Core Viewpoint - China Jinmao's 2025 performance meets market expectations with a slight revenue increase and stable profit margins [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2025 increased by 0.5% year-on-year to 59.4 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 15.5%, down 0.9 percentage points [1] - Core net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 2% to 1.36 billion yuan, aligning with market forecasts [1] - The company declared a dividend of 0.03 HKD per share earlier in the year, maintaining an annual payout ratio of 28%, resulting in a current dividend yield of 2.3% [1] Sales Performance - Total sales for 2025 reached 113.5 billion yuan, exceeding the initial target of 110 billion yuan, representing a 16% year-on-year increase [1] - The company improved its ranking to 8th nationally, while the overall industry saw a decline of 20% [1] - The average selling price increased by 24% year-on-year to 27,000 yuan per square meter due to structural factors [1] Land Acquisition and Inventory Management - In 2025, the company acquired 21 plots of land in core cities, with a total land cost of 57.7 billion yuan, a 73% increase year-on-year [1] - The company completed 35% of its "Fighting Plan" for handling 160 billion yuan of old inventory, with asset disposal values of 18 billion, 33 billion, and 5.8 billion yuan for land, projects, and bulk disposals respectively [1] Financing Costs - The company issued 9.3 billion yuan in domestic public bonds at a historic low interest rate of 2.3% and secured additional loans at an average cost of 2.34%, a decrease of 64 basis points year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - For 2026, the company anticipates a stable increase in sales, projecting a saleable value of 220 billion yuan with a 55% sell-through rate [2] - The company aims for a 30 billion yuan equity investment target while continuing its inventory disposal plan, expecting to reach 60% progress in 2026 [2] - The company identifies establishing a "special and beautiful" industry benchmark as a key task for the upcoming five-year plan [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2026-2027, with a target price of 2.5 HKD, corresponding to 0.8 times the 2026 P/B ratio and an 86% upside potential [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Jinmao (00817) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant sales growth and is actively acquiring land, indicating that its performance has reached a bottom [1] - In 2025, the company achieved a sales amount of 113.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, making it the only company among the top 10 to show positive growth [6] - The company’s financing costs have continued to decline, with an average new financing cost of 2.75% in 2025, down 64 basis points from the end of 2024 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2028 are as follows: - 2024: 59,053 million RMB - 2025: 59,371 million RMB - 2026E: 54,525 million RMB - 2027E: 51,099 million RMB - 2028E: 49,190 million RMB - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted to be: - 2024: 701 million RMB - 2025: 592 million RMB - 2026E: 737 million RMB - 2027E: 822 million RMB - 2028E: 998 million RMB - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 1.99% in 2024 to 2.87% in 2028 [5][7] Sales and Land Acquisition - In 2025, the company’s sales area was 4.79 million square meters, a decrease of 17.6% year-on-year, while the average sales price increased by 40.1% to 23,700 RMB per square meter [6] - The land acquisition amount in 2025 was 57.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 73%, with a land acquisition/sales amount ratio of 51% [6] Market Position - The company ranks 8th in the industry, improving its position by 4 places year-on-year, and has a significant unsold inventory valued at approximately 278.6 billion RMB, with 89% located in first and second-tier cities [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is transitioning from an incremental expansion phase to a stock-driven phase, reflecting a shift in focus towards improving the quality of economic growth as the GDP growth target is lowered to 4.5%-5% [3][4]. Economic Challenges and Structural Contradictions - The Chinese economy faces a complex situation characterized by cyclical, structural, and institutional challenges, including a downturn in the real estate sector, imbalances in investment and consumption, and rising macro leverage rates exceeding 300% [5][6]. - The aging population is exacerbating demand for real estate and overall consumption, leading to increased fiscal burdens [5][6]. Investment and Consumption Logic - There is a need to correct the performance evaluation bias that overly emphasizes investment over consumption, as local governments tend to rely heavily on investment for economic growth [7][8]. - Investment's contribution to GDP is over 40%, significantly higher than the global average of around 20%, indicating an unhealthy dependency on investment [7][8]. Strategies to Activate Stock Assets - Four key strategies are proposed to address current macroeconomic pain points: 1. Issue special central government bonds to replace high-interest local debts, reducing interest burdens on local governments [9]. 2. Utilize market-oriented methods to activate state-owned assets, allowing for more efficient management and operation [9]. 3. Broaden investment channels and unleash high-end consumption potential, addressing the contradiction of low consumption growth alongside high household savings of 170 trillion yuan [10]. 4. Reform the fiscal system and national income distribution, optimizing the structure of central-to-local transfer payments to better address social security gaps and support low-income populations [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of managing existing assets ("stock management") alongside optimizing new investments ("incremental improvement") to enhance resource allocation efficiency and drive high-quality economic development [1][2][8]. Group 1: Importance of Stock Management - Experts highlight the need to focus on stock management due to the vast scale of existing assets in China, which has reached levels comparable to or even surpassing those of the United States in certain years [2]. - Key areas for revitalizing stock assets include existing infrastructure, inefficient land use, idle properties, and unsold real estate, with a significant portion of these assets owned by government or state-owned enterprises [2][3]. Group 2: Challenges and Risks in Revitalization - The revitalization of stock assets faces challenges due to concerns from various stakeholders, including government departments and private enterprises, which can hinder progress [4]. - Local government financing methods, such as leveraging assets for loans, raise concerns about the ability of local investment companies to effectively manage and revitalize these assets, potentially leading to financial risks [6]. - Experts warn against rigid pricing mechanisms for public services that could impede the effective revitalization of infrastructure assets [7]. Group 3: Synergy Between Incremental Improvement and Stock Management - Coordinating stock management with incremental improvement is crucial for optimizing resource allocation and fostering economic growth [8][9]. - Strategies to address local government debt burdens and enhance fiscal sustainability include issuing special bonds to replace local debts and optimizing the management of state-owned assets [9].

Group 1: Government Work Report Overview - The 2026 government work report marks a transition from a "problem-oriented" approach during the "14th Five-Year Plan" to a "vision-driven" strategy for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The report establishes a growth target range of 4.5%-5% for the economy, emphasizing high-quality development and domestic circulation [1] - It identifies four strategic anchors: high-quality development, strengthening domestic circulation, promoting common prosperity, and balancing development with security [1] Group 2: Core Strategic Tasks - Key tasks for 2026 include building a strong domestic market, modernizing the industrial system, achieving high-level technological self-reliance, and implementing fiscal and financial reforms [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of "new quality productivity" and the establishment of a unified national market as core concepts for strategic advancement [1] - It outlines 20 core development indicators and 109 major projects for the "15th Five-Year Plan," providing a clear framework for future growth [1] Group 3: Policy Implementation and Risk Management - The report proposes a comprehensive policy implementation framework, focusing on central-local coordination and cross-departmental collaboration to address potential bottlenecks [1] - It highlights the need for a full-cycle evaluation mechanism to assess policy effectiveness across five dimensions: economic development, innovation, and public welfare [1] - Key risks identified include unexpected changes in international situations, policy implementation challenges, and uncertainties in capital markets [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The listing prices of second - hand houses in various cities have mostly declined, with the price repair trend failing to continue. The second - hand housing market has rebounded after a continuous three - week decline before the Spring Festival, while the new housing market has continued to contract slightly [2][4]. - The real estate policy focus has shifted from "ensuring the delivery of houses" to "activating the stock and optimizing the supply" [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Housing Price Observation - The listing prices of second - hand houses in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities have all declined to varying degrees, with the second - tier cities having the largest decline. The year - on - year decline in second - tier cities is the most significant, and the decline in all three tiers of cities has widened [2]. - In first - tier cities, all cities' listing prices have turned down, with Beijing and Shenzhen experiencing particularly prominent declines. The year - on - year decline in all first - tier cities has further widened [2]. - In second - tier cities, most cities' listing prices have declined. Only Fuzhou has seen an increase, and the number of rising cities has decreased compared to last week. The year - on - year decline in some cities is relatively deep [3]. 3.2 Weekly Market Performance - The second - hand housing market has rebounded after three consecutive weeks of decline before the Spring Festival. The transaction area of second - hand houses in 15 cities has increased by 4% week - on - week, but decreased by 23% year - on - year. Compared with the same period in 2024, the transaction volume has increased significantly by 21% [4]. - The transaction scale of the new housing market has continued to shrink slightly. The transaction area of new houses in 38 cities has decreased by 2% week - on - week, and has declined compared to the same periods in 2025 and 2024 [4]. 3.3 Performance in First - Tier Cities - The transaction of second - hand houses in first - tier cities has increased significantly week - on - week. The total transaction area of second - hand houses in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen has increased by 12% week - on - week, and has increased by 24% compared with the same period in 2024 [5]. - The transaction of new houses in first - tier cities has declined significantly week - on - week, with internal differentiation. The overall transaction has decreased by 44% week - on - week, and has decreased by 29% compared with the same period in 2024 [5]. 3.4 Performance in Second - and Third - Tier Cities - In second - tier cities, the new housing market has increased significantly week - on - week, while the second - hand housing market has increased slightly. The new housing transaction has increased by 8% week - on - week, and the second - hand housing transaction has increased by 1% week - on - week [7]. - In third - tier cities, the second - hand housing market has shown stronger performance than the new housing market. The second - hand housing transaction has decreased by 7% week - on - week, and the new housing transaction has increased by 41% week - on - week [7]. 3.5 Policy Tracking - The government work report has set the tone for activating the stock and optimizing the supply. The real estate policy focus has shifted from "ensuring the delivery of houses" to "activating the stock, optimizing the supply", including exploring multiple channels to activate the stock of commercial housing and optimizing the supply of affordable housing [8].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of a "more proactive" fiscal policy and "moderately loose" monetary policy to stabilize market expectations regarding macroeconomic policies [4] - The meeting highlighted the need to strengthen the coordination between reform measures and macro policies, indicating that 2026 will be a year of reform as part of the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][5] - The report outlines a policy framework focusing on "expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, improving increment, and revitalizing stock," which addresses the issues of supply-demand imbalance and the challenges of transitioning from old to new growth drivers [4][5] Group 2 - The report identifies "expanding domestic demand" as primarily reliant on boosting consumption and investment, which corresponds to consumer and cyclical assets [5] - It suggests that the government will implement measures to enhance consumption, such as urban and rural income plans and optimizing the use of local government special bonds for project construction [5] - The report also discusses "optimizing supply" through anti-involution measures, which will improve competitive order and price elasticity in certain industries [5] Group 3 - The report indicates that "improving increment" will depend on nurturing new growth drivers, focusing on emerging and future industries like integrated circuits, aerospace, and biomedicine [5] - It stresses the importance of innovation-driven development and the need for long-term support for basic research and technology innovation [5] - The report highlights the necessity of revitalizing existing assets through measures such as urban renewal and optimizing the structure of assets and liabilities [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of securities firms selling non-core real estate assets has become increasingly clear, with companies like China Merchants Securities, Founder Securities, Huaxi Securities, and Hongta Securities actively engaging in asset disposal to focus on their main business operations [2][6]. Group 1: Company Actions - China Merchants Securities has officially listed five properties in Shenzhen for sale, with a total starting price of approximately 148 million yuan, and the listing period ends on March 17, 2026 [2][3]. - The five properties are located in key areas of Shenzhen, with four in Futian District and one in Luohu District, and their individual prices range from 28 million to 30 million yuan [3][4]. - The properties listed include four floors in the Jiahe Huqiang Building and three units in the Bao'an Plaza, with a total area of 3,452.9 square meters previously owned by the company [4][5]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Since 2025, multiple securities firms have been disposing of non-core real estate through various methods, including full sales, piecemeal disposals, and long-term leasing [6][7]. - The most significant real estate disposal in the industry was by Founder Securities, which sold properties worth 730 million yuan to focus on its core business and activate debt assets [6][7]. - The current trend emphasizes the importance of asset activation, with firms aiming to reduce non-financial heavy asset allocations and improve asset turnover by disposing of old office spaces and idle properties [7].

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue and expenditure report for 2025 indicates that 27 out of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China experienced growth in fiscal revenue compared to 2024, reflecting a nearly 90% success rate in local fiscal growth, which is a direct manifestation of economic stability and effective macroeconomic regulation [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Growth - Economic provinces show stable growth in fiscal revenue, with Guangdong's general public budget revenue increasing by 3% year-on-year, maintaining its top position for 35 consecutive years, and tax revenue accounting for 73.3% of total revenue, up by 0.8 percentage points [3] - Jiangsu's general public budget revenue grew by 2.1%, with tax revenue making up 77.4%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points [3] - Zhejiang's general public budget revenue rose by 1.8%, with tax revenue at 80.9%, up by 0.6 percentage points [3] - Shandong, as the first northern province to exceed a GDP of 10 trillion, saw a 2% increase in general public budget revenue, indicating steady fiscal strength [3] Group 2: Non-Tax Revenue and Asset Utilization - Significant growth in non-tax revenue indicates effective "stock activation," with local governments optimizing idle state-owned assets to generate stable non-tax income [4] - For instance, Liuzhou City generated over 26 million yuan in annual rent from leasing state-owned assets, enhancing local fiscal revenue [4] - Liaoning Province reported a 161.3% increase in state-owned capital operating budget revenue in the first half of 2025, driven by increased contributions from state-owned enterprises [4] Group 3: Coordinated Fiscal Development - The 2025 fiscal revenue growth is characterized by widespread increases across regions, with most areas achieving positive growth, contrasting with previous years' volatility [6] - For example, Sichuan's general public budget revenue grew by 3.9%, and Henan's by 2.5%, showcasing a narrowing gap in revenue growth rates among regions [6] - Local fiscal revenue supports key areas such as public welfare and domestic demand, with over 70% of fiscal expenditure directed towards social welfare [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The continued growth of local fiscal revenue is supported by favorable macroeconomic policies, ongoing industrial upgrades, and the implementation of regional development strategies, particularly in central and western regions [6] - There is a need for local governments to optimize revenue structures and enhance revenue quality to address challenges such as reliance on non-tax income and land transfer revenue [8] - Future efforts should focus on maintaining steady fiscal growth while ensuring that fiscal funds effectively support high-quality development and improve living standards [8]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is shifting focus from new developments to revitalizing old properties, with government policies driving this trend [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Transition - The past focus on new construction and expansion is being replaced by a strategy of urban renewal and revitalization of existing properties [3][5] - The government is facing challenges with land financing, leading to a slowdown in land sales and a shift away from large-scale demolitions [5][7] - By 2026, urban renewal and revitalization of old neighborhoods will be the primary focus of the real estate market [7][32] Group 2: Beneficiaries of New Policies - Owners of old properties in prime locations are set to benefit significantly from the "housing ticket" policy, which allows them to exchange their old properties for new ones without direct cash compensation [9][12][18] - The "housing ticket" system has been successfully implemented in various provinces, providing flexibility for property owners and helping to alleviate government compensation pressures [11][14][18] - The new policies are also beneficial for first-time renters, particularly recent graduates, as they will have access to improved rental options in renovated old neighborhoods [20][25][28] Group 3: Government Initiatives - The government is actively promoting the renovation of old neighborhoods, with plans to start 58,000 renovation projects in 2024, exceeding initial targets [22][30] - The focus will be on converting idle old housing into affordable rental units, enhancing living conditions and reducing commuting times for residents [23][25][30] - The government aims to ensure that the supply of affordable housing meets the needs of the population, thereby supporting economic stability and growth [30][32] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The 2026 regulations reflect a shift towards sustainable development in the real estate sector, addressing both the needs of property owners and renters [32][34] - The revitalization of old properties is not just a market trend but a response to policy guidance and market demand, enhancing the value of these properties [34]