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白酒周期没有“第三条道路”:存量爆改,还是增量破局?丨老邵酒业评论
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-14 22:38
文|老邵酒业评论 过去几十年,白酒行业穿越老周期、建立新周期,始终绕不开两条核心道路。如今白酒行业步入新的调整期,商业规律没有变! 存量"爆改" 基于存量的创新"爆改",核心就是选对一个好的价格或开拓一个更高价格区间,搭载新玩法,以此开拓新消费群体、补充业新一批内外经销商,最终创造 新的消费周期与商业周期。 过去几十年,社会和行业红利丰厚,消费升级空间持续周期漫长,传统企业的新玩法往往成功率极高。 而当下,白酒行业的诸多传统红利已逐渐丧失,但企业过去打下的基础与江山仍在。此时此刻,传统企业的核心打法已悄然转变,关键在于以存量创新带 动增量。 套用当前流行的一个热词——"爆改":爆改老的产业理念、老的营销模式、老的商业模式、老的管理弊病,等等。白酒行业的爆改重构空间是巨大的,也 是有很大弹性。 虽然很多企业学不来胖东来,有很多无法复制的特点,但是被"胖改"的同行还是不一样。 增量破局 增量破局就是基于新品类新趋势的拓展,这是亘古不变的商业规则,由新品类、新趋势引起消费变革,开启新周期 。 如果说第一条路是老企业在既有框架内的涅槃重生,那第二条路更像是新面孔掀起的消费革命。 它绝非偶然,而是水滴石穿、厚积薄发的大 ...
黑马金茂,又杀回来了!
3 6 Ke· 2025-05-23 02:34
Core Viewpoint - China Jinmao is transitioning from a loss-making state to a proactive land acquisition strategy, aiming to leverage new land to improve cash flow and profitability amidst a challenging real estate market [1][5][30]. Group 1: Company Strategy - The new chairman, Tao Tianhai, has initiated comprehensive reforms in organization, investment, product, and operations, summarized as the "three axes" of Jinmao's turnaround: organizational streamlining, aggressive land acquisition, and product optimization [2][5]. - Jinmao's land acquisition strategy has seen it become the top acquirer in the industry, with a reported land acquisition value of 356 billion yuan from January to April 2025, surpassing major competitors [3][4][20]. - The company aims to create a positive feedback loop where increased land acquisition leads to new cash flow and profits, which in turn supports further land purchases [2][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2023, Jinmao reported a significant loss of 6.9 billion yuan, but turned around to achieve a profit of 1.07 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a successful recovery [5][8]. - The company’s sales figures have shown a downward trend over the past four years, dropping from 235.6 billion yuan in 2021 to 98.3 billion yuan in 2024, highlighting the challenges faced [8][9]. - Jinmao's land acquisition intensity has been notably high, with a ratio of 1.4 in early 2025, indicating a strong commitment to expanding its land bank despite previous losses [4][5]. Group 3: Market Context - The real estate market is currently in a downturn, but Jinmao is focusing on core first- and second-tier cities where demand remains relatively strong, providing opportunities for growth [21][22]. - The company is strategically shifting away from lower-tier cities, which have higher inventory and lower sales rates, to focus on more profitable markets [23][24]. - Jinmao's approach to land acquisition is supported by recent policy changes that have lifted price restrictions, allowing the company to leverage its high-end product capabilities [22][30].