Group 1: Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Glass prices are rising [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices have significantly declined [2] - Non - ferrous: Copper prices are rising [2] Midstream - Chemical: PX operating rate has declined, while urea operating rate is rising; PX operating rate was at a high level [2] - Energy: Power plant coal consumption is at a low level [2] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have slightly recovered [2] - Service: The number of domestic flights is at a three - year high due to holidays [2] Group 2: Industry Events Production Industry - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued 4 announcements to implement export controls on items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] - On October 9, three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on the technical requirements for new energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemption from 2026 - 2027, adjusting the technical requirements for pure - electric passenger cars and plug - in (including extended - range) hybrid passenger cars [1] Service Industry - China and India will resume direct flights by the end of October this year [1] Group 3: Key Data - On October 9, the spot price of corn was 2237.1 yuan/ton, down 2.12% year - on - year; the spot price of eggs was 6.3 yuan/kg, down 12.93%; the spot price of palm oil was 9598.0 yuan/ton, up 4.03%; the spot price of cotton was 14764.2 yuan/ton, down 0.84%; the average wholesale price of pork was 18.6 yuan/kg, down 3.47%; the spot price of copper was 85823.3 yuan/ton, up 7.20%; the spot price of zinc was 22140.0 yuan/ton, up 1.45% [33] - For non - ferrous metals, on October 9, the spot price of aluminum was 20970.0 yuan/ton, up 1.34%; the spot price of nickel was 124000.0 yuan/ton, down 0.32%; another spot price of aluminum was 16868.8 yuan/ton, down 0.95%; the spot price of rebar was 3174.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64% [33] - For other metals, on October 9, the spot price of iron ore was 792.2 yuan/ton, down 1.94%; the spot price of wire rod was 3357.5 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the spot price of glass was 15.6 yuan/square meter, up 3.45% [33] - For non - metals, on October 9, the spot price of natural rubber was 14758.3 yuan/ton, down 1.34%; the China Plastic City price index was 788.5, down 0.21% [33] - For energy, on October 9, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 62.6 dollars/barrel, down 1.42%; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 66.3 dollars/barrel, down 1.25%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3762.0 yuan/ton, down 2.39%; the coal price was 791.0 yuan/ton, down 0.25% [33] - For chemicals, on October 9, the spot price of PTA was 4564.5 yuan/ton, down 0.18%; the spot price of polyethylene was 7348.3 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; the spot price of urea was 1583.8 yuan/ton, down 4.31%; the spot price of soda ash was 1262.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national cement price index was 135.4, up 0.44% [33] - For real estate, on October 9, the building materials composite index was 113.0 points, down 1.22%; the national concrete price index was 91.7 points, down 0.02% [33]

美国财长贝森特：不会根据一项数字就改变经济政策。就业数据显示，特朗普批评美联储行动迟缓是正确的。修订后的2024年就业岗位可能减少80万人。 ...

Group 1: Asset Price Volatility - Gold prices surged, reaching a historical high of over $3500 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [3][5] - Brent and WTI crude oil prices experienced significant fluctuations due to Middle Eastern conflicts and anticipated demand recovery from China, although global economic uncertainties limited price increases [3][5] - The US dollar index remained above 98, with increased volatility in currencies like the euro and yen, influenced by conflicting expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts and US economic data [4][6] Group 2: Driving Factors - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, have raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, contributing to higher gold and oil prices [5] - Economic policies, including China's "moderate easing" monetary policy, have bolstered oil demand expectations, while rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have supported gold prices [6] - Market sentiment has shifted towards safe-haven assets like gold amid global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a sell-off in riskier assets such as tech stocks [7] Group 3: Market Outlook - Gold is expected to experience short-term volatility but has a long-term bullish outlook, with potential price targets of $3780 to $4000 if it breaks above $3540 per ounce [8] - Oil prices may rise further if Chinese demand continues to improve and Middle Eastern tensions stabilize, but a global economic slowdown could lead to price corrections [8] - The US dollar's strength may persist in the short term due to safe-haven demand, but potential Federal Reserve rate cuts could weaken its long-term position, with other currencies' performance dependent on their respective economies [9]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 日本首相石破茂在执政党内的关键盟友打算辞职，但他将最终决定权交给了石破茂，与此同时，执政党议员们正在权衡是否要呼吁提前举行领导人选举，以 罢免这位四面楚歌的首相。 干事长森山裕周二表示，他打算辞职，为执政联盟在参议院选举中失去控制权的挫败负责。他在自由民主党一次讨论7月份选举失利原因的全体会议后发表 了上述讲话。此外，日本执政自民党政策调查会长小野寺五典、日本自民党总务会长铃木俊一也向石破茂表达了退任意向。 这三位自民党官员打算辞职的消息进一步削弱了日元，推动美元兑日元冲上148关口上方。 尽管党内有呼声要求石破茂下台，但他已重申打算留任。 失去森山裕将对他党内的地位造成打击，因为他正试图在一些人对其领导感到失望的情况下，艰难地平衡和驾驭一个政党，即便他在公众舆论调查中的支持 率正在上升。 在周二的讲话中，石破茂为自由民主党在7月份失去的许多席位道歉，并表示他无意为了恋栈权力而继续执政，但也谈到了需要推行经济政策并与公众沟 通。 "我们需要展示出实现超过通胀的工资增长的路径，"石破茂说，并补充说他也必须看清仍然存在的经济挑战，包括与美国的贸易谈判。 执 ...

当地时间13日，德国经济研究智库伊福经济研究所公布的一项调查报告显示，近半数德国经济学家对总 理默茨领导的新政府的经济政策给予差评。 德国经济已连续两年萎缩，许多分析师预计今年将陷入停滞。重振经济是默茨政府面临的一项关键任 务。（总台记者 贺俊强） 伊福经济研究所称，受访经济学家认为新政府缺乏结构性改革。 该调查于7月29日至8月5日进行，受访对象为德国170名经济学教授。结果显示，42%的受访者对默茨领 导的"黑红联盟"（联盟党与社民党组成的执政联盟）执政头100天的经济政策给予负面评价，仅有25% 的受访者给予其正面评价。 责编：李磊、王瑞景 ...

来源：国金证券第5小时 新股上市：N鼎佳 920005.BJ * 1、中共中央政治局召开会议，决定今年10月召开二十届四中全会，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议强调，做好下半年 经济工作，要保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。用好各项结构性货币政策工具，加力 支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。在保障改善民生中扩大消费需求。依法依规治理企业无序竞争。推进重点行业产能治理。积极稳妥化 解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务，有力有序有效推进地方融资平台出清。增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好势头。 2、国新办召开新闻发布会介绍，今年初步安排育儿补贴资金预算900亿元左右，8月31日前各地全面开放育儿补贴的申领，支付宝、微信等第三平台将开 通申领入口。地方此前补贴标准高于国家基础标准的，按规定做好评估和备案工作后，可以继续执行。 3、今日凌晨，美联储连续第五次按兵不动，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间不变，符合预期。美联储主席鲍威尔表示现在就断言美联 储是否会像金融市场预期的那样在9月下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, the refined nickel market is in a supply - surplus situation, with the short - term upward momentum weakening. The recommended strategy is to wait for short - term operations and maintain a long - term strategy of selling hedges at high prices. The estimated price range is between 117,000 - 118,000 and 122,000 - 123,000 [1][2] - For the stainless steel market, the market confidence is insufficient, and the nickel - iron price is expected to be weak in the short term. The recommended strategy is similar to that of nickel, with an estimated price range between 124,000 - 125,000 and 130,000 - 131,000 [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai Nickel main contract 2508 opened at 120,960 yuan/ton and closed at 121,100 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.07% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 80,732 lots, and the open interest was 59,940 lots. The trading volume and open interest decreased compared to the previous day. The short - term callback demand exists, and the 117,000 level is a strong support in the medium - to - long term. The spot market prices of mainstream brands decreased, and the premium of refined nickel decreased but remained at a high level, providing support for the futures price [1] - The previous trading day's Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,296 (854.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 206,580 (402) tons [1] Strategy - Short - term operations are recommended to be postponed. The long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. The estimated upper limit of the price range is 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower limit is 117,000 - 118,000. Unilateral trading should be range - bound, and there are no recommendations for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On July 14, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2508 opened at 12,745 yuan/ton and closed at 12,715 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 92,687 lots, and the open interest was 66,494 lots. The trading volume and open interest decreased significantly compared to the previous day due to partial position shifting. The pressure levels are around 12,700 and 13,100, and the 12,400 level is a strong support in the medium - to - long term. The spot market prices in the morning were mostly flat, and increased by 50 yuan/ton in the afternoon, but the trading volume did not improve, and market confidence was still insufficient. The nickel - iron price is expected to be weak in the short term [2] Strategy - Short - term operations are recommended to be postponed. The long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. The estimated upper limit of the price range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,400 - 12,500. Unilateral trading is neutral, and there are no recommendations for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]

Group 1 - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman expresses feeling "politically homeless," criticizing the Democratic Party for not supporting a culture that encourages innovation and entrepreneurship [1] - Altman advocates for "tech capitalism," emphasizing the need to encourage wealth creation while finding ways to distribute wealth broadly [1] - His comments appear to be a response to New York City Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani's statement against billionaires, highlighting a fundamental divide between tech executives and some Democratic politicians on wealth distribution and economic policy [1][2] Group 2 - Altman argues that wealth creation and distribution must go hand in hand, stating, "You cannot just raise the bottom line without raising the top line" [1] - He expresses a preference for discussions on how to enable everyone to have what billionaires possess, rather than eliminating billionaires [3] - This reflects two contrasting views on wealth: one advocating for limiting wealth to achieve equality, and the other promoting overall wealth enhancement to reduce disparities [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper spot market is tight, with low domestic inventories and a rapid decline in LME inventories, indicating support for near - term prices. However, there is significant macro - uncertainty, and investors are trading cautiously. The volatility of copper prices in four markets is at a low level [8]. - From a fundamental perspective, domestic social inventories are low, but the spot premium has narrowed. Consumption in some industries is good, while others show off - season characteristics. The supply of copper concentrates and recycled copper is tight, increasing the probability of smelter production cuts. The expected Trump tariff on imported copper may cause a supply shortage outside the US [8]. - US tariff and economic policies bring uncertainty to the market. The market expects that even if Trump's tax - cut bill is passed, it may have a complex impact on the economy [8]. - In terms of trading strategies, although copper prices have risen slightly this week, it is difficult to form a trend. It is recommended to look for phased trading opportunities in unilateral trading, conduct internal - external reverse arbitrage, and try Shanghai copper term positive arbitrage [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End 3.1.1 Volatility - The volatility of copper prices in four markets has continued to decline. The volatility of COMEX copper prices has fallen to around 17%, and that of LME copper prices has dropped to around 7% [13]. 3.1.2 Term Spread - The B - structure of Shanghai copper term has narrowed. The spread between Shanghai copper 06 - 07 contracts has fallen from 330 yuan/ton on May 30 to 80 yuan/ton on June 6. The LME copper spot premium has expanded, and the C - structure of COMEX copper has narrowed [16]. 3.1.3 Position - The positions of Shanghai copper, LME copper, international copper, and COMEX copper have all increased. Shanghai copper positions have increased by 27,500 lots to 569,400 lots [20]. 3.1.4 Capital and Industry Position - The net long position of LME commercial shorts has increased from 62,700 lots on May 23 to 62,900 lots. The net long position of CFTC non - commercial has risen from 22,600 lots on May 27 to 24,100 lots on June 3 [27]. 3.1.5 Spot Premium - The domestic copper spot premium has narrowed, and the Yangshan Port copper premium has weakened. The US and Rotterdam copper premiums are at high levels, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has risen to a historically high level [33]. 3.1.6 Inventory - Global total inventories have increased, domestic social inventories have stabilized and rebounded, bonded area inventories have recovered, COMEX inventories have increased, and LME copper inventories have decreased [40]. 3.1.7 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - The position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai copper 06 contract is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has rebounded rapidly, indicating tight overseas spot supply [41]. 3.2 Supply End 3.2.1 Copper Concentrate - Copper concentrate imports have increased. In April 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.9244 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 22.16% and a year - on - year increase of 24.55%. Port inventories have decreased rapidly, and processing fees have remained weak [45]. 3.2.2 Recycled Copper - Recycled copper imports and domestic production have decreased significantly. In April, imports were 204,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.46%, and domestic production was 87,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.50%. The scrap - refined spread has expanded, but is below the break - even point, and import profitability has narrowed [48][52]. 3.2.3 Blister Copper - Blister copper imports have increased. In April, imports were 74,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. Processing fees are at a low level [57]. 3.2.4 Refined Copper - Refined copper production has increased more than expected. In May, production was 1.1383 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. Imports have decreased, and exports are profitable, which may lead to domestic supplies being transported overseas [59]. 3.3 Demand End 3.3.1开工率 - The operating rates of copper product enterprises are differentiated and have weakened overall. In May, the operating rate of copper tubes was at a neutral - low level in the same period of history, and that of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a neutral level. The operating rate of wire and cable has continued to decline [63]. 3.3.2 Profit - The copper rod processing fee is at a neutral level in the same period of history and has weakened. The copper tube processing fee has remained stable and is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The processing fees of copper plates, strips, and lithium - ion copper foils have weakened [69]. 3.3.3 Raw Material Inventory - The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In May, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level in the same period of history, and that of copper tubes was at a low level [70]. 3.3.4 Finished Product Inventory - The finished product inventory of copper rods has rebounded, and that of wire and cable has increased. In May, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a neutral - high level in the same period of history, and that of copper tubes was at a neutral - low level [73]. 3.4 Consumption End 3.4.1 Consumption - Domestic copper actual and apparent consumption have performed well. From January to May, cumulative actual consumption was 6.4853 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.52%, and apparent consumption was 6.5169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.70%. Power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy are important supports for copper consumption, and power grid investment has accelerated [78]. 3.4.2 Air - Conditioner and New Energy Vehicle Production - The growth rate of air - conditioner production has slowed down. In April, domestic air - conditioner production was 22.42 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.91%. New energy vehicle production is at a high level in the same period of history. In April, production was 1.251 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 43.79% [79].

Core Viewpoint - The draft document indicates that Japan's economic policy roadmap aims to promote domestic holdings of government bonds to prevent further increases in long-term interest rates [1] Group 1 - The policy is designed to stabilize the bond market and mitigate the impact of rising interest rates on the economy [1] - Emphasis on domestic investment in government bonds reflects a strategic shift in Japan's economic management [1] - The approach aims to enhance financial stability and support economic growth by managing interest rate fluctuations [1]