"2025年赔钱了。"天津酒商张伟告诉记者，这两年的生意每况日下，去年特别明显，前两年酒水生意还 能持平，略有利润，但整体算算，2025年无论是白酒还是红酒业务都未能盈利。 做了十几年酒水，张伟曾是多个白酒和葡萄酒的代理商和团购商，葡萄酒的市场价格较为稳定，但动销 比较差。前几年其所在的总公司一年能做3000多万销售额，目前下降了近一半。白酒由于签约的品牌这 两年价格频频倒挂且动销不畅，情况更为糟糕一些。 对于白酒行业而言，2025年是众多酒商体感最差的一年，理性消费叠加反腐工作的持续深入，让白酒调 整进一步深入，过去习以为常的经验和操作都在改变，越来越多的白酒企业开始放下过去的价值和社交 货币的增长逻辑，重新审视和消费市场的关系。 但在业内看来，白酒的转型调整才刚刚开始。 更加艰难的生意 不过在业内看来，2026年白酒行业的深度调整仍未结束。1月7日晚，口子窖发布业绩预告，预计2025年 实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为6.6亿元至8.3亿元，较上年同期预计减少50%至60%。主要是报告 期内白酒行业市场分化与渠道变革加剧，叠加需求下行及政策变化影响，核心利润来源高端产品销量大 幅下滑，导致营业收入减少。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in liquor consumption, particularly in the high-end segment, is primarily attributed to economic conditions and policy changes rather than a shift in young people's drinking habits [1][31]. Economic Environment - The liquor industry, especially high-end liquor, is categorized as an "elastic consumption" good, meaning it is not a necessity and is more likely to be cut from budgets during economic downturns [14][18]. - The turning point for the liquor industry occurred in 2020, with stocks of major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye reaching historical peaks in early 2020 but subsequently declining for over five years [3][5]. - By the third quarter of 2025, even industry giants like Wuliangye reported significant profit declines, a scenario previously unimaginable [5]. - Economic pressures have led to reduced consumer spending, with a notable decrease in the business liquor market, which dropped by 32% year-on-year in 2024 [18][20]. Consumer Demographics - The primary consumer base for liquor has historically been middle-aged individuals, with those under 30 accounting for less than 15% of total consumption, while those over 35 represent 72.8% [9][12]. - The notion that young people are the cause of declining sales overlooks the fact that the main consumer group is facing economic challenges, leading to reduced spending [12][31]. Policy Impact - Recent policy changes, such as the revised regulations on government consumption of alcohol, have significantly altered the consumption landscape, particularly in the business sector [20][22]. - The 2025 revision of the "Regulations on Saving and Opposing Waste in Party and Government Agencies" expanded restrictions on all alcoholic beverages, contributing to a short-term decline of 2%-3% in the liquor sector [22][28]. - Local policies, like those from Guizhou province aimed at transforming the liquor industry, indicate a need for adaptation in response to changing market conditions [24][28]. Market Dynamics - The inventory levels of liquor companies have surged, with 20 listed liquor firms reporting stock levels of 168.39 billion yuan, an increase of 19.29 billion yuan year-on-year [26]. - Many distributors are experiencing price inversions, where the selling price is lower than the manufacturer's suggested price, further dampening market enthusiasm [26][28]. - The combination of economic pressures and policy regulations has compressed the consumption space for high-end liquor, which previously relied heavily on government and corporate events [30][31]. Conclusion - The decline in liquor consumption is fundamentally linked to economic conditions and regulatory changes rather than a simple shift in consumer preferences among younger demographics [31][37]. - The industry must adapt to these economic and policy shifts to meet evolving consumer demands, rather than attributing the decline to younger consumers [35][37].

本文由酒业家团队原创 策划丨寒春暮雪编辑丨椰子 编审丨云顶 据广东终端商杨飞（化名）观察，今年以来，广东已经爆发了多轮婚宴潮，"年初从三四月份开始，一直持续到六七月，最近的一波小高潮是从重阳后开 始爆发的，预计年前还会有几波。" 广东婚宴的爆发绝非偶然，根据《中国统计年鉴2025》，2024年我国结婚总人数最多的是广东省，为51.19万对，广东省也是去年全国唯一一个结婚登记 超过50万对的省份，且已连续三年位居全国第一。 国家民政部统计数据显示，2025年前三季度结婚登记数为515.2万对，相比去年同期的474.7万对增加40.5万对。结婚登记数的增长带动婚宴市场向上，酒 业家调研发现，除广东以外，山东、江苏、浙江、福建等多地婚宴场次也在增多，其中江浙一带婚宴场次增幅预计达30%-50%。 2025年，婚宴在"双春年"的加持下正成为酒水消费市场一抹难得的亮色。 酒业家调研发现，近期，广东、福建、江苏、浙江、山东等多地婚宴呈现不同程度的回暖，其中尤以广东、江浙为最，婚宴场次增幅超30%，自重阳过 后，更是接棒中秋国庆，爆发了多轮婚宴小高潮。 但需要注意的是，随着经济压力的持续传导，宴席场次总体缩量明显，且婚宴爆 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant declines in revenue and net profit for the third quarter of 2025, prompting a strategic shift towards low-alcohol, fruit-flavored products targeting younger consumers [2][5][6] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.53% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 400 million yuan, down 28.04% year-on-year [2] - The third quarter alone saw revenue drop to 849 million yuan, a decline of 47.55%, and net profit fell to approximately 79.39 million yuan, down 68.48%, marking the largest drop in recent years [2] Product Structure - Revenue from products priced above 100 yuan was 1.738 billion yuan, down 14.96% year-on-year, while products priced below 100 yuan generated 1.574 billion yuan, down 22.06% [3] - The company is focusing on product innovation, developing low-alcohol and fruit-flavored products for younger consumers, as well as health-oriented products for older demographics [4][6] Market Strategy - The company plans to enhance its marketing efforts through social media and new media platforms, including Douyin and WeChat [3] - Initiatives include a short video creation contest for employees to promote brand awareness and collaborations with other industries to engage high-net-worth clients [3][4] - The company is also expanding its online sales presence through major e-commerce platforms and embracing instant retail channels to integrate online and offline resources [4] Industry Context - The shift towards low-alcohol products is part of a broader trend in the liquor industry, with major competitors also entering the low-alcohol market [5][6] - The low-alcohol and fruit-flavored beverage segment has become increasingly competitive, with established brands already having strong market recognition [6]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry has entered a new normal in 2023, with a weak overall consumption environment, emphasizing high quality-price ratios, functionality, health, and emotional consumption trends [3] - Leading companies are focusing on stable operations and high-quality development, improving shareholder returns and operational quality [3] - The liquor industry continues to experience weak demand, compounded by new regulations, leading to significant adjustments in supply and demand [4] Group 2: Liquor Industry Insights - The liquor sector is expected to see a turning point in the first half of 2026, with a focus on leading companies that show early recovery in fundamentals and long-term growth potential [4][7] - The impact of policies on business demand is gradually weakening, and consumer demand is expected to stabilize, leading to a potential recovery in liquor sales [7] - The strategic focus of liquor companies has shifted from inventory pressure to exploring new growth opportunities, particularly targeting younger consumers [8] Group 3: Consumer Goods Trends - Overall demand for mass-market food is stabilizing at low levels, with sub-sectors showing varied performance; trends of quality-price ratio, health, and emotional value consumption continue [4][10] - The beer industry is experiencing stable sales among leading domestic brands, with a focus on upgrading products and improving efficiency [11] - The snack food sector is seeing significant channel differentiation, with growth in membership stores and snack wholesale channels, while traditional channels face pressure [11] Group 4: Beverage Sector Developments - The soft drink industry is benefiting from travel, innovation, and investments in frozen products, maintaining steady growth despite increased competition [12] - The dairy industry is expected to see a mild recovery in 2026, driven by potential consumer stimulus policies and improved supply-demand balance [12] - The condiment sector is facing stable demand in 2025, with expectations for innovation among leading companies in 2026 [13]

Core Insights - Guizhou Province plans to shift the focus of the liquor industry from "selling liquor" to "selling lifestyle," implementing actions for the integration of the "liquor+" industry and cultural-sports sectors, along with a three-year action plan for liquor exports [1] Industry Overview - The liquor industry is currently in a destocking phase, with a slowdown in performance expected in 2025, which companies must confront. In Q3 2025, companies increased their destocking efforts while also exploring product innovation, channel refinement, and digital transformation to prepare for a new development phase post-destocking [1] - The low-alcohol liquor market in China is projected to grow significantly, from approximately 20 billion RMB (3.6 billion SGD) in 2020 to around 57 billion RMB by 2024. The China Alcoholic Drinks Association's Executive Director Wang Qi predicts that the market size for low-alcohol beverages will exceed 74 billion RMB by 2025 [3]

Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a trend towards lower alcohol content, with many companies launching products below 30 degrees to attract younger consumers. However, this strategy alone is insufficient to engage this demographic, highlighting structural challenges in adapting to new consumption trends [1][4]. Group 1: Challenges of Low-Alcohol Liquor - Technical limitations hinder the flavor balance of low-alcohol liquor, as reducing alcohol content can lead to increased cloudiness in high-quality base liquor. Although advancements have improved flavor retention to 85%, it still falls short of the fullness found in higher alcohol products [1]. - The consumption scenarios for low-alcohol liquor are misaligned with younger consumers' preferences, who favor casual settings like solo drinking and gatherings. Data shows that ready-to-drink low-alcohol products have a turnover rate of 8.2 times, compared to only 1.3 times for traditional liquor requiring mixing [1]. Group 2: Rise of New Beverage Products - New beverage products like Guoli Fang and Meijian are rapidly gaining traction among younger consumers, as they lack traditional constraints and can be enjoyed in various settings. Their core competitive advantage lies in taste and innovative production methods, allowing for direct consumption or DIY mixing [2]. - Price competitiveness is a significant factor, with new beverages priced at around ten yuan, offering a stark contrast to low-alcohol liquor priced at over 68 yuan, thus providing consumers with compelling reasons to choose the former [2]. Group 3: Market Restructuring - The emergence of new beverages reflects a generational shift in consumer culture, with over 60% of young people preferring ready-to-drink options. This shift indicates a desire for simplicity in consumption, aligning with the Z generation's "self-pleasure" lifestyle [3]. - New beverages have established a competitive edge in distribution channels, as 76% are priced below 30 yuan, while traditional low-alcohol products are significantly more expensive, leading to a loss of appeal among younger consumers [3]. - Distributors face challenges as the gross profit margin for low-alcohol liquor is only 43% of that for high-alcohol products, necessitating 2.3 times the sales volume to compensate for profit gaps. Rising channel costs further complicate the situation for many distributors [3]. Group 4: Transformation of Consumption Trends - The transformation in the liquor market is fundamentally driven by deep changes in consumer culture, with old demands fading and new ones emerging that prioritize lifestyle compatibility and experiential consumption [4]. - Young consumers' motivations for drinking have shifted from "pleasing others" to "pleasing themselves," leading to different product designs and marketing strategies compared to traditional liquor [4]. Group 5: Long-term Consumer Perception - Negative perceptions of certain consumer products can persist even with increased wealth or forced consumption, explaining why merely lowering alcohol content does not change young consumers' overall views on traditional liquor [5]. - New beverages successfully meet unmet consumer demands with their diverse flavors and flexible consumption scenarios, driving a transformation in the liquor market that reflects a more segmented and personalized demand landscape [5].

Core Viewpoint - Lin Yuan, chairman of Lin Yuan Investment, has recently faced scrutiny due to underperformance of his funds compared to the CSI 300 index and expressed concerns about his investments in technology stocks, stating they caused him sleepless nights [1][2][19]. Group 1: Performance and Investment Strategy - All 18 funds managed by Lin Yuan that disclosed performance have underperformed the CSI 300 index this year, with the best-performing fund yielding 15.36%, below the index's 18.77% increase [4][6]. - Lin Yuan maintains a long-term investment philosophy, particularly in the liquor industry, asserting that holding investments for 12 years can lead to breakeven through dividends, despite current market challenges [11][17]. - The company has faced questions regarding the risk of fund liquidation, with one fund nearing the liquidation threshold, although Lin Yuan denies any imminent risk [5][8]. Group 2: Views on the Liquor Industry - Lin Yuan believes the liquor industry will not disappear, as it fulfills a "happy demand" and is essential in social contexts, despite recent market downturns [12][14]. - He emphasizes that the liquor market is undergoing structural changes, with leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye still showing growth, while smaller brands face declines [14][15]. - Lin Yuan's investment strategy remains focused on leading brands in the liquor sector, indicating no plans to adjust his investment structure despite market fluctuations [14][16]. Group 3: Technology Investments - Lin Yuan's foray into technology stocks has been described as a passive investment, leading to significant anxiety due to the unpredictability of these assets [19][20]. - He acknowledges the importance of technology for future growth but insists that investments must be based on clear financial calculations, which he finds challenging in the tech sector [19][20]. - The company adheres to a cautious investment approach, preferring to avoid sectors where the financial outcomes are uncertain [20].

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Lin Yuan Investment, Lin Yuan, has faced scrutiny due to underperformance of his funds compared to the CSI 300 index and expressed concerns about his investments in technology stocks, while maintaining a bullish outlook on the liquor industry, particularly regarding long-term returns from white wine investments [1][2][4][21]. Investment Performance - Lin Yuan's funds have underperformed the CSI 300 index, with all 18 disclosed products showing lower returns this year. The best-performing fund, Lin Yuan Investment No. 218, achieved a return of 15.36%, which is still below the CSI 300's 18.77% [4][6]. - Some funds, such as Lin Yuan Investment No. 21, have reported losses exceeding 10% in the past year, raising concerns about potential liquidation risks [4][9]. Investment Philosophy - Lin Yuan emphasizes a cautious investment approach, focusing on understanding the value of investment targets and calculating the payback period before making investments. He believes that holding liquor stocks for 12 years can yield returns that cover initial investments through dividends [12][18]. - The liquor industry is viewed as a sector that will not disappear, as it fulfills a "happy demand" that is expected to persist despite market fluctuations [14][19]. Market Outlook - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a downturn, with major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye facing stock price volatility. However, Lin Yuan believes that the industry's structure is stable and that the market will eventually recover [13][15]. - Lin Yuan does not plan to adjust his investment strategy in liquor stocks despite the current market challenges, as he continues to focus on leading brands [14][16]. Technology Investment - Lin Yuan has expressed discomfort with his passive investments in technology stocks, stating that the unpredictability of these investments has caused him significant stress. He maintains that he will not actively pursue technology investments unless he can clearly assess their financial viability [21][22]. - While acknowledging the importance of technology for future growth, Lin Yuan remains cautious due to the inherent uncertainties in the sector compared to more traditional investments like liquor [21][22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around Lin Yuan's recent challenges in the investment landscape, particularly regarding his investments in technology stocks and the performance of his funds compared to the CSI 300 index [2][4][6] - Lin Yuan expressed that he is currently facing difficulties with technology stocks, which have caused him sleepless nights, indicating a level of discomfort with the volatility and unpredictability of this sector [21][22] - Despite the underperformance of his funds, Lin Yuan remains confident in the long-term value of his investments in traditional sectors like liquor and pharmaceuticals, asserting that holding liquor stocks for 12 years could yield returns [13][19] Group 2 - Lin Yuan's investment philosophy emphasizes a cautious approach, focusing on understanding the value of investment targets and calculating the payback period before making investments [13][24] - The liquor industry, particularly, is viewed as a sector that can provide joy and satisfaction, with Lin Yuan believing that it will not disappear despite current market challenges [16][20] - The article highlights the performance of Lin Yuan's funds, noting that all 18 disclosed products have underperformed the CSI 300 index this year, with some experiencing losses exceeding 10% [6][8][10] Group 3 - Lin Yuan's strategy involves maintaining a focus on leading companies within the liquor industry, despite the recent downturn, as he believes the market structure is already established [16][18] - The article discusses the ongoing transformation within the liquor market, with companies attempting to attract younger consumers through new product offerings, although Lin Yuan remains skeptical about their success [20][21] - Lin Yuan's comments reflect a broader sentiment that while technology is a future direction, the uncertainty surrounding it makes it less appealing for proactive investment compared to more stable sectors like liquor [21][24]