Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, local government bond issuance was fast - paced, with a focus on resolving implicit local government debts through concentrated issuance of refinancing special bonds, which squeezed the issuance window for special bonds to some extent [2][45] - New special bonds will take over from refinancing special bonds, with an expected issuance scale of nearly 2 trillion yuan in the third quarter. Their investment directions show many highlights, such as diversification, covering payment arrears, and investing in government investment funds for the first time [2][46] - The issuance of local bonds shows significant regional differentiation. Five key debt - resolution provinces have higher issuance costs, while some economically developed provinces have lower issuance spreads. "Self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas are the main issuers, and key provinces mainly issue refinancing special bonds [3][46] - The expansion of local bond scale intensifies the repayment pressure in some regions, and the flexibility and autonomy of special bond issuance and use increase the management difficulty. Future management should strengthen the whole - life cycle management of special bond projects and leverage the role of special bond funds [4][47] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Local Bond Issuance in the First Half of 2025 - Overall, local government bonds issued about 5.49 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 57.18% increase year - on - year, reaching a record high. Net financing was about 4.41 trillion yuan, a 135.69% increase year - on - year [6] - In terms of bond types, refinancing special bonds and new special bonds were the main types. Refinancing special bonds issued 2.15 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.16% of the total. New special bonds issued 2.16 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.35% of the total, with a slow overall issuance progress in the first half of the year and an expected peak in the third quarter [7] - New special bonds are mainly invested in traditional infrastructure, but also show many highlights, including diversified investment, covering payment arrears, and investing in government investment funds for the first time [2][11] - Special refinancing bonds issued 1.80 trillion yuan, completing 90% of the annual quota, with issuance expected to slow down in the second half of the year. Special new special bonds issued 4647.80 billion yuan, accounting for 8.47% of the total, with large issuance potential [2][15] 2. Regional Differentiation in Local Bond Issuance - In terms of overall issuance, Jiangsu Province issued the most local bonds, 5500.6 billion yuan, mainly refinancing special bonds. Shandong, Guangdong, and Sichuan issued over 300 billion yuan [25] - In terms of issuance spreads, five key debt - resolution provinces have spreads mostly above 20BP, while some economically developed provinces have spreads compressed to within 10BP [3][27] - "Self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas (excluding Hebei Xiongan New Area) issued 2.95 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for 53.73% of the total. They are expected to speed up the issuance of new special bonds in the future [31] - Twelve key provinces issued 2.15 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, mainly refinancing special bonds. Many provinces are accelerating their exit from the list of high - risk debt areas, and those that exit are expected to increase the quota of new special bonds [34][37] 3. Problems and Prospects of Local Bonds - Problems include the increased repayment pressure in some regions due to the large - scale growth of local bonds and weakening fiscal revenue, and the increased management difficulty of special bonds due to enhanced flexibility and autonomy [38] - In terms of repayment pressure, the balance of local government debts has risen rapidly, and although the average term has been extended and the average interest rate has decreased, the weak fiscal revenue may intensify the interest - payment pressure [38][39] - In terms of special bond management, there are problems such as illegal investment, false reporting, misappropriation, and idle funds. Future management should focus on strengthening investment area management, full - process management, and expanding the proportion of special bonds used as project capital [43][44] 4. Summary - In the first half of 2025, local government bond issuance was fast - paced, with a focus on resolving implicit debts. New special bonds will take over, and special new special bonds have large issuance potential [45][46] - Regional differentiation is significant, and "self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas will play an important role. Key provinces mainly issue refinancing special bonds, and provinces exiting high - risk debt areas may increase new special bond quotas [46] - The expansion of local bond scale and weak fiscal revenue increase repayment pressure, and special bond management needs to be strengthened. In the future, new special bonds will be issued and used more quickly, and investment areas may be further expanded [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week of July 06, 2025. It points out that the net financing of local government bonds decreased in the primary market, with long - term issuance proportion declining, the issuance spread narrowing, and the proportion of land reserve investment increasing. In the secondary market, the secondary spreads of 3Y and 15Y local government bonds are advantageous, and the trading volume and turnover rate have slightly increased [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 721 billion yuan, with a repayment of 505 billion yuan and a net financing of 216 billion yuan. The issuance volume and net financing decreased [1]. - **Issuance Term**: The issuance proportion of 10Y local government bonds was the highest at 21%, and the proportion of 10Y and above decreased to 69% compared with last week. The issuance proportion of 20Y local government bonds decreased significantly by about 8 percentage points [1]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing implicit debts, totaling 18,246 billion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Guizhou plan to issue 2,511 billion yuan, 1,148 billion yuan, 1,113 billion yuan, and 1,059 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 8.6bp, narrowing compared with last week. The weighted average issuance spread of 30Y local government bonds was the highest at 12.9bp. Except for the 3Y and 5Y local government bonds, the issuance spreads of other terms narrowed [1]. - **Fund - Raising Direction**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of newly - added special bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (30%), transportation infrastructure (20%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 11.3% compared with 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.2% [2]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 30 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with a total of 2.62 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in July is 12,796 billion yuan. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the third quarter is 16,585 billion yuan and 9,623 billion yuan respectively. Next week, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 2,250 billion yuan, with a repayment of 1,216 billion yuan and a net financing of 1,034 billion yuan, an increase of 818 billion yuan compared with this week [3]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3Y and 15Y local government bonds are advantageous, and the secondary spreads of local government bonds over 10Y narrowed significantly. The secondary spreads of 3Y and 15Y local government bonds are relatively high, reaching 16.9bp and 15.8bp respectively. From the historical quantile of the past 3 years, the historical quantile of the secondary spread of 30Y local government bonds is relatively high at 68%. Regionally, the secondary spreads of local government bonds over 20Y and 3 - 5Y in various regions are relatively high [4][5]. - **Trading Situation**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased slightly compared with last week. The turnover rates of local government bonds in Sichuan, Jiangxi, and Fujian are relatively high. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 5,475 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.06%. Sichuan had the highest turnover rate at 7.0%, and the turnover rates in Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, Hunan and other places were at relatively high levels, all above 1.0% [5].

Focus on Financing - Henan Province has issued 78.2 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds this year to replace existing hidden debts [1] - On June 24, Henan issued government bonds totaling 16.57348 billion yuan, including 1.8 billion yuan for general projects and 6.7466 billion yuan for special projects [1] - The refinancing special bonds amounting to 8.02688 billion yuan are aimed at optimizing debt structure and alleviating financial pressure [1] Macro Dynamics - Six departments, including the People's Bank of China, issued guidelines to enhance bond market financing support for cultural, tourism, and education sectors [3] - The guidelines encourage qualified companies in these sectors to issue bonds and promote fundraising for smart healthcare and elderly care products [3] - The initiative aims to expand consumer credit and enhance the supply capacity of consumer finance [3] Regional Highlights - Hunan Province plans to issue 17.054 billion yuan in local bonds, including 9.856 billion yuan for land reserve projects [5] - The bond issuance will be conducted through a bidding process on June 30 [5] Issuance Dynamics - Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Co., Ltd. plans to issue 2 billion yuan in public bonds, with the registration submitted on June 24 [6] - The bond will have a term of up to 15 years, with 1.8 billion yuan allocated for debt repayment and 1 billion yuan for project construction [6] - Henan Urban Comprehensive Investment Company is set to issue 2 billion yuan in bonds, marking its debut in the bond market [7] Market Insights - CITIC Securities forecasts that the issuance of new special bonds in Q3 2025 could approach 200 billion yuan [13] - The report indicates that the overall issuance of local bonds in the first half of the year reached a historical high, but new bond issuance has been relatively slow due to project commencement restrictions [13] - The necessity for accelerated new local bond issuance is increasing, with a focus on debt resolution and land acquisition [13]

Core Viewpoint - The focus of China's fiscal reform this year is to promote scientific fiscal management, aiming to enhance the systematic, refined, standardized, and rule-of-law levels of fiscal management through pilot programs in provinces like Shandong and Guangdong, ultimately achieving breakthroughs in fiscal governance systems and capabilities [1] Group 1: Fiscal Management Reforms - Shandong's government has released the "Opinions on Promoting Scientific Fiscal Management," which outlines 16 reform measures to be piloted from 2025 to 2026, with a full rollout planned for 2027 [1] - Key reform areas include strengthening fiscal resource and budget coordination, deepening zero-based budgeting reforms, and enhancing local debt management [1][2] - The goal is to improve existing budget management systems and fiscal frameworks to support high-quality provincial development [1] Group 2: Debt Management - Shandong's local government debt is approximately 3.28 trillion yuan, below the limit of about 3.57 trillion yuan, indicating manageable debt risk [2] - The Ministry of Finance allocated 6 trillion yuan in refinancing special bonds to support local debt replacement, with Shandong receiving over 370 billion yuan to help eliminate hidden debts by the end of 2028 [2] - The "Opinions" propose a comprehensive budget management system that integrates various budget types, including government debt budgets, to enhance local debt management [2] Group 3: Budget Optimization - To address fiscal revenue and expenditure imbalances, Shandong plans to optimize spending by implementing zero-based budgeting, which will break the existing rigid fiscal expenditure structure [3] - The reform will involve a thorough review of current expenditure policies, with a maximum execution period of three years for each policy [3] - The linkage of spending budgets to fiscal revenue growth or GDP growth will be reconsidered to improve fiscal flexibility [3] Group 4: Expenditure Control - The "Opinions" emphasize the need for strict management of "three public" expenditures (government spending on official receptions, travel, and vehicle purchases) and propose a dynamic monitoring mechanism for budget execution [4][5] - The aim is to align public expenditure with departmental needs while establishing hard constraints on spending [4] Group 5: Social Welfare Assurance - Ensuring the basic livelihood, salaries, and operational stability of grassroots levels is a critical task in the fiscal management pilot [6] - All counties in Shandong will establish dedicated salary accounts and expand the scope of basic livelihood accounts, with monitoring and emergency liquidity support as needed [6]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for April indicates a significant rebound in M2 growth and an acceleration in the scale of social financing, reflecting a stable and effective monetary policy that supports the real economy [1][12]. Monetary Supply and Financing - As of the end of April, the broad money supply (M2) reached 325.17 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8%, which is 1.0 percentage points higher than the previous month and 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1][8]. - The total social financing stock was 424 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous month and 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1][12]. - In April, the increment of social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, which is 1.22 trillion yuan more than the same month last year [1]. Government Bond Issuance - The acceleration of government bond issuance has significantly contributed to the increase in social financing. From January to April, net financing from government bonds exceeded 5 trillion yuan, which is approximately 3.6 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3][4]. - In April, the issuance of special long-term government bonds and refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts contributed to a net financing of about 970 billion yuan, which is approximately 1.1 trillion yuan more than the same month last year [3]. Credit Growth and Structure - From January to April, the total increase in RMB loans was 10.06 trillion yuan, roughly the same as the previous year [1]. - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 34.31 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.9%, while medium and long-term loans for the manufacturing sector reached 14.71 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year [1][6]. Impact of Debt Replacement - The replacement of local government debt through special bonds has influenced the credit growth statistics, but it does not diminish the actual support for the real economy. The adjusted loan growth rate remains above 8% [6][7]. - The issuance of special refinancing bonds for debt replacement has been significant, with over 2 trillion yuan issued in the last quarter of the previous year and nearly 1.6 trillion yuan from January to April this year [7]. Economic Outlook - The financial data from the first four months aligns well with the performance of the real economy, indicating that the effects of moderately loose monetary policy will continue to manifest [2][12]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in April was approximately 3.2%, which is about 4 basis points lower than the previous month and 50 basis points lower than the same period last year [13].