[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 27 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 从政策框架看资产配置的均衡化 [Table _Author] 分析师： 郭磊 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 1中共中央政治局 2 月 27 日召开会议，讨论国务院拟提请第十四届全国人民代表大会第四次会议审查的中华人 民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要草案稿和审议的《政府工作报告》稿。关于会议精神，我 们做出简要分析；同时，2 月 16 日《求是》发表习总书记重要文章《当前经济工作的重点任务》2，我们结合文 章对于政治局会议精神做出进一步的学习理解。 会议再次强调了财政政策的"更加积极"和货币政策的"适度宽松"，稳定市场关于宏观经济政策的预期。两会政府 工作报告将会明确赤字率及广义财政系列重要指标，我们预计狭义赤字率和广义赤字率将大致持平于 2025 年 高位。 会议强调，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策 ...

日前，湾财社记者据上海联合产权交易所披露信息发现，招商证券于2026年2月份正式挂牌转让位于深 圳的五处不动产，转让底价合计约1.48亿元，挂牌期截止日期均为3月17日。 多家券商密集落地房产处置 这一动作并非个案，湾财社注意到自2025年以来，方正证券、华西证券、红塔证券等多家券商先后推进 非核心房产出售、出租，行业"盘活存量、聚焦主业"的趋势愈发清晰。 招商证券挂牌出售深圳五处不动产 根据上海联合产权交易所披露的信息显示，招商证券挂牌的5处房产均位于深圳市核心区，其中4处位于 福田区，一处位于罗湖区。 具体来看，福田区的4处房产均位于佳和华强大厦A座，分别为8层、9层、10层、11层；罗湖区的地产 则位于宝安广场ABC栋2-B、2-C、2-D。 这5处地产的挂牌价格在2800万-3000万之间，合计出售价格约1.48亿元。其中，佳和华强大厦的4处房 产均挂2984.51万元，宝安广场的相关房产则挂2813.94万元。 | 资产正式挂牌 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目编号 | 标的名称 | 转让虚价(万元) | 截止日期 | 点击量 | | GR ...

2025年财政收支"账本"出炉，从地方财政收入看，31个省、自治区、直辖市中，27个地区全年财政收入比2024年实现增长，占比近九成。 一些地方非税收入增幅较大，说明"盘活存量"大有可为—— 地方财政增收，是地方经济稳中有进的直观体现，也是宏观调控效能持续释放、发展质量稳步提升的生动佐证。 非税收入的合理增长，体现了"盘活存量"的成效。各地通过梳理闲置国有资产、规范资源有偿使用，让"沉睡资产"变成"增收活水"。比如，柳州市通 过分三期公开拍卖市直行政事业单位国有资产租赁权，盘活办公用房、商业店铺等存量资产，年租金超2600万元，为市本级财政增加稳定非税收入。 翻阅2025年各地财政的增收账，有几个亮点值得关注。 非税收入的合理增长，也让大家看到了"做强增量"的巨大空间。各地提升国有资本经营收益，让更多"国企红利"充实财政钱袋子。比如，得益于水资 源集团等部分省属企业集中上缴国有资本经营收益，辽宁省2025年上半年省本级国有资本经营预算收入 2.1 亿元，增长 161.3%，其中利润收入增长 90.1%。 经济大省财政收入实现"总量稳增、质量向好"，反映出"火车头"牵引有力，我国经济增长韧性在增强，动能在积聚— ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is shifting focus from new developments to revitalizing old properties, with government policies driving this trend [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Transition - The past focus on new construction and expansion is being replaced by a strategy of urban renewal and revitalization of existing properties [3][5] - The government is facing challenges with land financing, leading to a slowdown in land sales and a shift away from large-scale demolitions [5][7] - By 2026, urban renewal and revitalization of old neighborhoods will be the primary focus of the real estate market [7][32] Group 2: Beneficiaries of New Policies - Owners of old properties in prime locations are set to benefit significantly from the "housing ticket" policy, which allows them to exchange their old properties for new ones without direct cash compensation [9][12][18] - The "housing ticket" system has been successfully implemented in various provinces, providing flexibility for property owners and helping to alleviate government compensation pressures [11][14][18] - The new policies are also beneficial for first-time renters, particularly recent graduates, as they will have access to improved rental options in renovated old neighborhoods [20][25][28] Group 3: Government Initiatives - The government is actively promoting the renovation of old neighborhoods, with plans to start 58,000 renovation projects in 2024, exceeding initial targets [22][30] - The focus will be on converting idle old housing into affordable rental units, enhancing living conditions and reducing commuting times for residents [23][25][30] - The government aims to ensure that the supply of affordable housing meets the needs of the population, thereby supporting economic stability and growth [30][32] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The 2026 regulations reflect a shift towards sustainable development in the real estate sector, addressing both the needs of property owners and renters [32][34] - The revitalization of old properties is not just a market trend but a response to policy guidance and market demand, enhancing the value of these properties [34]

Core Insights - A batch of auctioned properties in Guangzhou Nansha was acquired by state-owned enterprises, indicating a trend of government-backed investment in distressed assets [1][4][5] Group 1: Auction Details - 88 newly built residential units in Yitao Garden Phase IV were auctioned on Alibaba, achieving a total transaction value of 80.41 million yuan [1][5] - Over 60 of these units were purchased by Guangzhou Nansha Urban Operation Company, a local state-owned enterprise controlled by the Guangzhou Nansha Development and Construction Group and the Guangzhou Nansha Modern Agricultural Industry Group [3][7] Group 2: Market Implications - The auction reflects a broader strategy where local state-owned enterprises are leveraging low prices in the auction market as a means to acquire assets, which may be replicated in other cities [3][9] - The purchase price for the properties ranged from 6,657 to 7,749 yuan per square meter, significantly lower than the current market price of 20,400 yuan per square meter for similar properties in the area [9][11] Group 3: Strategic Objectives - The acquisition of these properties serves multiple purposes, including supporting local industry, optimizing asset structures, and addressing hidden debts [3][12] - The properties are likely to be repurposed for affordable housing, talent housing, or as part of urban renewal projects, aligning with national policies aimed at revitalizing existing assets [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The transformation of existing resources into valuable assets is crucial for economic development, with a focus on revitalizing dormant assets to facilitate industrial upgrades [1][2] Group 1: Revitalizing Existing Resources - The key to revitalizing existing resources lies in innovative thinking that breaks away from traditional paths, optimizing resource allocation and achieving higher levels of development [2] - It is essential to combine top-level design with precise policies to effectively mobilize dormant resources, ensuring that they become active and valuable [1][2] - A thorough asset inventory and evaluation are necessary to identify projects that can be revitalized, creating a dynamic management system for informed decision-making [1] Group 2: Integration with National Strategies - Revitalizing existing resources should be deeply integrated into national regional development strategies and the construction of modern industrial systems, creating a complementary relationship between existing and new resources [1] - The use of new technologies such as big data, IoT, and AI is vital for transforming traditional infrastructure and production lines, leading to the creation of new business models and scenarios [2] - The market's decisive role in resource allocation must be enhanced, alongside government efforts to break down barriers to resource movement, achieving a new state of resource adaptation [2] Group 3: High-Quality Development - Revitalizing existing assets is a critical task for high-quality development and a means to activate new growth drivers [2] - Exploring diverse paths for revitalization and seeking innovation across multiple dimensions are essential for breathing new life into existing resources [2]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China continues to experience a downward adjustment, but signs of stabilization are emerging after four years of decline, with a notable reduction in the year-on-year decline rates for sales, new construction, and price indices [2][3]. Sales Performance - In 2025, new home sales reached 881 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%, while residential sales were 733 million square meters, down 9.2%. This marks a significant improvement compared to the 12.9% decline in 2024 [2]. - The total sales amount for new homes was 8.39 trillion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year, with residential sales at 7.33 trillion yuan, a decrease of 13.0% [2][3]. - The decline in sales amount is greater than the decline in sales area, indicating developers are adopting a "price reduction promotion" strategy, with the average price of new homes dropping by 4.1% [3]. Development Activity - New construction area for homes in 2025 was 588 million square meters, down 20.4% year-on-year, with residential new construction at approximately 430 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8% [3][4]. - The reduction in new construction reflects a proactive approach to "de-inventory" in response to the adjustments in sales [4]. Inventory and Supply - The growth of new home inventory has slowed significantly, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.6% in 2025, compared to an average annual growth of 13.4% from 2022 to 2024 [4]. - The reduction in inventory is attributed to both proactive de-inventory efforts by the industry and market self-adjustment, which helps stabilize market expectations [4]. Price Trends - The price index for new homes and second-hand homes in 70 cities fell by 3.0% and 6.1% respectively in 2025, with declines significantly smaller than those in 2024 [4]. - The stabilization of prices is crucial for the housing market, influenced by the "control increment" policy and structural reforms in supply [4]. Investment Trends - Real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% in 2025, reflecting a transition from rapid urbanization to a more stable phase of urban development [5]. - The decline in investment is seen as a natural progression, with potential for revitalizing existing stock to open new opportunities in the industry [5][6]. Stock Market Dynamics - Approximately 30% of existing homes are over 20 years old, indicating a significant demand for upgrades and renovations in the stock market [6]. - The increase in transactions of second-hand homes, particularly in mid-to-low price segments, reflects a shift in demand and supports a positive market cycle [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of revitalizing existing resources and optimizing the business environment to stimulate economic growth and consumer spending [1][2] - The company aims to facilitate connections between idle spaces and growing enterprises through organized events such as building investment and demand negotiation meetings [1] - There is a focus on enhancing service quality and creating distinctive features in business buildings to attract and retain companies, thereby fostering a vibrant consumer environment [1] Group 2 - The proposal includes recommendations for the government to strengthen guidance and market operations by classifying and promoting existing commercial buildings with tailored strategies [2] - Encouragement for building operators to improve professional service capabilities and integrate smart management platforms for comprehensive support in areas like legal consulting and financing [2] - The establishment of an industrial ecosystem around buildings is suggested to promote the clustering of enterprises within the same industry or complementary sectors, fostering collaborative development [2]

Core Viewpoint - The key to economic development lies in revitalizing existing assets and optimizing new investments, creating a virtuous cycle that enhances overall economic efficiency [1][2] Group 1: Revitalizing Existing Assets - Various units in the region have implemented multiple measures to awaken "sleeping" assets, leading to significant economic benefits [1] - The relationship between existing and new investments is interdependent, and a balanced approach is necessary to promote both [1] - Revitalizing existing assets requires a thorough understanding of diverse resource forms and conditions, necessitating tailored strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all approach [1] Group 2: Optimizing New Investments - New investments should possess higher technological content, stronger driving capabilities, and better environmental foundations [1] - The focus should be on creating high-tech, efficient, and high-quality products and services to enhance the quality of development [1] - Continuous efforts are required to improve the quality and efficiency of existing assets, contributing to high-quality development [2] Group 3: Systematic Approach to Development - Optimizing institutional mechanisms can resolve many issues and enhance resource allocation and innovation [2] - A systematic approach is essential for the long-term success of revitalizing existing assets and optimizing new investments [2] - The government should create a better business environment and provide precise services to market entities, facilitating the enhancement of existing assets [2]

Core Viewpoint - The vacancy rate of office buildings in first-tier cities has become a significant concern in the commercial real estate sector, indicating challenges and pressures for transformation in the office market [1] Group 1: Vacancy Rates and Market Conditions - As of the end of Q3 2025, the vacancy rates for Grade A office buildings in first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen range from approximately 19% to 30%, with a rate above 20% indicating a supply-demand imbalance [3] - In Shanghai, the vacancy rate for office buildings reached 23.5% by the end of Q3 2025, with significant price reductions observed, such as a drop from 10 yuan per square meter per day to 5 yuan [6][7] - The overall net absorption of Grade A office space in first-tier cities is projected to be about 1.175 million square meters in 2025, a significant decrease from 3.342 million square meters in 2021, highlighting a persistent supply-demand imbalance [9] Group 2: Market Challenges and Competitive Pressures - The phenomenon of "price competition" is prevalent, with tenants comparing prices and demanding lower rents, leading to a decline in rental stability, especially among small and medium enterprises [5] - In competitive areas like the Huaxin district in Shanghai, despite a strong logistics industry presence, the office market struggles due to reduced government subsidies and increasing competition from nearby districts [7] - A high-end office complex in the Jing'an Temple business district has seen its vacancy rate approach 80%, with rental prices dropping significantly due to oversupply in the area [7] Group 3: Recommendations for Addressing Vacancy Issues - Experts suggest addressing the vacancy issue by managing new supply and revitalizing existing stock, including stricter evaluations for new projects and repurposing unused buildings for essential services [9][10] - The Shenzhen government has initiated policies allowing the conversion of idle non-residential properties into affordable rental housing, providing a potential solution to the oversupply of office space [10] - To stimulate demand, there is a need for industrial upgrades and enhancing the service sector, requiring comprehensive measures to attract modern service enterprises [11]