1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a week - on - week basis this period, and it is expected that both will continue to decline significantly next period. The current local government bond spread - hunting market may be approaching its end [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period's local government bond issuance volume decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - This period (August 4 - 10, 2025), local government bonds issued a total of 165.459 billion yuan and had a net financing of 82.848 billion yuan (compared with 337.175 billion yuan and 243.062 billion yuan in the previous period). Next period (August 11 - 17, 2025), the expected issuance is 91.432 billion yuan and the net financing is - 13.736 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.23 years, shorter than 14.39 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of August 8, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 68.2% and 63.5% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 71.9% and 63.9%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 56.1%/46.2% and 58.3%/49.2%, and in 2023 it was 68.7%/66.7% and 70.4%/67.7% [2][18]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds from August to September 2025 totals 163.88 billion yuan, with new special bonds amounting to 96.93 billion yuan. As of August 8, 2025, 31 regions have disclosed the planned issuance, with 96.33 billion yuan in August and 67.55 billion yuan in September [2][22]. - This period, 4.03 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 0 yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued. As of August 8, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 79.54 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 188.18 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 94.1% [2][20]. 3.2 This period, the spread between 10 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds widened, the spread of 30 - year bonds narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate decreased on a week - on - week basis - As of August 8, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 13.09BP and 14.00BP respectively, widening by 0.68BP and narrowing by 0.10BP compared with August 1, 2025. They were at the 14.90% and 55.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.57%, a week - on - week decrease from 0.69% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Anhui, and Sichuan were better than the national average [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased this period but remained at a high level. It is expected that both the issuance and net financing of local government bonds will continue to decline significantly in the next period [2]. - The issuance of new local government bonds continued to accelerate this period. The current cumulative issuance progress is faster than that in the same period of 2024 and comparable to that in the same period of 2023 [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from August to September 2025 is 161.71 billion yuan, with new special bonds amounting to 96.43 billion yuan [2]. - The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds widened this period, and the weekly turnover rate decreased month - on - month. The current profit - hunting market for local government bonds may be approaching the end [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. This period's local government bond issuance volume decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - This period (2025.7.28 - 2025.8.3) local government bonds issued a total of 337.175 billion yuan (the previous period was 375.755 billion yuan), and the next period (2025.8.4 - 2025.8.10) is expected to issue 165.459 billion yuan. The net financing was 243.062 billion yuan this period (the previous period was 292.39 billion yuan), and the next period is expected to be 82.848 billion yuan [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.39 years, shorter than the 15.17 years of the previous period (2025.7.21 - 2025.7.27) [2][10]. - As of August 1, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 67.2% and 62.5% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 68.2% and 63.5% [2][18]. - This period, 98.7 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 45.4 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued. As of August 1, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 755.1 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1,881.8 billion yuan, with a issuance progress of 94.1% [2]. 2. This period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds widened, and the weekly turnover rate decreased month - on - month - As of August 1, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 12.41BP and 14.10BP respectively, widening by 5.65BP and 1.35BP compared with July 25, 2025, and were at the 12.80% and 55.70% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.69%, a month - on - month decrease from 0.74% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Sichuan were better than the national average [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased significantly on a week-on-week basis this period, and it is expected that both the issuance and net financing of local government bonds will decrease slightly on a week-on-week basis next period but will still remain at a relatively high level. As of July 25, 2025, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds and new special bonds is faster than that of the same period in 2024 and is comparable to that of the same period in 2023. The current local government bond spread trading may be approaching its end [1]. Summary by Directory 1. This period's local government bond issuance volume increased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - This period (July 21 - July 27, 2025) local government bonds issued a total of 375.755 billion yuan and had a net financing of 292.39 billion yuan (the previous period was 251.183 billion yuan and 152.933 billion yuan respectively). It is expected that the issuance/ net financing next period (July 28 - August 3, 2025) will be 337.175 billion yuan/ 243.062 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 15.17 years, which was longer than the 14.57 years of the previous period (July 14 - July 20, 2025) [1][5]. - As of July 25, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/ new special bonds accounted for 64.6% and 59.0% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 67.2% and 63.1%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 48.8%/ 40.2% and 52.2%/ 42.7% respectively, and in 2023 it was 64.1%/ 60.7% and 65.8%/ 62.2% respectively [1]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from July to September 2025 is 2935.3 billion yuan in total, of which new special bonds are 168.1 billion yuan. As of July 25, 2025, 31 regions have disclosed the planned issuance scale of local government bonds from July to September 2025, totaling 2935.3 billion yuan (July - September are 1341.4 billion yuan, 923.4 billion yuan, and 670.5 billion yuan respectively), of which new special bonds are 168.1 billion yuan [1]. - This period, 34.2 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 11.9 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts were issued. As of July 25, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 656.4 billion yuan (34.2 billion yuan was issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts was 1836.4 billion yuan (11.9 billion yuan was issued this period), and the issuance progress reached 91.8%, among which 24 regions such as Zhejiang have completed all issuances (no new regions this period) [1]. 2. This period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds both narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate remained flat - As of July 25, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 6.76BP and 12.75BP respectively, narrowing by 3.72BP and 3.40BP compared to July 18, 2025 (which were 10.48BP and 16.15BP respectively on July 18, 2025), and were at the 0.30% and 47.80% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [1]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.74%, which was the same as the previous period's 0.74%. This period, the yields and liquidity of 20 - 30Y local government bonds in regions such as Liaoning, Fujian, and Shandong were better than the national average [1].