但现实很骨感，低度酒从来没有真正带领行业走出过低谷，拯救行业的往往是高端化。 如果低度酒真能救行业，那茅台最大的对手或许是江小白。 低度酒救不了行业，要从白酒这门生意的本质说起。 白酒是披着C端外衣的B端/G端生意。 俗话说"烟铺路、酒搭桥"，高端白酒绝大部分消费来自商务场景：茅台商务接待占比 50%，礼品占比 30%，宴会占10%，剩余才是自饮等需求。 历史是个轮回，尤其对白酒而言。 从1989年亚洲金融危机到2012年八项规定再到如今的需求下行+最严禁酒令，每逢白酒遇到危机，行业 总会出现低度化风潮。 逻辑看似很完美：低度酒可以在不伤害品牌的情况下降价，吸引更多消费者。 而商务场景又由经济周期和产业结构决定，白酒的供给端创新显然无法撬动商务场景。 低度酒救市逻辑不通，又有历史的前车之鉴。由此，部分投资人质疑酒企集体押注低度酒，并非战略主 动调整，而是来自股东压力——面对持续"不乐观"的业绩和低迷股价，管理层"必须做点什么"。 调整是否来自股东压力暂且不论。 但行业想要走出下行趋势更务实的做法是，卸下业绩包袱，放弃压货换增长的打法，牺牲短期业绩去创 造更健康的行业环境。 / 01 /白酒降度是悖论 曾被视为 ...

文丨双木 出品丨消费最前线 年轻人不喝白酒是因为没到年龄？虽然谈不上00后整顿"酒场"，但当"不拘一格"的年轻人对"酒桌文化"和高度白酒的辛辣口感表现出越来越明显的疏离感 ， 转而拥抱"小甜水"时，白酒已经"慌了"。 越来越多的酒企也意识到与其固守阵地，期待年轻人"长大"以后能够被动接受传统白酒，不如主动俯身开发更符合他们需求的产品。所以"低度白酒"寄托着 全行业的"牵挂"，作为一个看似完美的解决方案应运而生。 "茅五洋泸"纷纷投入重金进行技术研发和产品布局，推出自己的低度系列产品。它们都试图保留白酒的"根"，通过降低酒精度、改良口感的方式试图赢得年 轻人的青睐，年轻人能够"如愿以偿"地快速"成熟"起来吗？ 低度酒成为"微醺"经济的最大获益者 "说实话，我毕业之前从来不喝酒，一闻到那股味儿就头疼。"从知名音乐学院毕业后，张静回到家乡创业，开了一家青少年钢琴培训机构，一边说一边又将 手边的江小白倒入混杂着饮料的杯子中。 "创业这几年，一睁眼就面临着房租水电、钢琴折旧、教师工资的重重压力，每到夜深人静的时候就很想哭。"直到有一次刷小红书，张静看到有人推荐一款 包装很像香水瓶的蜜桃味低度白酒，只有12度，说是适合女 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the liquor industry, highlighting the cross-industry expansion of traditional liquor brands into the craft beer market, the growth of the bottled liquor segment, and the emergence of new retail channels for liquor sales [2][3][5][8]. Industry Environment - Major liquor brands from Sichuan are entering the craft beer market, leveraging their existing brand and distribution advantages. This move is seen as a strategy to attract younger consumers and expand consumption scenarios [3][4]. - The bottled liquor market has surpassed 150 billion yuan, with expectations to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2025. Competition is intensifying as brands launch new products priced under 60 yuan [5]. - Black Ge Consulting identified nine key insights into the liquor industry, including the rise of local brands and the trend towards lower alcohol content products, emphasizing the need for brands to adapt to changing consumer preferences [5]. - High-end liquor brands are encouraged to adopt strategies from luxury brands like Hermes and Ferrari, focusing on scarcity and emotional resonance rather than just price competition [6][7]. New Retail Channels - New retail formats such as Sam's Club and Hema are reshaping liquor sales, offering competitive pricing and direct sourcing, which is attracting consumers and providing new growth channels for liquor companies [8]. - The recent adjustments to the "ban on alcohol" policy have led to a gradual recovery in dining consumption, particularly in regions like Henan, although high-end dining remains sluggish [9]. - Despite a seasonal slowdown, liquor companies are actively transforming their strategies to focus on consumer engagement and experience, moving from a channel-driven approach to a user-driven model [10]. Craft Beer Market - The craft beer segment is rapidly growing, with over 13,584 related enterprises in China as of July 2023, indicating a vibrant competitive landscape [11]. - Traditional liquor brands are launching lower-alcohol products to appeal to younger consumers, although challenges remain in maintaining flavor and quality [12]. Digital Transformation - The liquor industry is leveraging digital assets for growth, with companies reporting significant increases in sales and inventory turnover through innovative digital strategies [13]. Brand Dynamics - The Guojian brand is focusing on national expansion, emphasizing quality and cultural elements to enhance its market presence [14]. - The Swan Lake winery has successfully marketed its zodiac wines, achieving significant sales figures despite industry challenges [15]. - Changyu's innovative marketing strategies in sports events have successfully engaged consumers and enhanced brand visibility [16]. - The Fenjiu brand is exploring new consumer experiences through immersive cultural events, aiming to connect with younger audiences [17]. Market Challenges - Budweiser APAC reported a 24.4% drop in net profit, primarily due to a sluggish Chinese market and increased competition in both the low and high-end segments [20]. - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with companies needing to adapt to changing consumer demands and market dynamics to remain competitive [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is shifting towards "low-alcohol" products in response to changing consumer preferences and economic conditions, with major brands like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shui Jing Fang announcing new low-alcohol offerings. However, it remains uncertain whether this shift can effectively address the challenges of reduced consumption scenarios and the younger generation's aversion to traditional flavors [1][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is facing a significant reduction in consumption scenarios due to changes in the economic environment, particularly affecting high-end dining establishments, which are crucial for liquor sales. Data shows that the number of high-end restaurants in Shanghai with an average spending of over 500 yuan per person decreased by more than 50% from April 2024 to July 2024 [1][3]. - The decline in high-end dining is directly impacting the sales of premium liquor, as the overall dining consumption is becoming more rational and cautious due to macroeconomic influences [3]. Group 2: Social and Cultural Shifts - The traditional social functions of liquor, particularly in business and interpersonal interactions, are weakening. The younger generation, especially Gen Z, is increasingly rejecting the traditional drinking culture associated with respect and hierarchy, viewing it as outdated and even problematic [4][9]. - The number of weddings, a significant occasion for liquor consumption, has also seen a notable decline, with marriage registrations dropping by approximately 20.5% from 2023 to 2024, leading to a substantial loss of sales opportunities for liquor in wedding contexts [5][6][8]. Group 3: Consumer Preferences - The younger generation's lack of identification with traditional liquor culture and their aversion to its strong flavors are contributing to a disconnect in consumption. This is compounded by the availability of diverse beverage options, including low-alcohol and international spirits, which appeal more to their tastes [9][10].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a "low-alcohol revolution," moving away from the traditional high-alcohol image to cater to younger consumers [1][2] - Major Chinese liquor companies are set to launch new products with alcohol content below 29 degrees, marking a significant shift in the market [1] - The low-alcohol liquor market in China is rapidly expanding, projected to grow from approximately 3.7 trillion KRW in 2020 to about 10.89 trillion KRW by 2024, and expected to reach 14 trillion KRW by 2025 [1] Market Dynamics - Young consumers, aged 20 to 30, represent 34% of current liquor consumers in China, with a potential market size of 76 trillion KRW among 490 million young liquor consumers [1] - A survey indicates that young people prefer low-alcohol products over high-alcohol liquor, prompting companies to adjust their strategies accordingly [2] - Industry experts suggest that this trend is not merely a short-term fad but could reshape the entire industry structure, with low-alcohol products potentially becoming the core market for the future [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the transformation of consumer demand from "pleasing others" to "self-pleasing," indicating a structural change in consumption patterns that favors new consumption trends over traditional ones [4][9] - The report identifies three main lines of investment focus: new demand, new products, and new channels, suggesting that companies that can quickly adapt to these changes will outperform in the market [4][6] - The report highlights the government's ongoing efforts to stimulate consumption through various policies, which are expected to enhance consumer confidence and income, leading to a gradual recovery in the consumption market [7][8] Group 2 - New demand is characterized by a focus on cost-effectiveness, emotional value, and health consciousness among consumers, driven by generational differences in spending intentions [4][14][23] - The report notes that health-oriented products are gaining traction, with companies innovating in healthy snacks and beverages to meet rising consumer expectations for health benefits [28][36] - The emergence of new sales channels, such as bulk snack stores and membership-based supermarkets, is reshaping the retail landscape, allowing companies to better meet consumer demands for quality and convenience [57][63] Group 3 - The report discusses the rapid growth of the bulk snack store sector, which has become the leading channel for snack sales in China, reflecting a shift in consumer shopping habits [57][59] - Membership-based supermarkets are also highlighted as a growing trend, providing high-quality products at competitive prices, which appeals to consumers seeking value [63][66] - Traditional supermarkets are undergoing significant transformations to adapt to the competitive landscape, with successful case studies demonstrating substantial sales increases following strategic adjustments [69][70]