Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The polyethylene price is expected to rise due to the support from the demand side, but the price rebound may be limited because of the continuous pressure from the supply side [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. New Capacity Continues to Be Released, and Domestic Production Increases Significantly - From Q4 2024 to H1 2025, the concentration of new ethylene cracking device launches was high, increasing the supply pressure of domestic production, and the expansion was mainly in low - pressure and linear polyethylene, intensifying homogeneous competition [1]. - As of now, 343 million tons of new polyethylene devices have been put into production in 2025, and the total planned production capacity for the year is 663 million tons [1][2]. - From January to August, the maintenance loss of polyethylene in China was 323.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.03%. The polyethylene production was 2068.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15%, and the industry's operating rate has been around 75% since Q2 [4]. - There are still multiple device launches planned for the later period, mainly high - pressure and low - pressure, with limited pressure on linear polyethylene launches, and most launches are concentrated at the end of the year. The pressure on the general - purpose material market mainly comes from H1, and the production release in H1 still poses a significant threat to H2 [4]. 2. Demand in the Traditional Peak Season Remains to Be Released, and the Room for Improving the Supply - Demand Contradiction May Be Limited - The operating rate of the plastic downstream industry has further declined year - on - year this year, and insufficient demand support has been a persistent problem. During the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the demand of most downstream product industries has increased, but overall it is still weaker than expected [7]. - In the agricultural film industry, demand has further increased, and the industry is in a full - production peak season. The operating rate is expected to increase by 20 percentage points and reach its peak in early November. However, downstream factories mainly make rigid purchases [9]. - In the PE packaging film sector, supported by domestic and foreign holidays, orders have been released intensively, and the inventory preparation expectation has increased. Some export enterprises have seen an improvement in order - taking [9]. - In September, the PE pipe market is expected to shift from the traditional off - season to the peak season, but the recovery of the municipal infrastructure and real estate industries is insufficient, restricting market recovery. After late September, demand is expected to improve [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate due to a combination of supply and demand factors, with supply pressure easing but demand data not performing well [3]. - Urea prices are expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future, and the strength of the rebound depends on export dynamics [4]. - Copper prices are currently oscillating strongly, mainly supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under the influence of tariff expectations [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out, followed by a strategy of shorting on rebounds [10]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. - PP, plastic, PVC, and soybean oil prices are all expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalance and inventory pressure [14][15][17][18]. - Soybean meal prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. - Coking coal prices are generally bearish due to loose supply - demand and weakening demand [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, but actual production growth is less than expected. Canadian wildfires have led to a reduction in production, and US oil production is expected to decline [3]. - Demand: Market risk appetite has rebounded, but refined oil demand and inventory data are not good, and the negative impact of the global trade war on the economy has not been fully reversed [3]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate [3]. Urea - Supply: There are temporary inspections in some factories, and daily production has decreased, but the daily production is still around 200,000 tons [4]. - Demand: Market sentiment is weak, agricultural demand is not strong, and compound fertilizer factories are mainly focused on inventory reduction [4]. - Price trend: The price dropped by nearly 2% today, and the market sentiment is expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future [4]. Copper - Supply: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and smelters face the risk of production reduction due to losses. Other regions' copper inventories have decreased due to steel tariffs [9]. - Demand: Apparent consumption has decreased, downstream开工率has declined, and demand is the main factor restricting price increases [9]. - Price trend: Currently oscillating strongly, supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under tariff expectations [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Production is expected to increase in June, and the fundamental situation is still one of oversupply [10]. - Demand: Downstream procurement is cautious, and the support for prices is limited [10]. - Price trend: Oscillating around 60,000 yuan, with a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out [10]. Asphalt - Supply: The starting rate has rebounded, and the scheduled production in June is expected to increase [12]. - Demand: The starting rate of downstream industries has fluctuated, and the demand for road asphalt is restricted by funds [12]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. PP - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new devices have been put into production, increasing supply [13][14]. - Demand: Downstream recovery is slow, new orders are limited, and inventory pressure is high [13][14]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new production capacity has been put into operation [15]. - Demand: Downstream开工率is at a low level, and new orders are slow to follow up, with high inventory pressure [15]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. PVC - Supply: The starting rate has increased, and social inventory is still high [16][17]. - Demand: Downstream开工率has declined, and export is affected by policies. Demand improvement is limited [16][17]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Soybean Oil - Supply: The inventory of imported soybeans has increased, and the soybean crushing volume is at a historical high, with high inventory [18]. - Demand: Terminal demand is weak, and downstream stocking willingness is low [18]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18]. Soybean Meal - Supply: The supply in the domestic market is sufficient, and the inventory is gradually accumulating [19][20]. - Demand: The weather in the United States is favorable for soybean growth, and the supply outlook is good [19]. - Price trend: Expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. Coking Coal - Supply: The customs clearance volume remains high, and the total inventory is at a high level [21]. - Demand: Steel mills' demand for coking coal has decreased, and terminal demand has weakened [21]. - Price trend: Generally bearish [21].