塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年3月6日 【冠通期货研究报告】 【行情分析】 3月6日，新增福建联合全密度1线等检修装置，塑料开工率下降至90%左右，目前开工率处于中 性偏高水平。截至3月6日当周，PE下游开工率环比上升10.4个百分点至28.62%，春节假期结束第二周， 下游陆续复产，但还未恢复至节前水平，整体PE下游开工率季节性变动。春节期间石化库存增加48 万吨至94万吨，春节假期后持续去化，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本端，美以袭击伊 朗，伊朗反击以色列及中东美军基地，霍尔木兹海峡通航受阻，原油价格大幅上涨，对塑料提振明 显。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月 已投产。一季度已无新增产能计划投产。近期塑料开工率略有下降。目前下游复产缓慢，采购意愿 偏弱，华北、华东地区农膜价格上涨，而华南地区农膜价格稳定。塑料国内自身供需格局有所改善， 化工反内卷仍有预期，中东局势提振能源化工，伊朗PE进口占中国总进口量约8%，占国内产量约3%， 不过整个中东地区进口占国内产量约20%，预计塑料偏强震荡，关注节后下游复产进度。 【 ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2026 年 3 月 6 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元 ...

中东地缘冲突升级对甲醇和聚烯烃的影响 2026 年 2 月 28 日，以色列率先对伊朗进行了多轮空袭，随着美军的加入， 美以对伊朗的联合空袭已经从"代理人冲突"升级为"直接军事打击"。这一黑 天鹅事件对甲醇和聚烯烃的影响逻辑截然不同:甲醇将是"供应端的直接冲击", 聚烯烃则主要是"成本端的间接传导"。 伊朗是我国最大的甲醇单一进口来源国，2025 年我国从伊朗进口的甲醇占 总进口量的 45%左右,其中华东沿海的主要消费地中,进口甲醇的占比高达 80% 以上。虽然前期由于季节性限气的原因，伊朗大部分甲醇装置仍处于停车状态， 我国自伊朗的进口量出现断崖式下降。但随着伊朗地区气温的逐步回暖，伊朗甲 醇装置也开始进入到复工复产阶段。据最新市场消息称，目前 ZPC 双线甲醇装 置（330 万吨/年）已重启运行，Kimiya（165 万吨/年）和 Sabalan（165 万吨 /年）甲醇装置也计划于２月底至３月中上旬重启生产。而且从德黑兰近期气温 回升偏快且比往年同期明显偏高的角度而言，市场也预计甲醇企业复产的时间节 点较 2025 年要早（2025 年普遍在 3 月重启，且 2 月底时的寒潮还导致了多套 装置二次限气） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran continues to drive up international oil prices, significantly boosting the cost support of polyolefins and the futures prices. For PE, the supply pressure remains due to high - level operation and limited planned maintenance, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season. The cost support is strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory removal rhythm after the Spring Festival. For PP, the cost support is also rising, the supply pressure is acceptable in the short term, the demand is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the inventory removal rhythm after the downstream resumes work [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6777 yuan/ton (- 43), the PP main contract is 6720 yuan/ton (- 26), LL North China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+30), LL East China spot is 6780 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis is - 97 yuan/ton (+73), the LL East China basis is 3 yuan/ton (+43), and the PP East China basis is - 40 yuan/ton (+26) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 88.4% (+1.1%), and the PP operating rate is 75.9% (- 0.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is - 229.6 yuan/ton (- 143.8), the PP oil - based production profit is - 569.6 yuan/ton (- 143.8), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 487.9 yuan/ton (- 36.6) [1] - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is - 24.7 yuan/ton (+79.9), the PP import profit is - 332.5 yuan/ton (- 83.2), and the PP export profit is - 54.3 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 24.7% (- 5.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 20.3% (+0.0%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 24.1% (- 3.8%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 42.8% (- 17.5%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply pressure remains due to many short - term restarting devices, high - level operation, limited planned maintenance in the later first quarter, and increased standard product production. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, waiting for the peak season of PE mulching films to resume work and replenish stocks. The upstream inventory accumulates as expected after the festival, the downstream resumes work slowly, and the spot trading is light. The plastic's basic situation of strong supply and weak demand continues, and the cost support is strong in the short term [3] - **PP**: Geopolitical disturbances push up oil prices and the cost support. The PDH profit is slightly repaired but still in a deep loss. The overall PP operating rate rises limitedly, and the supply pressure is acceptable in the short term. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream operating rates continue to decline. The cost increase boosts the price in the short term [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long and hedge for LLDPE and PP at low prices [5] - **Inter - period**: Cautiously shrink the L05 - 09 spread at high prices [5] - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously shrink the L - PP spread at high prices [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • LLDPE概述： • 利多 • 1、成本支撑 • 2、地缘溢价原油上涨 • 利空 • 1、下游需求偏弱 聚烯烃早报 2026-2-26 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 中东美伊局势升级，原油上涨，地缘政治溢价明显，支撑聚烯烃成本。美最高法院裁定特朗普关 税违法，其立刻宣布对全球加征15%进口关税，制品未来出口可能受影响。国内方面，3月两会可 能的刺激政策、特朗普来访前中美的谈判博弈均有可能增加市场对需求预期。供需端，农膜方面， 多数企业尚未复工，包装膜企业低负荷逐渐复工，管材方面受天气制约复工仍受限。当前LL交割 品现货价6650（+10），基本面整 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 中东美伊局势升级，原油上涨，地缘政治溢价明显，支撑聚烯烃成本。美最高法院裁定特朗普关 税违法，其立刻宣布对全球加征15%进口关税，制品未来出口可能受影响。国内方面，3月两会可 能的刺激政策、特朗普来访前中美的谈判博弈均有可能增加市场对需求预期。供需端，农膜方面， 多数企业尚未复工，包装膜企业低负荷逐渐复工，管材方面受天气制约复工仍受限。当前LL交割 品现货价6600（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-44，升贴水比例-0.7%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存36.7万吨（-0），偏多； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Plastic supply and demand pattern improves limitedly, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. The upstream petrochemical inventory is low, and the basis has been repaired. Due to the long Spring Festival holiday, the risk of unilateral positions is high, so it is recommended to hold no positions for the holiday. Since there is new plastic production capacity put into operation recently, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet, it is advisable to hold a light - position short L - PP spread [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 12, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased. The overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally. Petrochemical de - stocking in February was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in recent years. The cost of crude oil rebounded due to market concerns about military conflicts between the US and Iran. New plastic production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate increased slightly recently. The concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract opened higher, then decreased in position and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 6732 yuan/ton, the highest was 6834 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6734 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.72%. The position decreased by 2602 lots to 501315 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Some prices in the PE spot market declined, with the price change ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6600 - 7020 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8280 - 8960 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6760 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On February 12, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased. The overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally [4]. - **Inventory**: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 440,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year. Petrochemical de - stocking was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above $69 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $695 per ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $675 per ton week - on - week [4].

聚烯烃日报 行业 日期 2026 年 2 月 11 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位： ...

Core Viewpoint - Wanhua Chemical is undertaking a significant capital operation to enhance its carbon two industry assets amid cyclical adjustments in the chemical industry, with a planned capital increase of up to 19.086 billion yuan for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Wanhua Olefins [1][2] Group 1: Capital Increase Details - The capital increase amounts to 19.086 billion yuan, achieved through a combination of asset injection and debt-to-equity conversion, rather than direct cash outlay [1][2] - Wanhua Chemical will inject approximately 14.586 billion yuan worth of integrated ethylene-related assets and 4.5 billion yuan of debt into Wanhua Olefins, raising the subsidiary's registered capital from 3 billion yuan to 4 billion yuan [1][2] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The capital operation aims to consolidate the management of two 1 million-ton ethylene facilities under a single legal entity, enhancing operational efficiency and optimizing the subsidiary's capital structure [2][3] - This strategic move is intended to create a more competitive carbon two industry platform, allowing for better resource allocation and cost reduction [2][3] Group 3: Financial Context - Wanhua Chemical has faced financial pressure due to aggressive capacity expansion and high leverage, with significant capital expenditures leading to increased reliance on external financing [3][4] - Despite achieving a revenue of 144.226 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.45% year-on-year to 9.157 billion yuan, indicating a decline in profitability despite revenue growth [3][4] Group 4: Market Challenges - The company has noted that the petrochemical industry is experiencing price declines due to an oversupply of ethylene and other products, which has compressed profit margins [4] - The capital increase is seen as a strategic response to external market uncertainties, aiming to build a healthier financial and operational platform for Wanhua Olefins [4]

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-29 成本端支撑偏强，市场延续上行 市场要闻与重要数据 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为72.5元/吨（-161.0），PP油制生产利润为-527.5元/吨（-161.0），PDH制PP生产利 润为-621.0元/吨（+44.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为365.7元/吨（-11.8），PP进口利润为-412.8元/吨（-33.1），PP出口利润为-68.1美元/吨（-1.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为36.3%（-0.6%），PE下游包装膜开工率为45.0%（-3.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为42.0%（-0.6%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为64.0%（+0.5%）。 市场分析 PE方面，地缘扰动加剧，成本端原油价格震荡上行，叠加近期北美寒潮影响乙烷供应价格高涨，PE成本端支撑持 续，聚烯烃市场情绪仍高涨；基本面情况看，供应端，短期包括中化泉州、茂名石化等重启装置偏多，PE供应端 存回升预期；需求端，PE下游延续淡季特征，下游整体开工延续下滑，下游工厂采购力度有所减弱，其中农膜需 求淡季，包装膜开工亦同期偏低，节前下游订单跟进情况仍显不足。整体看塑料供需格 ...