截至目前，抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的突袭行动在华尔街反响平淡。标普500指数周一上涨0.6%，原油 价格微升。部分避险资产走高，黄金和美债尤为明显。但芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)仍保持低 位，交易在16以下。 "我们认为人们忽略了宏观风险——而这甚至是一个我们此前未曾预见的宏观风险，"CIBC 资本市场股 票与投资组合策略主管克里斯多夫·哈维周一在接受采访时谈到美国对委内瑞拉的干预时表示。 地缘政治则是另一大变量。虽然美国在委内瑞拉的军事行动未对本国金融市场情绪造成冲击，但此次行 动的突发性提醒投资者：在这个经历世代性地缘政治变革的世界里，任何交易逻辑都可能不堪一击。 智通财经APP注意到，华尔街多头若想实现2026年连续第四年两位数回报，需要诸多条件配合。美国与 邻国的贸易紧张局势持续高企，经济显露疲态，三次降息后利率仍处高位，人工智能热潮也远非稳操胜 券。 当然，不确定性永远是投资者面临的风险。但随着2026年在全球金融市场正式展开，这位CIBC策略师 指出，交易员日益倾向于忽略可识别的威胁，这可能导致痛苦。 哈维指出，鉴于持续的通胀，投资者对美联储今年再降息两次的预期可能过于乐观。他还暗示，美国企 ...

Group 1 - The statement by US Vice President Vance indicates that trade relations between China and Russia will not lead to new tariffs from the US, reflecting a victory for the pragmatic faction in US internal politics and highlighting the US's helplessness in international affairs [1][5] - The 54% tariff mentioned by Vance is composed of multiple factors, including a 20% tariff on fentanyl, a 10% baseline tariff, and a 24% pending tariff, illustrating the significant economic pressure that sanctions have placed on the US itself [3][5] - The deepening trade cooperation between China and Russia has rendered US sanctions increasingly ineffective, as Russia exports energy to China while China supplies products like cars and phones to Russia, creating a resilient bilateral trade relationship [5][7] Group 2 - Vance's remarks suggest a need for the US to rethink its global relationships, emphasizing that stability in US-China relations cannot be achieved through threats or unilateral tariffs, but rather through mutual respect and cooperation [7] - Despite a slight easing in US-China trade relations indicated by Vance's statement, the internal political landscape in the US remains unchanged, with hardliners still seeking opportunities to reinstate tough policies against China [7] - The effectiveness of tariffs as a diplomatic tool is being questioned, marking a significant geopolitical shift where past strategies may no longer yield the desired results [5][7]

Core Insights - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is reported at 777.1 CNY per gram, up by 0.84% [1] - International gold price stands at 3351.0 USD per ounce, increasing by 0.04% [2] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern dynamics, are supporting gold prices as a safe-haven asset [2] - Emerging markets like China, Vietnam, and India are increasing their gold reserves, which is crucial for stabilizing gold prices [2] Currency Dynamics - A weakening dollar and sustained demand for safe-haven assets are driving gold futures prices higher for the second consecutive day [2] - The dollar is currently in a severely oversold condition, and any rebound could increase the purchasing cost of dollar-denominated commodities, potentially making the dollar a competing safe-haven option against gold [2] Market Supply and Demand - The gold market is experiencing a split; the U.S. market has an oversupply of gold bars and coins, leading to investor sell-offs, while the Asia-Pacific region shows strong demand, with China experiencing a 12% year-on-year increase [2] - Over 90% of surveyed central banks express intent to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months [2] Price Trends and Forecasts - Short-term gold price fluctuations are influenced by dollar movements, geopolitical factors, and market supply-demand dynamics [3] - Long-term support for gold prices is expected from ongoing geopolitical conflicts, complex economic conditions, and central banks' continued gold purchases [3] - Institutions like Galaxy Securities predict that COMEX gold prices may steadily break through 3300 USD per ounce, with extreme scenarios potentially reaching 3500 USD per ounce [3]