"全球群聊"突然冷场，三把椅子空着，南非总统拉马福萨对着镜头耸肩："爱来不来。"台下快门狂闪，这一幕直接把G20的体面撕了个口子。 2025年11月22日，约翰内斯堡会场到点开场，美国席位没人，俄罗斯派了个副主任凑合，中国高层也没现身。拉马福萨干脆把三把椅子留下，空着拍照，比 任何声明都狠：你们不玩，我照办。 翻开老黄历，2009年伦敦峰会还是风光大场面：1.1万亿美元砸下去救市，媒体吹它是"救火队"。那会儿谁想到，16年后轮到它自己烧得焦头烂额。 当年一口气能谈成18项共识，现在只剩5条，连打印纸都省了不少。原因不复杂：各国兜里没钱，嘴上也懒得客气。特朗普第二任期开局就连退群，1月20日 刚宣誓完，扭头就走人，留下"一对一私聊"的口头禅。他把G20当超大群，直接退群改拉小群，跟英国、加拿大、日本、韩国挨个敲双边协议，美元照旧说 了算。 另一边，RCEP悄悄长成了庞然大物。15国抱团，30亿人口，30%全球GDP，数字吓人。2025年中国跟RCEP伙伴做生意，9.63万亿元人民币进出口袋，增速 4.5%，比全球平均快一大截。香港、斯里兰卡、智利排队要进群，像极了超市门口领鸡蛋的长队。 中国-东盟自贸区3.0版 ...

Core Insights - India's employment market is experiencing a rare high point, with employment growth surpassing the growth of the working-age population for the first time since the fiscal year 2021-22, and urban unemployment rates dropping to the lowest level since 2017-18 [1] Employment Growth Highlights - Employment growth has outpaced population growth, with rapid expansion in self-employment and micro-entrepreneurship in rural and semi-urban areas [3] - The female employment rate has significantly increased, with notable improvements in participation rates among rural and urban women [3] - Urban unemployment rate stands at 6.6%, while youth unemployment remains high at 13.3% [3] - Despite positive data, structural issues persist in the Indian employment market, with only 23% of non-agricultural jobs classified as formal employment, and many jobs remaining informal or self-employed, posing challenges for women and youth [3] Risks from AI and Trade - The report warns that technological disruptions, rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, and global trade fragmentation may impact India's labor market [4] - Generative AI has led to a decline of approximately 20% in hiring for business services and IT [4] - Protectionist policies from the US and China could weaken India's export industries, affecting key sectors such as textiles, electronics, and pharmaceuticals [4] - While low-skilled labor in India is temporarily protected, the digital skills gap is widening, with individuals possessing AI and digital skills earning about 30% more than average white-collar workers [4] Future Directions: From Quantity to Quality - The World Bank suggests that India should shift focus from the quantity of employment to improving the quality of jobs [5] - Recommendations include expanding formal employment by simplifying labor regulations and supporting small and medium enterprises to create formal positions [5] - Enhancing female participation through investments in childcare, transportation, and flexible work arrangements is advised [5] - Establishing a digital skills training system to prepare youth for the upcoming challenges of automation in the age of AI is essential [5] Trade Diversification - Reducing reliance on a single market is crucial to address global protectionism [6] Regional Balanced Development - There is a need to direct employment-intensive investments to underdeveloped regions [7] - The report highlights that while the recovery of India's labor market demonstrates strong resilience, the real challenge lies in ensuring that these job opportunities are of high quality, formalized, and future-oriented, thereby transforming India's demographic dividend into long-term, inclusive economic growth [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on global imports, predicting a decline in profits for automakers like General Motors, Toyota, and Stellantis, with European and American industrial companies needing to raise prices by an average of 2% to offset tariff effects [2] - Apple's production costs are expected to rise by $7.6 billion in the 2026 calendar year due to increased tariffs [2] - Non-essential consumer goods companies such as Victoria's Secret and Oxford may face millions in gross profit losses due to U.S. tariffs on China, while Canadian grocery retailers like Empire, Loblaw, and Metro may pass on these costs to consumers [2] Group 2 - China has shifted its export focus towards emerging markets, with exports to these markets growing by 95% from $762 billion to $1.488 trillion between 2017 and 2024, increasing their share from 32.5% to 42.3% [5] - In contrast, the share of exports to the U.S. has decreased from 28.8% to 18.6%, with significant growth in exports to Mexico (doubling to $90 billion) and ASEAN countries (surging to $587 billion) [5] Group 3 - Japanese exporters face risks beyond U.S.-Japan trade relations, with trade uncertainties impacting the Japanese stock market, particularly in sectors with high overseas revenue exposure [7] - The technology, healthcare, materials, industrial, and non-essential consumer goods sectors have seen the lowest returns year-to-date, with concerns over U.S. tariffs affecting China and South Korea [7] - The software and IT services sector, which relies mainly on the domestic market, has risen by 8%, while semiconductor and hardware sectors, dependent on U.S. and Chinese markets, have declined by 10% and 6% respectively [7] Group 4 - The article highlights the potential end of the dollar's dominance as a global reserve currency, driven by trade disputes and the response of economies to U.S. tariffs, which may lead to a reduction in dollar transactions and a shift in global trade routes [10] - Despite the dollar's current status as the leading reserve currency, the article suggests that the ongoing trade tensions could accelerate the process of de-dollarization [10]

Group 1 - Trump's tariff policy began shortly after taking office, with a focus on combating fentanyl smuggling and illegal immigration, targeting countries like China, Canada, and Mexico [1][3] - Initial tariffs included a 10% increase on Chinese imports, raising the total tariff rate to over 20%, followed by a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods [1][3] - By April, a "reciprocal tariff plan" was introduced, imposing a baseline 10% tariff on 185 economies, with higher rates for countries with significant trade deficits, affecting various sectors including steel, aluminum, and automotive [3][4] Group 2 - Canada and Brazil responded to the tariffs with negotiations, but Canada expressed disappointment over the impact on key industries like lumber and steel [4][5] - In July, Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods and a 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports, citing various political and economic reasons [5][7] - Brazil's government opposed the tariffs, highlighting potential damage to U.S. interests, particularly in coffee and rare earth supplies, and sought to appeal to the WTO [7] Group 3 - China also reacted by engaging diplomatically with Canada and implementing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, aiming to stabilize its economy and explore new market opportunities [8] - The tariff war has led to the U.S. becoming the biggest loser, with GDP growth forecasts downgraded from 2.2% to 1.6% for 2025, and trade deficits reaching historical highs [10] - Consumer prices surged, particularly for coffee, steel, and automobiles, increasing the cost of living for Americans and raising concerns about rising unemployment [10][11] Group 4 - The complexity of global supply chains and diverse international responses to tariffs have led to increased domestic divisions in the U.S., with strong opposition from governors and business associations [11] - Despite Trump's insistence on his tariff strategy, it appears to be isolating the U.S. further in the global trade landscape [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, stated that the fragmentation of global trade has a negative impact on global economic growth [1] Group 1 - The fragmentation of global trade is identified as a significant issue affecting economic performance [1] - Bailey emphasized the importance of cohesive trade relationships for sustaining economic growth [1] - The statement reflects broader concerns regarding the implications of trade barriers and geopolitical tensions on the economy [1]

Group 1 - The current confrontational trade policy stance of the US government is slowing down tariff negotiations between the US and Europe, exacerbating global trade fragmentation and weak external demand, which poses severe challenges to the already fragile European economic recovery [1] - The EU is willing to make concessions in purchasing US natural gas, weapons, and agricultural products but will not accept US demands regarding the cancellation of VAT, weakening digital regulation and taxation, or lowering food standards [2] - The US continues to impose a 25% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products and maintains a 10% "baseline tariff" on almost all other goods, threatening additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper, wood, critical minerals, and aerospace components [2] Group 2 - The uncertainty of US trade policies is severely impacting key European industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals, with nearly half of the EU's exports to the US in 2024 coming from these sectors [3] - Major European automotive companies like Stellantis and Mercedes-Benz have canceled their performance forecasts for the year, citing potential impacts on operating profits, cash flow, and profit margins due to ongoing trade barriers [3] - A recent internal survey by the European Pharmaceutical Industry Association indicates that ongoing tariff threats could lead to a shift of R&D and production from Europe to the US, with potential investments of €165 billion at risk in the next three months alone [4] Group 3 - Weak external demand and uncertainty surrounding US tariffs are undermining market confidence and deepening concerns about global trade fragmentation and the growth outlook for the European economy [5] - The European Commission has significantly downgraded its economic growth forecasts for the EU, predicting a GDP growth of 1.1% in 2025, down from previous estimates, due to the adverse effects of US trade policies [6] - The EU must take decisive action to enhance competitiveness and internal market integration to mitigate the negative impacts of US trade policy uncertainty on consumer and investment confidence [6]

Core Viewpoint - The National Bank of Ukraine is considering a shift from the US dollar to the euro as a reference currency for the hryvnia due to increasing ties with Europe and global trade fragmentation [1][3]. Group 1: Currency and Economic Policy - The Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andriy Pyshnyi, indicated that the strengthening role of the EU in Ukraine's defense and the volatility in global markets are prompting a reassessment of the reference currency for the hryvnia [1]. - The euro's trading share has been gradually increasing in various sectors, although the rise has been modest so far [3]. - Ukraine has historically used the US dollar as a reference currency since the introduction of the hryvnia in 1996, but the ongoing conflict has led to significant economic challenges, including a forced devaluation of the hryvnia [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The transition to a managed floating exchange rate system in October 2023 is based on the US dollar, which is used to measure foreign exchange interventions [4]. - Economic recovery in Ukraine is projected to accelerate to a growth rate of 3.7-3.9% over the next two years, driven by closer ties with Europe and a revival in investment and consumption activities [4]. - The National Bank of Ukraine anticipates receiving $55 billion in external financing this year to cover budget deficits and reserve public finances for the coming years, as future aid amounts may decline [4].