Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a weak consolidation, with government bond futures slightly declining and a mixed performance in interbank bond yields, indicating a need for further economic data to assess changes in the economic fundamentals [1] Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.07% at 110.87, the 10-year main contract down 0.02% at 107.765, and the 5-year and 2-year contracts both down 0.03% [2] - The interbank major interest rate bonds showed narrow fluctuations, with the 30-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.6 basis points to 2.3085%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.1 basis points to 1.889% [2] Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 2-year yield increasing by 1.86 basis points to 3.488% and the 10-year yield rising by 1.97 basis points to 4.167% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly increased, with the 5-year and 10-year yields rising by 2.5 basis points and 1.7 basis points, respectively [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield rose by 0.6 basis points to 3.527%, while the 10-year German bond yield increased by 1.3 basis points to 2.861% [3] Primary Market - The Export-Import Bank's 3-year fixed-rate bond had a winning bid rate of 1.6214%, with a total bid-to-cover ratio of 4.47 [4] - The Ministry of Finance's 10-year fixed-rate bond had a weighted average winning yield of 1.8627%, with a total bid-to-cover ratio of 5.48 [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 340 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 340 billion yuan for the day [5] - The Shibor short-term rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate rising by 0.2 basis points to 1.272% and the 7-day rate declining by 0.1 basis points to 1.461% [5] Economic Fundamentals - In December 2025, the PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, while the CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a slight uptick in consumer demand [6][7] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing consumer demand and inflationary pressures [7] Institutional Views - CITIC Securities noted that the issuance pace of new special bonds in 2025 is relatively slow compared to historical averages but is expected to accelerate compared to 2024, with a more stable issuance rhythm [8] - Xingzheng Fixed Income indicated that potential upward risks for local bond rates may not lead to shorter issuance terms, as the overall issuance duration is likely to remain long due to various factors [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, analyzing the issuance rhythm, pricing, and trading characteristics in the primary and secondary markets [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week (November 3 - 7, 2025), local government bonds issued a total of 91.61 billion yuan, including 45.21 billion yuan of new special bonds and 12.73 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/Project Revenue" is the main investment area for special bond funds [3][10] - As of now in November, special refinancing bonds have issued approximately 69.3 billion yuan, accounting for 15.1% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [3][10] - In terms of issuance pricing, the downward range of the 10 - year local bond issuance rate is greater than that of the 20 - year and 30 - year varieties. The 10 - year local bond issuance rate has dropped by up to 6BP, and its spread with the same - maturity treasury bond has narrowed to 13.6BP, while the average issuance spreads of the 20 - year and 30 - year varieties have slightly widened compared to the previous week [3][16] - In November, Hubei, Yunnan, and Fujian are the main regions for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of local bonds over 20 years in Hubei reaches 9.25 billion yuan, and the average interest rate of Hubei's local government bonds with over 10 - year varieties accounting for nearly 90% reaches 2.31% [3][18] 3.2 Secondary Trading Characteristics - Last week (November 3 - 7, 2025), 7 - 10 - year local government bonds slightly outperformed the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds, but the recent cumulative increase was weak. The 7 - 10 - year and over 10 - year local bond indices increased by 0.09% and decreased by 0.03% respectively. The 7 - 10 - year variety's increase exceeded that of the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds, while the over 10 - year variety was inferior to high - grade credit bonds, and the cumulative return was significantly lower than that of the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds [4][21] - In terms of provinces, government bonds in Guangdong, Jiangxi and other places were relatively actively traded, while the trading maturity of each province was still below the level in mid - early October. In terms of trading returns, the average returns of local government bonds in each region are mostly between 1.9% and 2.25%, and the number of trading transactions in provinces with excess returns such as Hebei and Guizhou has decreased [4][23]