英国预算责任办公室(OBR)经济和财政展望：2029-2030财年预算盈余预计为217亿英镑，3月时预测为 99亿英镑。预计预算案增税政策到2029-30财年将增加261亿英镑的税收收入。将中期生产率增长预期从 1.3%下调至1.0%。预计2025年GDP增长率为1.5%，高于3月份的1.0%。美国和全球贸易政策的未来走向 仍然存在很大的不确定性，许多贸易伙伴面临关税上调的威胁。未来五年计划削减的借贷规模中，约四 分之三将通过增税来实现。预计英国政府在2029-2030财年实现当前预算平衡的财政目标。 ...

Group 1 - UK retail sales in August grew by 0.5%, exceeding analyst expectations of 0.4%, indicating resilience in consumer spending despite government tax increases [1] - Strong sales in clothing and baked goods offset declines in computer and telecommunications equipment sales, suggesting a mixed performance across sectors [1] - The Labour government's £26 billion (approximately $35 billion) tax increase and higher minimum wage standards raised market concerns, but strong retail sales provide some relief to the Chancellor [1] Group 2 - Consumer spending accounts for about 60% of total expenditure, making it crucial for the Labour government to avoid a cautious consumer sentiment [1] - The UK government is focused on revitalizing economic growth to prevent significant tax increases in the upcoming budget [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August rose by 3.8% year-on-year, consistent with previous months and aligning with predictions from the Bank of England and private sector economists [1] Group 3 - The Bank of England is maintaining interest rates at 4% amid concerns over rising inflation, with a cautious outlook on future rate cuts [1] - Inflation is expected to reach 4% this month, with particular concern over spiraling food prices due to their importance to consumers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean stock market experienced its largest decline since early April, primarily due to a government proposal to increase taxes on corporations and stock investors, which is expected to lead to significant selling pressure in the market [1] Group 1: Tax Proposal Impact - The South Korean government proposed to lower the capital gains tax threshold for stockholders from 5 billion KRW to 1 billion KRW, which is anticipated to increase the number of taxable investors significantly [1] - The stock transaction tax is set to rise from 0.15% to 0.2%, further impacting investor sentiment [1] - The highest corporate tax rate will increase from 24% to 25%, reversing the previous government's tax reduction policies, with all corporate tax brackets seeing a 1 percentage point increase [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - The benchmark stock index in South Korea fell by over 3%, with SK Hynix and Hanwha Aerospace experiencing the largest declines [1] - Timefolio indicated that the reduction in the capital gains tax threshold could lead to a substantial increase in the number of taxable investors, potentially triggering a sell-off in the stock market [1]

Core Points - President Trump is proposing to increase tax rates for wealthy Americans earning over $2.5 million annually, or couples earning $5 million, to a new rate of 39.6% [1] - This proposal aims to offset other tax cuts in his economic plan and would revert the highest tax rate to levels prior to Trump's 2017 tax cuts [1] - The current highest personal tax rate stands at 37% [1] - Trump communicated this request during a phone call with House Speaker Johnson and reiterated his desire to eliminate the carried interest tax break enjoyed by hedge fund and private equity managers [1]