《国民报》12月30日报道，澳大利亚和新西兰银行（ANZ）经济学家基什蒂·森表示，国际市场黄金价 格上涨预计将为巴新政府带来额外财政收入。并强调，政府应把握商品价格高企时期，将超额收入存入 主权财富基金（SWF），以应对未来经济周期波动。 数据显示，受益于金价上涨和税收合规性提升，2025年矿业公司税收预计达20亿基那，创历史新高，完 全抵消了石油公司税收下降的影响。在最新《年中经济和财政展望报告》中，国库部将矿业和石油税收 总收入上调2亿基那，2025年总额预计达到43亿基那，再创新高。 森对巴新政府的长期财政修复计划表达信心，认为2027年实现预算盈余、2034年偿清公共债务的目标具 有可行性。 森进一步指出，2026年预算中矿业和石油税收预计为41.36亿基那，未来有望增长至48.50亿基那，增幅 达17.3%。建议政府可通过减税或增加支出将资金重新投入经济，但同时也支持政府2027年实现预算盈 余的目标。 ...

澳新 银行的Khoon Goh在一份报告中写道，新加坡在2025财年和2026财年预期的预算盈余将提供充足的 财政空间来维持支持性政策。由于经济活动坚稳，该国政府的税收收入高于预期。Goh说："这导致了 基本预算盈余，使政府的财政状况处于稳固地位。"2026年预算案中可能会有更多现金发放和代金券， 这将维持家庭支出。也可能向受美国关税影响的公司以及寻求海外扩张的国内公司提供支持。澳新银行 预计，新加坡2025财年和2026财年的总体预算盈余将占GDP的0.8%。（智通财经） ...

Core Insights - Strong foreign direct investment is expected to enhance liquidity in the foreign exchange market and address the foreign exchange restrictions that have plagued Papua New Guinea (PNG) for over a decade [1] Economic Growth and Projections - PNG's economy has grown from 62 billion kina a decade ago to 138 billion kina today, marking a 126% increase, with 66% of this growth occurring in the past five years [1] - The possibility of achieving a 200 billion kina economy by 2030 is considered very high [1] Government Policy and Budget Forecasts - The next decade will test PNG's ability to convert resource wealth into economic growth [1] - The 2026 budget indicators include: - The last year of budget deficit is projected to be 2026 - Nominal GDP is expected to grow by 9.2%, reaching 148.4 billion kina - Fiscal revenue is estimated at 29.3 billion kina, while fiscal expenditure is projected at 30.9 billion kina - A deficit of 1.6 billion kina is anticipated, accounting for 1.1% of GDP - Public sector debt is expected to be 66.2 billion kina, representing 45.5% of GDP, down from 48.2% in 2025 - A budget surplus is expected in 2027 [1]

Core Insights - The Eurasian Stabilization and Development Fund has released a mid-term forecast report regarding Kyrgyzstan's budget surplus situation for the coming years [1] - The report indicates that Kyrgyzstan's national budget will maintain a surplus to ensure the repayment of basic debts, particularly through capital injections into state-owned enterprises in the energy, banking, and construction sectors, which are included in the 2025-2027 budget [1] - Analysts predict that by 2028, the proportion of tax revenue to GDP will gradually decline to 15%, leading to a budget deficit of approximately 0.2% of GDP [1] Budget Forecast - The average budget surplus for the years 2025-2027 is projected to be around 1.6% of GDP, supported by a high tax revenue ratio averaging 23% of GDP [1] - The capital injections into key sectors are aimed at maintaining fiscal stability and supporting economic growth [1]

Core Insights - The UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects a budget surplus of £21.7 billion for the fiscal year 2029-2030, an increase from the previous forecast of £9.9 billion in March [1] - The proposed tax policy changes are expected to generate an additional £26.1 billion in tax revenue by the fiscal year 2029-2030 [1] - The medium-term productivity growth forecast has been revised down from 1.3% to 1.0% [1] Economic Projections - GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected at 1.5%, an increase from the earlier estimate of 1.0% made in March [1] - There remains significant uncertainty regarding the future direction of US and global trade policies, with many trading partners facing the threat of tariff increases [1] Fiscal Strategy - Approximately three-quarters of the planned reduction in borrowing over the next five years will be achieved through tax increases [1] - The UK government aims to achieve a balanced current budget by the fiscal year 2029-2030 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The June budget surplus in the U.S. is attributed to spending cuts implemented by the government [1] Group 1 - The surplus indicates a positive fiscal outcome for the month of June [1] - Spending reductions have played a significant role in achieving this surplus [1] - The government continues to focus on fiscal discipline through budgetary measures [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. budget surplus for June amounted to $27.01 billion, a significant improvement compared to a deficit of $71 billion in the same month last year [1] Group 1 - The June budget surplus indicates a positive shift in the U.S. fiscal position compared to the previous year [1] - The reported surplus reflects a recovery in government finances amid ongoing economic challenges [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. federal government reported a budget surplus of $258 billion in April, marking the second-largest surplus on record, following a $308 billion surplus in 2021, and reflecting a 23% year-over-year increase, or approximately $49 billion, compared to a $160.5 billion deficit in the previous month [2] Revenue and Expenditure - April's total tariff revenue reached $16 billion, an increase of approximately $9 billion from the same month last year, significantly surpassing the previous record of $9.6 billion set two years ago [3] - The Treasury's spending in April was $592 billion, slightly higher than March's $528 billion and exceeding last year's $567 billion, with over $100 billion allocated to interest on the national debt, which currently stands at approximately $37 trillion [3][4] - The unexpected surge in revenue and resulting budget surplus has made the cumulative deficit for fiscal year 2025 appear less catastrophic, with a reported deficit of $1.049 trillion for the first seven months of the fiscal year, a 23% increase from the previous year [5] Tax Revenue Dynamics - The increase in revenue is primarily driven by a 6% rise in individual withholding tax payments, totaling $2.145 trillion, which constitutes the largest share of budget revenue [5] - The overall revenue for the fiscal year to date has grown by 5%, while expenditures have increased by 9%, largely due to rising costs associated with Medicare and Medicaid programs [5]

Group 1 - In April, the U.S. budget surplus reached $258.4 billion, an increase from $209.5 billion in the same month last year [1] - Customs duties in April amounted to $16.3 billion, marking a historical high and a significant increase of 130% compared to $7.1 billion in the same month last year [1] - The total customs revenue for the fiscal year 2025 has reached $63.3 billion, reflecting an over 18% increase compared to the same period in fiscal year 2024 [1] Group 2 - The net interest expenditure on the $36.2 trillion national debt in April was $89 billion, making it the second-highest expenditure item after Social Security [2] - Total net interest expenditure for the fiscal year to date has accumulated to $579 billion, also ranking as the second-highest expenditure [2] - Revenue from consumption taxes has increased by $10 billion over the past seven months, primarily due to a new tax on stock buybacks introduced in the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. budget surplus for April reached $258.4 billion, an increase from a surplus of $209.5 billion in the same month last year [1] - Customs revenue in April surged by 130% year-over-year, amounting to $16 billion, marking a historical high [1]