7 billion yuan, and Ningxia had the highest turnover rate at 2.2% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and secondary - market trading characteristics [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First - level Supply Rhythm - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, local government bonds worth 301.7 billion yuan were issued, including 131.9 billion yuan of new special bonds and 68 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [2][9] - As of September 12, 2025, 41.4 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds were issued in September, accounting for 6.8% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [2][9] - The average issuance interest rate of local bonds continued to rise. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds widened to 19BP, 22BP, and 20BP respectively [2][16] - In September, Guangdong, Guizhou, Guangxi, Hebei, Sichuan, Hunan and other provinces were the main regions for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of 20 - 30 - year local bonds in Guangdong was close to 60 billion yuan, and the average coupon rates of local government bonds in Hunan, Guangxi, and Jilin were above 2.3% [18] 3.2 Second - level Trading Characteristics - Last week, the weekly fluctuations of 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indices were - 0.41% and - 0.97% respectively. The decline was smaller than that of over - 10 - year treasury bonds and almost the same as that of ultra - long - term credit bonds [3][23] - In terms of provinces, the trading activity of Guangdong government bonds increased, with the weekly trading volume increasing by 127 transactions compared with the previous period. The trading volumes of local bonds in Anhui and Jiangsu decreased significantly [3][23] - In terms of trading returns, the average trading term of Guangdong government bonds was about 27 years, with an average trading return of about 2.31%. The average trading terms of Sichuan and Jiangxi government bonds were close to 25.5 years, and the average trading returns were basically between 2.2% and 2.3% [3][23]