1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is becoming obvious, and the fundamentals lack highlights. The supply of steel is disturbed, and the cost support is loosening. However, due to subsequent steel mill resumption and winter storage replenishment, the further decline space of furnace material prices is limited, and the cost decline rhythm is gradually slowing down. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices. The sector still shows weak performance, and attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment rhythm of the furnace material end [2]. - Overall, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure in the short term. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the downstream replenishment intensity. The resumption of steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the replenishment expectation, and the furnace material prices still have the expectation of a low - level rebound at that time [6] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Iron Element - Supply increment expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing. The supply end is still expected to be disturbed by weather, and the pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on the real side remain to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of scrap steel is rising, and the daily consumption is expected to decline. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] Carbon Element - Coke: There is still room for the cost end of coke to rebound. With the expectation of steel mill resumption and the demand for winter storage replenishment still existing, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase will still be implemented, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [3]. - Coking coal: The winter storage on the demand side is still in progress, and the output of coal mines on the supply side is expected to decline near the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot price still has upward momentum. However, after the trading logic changes, the bullish driving force of the fundamentals for the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [3] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The cost push is relatively weak, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, and the inventory reduction pressure is large. The upward space of the futures price is limited, but the current futures price valuation is low. Under the support of high - cost, beware of the risk of excessive short - chasing [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply and demand in the ferrosilicon market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to mainly follow the sector [3] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The supply is still expected to be disturbed, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [3]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For both rebar and hot-rolled coil, the combination of raw material winter storage and production resumption expectations is likely to compress steel mill profits [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures prices**: RB2605 closed at 3,104 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.74%); HC2605 closed at 3,248 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.79%) [1] - **Trading volume and positions**: RB2605 had a trading volume of 697,016 lots and a position of 1,548,351 lots, with an increase of 43,067 lots; HC2605 had a trading volume of 391,613 lots and a position of 1,294,526 lots, with an increase of 26,969 lots [1] - **Spot prices**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price in Guangzhou remained unchanged; hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan billet remained unchanged [1] - **Basis and spreads**: The basis of RB2605 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 186 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 increased by 2 yuan/ton to 2 yuan/ton; various spreads showed different changes [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel production and inventory data**: On December 31, steel output increased (rebar +3.83 tons, hot-rolled coil +10.97 tons, five major varieties +18.36 tons), total inventory decreased (rebar -12.22 tons, hot-rolled coil -6.26 tons, five major varieties -25.84 tons), and apparent demand changed (rebar -2.24 tons, hot-rolled coil +3.73 tons, total +7.41 tons) [3] - **Production of key steel enterprises**: In mid-December 2025, the average daily output of key steel enterprises decreased (crude steel -1.3%, pig iron -1.9%, steel -1.4%); the steel inventory of key enterprises increased by 8.6% compared to the previous ten-day period [3] - **Policy**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [3] - **Social inventory**: In mid-November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 2.5% month-on-month [3] - **Steel imports**: In October 2025, China imported 50.3 tons of steel, a decrease of 8.2% month-on-month; from January to October, the cumulative import volume decreased by 11.9% year-on-year [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - For both rebar and hot-rolled coil, the combination of raw material winter storage and production resumption expectations is expected to compress steel mill profits [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 were 3,122 yuan/ton and 3,270 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of -15 yuan/ton (-0.48%) and -17 yuan/ton (-0.52%). The trading volumes were 651,840 hands and 364,579 hands, and the open interests were 1,505,284 hands and 1,267,557 hands, with changes of -55,522 hands and -15,762 hands respectively [1] - **Spot Price Data**: Spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in various regions remained unchanged compared to the previous day. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,930 yuan/ton, also unchanged [1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of RB2605 increased by 12 yuan/ton to 178 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 increased by 2 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. The spreads of RB2601 - RB2605, HC2601 - HC2605, HC2601 - RB2601, HC2605 - RB2605, and the spot coil - rebar spread had different changes [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Output and Inventory Data**: On December 25th, steel output of rebar increased by 2.71 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 1.63 tons, and the total of five major steel products decreased by 1.15 tons. Total inventory of rebar decreased by 18.29 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 13.5 tons, and the total of five major steel products decreased by 36.79 tons. Apparent demand of rebar decreased by 5.96 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 8.76 tons, and the total decreased by 1.67 tons. In mid - December 2025, key steel enterprises' daily output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel decreased by 1.3%, 1.9%, and 1.4% respectively. Their steel inventory increased by 8.6% compared to the previous ten - day period [3] - **Policy News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [3] - **Social Inventory Data**: In mid - November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 871 tons, a 2.5% decrease from the previous period [3] - **Import Data**: In October 2025, China imported 50.3 tons of steel, a decrease of 4.5 tons (8.2%) from the previous month. The average price was 1,593.0 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 31.1 US dollars/ton (1.9%) from the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative import was 504.1 tons, a decrease of 68.0 tons (11.9%) year - on - year [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]