地缘政治化
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万喆:中国的存在缓解了全球贸易碎片化
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-24 22:54
中国的独特性,还体现在其全球价值链地位的提升与经济结构的持续优化。通过内部循环与外需支撑相 结合,中国在保障产业链安全与维系全球贸易稳定之间取得了平衡,从而形成了维持全球贸易联系的独 特能力。 前段时间,美国联邦储备委员会发布题为《理解贸易碎片化》的研究报告(以下简称《报告》)。这份 由多位经济学家联合撰写的报告指出,中国在全球贸易碎片化趋势中扮演了独特角色——一个逆流而 上、维系全球贸易网络完整性的关键枢纽和稳定力量。这不仅修正了关于全球贸易格局演变的简单化认 知,也从关键侧面印证了中国对全球化进程的积极贡献。 当前,"地缘政治距离"已成为影响双边贸易的重要因素。分析显示,早在21世纪初,贸易对地缘政治距 离的敏感性就已显著增强,多数国家倾向于与地缘政治立场相近的伙伴进行贸易,呈现"抱团"趋势。 《报告》指出,若不计入中国的表现,全球贸易的地缘政治分化趋势早在2003年至2007年便已显现。这 充分表明,全球贸易碎片化问题的成因与中国无关,中国的存在实际上"掩盖"、缓解了这一进程。这并 非偶然,而是中国主动突破地缘限制、构建广泛贸易网络的结果。中国已成为150多个国家和地区的主 要贸易伙伴,对全球经济增长贡 ...
欧洲刚宣布稀土喜讯,冯德莱恩转身对中国发难,中国早已留好后手,反制已到位
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-18 16:44
Group 1 - The EU has become increasingly reliant on China for rare earth materials, with a dependency rate of 98%, which directly impacts key industries such as renewable energy, military, and aerospace [4] - In September 2025, China exported 2,582 tons of rare earth magnets to the EU, marking a 21% month-on-month increase and reaching a recent high [1] - The EU is planning to impose a 50% tariff on Chinese steel and has initiated 20 anti-dumping investigations, indicating a shift towards protectionist measures against Chinese imports [1] Group 2 - The EU's recent sanctions against 12 Chinese companies, accused of helping Russia evade sanctions, have raised concerns among European businesses about the potential disruption of supply chains [1][9] - China's recent export controls on rare earth materials include a compliance review system, which could impact global supply chains and create a "valve" controlled by China [7] - The EU's Critical Raw Materials Act aims to reduce reliance on single third-country suppliers to below 65% by 2030, but challenges remain due to slow progress in domestic rare earth projects [6] Group 3 - European companies are facing production disruptions due to China's tightened rare earth export controls, with some firms experiencing a 40% drop in imports and a 15% increase in production costs [9] - The political tensions between the EU and China are creating a complex environment for businesses, as companies like those in Bavaria are successfully navigating through established "green channels" for importing rare earth materials [10] - The EU's internal contradictions regarding its approach to China are evident, as it seeks to balance geopolitical alignment with the U.S. while also recognizing the necessity of maintaining stable supply chains from China [6]