地缘经济权力

Search documents
地缘经济论 | 第十章 产业创新:从国家竞争力看并行产业发展
中金点睛· 2025-09-27 00:06
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of parallel industries in China and the U.S., highlighting their respective strengths and challenges, particularly in the context of geopolitical economic power and the need for China to enhance its domestic demand and international competitiveness in sectors like AI, platform economy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and commercial aerospace [3][5][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Parallel Industries and Geopolitical Economic Power - Parallel industries are defined as sectors where both China and the U.S. have their strengths and are developing concurrently, such as AI, platform economy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and commercial aerospace [3][5]. - From a geopolitical economic perspective, competition in these industries is not just about business rivalry but also about enhancing national economic power [10]. 2. Challenges Facing China's Parallel Industries - China's parallel industries face challenges including weak domestic demand, limited external market expansion, significant financing constraints, and a need to improve its influence over technical standards [3][10]. - The primary contradiction is insufficient demand, necessitating strategies to expand market demand, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises [3][10]. 3. Sector-Specific Analysis AI - AI is viewed as a critical technology for national competitiveness, with significant potential to enhance productivity [11]. - The U.S. has established a strong military application for AI, emphasizing the need to maintain leadership in this field [11]. Platform Economy - The platform economy is crucial in the digital age, influencing information dissemination and resource allocation [12]. - Chinese platforms like Alipay and WeChat are leading domestically but face challenges in international expansion due to reliance on the SWIFT system [12]. Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the strategic value of pharmaceutical innovation, with countries that control vaccines and treatments gaining significant geopolitical power [13]. - China's pharmaceutical market is growing, but it still lags behind the U.S. in terms of innovation and market share [23]. Commercial Aerospace - The rise of commercial aerospace has lowered entry barriers, allowing private companies to participate in satellite manufacturing and launching [14]. - The global space economy is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, with significant military applications [14]. 4. Demand-Side Challenges - Insufficient demand is a key constraint on the development of China's parallel industries, with factors such as market saturation and low payment willingness among consumers [31][33]. - The platform economy faces user saturation, while commercial aerospace relies heavily on public sector orders, limiting private sector growth [33][34]. 5. Supply-Side Issues - The lack of vibrant capital markets and insufficient technical standard influence are significant challenges for innovation in parallel industries [52][53]. - The number of new unicorns in sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals has declined, indicating reduced market vitality [55].
地缘经济论 | 第九章 应对卡脖子:从重供给到供需并重
中金点睛· 2025-09-25 23:57
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of geopolitical economic power, particularly how developed countries' strategies to restrict emerging economies can backfire, especially when the latter are large nations. It emphasizes the importance of supply and demand dynamics in innovation and the potential for emerging economies to leverage their scale advantages to overcome technological constraints imposed by developed nations [2][9]. Group 1: Geopolitical Economic Strategies - The U.S. has expanded its restrictions on China's semiconductor industry, moving from targeting specific products to a broader range of advanced technologies, reflecting a competitive geopolitical strategy [4][30]. - The Biden administration has continued the Trump-era strategy of restricting advanced AI chip exports to China, indicating a persistent focus on maintaining U.S. dominance in high-tech sectors [4][30]. - Recent changes in U.S. export policies, including the lifting of restrictions on EDA software and commercial aircraft engines, suggest a fluctuating approach to geopolitical economic power, influenced by broader economic considerations [7][30]. Group 2: Supply-Side and Demand-Side Dynamics - The article highlights the importance of a "large enterprise + large bank + large government" model for innovation in emerging economies, which can effectively address technological constraints imposed by developed nations [14][15]. - China's semiconductor industry has seen significant advancements in R&D spending and patent filings, indicating a shift towards self-sufficiency and innovation in response to external pressures [43][45]. - The demand-side advantages of large emerging economies can stimulate domestic innovation by providing substantial market feedback and incentives for local enterprises to develop competitive products [15][22]. Group 3: Case Studies and Historical Context - The article cites China's rapid advancement in mobile communication technology as a successful example of leveraging domestic market size and government support to overcome technological gaps with developed nations [16][17]. - Historical instances of geopolitical economic strategies show that the effectiveness of export restrictions often depends on the relative economic size of the countries involved, with larger economies being less susceptible to such measures [30][32]. - The U.S. semiconductor industry faces potential declines in market share and revenue due to its restrictive policies against China, which could undermine its own innovation capabilities [39][40].