【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025年11月19日 【行情分析】 期货方面： 塑料2601合约减仓震荡上行，最低价6781元/吨，最高价6838元/吨，最终收盘于6833元/ 吨，在60日均线下方，涨幅0.22%。持仓量减少19678手至528666手。 现货方面： PE现货市场多数下跌，涨跌幅在-50至+0元/吨之间，LLDPE报6790-7220元/吨，LDPE报8750- 9280元/吨，HDPE报6950-7990元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 11月19日，宁夏宝丰全密度等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至89%左右，目前开工率处于 中性水平。截至11月14日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降0.36个百分点至44.49%，农膜仍处于旺季，农 膜订单稳定，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续稳定，但包装膜订单继续小幅减少，整体 PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水 平。成本端，美国政府停摆结束，欧美成品油裂解价差持续走强，原油价格跌后反弹，但欧佩克将 2025 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the LLDPE and PP markets, suggesting that both are expected to have a volatile trend today due to factors such as oversupply, macro - economic conditions, and oil price fluctuations [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. After the Sino - US meeting, some restrictions were lifted, and OPEC + announced a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026, causing oil prices to fluctuate. The demand for agricultural films remains strong, but stocking for other films is ending. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6850 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 32, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.5%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 57.9 million tons (+3.9), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to oversupply, oil price fluctuations, and moderately high industrial inventory [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and a phased easing in Sino - US talks. Bearish factors are weak demand year - on - year and significant new production capacity in Q4 [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation shows a decline in manufacturing prosperity. After the Sino - US meeting, relevant measures were adjusted, and OPEC +'s decision affected oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes is recovering. The current PP delivery spot price is 6470 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 10, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 62 million tons (+2), which is bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to oversupply, oil price fluctuations, and moderately high industrial inventory [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors are the same as those for LLDPE, while bearish factors also include weak demand year - on - year and significant new production capacity in Q4 [7]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 6850 (+10), the 01 contract price is 6818 (+30), the basis is 32 (-20), and the import price difference is - 243 (+31). The warehouse receipt is 12067 (0), PE comprehensive factory inventory is 57.9 million tons (+3.9), and social inventory is 50 million tons (-10) [8]. - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 6470 (0), the 01 contract price is 6480 (+20), the basis is - 10 (-20), and the import price difference is - 213 (+19). The warehouse receipt is 14642 (0), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 62 million tons (+2), and social inventory is 32.4 million tons (-0.9) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and apparent consumption have shown various trends. For example, in 2024, capacity was 3584.5, production was 2773.8, net imports were 1360.32, and the import dependence was 32.9%. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and apparent consumption also changed. In 2024, capacity was 4418.5, production was 3425, net imports were 360, and the import dependence was 9.5%. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4906 [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - It is expected that plastics will mainly experience weak fluctuations in the near future [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 13th, new maintenance devices such as Zhongsha Petrochemical's LLDPE were added, causing the plastics operating rate to drop to around 88.5%, which is currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% compared to the previous period. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with orders continuing to increase and reaching a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film is stable, but the orders for packaging film continue to decrease slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemicals are normalizing inventory, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. In terms of cost, OPEC adjusted the global oil supply in the third quarter of 2025 from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of oversupply in the crude oil market has become more widely recognized, leading to a decline in crude oil prices. In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year of LDPE started trial operation, and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a production capacity of 800,000 tons per year was recently put into production. The plastics operating rate has slightly decreased. The agricultural film is in the peak season, with orders gradually accumulating, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The price of agricultural film is stable. After the National Day, the stocking demand decreased periodically, the downstream operating rate began to decline, and the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises was insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market and generally reduce prices to actively sell goods. There is still no actual policy for anti - involution in the plastics industry. Of course, anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect the subsequent market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastics 2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,756 yuan per ton, the highest price was 6,820 yuan per ton, and it finally closed at 6,818 yuan per ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.50%. The position volume decreased by 5,317 lots to 581,602 lots [2] Spot - The PE spot market was mostly stable, with price fluctuations ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan per ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,740 - 7,270 yuan per ton, LDPE at 8,770 - 9,430 yuan per ton, and HDPE at 6,900 - 8,090 yuan per ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 13th, new maintenance devices such as Zhongsha Petrochemical's LLDPE were added, causing the plastics operating rate to drop to around 88.5%, which is currently at a neutral level. In terms of demand, as of the week of November 7th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% compared to the previous period. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with orders continuing to increase and reaching a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film is stable, but the orders for packaging film continue to decrease slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 665,000 tons compared to the previous day, which is 5,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are normalizing inventory, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. For the raw material, crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $63 per barrel, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $730 per ton compared to the previous period, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $740 per ton compared to the previous period [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that plastics will continue to oscillate weakly in the near term. Currently, the plastics industry has not seen the implementation of actual anti - involution policies, and the anti - involution and elimination of old devices, which aim to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity, are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season and demand is expected to increase, the current peak season is under - performing, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On November 4th, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37% on a month - on - month basis. The agricultural film is in the peak season, with orders and raw material inventories increasing to a neutral level in recent years, but packaging film orders have slightly decreased, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. The crude oil price is fluctuating slightly. New production capacities have been put into operation, and the plastics operating rate has increased [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2601 contract increased in positions and oscillated. The lowest price was 6,852 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,912 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,879 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.48%. The position volume increased by 554 lots to 533,139 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most prices in the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,840 - 7,370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,000 - 9,780 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,070 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 4th, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week ending October 31st, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37% on a month - on - month basis. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - **Inventory**: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 735,000 tons, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract oscillated around $65 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $730 per ton on a month - on - month basis, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $740 per ton on a month - on - month basis [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for both LLDPE and PP, the short - term investment view is "oscillating" [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term market for LLDPE and PP lacks obvious driving forces, and it is expected that the prices will mainly oscillate. The market has returned to fundamentals due to the fading of macro - sentiment [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's LLDPE production was 30.86 tons, a 3.23% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 81.76%, a 2.19 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, mainly due to new maintenance at several plants [2] - **Demand**: The average downstream product start - up rate of LLDPE/LDPE increased by 1.64% compared to the previous period. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 898.16 million tons, a 0.84% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's polyethylene import volume was 95.02 million tons, a 22.14% year - on - year and 14.17% month - on - month decrease [2] - **Inventory**: The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 52.95 million tons, an 8.37% month - on - month increase. The social sample warehouse inventory was 54.56 million tons, a 4.03% month - on - month increase and a 10.85% year - on - year decrease. The inventory of imported polyethylene warehouses increased by 3.32% month - on - month and decreased by 21.57% year - on - year [2] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 323, with the futures price at a discount [2] - **Profit**: Coal - based and ethane - based production costs increased by 3 and 39 yuan/ton respectively, while oil - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production costs decreased by 249, 200, and 66 yuan/ton respectively. International oil prices fell this week [2] - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2] - **Macro Policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with the futures price oscillating weakly [2] PP Analysis - **Supply**: The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 78.22%, a 0.47% month - on - month increase; the capacity utilization rate of Sinopec was 81.01%, a 1.32% month - on - month increase [3] - **Demand**: The average start - up rate increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85%. The demand for medical products such as masks and diapers increased with the cooling weather, while the PP pipe industry was affected by rainy weather. The demand in multiple fields such as food and daily necessities was good before the e - commerce festivals [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 67.87 million tons, a 0.40% month - on - month decrease. The port sample inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons, a 1.16% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of trading companies decreased by 2.25 million tons, an 8.60% month - on - month decrease [3] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 29, with the futures price close to parity [3] - **Profit**: This week, the profits of oil - based and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production improved, while the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP production declined. International oil prices fell [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3] - **Macro Policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with the futures price oscillating weakly [3] Main Weekly Data Changes - **Prices**: PP futures price decreased by 2.54% to 6551 yuan/ton; PE futures price decreased by 2.32% to 6874 yuan/ton; PP spot price decreased by 3.24% to 6580 yuan/ton; LLDPE spot price decreased by 2.62% to 7050 yuan/ton [5] - **Production**: PP production increased by 13.61%; PE production decreased by 2.05%; HDPE production decreased by 1.39% [5] - **Start - up Rates**: PP start - up rate decreased by 2.60% to 38.6%; PE start - up rate decreased by 2.61% to 81.76% [5] - **Inventory**: PP factory inventory increased by 1.58% to 42970 tons; PE social inventory increased by 3.02% to 66.47 million tons; HDPE social inventory data was unavailable; PP warehouse receipts increased by 2.02% to 14313 hands; PE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.35% to 12685 hands [5] - **Downstream Start - up Rates**: The agricultural film start - up rate increased by 20.44% to 42.89%; the packaging film start - up rate decreased by 1.32% to 52.19%; the PP pipe start - up rate decreased by 0.89% to 36.6%; the injection - molding start - up rate decreased by 7.57% to 53.48% [5] - **Cost and Profit**: PP weighted profit increased by 5.66% to - 509.7718 yuan/ton; PE weighted profit decreased by 237.96% to 46.287134 yuan/ton [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 29, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, suggesting that due to the approaching long - holiday, cautious operation is recommended. It is expected that both LLDPE and PP will show a volatile trend today [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In August, official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, and Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The overall demand is still weaker than previous years. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7130 (+0), with a neutral overall fundamental situation [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of LLDPE 2601 contract is - 29, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.4%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating, the crude oil price is fluctuating, the demand for agricultural film is in the peak season but still weaker than previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors are weak demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - situation shows improved manufacturing sentiment. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, with increased demand for pipes and plastic weaving. The current PP delivery spot price is 6780 (+30), with a neutral overall fundamental situation [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of PP 2601 contract is - 113, and the premium - discount ratio is - 1.6%, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), which is neutral [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is oscillating, the crude oil price is fluctuating, the downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is increasing, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [6]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors are weak demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7130 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 7159 (-10), the basis is - 29 (+10). The PE comprehensive factory warehouse is 509,000 tons, and the social inventory is 535,000 tons [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6780 (+30), the price of the 01 contract is 6893 (-5), the basis is - 113 (+35). The PP comprehensive factory warehouse is 520,000 tons, and the social inventory is 286,000 tons [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been increasing, with a planned 20.5% growth in 2025. The import dependence has been decreasing, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has also been increasing, with a planned 11.0% growth in 2025. The import dependence has been relatively low and stable, and the consumption growth rate has shown an upward trend in general [16].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 26, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market for LLDPE and PP is expected to be volatile. For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are bearish, with a weak demand compared to previous years, a bearish basis, a neutral inventory, a bearish trend on the disk, and a net short position of the main contract. For PP, the fundamentals are also bearish, with a weak demand, a bearish basis, a neutral inventory, a bearish trend on the disk, and an increasing net short position of the main contract [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the recent price of crude oil has been fluctuating. The agricultural film market is gradually entering the peak season, and the packaging film market is mainly driven by rigid demand. The downstream operating rate has increased, but the overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. The current spot price of the LLDPE delivery product is 7130 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -39, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.5%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The disk of the LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent price of crude oil has been fluctuating, the demand for agricultural film is entering the peak season but is still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that the PE market will be volatile today [4]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic indicators show an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The downstream market is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic woven products is stable. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6750 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -148, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.1%, which is bearish [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), which is neutral [6]. - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short and increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The disk of the PP main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent price of crude oil has been fluctuating, the demand for downstream products is stable, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that the PP market will be volatile today [6]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7130, up 10; the price of the 01 contract is 7169, up 27; the basis is -39, down 17; the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 509,000 tons, down 42,000; and the PE social inventory is 535,000 tons, down 12,000 [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6750, unchanged; the price of the 01 contract is 6898, up 21; the basis is -148, down 21; the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 520,000 tons, down 30,000; and the PP social inventory is 286,000 tons, up 3,000 [9]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally increased, and the import dependence has decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided content 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PE Fundamental Changes - PE data shows various trends over time, including production, price, and inventory changes. For example, PE production increased from 610,000 tons last week to 630,000 tons this week, a rise of 2.97%. HDPE production increased from 260,000 tons to 270,000 tons, a 2.62% increase. PE开工率 increased from 78.04% to 80.36%, a 2.97% increase [5]. - Different types of PE (LLDPE, LDPE, HDPE) have different price and production change rates. LLDPE had a 4.65% increase in production, LDPE had a 16.97% increase, and HDPE had a 25.08% increase [2]. PP Fundamental Changes - PP data also shows trends in price, production, and inventory. PP production increased by 12.59% this week compared to last week. PP开工率 increased from 33.2% to 34.0%, a 2.44% increase [5]. - PP has different production methods (MTO, PDH), and their profit margins and price differentials are presented. For example, MTO -875, PDH -489 [3].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Linear futures opened higher and fluctuated. The market trading atmosphere changed little. Traders quoted prices with narrow fluctuations, and downstream buyers replenished stocks according to orders. The impact of maintenance is weakening, and new production capacity is continuously being released. The supply pressure brought by the new device of Daxie Petrochemical on the PP side, with a second - line device still to be put into operation in September, the production capacity pressure is continuously rising. The downstream is in the transition stage between the off - season and the peak season. The operating loads of plastic weaving and BOPP are slowly increasing. Injection molding has been partially improved due to the release of school supplies orders during the back - to - school season, but the overall recovery trend is not good. Attention should be paid to the substantial improvement of consumption during the "Golden September" peak season. The supply - demand contradiction of PE is not obvious for the time being. The short - term maintenance loss has increased again, and the new production capacity is slowly being put into operation. The supply pressure is acceptable. The loads of downstream pipes and other products remain low. The raw material and finished product inventories are maintained at a relatively low level. The follow - up of agricultural films has improved compared with the previous period, and the operating load has entered the seasonal upward range, which is expected to drive the de - stocking of social inventory. Plastics may run strongly [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The opening price of L2601 was 7275 yuan/ton, closing at 7252 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (- 0.06%), with a trading volume of 220,000 lots and an increase of 12,546 lots in positions to 401,368 lots. PP2601 closed at 6943 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan, a decline of 0.09%, with an increase of 14,100 lots in positions to 572,000 lots [5][6] 2. Industry News - On September 2, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 700,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 1.41%. The inventory in the same period last year was 780,000 tons. The PE market price fluctuated slightly. The price of LLDPE in North China was 7130 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China was 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7380 - 7750 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6610 - 6680 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The inflow of propylene from outside the region decreased, and production enterprises still had the intention to continue to raise prices slightly. Downstream factories had certain rigid - demand support, but the cost pressure continued to increase, and the factories' acceptance of propylene prices decreased. The PP market adjusted slightly. Downstream factory procurement mentality was cautious, and the inquiry was less than the previous day. The morning trading in the market was average. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6770 - 6980 yuan/ton, in East China was 6800 - 6980 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6760 - 7050 yuan/ton [7][8] 3. Data Overview - There are multiple data charts including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [12][15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the "anti - involution" policy - driven gains have subsided, crude oil prices have declined, and the demand for agricultural films is lower than expected, while the industrial inventory is neutral. For PP, the "anti - involution" policy - driven gains have also fallen back, crude oil prices have dropped, and although the demand for downstream products such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved slightly, the industrial inventory is neutral [4][7]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, in contraction for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's July manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5, also in contraction. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The "anti - involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but after the sentiment cooled, it returned to fundamentals. Short - term oil prices fluctuated and declined. On the supply - demand side, the overall demand for agricultural films was lower than expected, and the film production start - up rate was low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7220 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 87, and the premium/discount ratio is - 1.2%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 505,000 tons (-71,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. With the decline in policy - driven gains, falling crude oil prices, and lower - than - expected agricultural film demand, and neutral industrial inventory, PE is expected to show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand and falling crude oil prices [6]. - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro data. The "anti - involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but after the sentiment cooled, it returned to fundamentals. Short - term oil prices fluctuated and declined. On the supply - demand side, downstream demand is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for products such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved slightly. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7030 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 14, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.2%, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 588,000 tons (+1,000), indicating a bearish signal [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. With the decline in policy - driven gains, falling crude oil prices, slightly improved downstream demand, and neutral industrial inventory, PP is expected to show a volatile trend today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [9]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand and falling crude oil prices [9]. - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a planned 20.5% increase in 2025E. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also shown certain trends. For example, the PE import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023 and then increased slightly to 32.9% in 2024 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity has been growing steadily, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have changed accordingly. The PP import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 and then increased to 9.5% in 2024 [17].