来源：北京周报 素有"世界经济风向标"之称的达沃斯论坛，今年呈现出一幅前所未有的变数。随着美国总统特朗普的高 调登场，论坛的传统议题"经济全球化与合作"，被一股强大的"美国优先"叙事所覆盖。 这是1月19日在瑞士达沃斯拍摄的世界经济论坛2026年年会主会场外景。世界经济论坛2026年年会19日 在瑞士达沃斯拉开帷幕。本届年会主题为"对话的精神"，旨在呼吁国际社会在复杂多变的国际局势下通 过建设性交流重建信任，共同应对全球性挑战。（新华社记者 连漪摄） 美国"打碎"国际秩序 "达沃斯论坛原本是一个聚焦经济全球化、推动国际合作的平台，但如今美国正试图重塑其议程、施加 自身影响力。" 洪略全球智库理事长、中国政策科学研究会经济政策委员会副主任徐洪才对记者表示， 其行为实质上背离了美国自身在二战后所倡导的《联合国宪章》精神，意图"将既有国际秩序打得'稀巴 烂'"，进而推动建立一套以"让美国再次伟大"为核心的新秩序。"美国正是利用达沃斯这样的国际场 合，系统宣扬并推进这一主张。" 徐洪才指出，美国的行事逻辑在于以"乱拳破局"的非常规方式主动出击，重塑对其有利的全球地缘格 局。 格陵兰岛是特朗普在此次论坛上的关键议题之一 ...

Core Insights - The report by the Federal Reserve highlights China's unique role in the trend of global trade fragmentation, acting as a stabilizing force and key hub that maintains the integrity of global trade networks [1][4] - Geopolitical distance has become a significant factor influencing bilateral trade, with countries increasingly favoring trade partners with similar geopolitical stances [1][4] Group 1: China's Role in Global Trade - China has become a major trading partner for over 150 countries and regions, contributing over 30% to global economic growth [1][2] - The presence of China has masked and mitigated the trend of global trade fragmentation, which began to emerge between 2003 and 2007, indicating that the causes of this fragmentation are not related to China's actions [1][3] Group 2: Economic Structure and Trade Adjustments - China's internal adjustments in imports are a rational choice to enhance the autonomy of its supply chain, reducing reliance on external sources and increasing bargaining power through diversified trade [2][3] - Exports from China are increasingly aligned with global demand, particularly in sectors like green technology and medical equipment, addressing market gaps and contributing to global supply stability [2][3] Group 3: Stability in Global Supply Chains - China plays a crucial role in maintaining high-end industrial chains globally, particularly in the electric vehicle and battery sectors, by regulating exports of key minerals [3][4] - The balance of "self-sufficiency and open supply" positions China as a stabilizing anchor in global trade and supply chains, essential for mitigating risks associated with geopolitical tensions [3][4] Group 4: Implications for Global Trade - The report emphasizes that China's role transcends being merely a connecting country; it is a key node in the global economic structure, facilitating communication and preventing isolationist tendencies [4][5] - China's experience suggests that deepening mutually beneficial trade relationships, rather than engaging in geopolitical confrontations, is the correct path toward achieving shared prosperity in an uncertain global trade environment [5]

Group 1 - The EU has become increasingly reliant on China for rare earth materials, with a dependency rate of 98%, which directly impacts key industries such as renewable energy, military, and aerospace [4] - In September 2025, China exported 2,582 tons of rare earth magnets to the EU, marking a 21% month-on-month increase and reaching a recent high [1] - The EU is planning to impose a 50% tariff on Chinese steel and has initiated 20 anti-dumping investigations, indicating a shift towards protectionist measures against Chinese imports [1] Group 2 - The EU's recent sanctions against 12 Chinese companies, accused of helping Russia evade sanctions, have raised concerns among European businesses about the potential disruption of supply chains [1][9] - China's recent export controls on rare earth materials include a compliance review system, which could impact global supply chains and create a "valve" controlled by China [7] - The EU's Critical Raw Materials Act aims to reduce reliance on single third-country suppliers to below 65% by 2030, but challenges remain due to slow progress in domestic rare earth projects [6] Group 3 - European companies are facing production disruptions due to China's tightened rare earth export controls, with some firms experiencing a 40% drop in imports and a 15% increase in production costs [9] - The political tensions between the EU and China are creating a complex environment for businesses, as companies like those in Bavaria are successfully navigating through established "green channels" for importing rare earth materials [10] - The EU's internal contradictions regarding its approach to China are evident, as it seeks to balance geopolitical alignment with the U.S. while also recognizing the necessity of maintaining stable supply chains from China [6]