Investment Highlights - China Jinmao (00817) is rated as outperforming the industry with a target price of HKD 1.86, reflecting a 10% discount to the 2025 NAV [1] - The company shows significant positive changes in management and strategy, with manageable historical burdens and potential for incremental flexibility [1] Management and Strategy - The new management has defined a strategic direction of "one core and three focuses," centering on development business and enhancing product strength through four major product lines [1] - The company aims to accelerate project openings and cash collection while planning to resolve 80% of its existing issues by 2025-2027 [1] Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a 20% year-on-year increase in contract sales, attributed to improved land acquisition intensity, focus on core cities, and enhanced opening efficiency [1] - The company has approximately CNY 320 billion in unsold value as of the first half of 2025, with an expected average gross margin of around 18% [1] Market Position and Valuation - China Jinmao is considered a key target in the next round of real estate sector revaluation, with positive expectations for the sector's performance over the next 6-12 months [2] - The estimated NAV at the end of 2025 is CNY 25.6 billion, with potential for significant growth if stable land acquisition continues beyond 2026 [2] Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025 and 2026 is CNY 0.10 and CNY 0.11 respectively, with a CAGR of 6.5% from 2024 to 2026 [2] - The company is currently trading at a 30% discount to the 2025 NAV and 0.45 times P/B [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Jinmao is transitioning from survival to thriving, having achieved its initial goal of survival and now focusing on improving its operational performance and market presence [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Jinmao achieved revenue of 25.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.09 billion yuan, up 8% [5]. - The overall gross profit margin was 16%, with a gross profit of 4.06 billion yuan, reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase [5]. - The company reported a signed sales amount of 53.4 billion yuan, marking a 20% increase and ranking first in growth among the top 10 real estate companies [5]. Strategic Planning - Jinmao's future strategy is structured in three phases: "survive, thrive, and shine," with the company now entering the "thrive" phase [3]. - The management is addressing challenges such as the ongoing downturn in the new housing market and the restoration of industry profit margins [3]. Market Positioning - Jinmao's average signed residential price reached 26,000 yuan per square meter, showing significant increases of 18.2% and 24% compared to 2024 and 2023, respectively [5]. - The company has successfully launched several high-demand projects, achieving an average sales rate of 81% on the first day of opening [5][7]. Project Development - Jinmao plans to accelerate the clearance of existing inventory, particularly focusing on unsold units and completed projects [9][10]. - The company has acquired 16 plots of land in key cities, with a focus on high-quality locations, which are expected to enhance future profit margins [13][14]. Operational Efficiency - Jinmao has improved its operational and cost management capabilities, with an average opening cycle of 4.8 months for new projects and a cash flow recovery period of 8.9 months [16]. - The company has reduced its management units from 43 to 20, leading to a 15.9% decrease in management expenses year-on-year [16]. Debt Management - Jinmao has maintained a strategy of reducing short-term debt while increasing long-term financing, achieving an average financing cost of 2.7%, a decrease of 69 basis points compared to the end of 2024 [16][17]. - The company is committed to not significantly increasing its debt levels for new investments, focusing instead on cash flow management and asset optimization [17].

Core Viewpoint - China Jinmao is transitioning from a loss-making state to a proactive land acquisition strategy, aiming to leverage new land to improve cash flow and profitability amidst a challenging real estate market [1][5][30]. Group 1: Company Strategy - The new chairman, Tao Tianhai, has initiated comprehensive reforms in organization, investment, product, and operations, summarized as the "three axes" of Jinmao's turnaround: organizational streamlining, aggressive land acquisition, and product optimization [2][5]. - Jinmao's land acquisition strategy has seen it become the top acquirer in the industry, with a reported land acquisition value of 356 billion yuan from January to April 2025, surpassing major competitors [3][4][20]. - The company aims to create a positive feedback loop where increased land acquisition leads to new cash flow and profits, which in turn supports further land purchases [2][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2023, Jinmao reported a significant loss of 6.9 billion yuan, but turned around to achieve a profit of 1.07 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a successful recovery [5][8]. - The company’s sales figures have shown a downward trend over the past four years, dropping from 235.6 billion yuan in 2021 to 98.3 billion yuan in 2024, highlighting the challenges faced [8][9]. - Jinmao's land acquisition intensity has been notably high, with a ratio of 1.4 in early 2025, indicating a strong commitment to expanding its land bank despite previous losses [4][5]. Group 3: Market Context - The real estate market is currently in a downturn, but Jinmao is focusing on core first- and second-tier cities where demand remains relatively strong, providing opportunities for growth [21][22]. - The company is strategically shifting away from lower-tier cities, which have higher inventory and lower sales rates, to focus on more profitable markets [23][24]. - Jinmao's approach to land acquisition is supported by recent policy changes that have lifted price restrictions, allowing the company to leverage its high-end product capabilities [22][30].