Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily focus on the bond market and the broader financial environment in China, particularly in relation to fiscal and monetary policies aimed at stimulating economic growth [1][3][4][11]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Bond Market Trends** - The bond market has experienced a recent decline in yields followed by a slight rebound, with a recommendation to maintain caution in trading sentiment and avoid chasing high prices [2][3]. - The ten-year active bond yield faces significant resistance between 1.770% and 1.775% [2]. 2. **Fiscal Policy Initiatives** - Broad fiscal policies are being implemented, including the introduction of new policy financial tools and an increase in local government bond issuance, totaling 500 billion yuan [5][8]. - These measures aim to address the current weak economic recovery by stimulating investment demand [4][5]. 3. **Monetary Policy Coordination** - There is an emphasis on the need for monetary policy to complement fiscal measures, with potential actions including interest rate cuts and the central bank purchasing government bonds to release medium to long-term liquidity [3][11]. - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut may also influence domestic monetary policy decisions [11]. 4. **Financial Data Insights** - Recent financial data indicates a year-on-year increase in residents' medium to long-term credit, suggesting signs of stabilization [6]. - Non-bank deposits saw a seasonal decline in September, linked to stock market fluctuations and regulatory assessments [6]. 5. **New Policy Financial Tools** - New policy financial tools are designed to support sectors such as technology innovation, green transformation, consumption upgrades, and foreign trade stability [7]. - These tools may lead to a restart of PSL (Pledged Supplementary Lending), thereby increasing liquidity [7]. 6. **Local Government Bond Issuance** - The issuance of local government bonds is aimed at project financing, debt resolution, and enhancing local fiscal capacity [8][9]. - The current issuance of 500 billion yuan is a repeat of last year's actions, indicating a strategic approach to managing local government finances [10]. 7. **Market Impact of Bond Issuance** - The reactivation of 500 billion yuan in local bonds is expected to increase issuance pressure and configuration challenges in the market [10]. - The anticipated net financing scale for government bonds in October is projected to return to approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, similar to previous months [10]. 8. **Credit Market Dynamics** - The credit market is experiencing a structural recovery, with short-duration bonds performing well, particularly in the 3 to 5-year category [13][14]. - Public funds have significantly contributed to the demand for short-term credit bonds, with net purchases reaching 39.4 billion yuan [15]. 9. **Long-term Credit Bonds** - Long-term credit bonds have not fully recovered, with limited yield declines and less active trading compared to short-term bonds [16]. - Caution is advised for long-term strategies due to market volatility [17]. Additional Important Insights - The upcoming political bureau work meeting and the central economic work meeting in December are expected to provide further clarity on economic policies for the fourth quarter and the following year [3][11]. - The overall sentiment in the credit market remains cautious, particularly for longer-duration assets, while short-duration assets are viewed more favorably [17].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 一篇说清楚：Q4 政府债券供给 ❖ 1、Q4 国债发行计划有何看点？ （1）财政部 9 月 30 日 Q4 计划相较年初计划有所变化。一是，10 月份个别 期限月内发行日期有所调整，二是 30y 超长期特别国债取消续发，转为 50y、 20y 各续发一只债券。 （2）国债最新计划公布后，抛盘压力下 25 特 6 与 25 特 2 利差走扩。30y 品 种取消发行后，25 特 6 合计发行规模止步于 2470 亿元，较当前 30y 国债活跃 券 25 特 2 的规模明显偏小，市场预计 25 特 6 将难以成为活跃券，抛盘压力下 25 特 6 与 25 特 2 利差由 9 月 29 日的 9.5BP 上行至 13.20BP。 ❖ 2、10 月国债缩量：或指向年内增发国债概率不大 （1）国债发行进度：普通国债，预计剩余 1.06 万亿额度待发；特别国债，注 资特别国债、超长期特别国债均已完成发行。 （2）10 月关键期限附息国债单只规模缩量至 1306 亿元，或指向年内进一步 增发概率不大。增发国债需要经过人大常委会审批，且结果落地之前国债发行 通常出现赶进度现象，例 ...