Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The polyethylene price is expected to rise due to the support from the demand side, but the price rebound may be limited because of the continuous pressure from the supply side [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. New Capacity Continues to Be Released, and Domestic Production Increases Significantly - From Q4 2024 to H1 2025, the concentration of new ethylene cracking device launches was high, increasing the supply pressure of domestic production, and the expansion was mainly in low - pressure and linear polyethylene, intensifying homogeneous competition [1]. - As of now, 343 million tons of new polyethylene devices have been put into production in 2025, and the total planned production capacity for the year is 663 million tons [1][2]. - From January to August, the maintenance loss of polyethylene in China was 323.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.03%. The polyethylene production was 2068.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15%, and the industry's operating rate has been around 75% since Q2 [4]. - There are still multiple device launches planned for the later period, mainly high - pressure and low - pressure, with limited pressure on linear polyethylene launches, and most launches are concentrated at the end of the year. The pressure on the general - purpose material market mainly comes from H1, and the production release in H1 still poses a significant threat to H2 [4]. 2. Demand in the Traditional Peak Season Remains to Be Released, and the Room for Improving the Supply - Demand Contradiction May Be Limited - The operating rate of the plastic downstream industry has further declined year - on - year this year, and insufficient demand support has been a persistent problem. During the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the demand of most downstream product industries has increased, but overall it is still weaker than expected [7]. - In the agricultural film industry, demand has further increased, and the industry is in a full - production peak season. The operating rate is expected to increase by 20 percentage points and reach its peak in early November. However, downstream factories mainly make rigid purchases [9]. - In the PE packaging film sector, supported by domestic and foreign holidays, orders have been released intensively, and the inventory preparation expectation has increased. Some export enterprises have seen an improvement in order - taking [9]. - In September, the PE pipe market is expected to shift from the traditional off - season to the peak season, but the recovery of the municipal infrastructure and real estate industries is insufficient, restricting market recovery. After late September, demand is expected to improve [10].

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The relationship between PE (Polyethylene) and PP (Polypropylene) is strong, with concerns over rising propane prices due to tariffs impacting PP costs, leading to a narrowing price gap that even turned negative at one point [1] - Since May, as trade tensions eased, the price gap between PE and PP has been gradually returning to fundamentals, suggesting a potential resurgence in PE's bullish positioning [1] Group 2: Supply Side - As of July, the traditional maintenance season for polyolefins is coming to an end, with both PP and PE operating rates rebounding to around 85% [2] - There are more maintenance plans for PE than for PP before the National Day holiday, with 12 PE production lines (over 3 million tons capacity) scheduled for maintenance compared to 7 PP lines (230,000 tons capacity) [2] Group 3: Demand Side - The second half of the year is traditionally a peak demand season for polyolefins, with PE's peak demand starting in late July and expected to last until November, primarily driven by agricultural needs [6][3] - In contrast, PP's peak demand is more aligned with consumer spending during the "Golden September and Silver October" period and year-end holidays, making it more susceptible to macroeconomic conditions [6] Group 4: Import and Export Trends - Domestic PP capacity has expanded significantly, leading to reduced imports and a situation where exports exceed imports, resulting in a declining reliance on PP imports [7] - Conversely, PE still faces high import dependency due to a shortage of domestic high-end supply, although PE imports have decreased significantly this year, dropping to below 1 million tons in June, the lowest in seven years [7] Group 5: Summary - Trade tensions have caused the PE and PP price gap to hit a three-year low, but as these tensions diminish, expectations for PE in terms of supply, demand, and import/export dynamics are stronger than for PP, indicating a potential widening of the price gap in the future [8]

Group 1 - Yantai Bank High-tech Zone Branch issued a loan of 3.9 million yuan to Yantai Pufeng Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd., effectively addressing the company's funding challenges for purchasing fertilizers and seedlings, and laying a solid foundation for expanding planting scale [1][3] - Yantai Pufeng Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd., established in 2021, focuses on planting high-quality grapes without pesticide residues, facing high annual production funding requirements and limitations on expansion due to lack of funds [3] - The grape industry is characterized as labor-intensive and technology-intensive, facing challenges such as high initial investment, long return cycles, and concentrated seasonal funding needs [3] Group 2 - Yantai Bank customizes financial services based on regional characteristics and enterprise needs, actively supporting local agricultural development and enhancing production scale [4] - The bank's efforts aim to transform the planting industry from "quantity growth" to "quality improvement" [4]

Price Trends in Jining City - In June, the prices of major commodities in Jining City showed mixed trends, with slight fluctuations in grain and oil prices, a decline in meat and egg prices, a rebound in vegetable prices, and a stable yet declining trend in agricultural production material prices [1][2][3] Grain and Oil Prices - The average retail prices for wheat and corn were 1.18 yuan/kg and 1.17 yuan/kg, with corn prices increasing by 3.54% month-on-month, while prices for japonica rice and premium flour decreased by 1.54% and 5.56% respectively [1] - The average retail prices for peanut oil and soybean oil were 159.47 yuan/barrel and 63.76 yuan/barrel, with soybean oil prices rising by 2.44% [1] Meat and Egg Prices - The average retail prices for pork (five-flavored and lean) were 12.57 yuan/kg and 14.07 yuan/kg, showing declines of 2.33% and 1.75% respectively [1] - The average retail prices for beef and lamb were 30.18 yuan/kg and 35.03 yuan/kg, with beef prices increasing slightly by 0.10% and lamb prices decreasing by 0.34% [1] - Chicken and egg prices averaged 8.05 yuan/kg and 3.20 yuan/kg, with declines of 0.79% and 8.57% respectively [1][2] Vegetable Prices - Vegetable prices in Jining City rebounded in June, with a composite average price of 2.33 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.14% [2] - Among the monitored 17 types of vegetables, 10 saw price increases while 7 experienced declines, with garlic sprouts and celery showing significant increases of 34.53% and 29.88% respectively [2] Agricultural Production Material Prices - The prices of agricultural production materials showed a stable yet declining trend in June [3] - The average retail prices for fertilizers such as urea, ammonium bicarbonate, compound fertilizers, and potassium chloride were 2.00 yuan/kg, 1.24 yuan/kg, 3.13 yuan/kg, and 3.31 yuan/kg, with decreases of 2.10%, 0.80%, 0.60%, and 0.54% respectively [3] - The price of diammonium phosphate increased slightly by 0.22% to 4.18 yuan/kg [3] - Prices for agricultural films and pesticides remained stable, with average prices for greenhouse and ground films at 13.25 yuan/kg and 12.33 yuan/kg respectively [3]