1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased this period but are expected to decline next period. The current 10Y and above local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness, but the potential pressure of increased bond supply after the Two Sessions should be vigilant [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds increased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds this period (2026.3.2 - 2026.3.8) was 2724.84 billion yuan/2562.29 billion yuan (2564.20 billion yuan/1894.23 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance/net financing next period (2026.3.9 - 2026.3.15) is 1355.45 billion yuan/632.14 billion yuan [2][6]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 17.95 years, shorter than 21.76 years in the previous period [2][8]. - The issuance spreads of 10/30 - year local government bonds compared with the same - term national bonds increased to 17.45BP/decreased to 21.00BP this period (12.09/23.46BP in the previous period), and the full - field multiples increased [2][9]. - Compared with the same period in 2024 and 2025, the issuance progress of new general bonds this year is slower, but the issuance progress of new special bonds is faster. As of March 6, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 26.9% and 20.5% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 29.3% and 20.9% [2][10][12]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in March 2026 is 936.2 billion yuan, of which new special bonds are 302.7 billion yuan. As of March 6, 2026, 24 regions have disclosed the planned issuance scale of local government bonds in March 2026, with new special bonds of 302.7 billion yuan [2][20][21]. - This period, the special new special bonds issued 5.6 billion yuan, and the special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts issued 112.6 billion yuan and 0 billion yuan respectively. As of March 6, 2026, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds in 2026 was 105.5 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 792.3 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 39.6%; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts was 3.6 billion yuan [2][15][16]. 3.2 This period, the spread between local government bonds and national bonds narrowed for 10Y and widened for 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate increased significantly - As of March 6, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and national bonds were 19.90BP and 20.88BP respectively, narrowing by 2.57BP and 0.14BP compared with February 28, 2026, and were at the 52.60% and 80.00% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2][23][27]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 1.10%, a significant increase compared with 0.42% in the previous period [2][33]. - This period, the yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Qinghai, Heilongjiang, and Jilin were better than the national average [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased compared to the previous period, but it is expected to decline in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is shortened. The issuance spreads of 10/30-year local government bonds compared to the same-term national bonds changed, and the full - field multiples increased. [2] - Compared with the same period in 2024 and 2025, the issuance progress of new general bonds this year is slower, while the issuance progress of new special bonds is faster. [2] - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in March 2026 is 936.2 billion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for 302.7 billion yuan. [2] - The special new special bonds issued in the current period are 560 million yuan, and the special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts are 11.26 billion yuan and 0 yuan respectively. [2] - The spread between local government bonds and national bonds narrowed for 10Y and widened for 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate increased significantly. [2] - Currently, local government bonds with a term of 10Y and above still have certain cost - effectiveness, but the potential pressure of increased bond supply after the Two Sessions should be vigilant. [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Period: Local Government Bond Issuance Increased and the Weighted Issuance Term Shortened - The total issuance of local government bonds in the current period (March 2 - 8, 2026) is 272.484 billion yuan (256.420 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance in the next period (March 9 - 15, 2026) is 135.545 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 17.95 years, shorter than 21.76 years in the previous period. [2][9] - The issuance spreads of 10/30 - year local government bonds compared to the same - term national bonds in the current period increased to 17.45BP/decreased to 21.00BP, and the full - field multiples increased compared to the previous period. [2][12] - As of March 6, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 26.9% and 20.5% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 29.3% and 20.9%. Compared with the same period in 2024 and 2025, the issuance progress of new general bonds is slower, while that of new special bonds is faster. [2][16] - As of March 6, 2026, 24 regions have disclosed that the planned issuance scale of local government bonds in March 2026 is 936.2 billion yuan, including 302.7 billion yuan of new special bonds. [2][22] - The special new special bonds issued in the current period are 560 million yuan, and the cumulative issuance in 2026 is 10.55 billion yuan; the special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts have a cumulative issuance of 79.23 billion yuan, with a progress of 39.6%; the special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts have a cumulative issuance of 360 million yuan. [2][18] 3.2 This Period: The Spread between Local Government Bonds and National Bonds Narrowed for 10Y and Widened for 30Y, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Increased Significantly - As of March 6, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and national bonds are 19.90BP and 20.88BP respectively, narrowing by 2.57BP and 0.14BP compared to February 28, 2026, and are at the 52.60% and 80.00% historical quantiles since 2023. [2][33] - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period is 1.10%, a significant increase compared to 0.42% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Qinghai, Heilongjiang, and Jilin are better than the national average. [2][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period decreased compared to the previous period, and it is expected to increase in the next period. The issuance/ net financing in the current period (2026.2.23 - 2026.3.1) was 2564.20 billion yuan/ 1894.23 billion yuan, and the expected issuance/ net financing in the next period (2026.3.2 - 2026.3.8) is 2724.84 billion yuan/ 2562.29 billion yuan [2]. - The issuance progress of new - added local government bonds in 2026 is relatively fast. As of February 27, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new - added general bonds/ new - added special bonds accounted for 26.3% and 18.7% of the annual quota (calculated based on the 2025 quota), and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 26.9% and 20.5% [2]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period has been extended, and the issuance spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds compared to the same - term national bonds have changed, with the full - field multiples decreasing [2]. - The spread between local government bonds and national bonds for 10 - year and 30 - year terms has changed, with the 10 - year spread widening and the 30 - year spread narrowing slightly, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased significantly [2]. - Currently, local government bonds with a term of 10 years and above still have certain cost - effectiveness [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Period's Local Government Bond Issuance Volume Decreased, and the Weighted Issuance Term was Extended - The total issuance of local government bonds in the current period was 2564.20 billion yuan (2026.2.23 - 2026.3.1), compared with 3221.36 billion yuan in the previous period. The expected issuance in the next period is 2724.84 billion yuan [2][6]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 21.76 years, significantly longer than the 15.48 years in the previous period [2][8]. - The issuance spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds compared to the same - term national bonds decreased to 12.09BP and increased to 23.46BP respectively, and the full - field multiples decreased compared to the previous period [2][9]. 3.2 Issuance Progress of New - Added Local Government Bonds - As of February 27, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new - added general bonds accounted for 26.3% of the annual quota, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 26.9%. The cumulative issuance of new - added special bonds accounted for 18.7% of the annual quota, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 20.5% [2][12][15]. 3.3 Special Local Government Bond Issuance - In the current period, the issuance of special new - added special bonds was 53 billion yuan. The special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued at 934 billion yuan and 0 billion yuan respectively. As of February 27, 2026, the cumulative issuance of special new - added special bonds in 2026 was 999 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 6797 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 34.0%; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts was 36 billion yuan [2][19][20]. 3.4 March 2026 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan - As of February 27, 2026, 24 regions have disclosed that the total planned issuance of local government bonds in March 2026 is 9347 billion yuan, including 3067 billion yuan of new - added special bonds [2][21][22]. 3.5 Spread and Turnover Rate of Local Government Bonds - As of February 27, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and national bonds were 22.47BP and 20.74BP respectively, with the 10 - year spread widening by 3.46BP and the 30 - year spread narrowing by 0.66BP compared to February 14, 2026 [2][28][29]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.42%, a significant decrease compared to the previous period's 1.08% [2][35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Report's Core View - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased significantly compared to the previous period, and it is expected to decline in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period shortened compared to the previous period, and the issuance spreads of 10/30-year local government bonds over the same-term treasury bonds increased, with the overall multiples rising. The issuance progress of new general bonds in 2026 exceeded that of the same period in 2025 but was slower than that in 2024, while the issuance progress of new special bonds was faster. The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is comparable to that in the same period in 2025, with larger planned issuance scales in January and March 2026 due to the late Spring Festival. The current 20 - 30Y local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. The current issuance volume of local government bonds increased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2026.2.2 - 2026.2.8) was 5796.73 billion yuan/5789.27 billion yuan (compared to 4392.75 billion yuan/3108.54 billion yuan in the previous period), and it is expected to be 3221.36 billion yuan/3204.98 billion yuan in the next period (2026.2.9 - 2026.2.15). The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 16.12 years, shorter than 17.31 years in the previous period. The issuance spreads of 10/30-year local government bonds over the same - term treasury bonds increased to 16.63/19.59BP, and the overall multiples increased (20.8 times and 21.2 times in the current period, compared to 19.7 times and 19.1 times in the previous period) [2][9][11]. - As of February 6, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 17.0% and 11.4% of the annual quota (calculated based on the 2025 quota), and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 24.7% and 15.8%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2025 was 14.0%/4.8% and 15.7%/6.1%, and in 2024 it was 21.6%/5.6% and 21.6%/5.6% [2][13][16]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is 248.85 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025. As of February 6, 2026, 31 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 248.85 billion yuan. The planned issuance scales in January, February, and March 2026 are 84.44 billion yuan (actual issuance of 86.33 billion yuan), 68.32 billion yuan (57.97 billion yuan has been issued in the first week of February, and a total of 90.18 billion yuan is expected to be issued including the next week's forecast), and 96.09 billion yuan, compared to 39.20 billion yuan, 115.99 billion yuan, and 80.81 billion yuan in the same regions in the same period last year [2][23][28]. - The issuance of special new special bonds in the current period was 4.07 billion yuan, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts was 30.24 billion yuan and 0 billion yuan respectively. As of February 6, 2026, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds in 2026 was 6.94 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 55.30 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 27.7%; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts was 0.36 billion yuan [2][21]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed for 10Y and widened for 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate increased - As of February 6, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 19.98BP and 21.90BP, narrowing by 0.90BP and widening by 5.80BP respectively compared to January 30, 2026, and were at the 53.40% and 85.70% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][35][36]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.78%, up from 0.66% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in Shandong, Tianjin, Liaoning and other regions were better than the national average [2][41]. - Currently, 20 - 30Y local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness. Taking the 10 - year local government bond as an observation anchor, the top of the spread adjustment since 2018 may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased significantly compared to the previous period, and it is expected to continue to rise in the next period. The current period (January 26 - February 1, 2026) saw a total issuance/net financing of RMB 439.275 billion/RMB 310.854 billion, and the next period (February 2 - February 8, 2026) is expected to be RMB 579.673 billion/RMB 578.927 billion [2]. - As of January 30, 2026, the issuance progress of new general bonds is slower than that in the same period of 2024 and 2025, but the issuance progress of new special bonds is faster. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, the cumulative issuance ratios of new general bonds and new special bonds to the annual quota (calculated based on the 2025 quota) are 17.0% and 11.4% respectively [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 is approximately the same as that in the same period of 2025. Due to the late Spring Festival in 2026 (February), the planned issuance scale in January and March is relatively larger. The issuance peak of local government bonds in February may be mainly in the first week, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts will significantly accelerate [2]. - The current 10 - year local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness. Since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds in the current period increased, and the weighted issuance term was extended - The total issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased significantly compared to the previous period. The current period's issuance/net financing is RMB 439.275 billion/RMB 310.854 billion, and the next period is expected to be RMB 579.673 billion/RMB 578.927 billion [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 17.31 years, which is longer than the previous period's 15.88 years [2][11]. - The issuance spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds compared to the same - term treasury bonds decreased/increased to 8.79/16.58BP respectively in the current period, and the full - field multiples decreased/increased [2][12]. - As of January 30, 2026, the issuance progress of new general bonds is slower than that in the same period of 2024 and 2025, but the issuance progress of new special bonds is faster. The cumulative issuance ratios of new general bonds and new special bonds to the annual quota (calculated based on the 2025 quota) are 7.6% and 8.4% respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, they are 17.0% and 11.4% respectively [2][15][19]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 is RMB 248.85 billion, which is comparable to that in the same period of 2025. The planned issuance scale in January and March 2026 is relatively larger. The issuance peak of local government bonds in February may be mainly in the first week, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts will significantly accelerate [2][25][30]. - In the current period, 19.1 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 8.39 billion yuan and 0 yuan of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts and repay existing debts were issued respectively [2][23]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds in the current period narrowed for 10 - year bonds and widened for 30 - year bonds, and the weekly turnover rate remained flat - As of January 30, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 20.88BP and 16.10BP respectively, narrowing by 0.14BP and widening by 1.81BP compared to January 23, 2026, and were at the 59.50% and 57.90% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2][37][38]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period is 0.66%, which is the same as the previous period [2][44]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10 - year local government bonds in regions such as Ningbo, Qinghai, and Sichuan are better than the national average [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.21) decreased significantly compared to the previous period, and the expected issuance and net financing in the next period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) will also decline significantly. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period has lengthened. The issuance of new special bonds has used part of the 500 billion yuan carry - over quota, and the cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeds the original quota. The current spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds shows a narrowing trend for the 10Y and a widening trend for the 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased. Attention should be paid to the cost - effectiveness of 3/10/15Y local government bonds [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds in the current period decreased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.21) was 40.037 billion yuan/28.157 billion yuan (compared with 106.955 billion yuan/62.187 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance/net financing in the next period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) is 2.037 billion yuan/- 3.174 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 16.15 years, which was longer than 12.52 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of December 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 96.2% and 103.4% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it remains at 96.2% and 103.4%. The cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeds the original 4.4 trillion yuan quota by 14.95 billion yuan/15.15 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 92.0%/99.7% and 94.5%/99.8%, and in 2023, it was 97.2%/98.0% and 97.3%/98.1% [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in December 2025 is 176.1 billion yuan in total, of which new special bonds are 58.4 billion yuan. As of December 19, 2025, 17 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 176.1 billion yuan, with new special bonds of 58.4 billion yuan. The previous year's issuance in the same regions was 420.3 billion yuan and 800 million yuan, and the national issuance in the same period of the previous year was 1091.3 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan [2]. - In the current period, the issuance of special new special bonds was 1.2 billion yuan, and there was no issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts and repaying existing debts. As of December 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1366.8 billion yuan (1.2 billion yuan in the current period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts was 2000 billion yuan (0 billion yuan in the current period), with the issuance progress reaching 100%, and this year's quota has been fully issued; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 500 billion yuan carry - over quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17) was 287.5 billion yuan (0 billion yuan in the current period) [2]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds in the current period narrowed for the 10Y and widened for the 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate decreased - As of December 19, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 22.92BP and 21.48BP respectively, narrowing by 1.12BP and widening by 3.35BP compared with December 12, 2025 (which were 24.04BP and 18.13BP respectively on December 12, 2025), and were at the 72.20% and 83.20% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.77%, a decrease compared with 0.86% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Jilin, and Guizhou were better than the national average [2]. - Regarding the cost - effectiveness of local government bonds, taking 10 - year local government bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Core Insights - The total issuance of special new bonds reached 1.3583 trillion yuan as of December 5, 2025, with 7.4 billion yuan issued in the current period [1] - The cumulative issuance of refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts has reached 2 trillion yuan, with 1.1 billion yuan issued in the current period, achieving a 100% issuance progress for this year's quota [1] - Since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts has reached 270.6 billion yuan, with 50.2 billion yuan issued in the current period [1] Summary by Region - **Guangdong**: Issued 1.127 billion yuan of special new bonds in 2025, with a total of 4.66 billion yuan for the year, achieving 109.4% of the issuance target [2] - **Shandong**: Issued 472 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 3.521 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 106.0% of the target [2] - **Zhejiang**: Issued 528 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 3.12 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 111.0% of the target [2] - **Jiangsu**: Issued 1.289 billion yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 2.785 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 117.8% of the target [2] - **Sichuan**: Issued 633 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 2.388 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 110.7% of the target [2] - **Henan**: Issued 737 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 2.003 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 105.0% of the target [2] - **Anhui**: Issued 414 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 1.760 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 103.9% of the target [2] - **Hubei**: Issued 459 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 1.872 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 112.7% of the target [2] - **Jiangxi**: Issued 250 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 1.562 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 100.7% of the target [2] - **Hebei**: Issued 702 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 2.177 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 140.5% of the target [2] - **Xinjiang**: Issued 364 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 1.238 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 82.1% of the target [2] - **Hunan**: Issued 615 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 1.461 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 102.6% of the target [2] - **Fujian**: Issued 338 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 1.505 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 105.9% of the target [2] - **Beijing**: Issued 151 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 1.233 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 117.7% of the target [2] - **Tianjin**: Issued 362 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 880 million yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 98.0% of the target [2] - **Yunnan**: Issued 730 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 845 million yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 113.7% of the target [2] - **Ningxia**: Issued 91 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 213 million yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 625.0% of the target [2] Overall Summary - The total issuance of special new bonds across all regions in 2025 reached 1.3583 trillion yuan, with a total of 4.4962 trillion yuan planned for the year, achieving 112.3% of the issuance target [2] - The cumulative issuance of refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 2 trillion yuan, with 100% of the issuance target met [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased significantly on a weekly basis this period but are expected to decline significantly next period. As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 91.4% and 100.7% of the annual quota respectively, and 92.8% and 101.6% considering the expected issuance next period [4]. - As of November 28, 2025, the issuance of special new special-purpose bonds this period was 541 billion yuan, the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 27 billion yuan, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts was 788 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance of special new special-purpose bonds reached 13,508 billion yuan, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 19,989 billion yuan with a progress of 99.9%, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts since October 2025 was 2,204 billion yuan [4]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds widened for 10Y and 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate decreased on a weekly basis. As of November 28, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 17.88BP and 22.49BP respectively, up 3.54BP and 4.25BP from November 21, 2025. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.69%, down from 0.80% last period [4]. - Currently, the spreads of 15/20/30Y, especially 15Y, local government bonds over treasury bonds have certain value for investment. Since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This Period: Local Government Bond Issuance Increased and the Weighted Issuance Term Lengthened - This period (November 24 - 30, 2025), the total issuance/net financing of local government bonds was 351.359 billion yuan/326.212 billion yuan (last period was 184.659 billion yuan/126.343 billion yuan), and next period (December 1 - 7, 2025), the expected issuance/net financing is 108.717 billion yuan/60.494 billion yuan [4][11]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 15.41 years, longer than 14.30 years last period (November 17 - 23, 2025) [4][12]. - As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 91.4% and 100.7% of the annual quota respectively, and 92.8% and 101.6% considering the expected issuance next period. The part exceeding 100% may come from the 500 billion yuan of remaining quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17 [4][20]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds in December 2025 is 105 billion yuan in total, including 21.3 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds. As of November 28, 2025, 11 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance of 105 billion yuan, compared with 242.6 billion yuan and 8 billion yuan in the same regions and 1,091.3 billion yuan and 21.1 billion yuan nationwide in the same period last year [4][26]. - As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special-purpose bonds was 13,508 billion yuan (54.1 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 19,989 billion yuan (2.7 billion yuan issued this period) with a progress of 99.9%, and 32 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance (only 1.1 billion yuan of quota in Henan remains to be issued); since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 500 billion yuan of remaining quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17) was 2,204 billion yuan (78.8 billion yuan issued this period) [4][22]. 3.2 This Period: The Spread between Local Government Bonds and Treasury Bonds Widened for 10Y and 30Y, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Decreased on a Weekly Basis - As of November 28, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 17.88BP and 22.49BP respectively, up 3.54BP and 4.25BP from November 21, 2025, and were at the 42.70% and 88.00% historical percentiles since 2023 respectively [4][36]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.69%, down from 0.80% last period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Tianjin were better than the national average [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a week-on-week basis this period, but are expected to increase significantly next period. The weighted issuance term shortened. The spread between 10Y local government bonds and treasury bonds widened, while the spread for 30Y narrowed. The weekly turnover rate increased on a week-on-week basis. The current cost-effectiveness of exploring the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds is not high [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Local Government Bond Issuance and Net Financing - This period (2025.8.11 - 2025.8.17), local government bonds issued a total of 914.32 billion yuan, with a net financing of -137.36 billion yuan (last period was 1654.59 billion yuan/828.48 billion yuan). Next period (2025.8.18 - 2025.8.24), it is expected to issue 3691.50 billion yuan and have a net financing of 2088.00 billion yuan [2][4][6]. 2. Issuance Progress - As of August 15, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 71.9% and 63.9% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 73.1% and 69.3%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 58.3%/49.2% and 61.1%/52.1%, and in 2023 it was 70.4%/67.7% and 73.7%/69.0% [2][4][15]. 3. Planned Issuance in August - September 2025 - As of August 15, 2025, 31 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance of 1638.8 billion yuan for local government bonds in August - September 2025 (8 - 9 months are 963.3 billion yuan and 675.5 billion yuan respectively), including 969.3 billion yuan for new special bonds [2][4][17]. 4. Special Bond Issuance - This period, 12.4 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 1.2 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued. As of August 15, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 807.7 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1883 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 94.2%. 26 regions including Zhejiang have completed all issuances (Dalian was newly added this period) [2]. 5. Spreads and Turnover Rate - As of August 15, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 19.35BP and 11.25BP respectively, widening by 6.26BP and narrowing by 2.75BP compared to August 8, 2025. They are at the 51.50% and 34.70% historical quantiles since 2023. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.65%, up from 0.57% last period [2][21][25]. 6. Cost - Effectiveness of Spread Exploration - Taking 10 - year local government bonds as the observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a week - on - week basis this period, and it is expected that both will continue to decline significantly next period. The current local government bond spread - hunting market may be approaching its end [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period's local government bond issuance volume decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - This period (August 4 - 10, 2025), local government bonds issued a total of 165.459 billion yuan and had a net financing of 82.848 billion yuan (compared with 337.175 billion yuan and 243.062 billion yuan in the previous period). Next period (August 11 - 17, 2025), the expected issuance is 91.432 billion yuan and the net financing is - 13.736 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.23 years, shorter than 14.39 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of August 8, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 68.2% and 63.5% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 71.9% and 63.9%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 56.1%/46.2% and 58.3%/49.2%, and in 2023 it was 68.7%/66.7% and 70.4%/67.7% [2][18]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds from August to September 2025 totals 163.88 billion yuan, with new special bonds amounting to 96.93 billion yuan. As of August 8, 2025, 31 regions have disclosed the planned issuance, with 96.33 billion yuan in August and 67.55 billion yuan in September [2][22]. - This period, 4.03 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 0 yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued. As of August 8, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 79.54 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 188.18 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 94.1% [2][20]. 3.2 This period, the spread between 10 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds widened, the spread of 30 - year bonds narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate decreased on a week - on - week basis - As of August 8, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 13.09BP and 14.00BP respectively, widening by 0.68BP and narrowing by 0.10BP compared with August 1, 2025. They were at the 14.90% and 55.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.57%, a week - on - week decrease from 0.69% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Anhui, and Sichuan were better than the national average [2].