马建堂列出了一组数据：以2024年我国人均GDP约1.35万美元为基础，假定到2035年人均 GDP达到2万美元（中等发达国家的门槛水平），需要增加6500美元，剩下的11年年均需增长 3.7%；若要达到2.3万美元（15个国家的平均水平），需要增加9500美元，剩下11年每年要增 长5%； 若再加码，到2035年人均GDP达到2.5万美元，需要增加1.15万美元，剩下11年平均 每年要增长5.7%。 "事实上，我国总人口已连续3年负增长，如果GDP能平均增长5%左右，人均GDP增长速度会 比5%更高一点。"马建堂表示，所以，不考虑汇率问题和未来11年出现大的通货膨胀问题，按 照目前和未来实际情况看，预测到2035年我国人均GDP达到2.3万美元是完全可能的，为此要 按照党中央规划的目标努力奋斗。 记者丨 冉黎黎 编辑丨李博 12月16日，"国是论坛：2025年会"在北京举行，论坛以"新格局·新动能"为主题。国务院发展 研究中心原党组书记马建堂在论坛上表示，如果GDP能平均增长5%左右，不考虑汇率问题和 未来11年出现大的通货膨胀问题，按照目前和未来实际情况看，预测到2035年我国人均GDP 达到2.3万美元 ...

Group 1 - The Provincial Propaganda Team is conducting in-depth presentations on the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session to promote its implementation in Liaoning [1][2] - The presentations emphasize the significance of the session and the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" in achieving socialist modernization [1][2] - Reports include systematic interpretations of the guiding principles, main objectives, strategic tasks, and major initiatives for economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2] Group 2 - Presentations are being held in various locations including Shenyang, Fushun, Huludao, and the Shenyang-Fushun Demonstration Zone, with different speakers addressing local audiences [1][2] - The use of vivid examples and detailed data is highlighted to enhance understanding and application of the session's spirit [2] - Engagement with community leaders and residents is part of the initiative to ensure the learning outcomes are translated into practical measures for high-quality development [2]

第一，实现社会主义现代化是一个阶梯式递进、不断发展进步的历史过程。科学制定和接续实施五年规 划，是我们党治国理政一条重要经验，也是中国特色社会主义一个重要政治优势。改革开放之初，我们 党确定到本世纪中叶基本实现社会主义现代化的目标，此后每个五年规划都围绕这一目标来制定和实 施。党的十九大提出到本世纪中叶全面建成社会主义现代化强国"两步走"的战略安排，综合考虑我国改 革开放以来的发展成就和现实条件，将基本实现社会主义现代化的时间提前到2035年。党的二十大明确 了全面建成社会主义现代化强国、实现第二个百年奋斗目标，以中国式现代化全面推进中华民族伟大复 兴的中心任务。做好"十五五"时期经济社会发展工作，必须紧紧围绕新时代新征程党的中心任务，锚定 到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化的战略目标，逐个领域对标对表、盘点算账，明确思路、完善举措， 不懈努力、接续奋斗。 第二，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期。从全面建成小康社 会、实现第一个百年奋斗目标，到基本实现社会主义现代化，需要用15年时间、通过实施3个五年规划 来完成。其中，"十四五"是开局起步时期，"十五五"是夯实基础、全面发力 ...

第三，"十五五"时期要巩固拓展优势、破除瓶颈制约、补强短板弱项，在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略主 动，推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略任务取得重大突破，为基本实现社会主义现代化奠定更加坚实的 基础。做好"十五五"时期经济社会发展工作，要立足国际国内形势发生的重大变化，坚持问题导向和目 标导向相结合，精准聚焦、牢牢锁定对现代化整体进程牵一发而动全身的重点领域、关键环节，全力以 赴、攻坚拔寨。对于需要在"十五五"时期完成的标志性、战略性任务，比如重点领域关键核心技术快速 突破、高水平对外开放体制机制更加健全、碳排放达峰、如期实现建军一百年奋斗目标等，要采取有力 有效措施，确保圆满完成。对于到2035年需要完成的标志性、战略性任务，比如人均国内生产总值达到 中等发达国家水平，实现高水平科技自立自强，基本实现新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化， 建成教育强国、科技强国、人才强国、文化强国、体育强国、健康中国，基本公共服务实现均等化，基 本实现国防和军队现代化等，要抓住关键性、决定性因素，把握好节奏和进度，集中力量、加大投入， 确保在"十五五"时期取得重大突破和决定性进展。 第一，实现社会主义现代化是一个阶梯式递进、不断发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding and implementing the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, focusing on the significant role of the "14th Five-Year Plan" in achieving socialist modernization [1] Group 1: Major Significance of the Meeting - The report highlights the profound significance of the meeting and the need to accurately grasp the important position of the "14th Five-Year Plan" in the process of achieving socialist modernization [1] Group 2: Economic and Social Development Guidelines - The report provides a comprehensive understanding of the guiding principles, main objectives, strategic tasks, and major initiatives for economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] Group 3: Strengthening Party Leadership - The report stresses the necessity to uphold and strengthen the comprehensive leadership of the Party, emphasizing the decisive significance of the "two establishments" and the importance of the "two safeguards" [1] Group 4: Engagement with Educational Institutions - Following the report, there was an interactive session with students and faculty at Zhejiang University, focusing on the spirit of the meeting, particularly regarding the construction of world-class universities and the integrated development of education, technology, and talent [1]

Core Points - The article discusses the significance of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and the key messages conveyed by Chen Wenqing, a member of the Central Propaganda Group and Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission [1] - It emphasizes the importance of the "two establishments" as a political guarantee for advancing Chinese-style modernization and ensuring long-term national stability [1] Summary by Sections Major Significance - The session highlights the critical role of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period in achieving socialist modernization [1] - It outlines the guiding ideology, major principles, primary goals, strategic tasks, and fundamental guarantees for economic and social development during this period [1] Implementation Requirements - The political and legal institutions are urged to integrate the study and implementation of the session's spirit with Xi Jinping's thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era and the rule of law [1] - Focus areas include maintaining the highest political principle of "two safeguards," the theme of high-quality development, a people-centered approach, and the balance between development and security [1] Goals and Values - The session stresses the pursuit of fairness and justice as a core value and emphasizes the importance of the Party's self-revolution as a powerful tool [1] - It calls for comprehensive performance of duties and a commitment to building a higher level of a safe and law-based China, providing strong support for decisive progress in achieving socialist modernization [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for laying the foundation for achieving socialist modernization and advancing comprehensive development [1][3] Group 1: Economic and Social Development Strategy - The plan aims to scientifically determine strategic tasks and measures across various fields to meet the goals of socialist modernization [1][3] - Focus will be on key areas and links that affect high-quality development, consolidating advantages, breaking bottlenecks, and strengthening weaknesses [3][4] - The current development context includes both strategic opportunities and risks, necessitating close monitoring and precise assessment of international situations [1][3] Group 2: Technological Independence and Innovation - High-level technological self-reliance is emphasized as a strategic support for high-quality development [3][4] - The plan includes promoting education, technology, and talent development, enhancing basic research, and improving independent innovation capabilities [3][4] Group 3: Social Welfare and Common Prosperity - The modernization approach aims for common prosperity for all people, with a focus on improving and safeguarding people's livelihoods [1][4] - Specific measures will be taken to optimize regional economic layouts and promote coordinated regional development [4] - The plan seeks to address public needs in employment, education, social security, housing, healthcare, elderly care, and childcare [4]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and its role in achieving the 2035 long-term goals, highlighting that the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for foundational work and significant breakthroughs [1][2] - The meeting acknowledged the positive economic performance in the first half of the year and indicated that macroeconomic policies will continue to be effective and timely, focusing on stabilizing market expectations and addressing risks [2][3] - Consumption policies will focus on enhancing livelihood security and expanding consumer demand, with measures such as increasing pensions and implementing childcare subsidies to boost consumer capacity [3][5] Group 2 - Investment strategies will shift towards "high-quality promotion" of key projects, moving from merely increasing efforts to enhancing quality and efficiency in construction [3][5] - The report highlights the ongoing emphasis on new productive forces in the technology sector, with a shift from quantity to quality in developing competitive industries [5] - In the real estate sector, the focus will be on urban renewal and improving existing stock rather than large-scale expansion, indicating a stabilization in real estate investment [5]