Core Insights - The UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects a budget surplus of £21.7 billion for the fiscal year 2029-2030, an increase from the previous forecast of £9.9 billion in March [1] - The proposed tax policy changes are expected to generate an additional £26.1 billion in tax revenue by the fiscal year 2029-2030 [1] - The medium-term productivity growth forecast has been revised down from 1.3% to 1.0% [1] Economic Projections - GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected at 1.5%, an increase from the earlier estimate of 1.0% made in March [1] - There remains significant uncertainty regarding the future direction of US and global trade policies, with many trading partners facing the threat of tariff increases [1] Fiscal Strategy - Approximately three-quarters of the planned reduction in borrowing over the next five years will be achieved through tax increases [1] - The UK government aims to achieve a balanced current budget by the fiscal year 2029-2030 [1]

Core Insights - The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) projects the Philippine GDP growth rate to stabilize at the lower end of the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) target of 5.5% to 6.5% for 2025 [1] - Inflation is expected to be 1.7% in 2025, significantly below the government's target range of 2% to 4%, rising to 3.3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027 [1] - The Department of Finance acknowledges that economic growth is below initial expectations due to global economic headwinds, but fiscal targets can still be achieved through stronger tax measures and improved tax administration [1] Economic Growth Projections - The Philippine economy is projected to grow within the range of 6% to 7% in 2026, with a return to the target range by 2027 supported by lower policy interest rates and a neutral output gap [1] Inflation Forecast - The inflation rate is forecasted to be 1.7% in 2025, increasing to 3.3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, indicating a gradual rise in inflation after a low initial rate [1] Fiscal Measures - The Philippine government plans to increase revenue through key measures such as digital services VAT, capital market efficiency legislation, and the CREATE MORE initiative, alongside efforts to combat tax evasion [1] - Additional measures under consideration include taxes on electronic gaming, single-use plastics, universal tax amnesty, and an extension of estate tax amnesty [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian government is implementing an emergency plan to respond to the U.S. tariffs while adhering to its fiscal rules, aiming to maintain a zero deficit target for the year [1] Group 1: Emergency Plan Details - The emergency plan will utilize a "special credit" mechanism to provide financial support without violating the 2025 fiscal goals [1] - The plan includes short-term, medium-term, and long-term measures, with some actions potentially starting within 48 hours after approval from President Lula [1] - The plan will support both the agricultural and industrial sectors, aiming for quick implementation in response to the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on certain Brazilian goods [1] Group 2: Stakeholder Engagement - The Brazilian government is calibrating specific data with unions, businesses, and the presidential civil office to determine the necessary funding for affected companies [1] - Some companies may not require additional assistance as they can redirect their products to domestic markets or other export channels [1] Group 3: Broader Economic Initiatives - The Brazilian Ministry of Finance is also working on reshaping the export support mechanisms for small, medium, and large enterprises [1] - New labor protection measures are being studied as part of the broader economic response [1]

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian Finance Minister Haddad stated that if the country achieves its fiscal goals, the central bank will have greater capacity to rationalize interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the relationship between fiscal discipline and monetary policy effectiveness [1] - Achieving fiscal targets is seen as a prerequisite for enabling the central bank to implement more effective interest rate reductions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK market is experiencing a significant downturn due to internal conflicts within the ruling party, leading to a sharp decline in government bonds and the currency, alongside political uncertainty surrounding the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves [1][4][8]. Group 1: Political Developments - The Labour Party's sudden policy shift on welfare reform has created a £5 billion funding gap in Reeves' fiscal plan, raising concerns about her political future [4][7]. - Prime Minister Keir Starmer's ambiguous support for Reeves during parliamentary questioning has intensified fears regarding her stability in the role [4][8]. - Reeves' emotional response in parliament, reportedly shedding tears, has further fueled speculation about her position [5][9]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The failure to implement the planned £5 billion cuts to disability benefits has forced the government to consider further tax increases in the autumn [7]. - The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects modest economic growth of 1% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, which may exhaust the government's fiscal space [7]. - The 10-year UK government bond yield surged to 4.63%, marking the largest single-day increase since April, reflecting market concerns over political uncertainty and fiscal discipline [1][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Financial markets have reacted strongly to the political instability, with the pound dropping by 1% against the dollar, indicating growing investor anxiety about the UK's public finances [1][8]. - Analysts suggest that the market's reaction to bond prices indicates a preference for Reeves, as she is viewed as a guardian of fiscal discipline [8].

Group 1 - Brazilian Finance Minister Haddad will discuss measures to achieve fiscal goals with President Lula next week [1]

Group 1 - The Brazilian Finance Minister Haddad emphasizes the commitment to achieving fiscal goals and states that all necessary measures will be taken to ensure these targets are met [1]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's Finance Minister Haddad stated that measures will be taken to ensure compliance with fiscal targets if any risks are identified, but currently, the planning is progressing smoothly and fiscal goals are expected to be achieved [1] Group 1 - The Brazilian government is focused on maintaining fiscal discipline and achieving set financial objectives [1] - Minister Haddad emphasizes proactive risk management to safeguard fiscal targets [1] - Current progress in fiscal planning is reported to be on track, indicating a positive outlook for Brazil's financial stability [1]