Group 1 - The statement by US Vice President Vance indicates that trade relations between China and Russia will not lead to new tariffs from the US, reflecting a victory for the pragmatic faction in US internal politics and highlighting the US's helplessness in international affairs [1][5] - The 54% tariff mentioned by Vance is composed of multiple factors, including a 20% tariff on fentanyl, a 10% baseline tariff, and a 24% pending tariff, illustrating the significant economic pressure that sanctions have placed on the US itself [3][5] - The deepening trade cooperation between China and Russia has rendered US sanctions increasingly ineffective, as Russia exports energy to China while China supplies products like cars and phones to Russia, creating a resilient bilateral trade relationship [5][7] Group 2 - Vance's remarks suggest a need for the US to rethink its global relationships, emphasizing that stability in US-China relations cannot be achieved through threats or unilateral tariffs, but rather through mutual respect and cooperation [7] - Despite a slight easing in US-China trade relations indicated by Vance's statement, the internal political landscape in the US remains unchanged, with hardliners still seeking opportunities to reinstate tough policies against China [7] - The effectiveness of tariffs as a diplomatic tool is being questioned, marking a significant geopolitical shift where past strategies may no longer yield the desired results [5][7]

3. 市场供需：黄金市场呈现分裂景象，美国市场金条和金币供过于求，投资者抛售；而亚太地区对金条 和金币需求强势增长，中国市场同比增长12%。全球央行对黄金增持意愿依然强劲，超90%受访央行认 为未来12个月内全球央行将继续增持黄金。 走势点评 1. 地缘政治局势：俄乌、以伊为引导的全球地缘政治变革仍是金价偏强基础。全球地缘政治冲突不断、 经济形势复杂多变，黄金作为"避险资产"和"硬通货"，价值受广泛关注。中国、越南、印度等新兴市场 国家官方增持黄金也是金价维稳的关键。 2. 美元走势：美元走弱和避险需求持续，推动黄金期货价格连续第二天走高。不过目前美元已处于严重 超卖状态，若后续出现反弹，一方面将提高以美元计价的大宗商品购买成本，另一方面美元本身也可能 成为黄金的替代避险选择。 截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为777.1元/克，上涨0.84%。 黄金价格短期受美元走势、地缘政治和市场供需等因素影响，波动较为频繁。近期因美元走弱、避险需 求增加而上涨，但需警惕美元反弹风险。从长期来看，全球地缘政治冲突不断、经济形势复杂，以及各 国央行持续购金，为黄金价格提供支撑，上涨趋势未改。银河证券等机构认 ...