在治理评价方面，约56%的受访者认为国内腐败状况有所好转，60%认可当前政府的反腐力度。就 非法采矿问题的治理，47%的民众认为马哈马执政期间该问题未进一步恶化，且在采矿区域这一认同比 例达43%。 整体来看，多数加纳人对政府推出的经济政策、治理行动与反腐努力给予肯定，这些举措正在增强 公众对国家发展走向的信心。 据"城市新闻网"12月29日报道，环球信息分析公司（Global InfoAnalytics）发布的最新民调显示， 超半数加纳民众认为其生活水平比去年更好，这表明2026年国家预算的推进正带来积极的社会预期。 根据民调数据，56%的受访者表示生活水平较去年提升，27%认为持平，仅12%感到下降，另有5% 未作评价。在展望方面，70%的选民对2026年生活水平进一步改善抱有信心，仅18%持悲观态度。针对 2026年预算案，近三分之二（66%）的选民表示满意，18%不满意，其余16%持中立态度。 （原标题：多数加纳民众报告称生活水平比去年更好） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides investment suggestions for the aluminum industry, recommending light - position short - term long trades on dips for alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and cast aluminum, while emphasizing the need to control trading rhythm and risk [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,920 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,537 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,875 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars. The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts for Shanghai aluminum was - 65 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; for alumina, it was - 15 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 20,430 hands to 294,373 hands; for alumina, it decreased by 35,592 hands to 205,975 hands. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 900 tons to 519,650 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory on the SHFE decreased by 3,635 tons to 119,995 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Prices**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,710 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 22,070 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2]. - **Basis and Premiums**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 580 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 210 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium was - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium was - 32.55 dollars/ton, down 5.87 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The alumina production in November was 786.50 million tons, down 13.40 million tons; the demand for alumina (for electrolytic aluminum) was 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of alumina was 86.51%, down 0.45%; the supply - demand balance was 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 17,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Shandong metal scrap, it was 16,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. China's imports of aluminum scrap increased by 2,945.61 tons to 158,360.01 tons, and exports decreased by 36.08 tons to 32.46 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import volume of primary aluminum increased by 4,462 tons to 248,261.37 tons, and the export volume decreased by 4,396.36 tons to 24,573.56 tons. The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 1 million tons to 4,524.20 million tons, and the operating rate was 98.21%, down 0.03% [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The output of aluminum products was 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 7 million tons to 57 million tons. The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy increased by 0.74 million tons to 3.09 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The national real estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52. The automobile production was 351.90 million vehicles, up 24 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 13.76%, up 0.53%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.25%, up 0.43%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main at - the - money IV was 13.69%, up 0.0257; the call - put ratio was 1.72, up 0.0321 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - China's November financial data showed that RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 33.39 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's total. At the end of November, M2 increased by 8% year - on - year, M1 by 4.9%, the stock of social financing by 8.5%, and the balance of RMB loans by 6.4% [2]. - Multiple Fed officials spoke. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said inflation was no longer the biggest enemy, and the risk of employment decline was more worrying. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he voted against a rate cut on Wednesday, waiting for more data, and expected more rate cuts next year than the median forecast [2]. - The National Development and Reform Work Conference emphasized strengthening economic monitoring and early - warning analysis, promoting investment to stop falling and stabilize, and boosting consumption with practical and new measures [2]. - At the 2025 - 2026 China Economic Annual Conference, Han Wenxiu said that China's main economic indicators were better than expected, and the economic aggregate was expected to reach about 140 trillion yuan this year. In 2026, efforts would be made to promote the synchronous growth of residents' income and the economy [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract was oscillating strongly, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply of bauxite was expected to gradually increase, and the price of domestic bauxite might decline slightly. The domestic alumina production capacity and operating rate might decline slightly, while the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants remained stable. It was recommended to take light - position short - term long trades on dips [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract was oscillating weakly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The profit of aluminum plants was good, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity continued to grow slightly. Although it was the traditional off - season, the demand for downstream aluminum products remained resilient. The option market sentiment was bullish, and it was recommended to take light - position short - term long trades on dips [2]. 3.10 Cast Aluminum View Summary - The cast aluminum main contract first fell and then rose, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the production of cast aluminum might decline. The demand from downstream enterprises was cautious. It was recommended to take light - position short - term long trades on dips [2].

来源：市场资讯 来源：华尔街见闻 这种不确定性反映了经济数据与选民感受之间的温差。自特朗普上任以来，尽管美国经济在扩张，但就 业增长缓慢，失业率有所上升，许多日常商品和服务的价格上涨，导致许多美国人并未感受到宏观增长 带来的实际好处。 不过，特朗普表示："我认为，等到我们需要讨论选举的时候，也就是几个月后，我们的物价会处于良 好状态。" 矛头直指美联储 特朗普在采访中将大量篇幅用于表达对美联储的不满。他认为，金融市场已经习惯于担心，每当经济活 动或就业数据强于预期时，美联储就会变得更加鹰派以对抗通胀。这种"好消息就是坏消息"的市场逻辑 令他感到沮丧。 "过去，当有好消息时，市场会上涨……现在，当有好消息时，市场反而下跌。如果消息特 别好，市场就会崩盘。" 在采访中，特朗普对当前金融市场的反应逻辑提出质疑，并将此现象归咎于市场对美联储鹰派立场的担 忧。 他明确表示："我不会让任何一个在有好消息时，就意味着你必须自动把利率提高到天花板来扼杀通胀 的人进入美联储。"这一言论直接挑战了央行以数据为导向的决策传统。 美国总统特朗普对其经济政策能否帮助共和党在明年中期选举中获胜表达了不确定性，同时将股市对利 好经济消息的 ...

Group 1 - The President is advocating for more interest rate cuts to lower borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards, especially in light of lagging voter sentiments about the economy [2][3] - The Federal Reserve made its third rate cut of the year but indicated that future cuts may be more challenging, particularly for the next chair after Jerome Powell [2][4] - There is ongoing pressure from the White House regarding interest rates, with concerns about inflation remaining above 2% and a weakening labor market [4][6] Group 2 - The President is attempting to reshape public perception of the economy by showcasing how his policies benefit individuals, such as a firefighter and a waitress, during public events [6][8] - The administration is frustrated with the Democrats' economic messaging, particularly regarding affordability, and is working to counteract this narrative [6][7] - The President plans to increase public appearances to promote his economic achievements and defend his administration's spending focus over the past ten months [8]

Core Insights - A recent poll indicates growing dissatisfaction among the American public regarding the economic policies of the Trump administration, with overall economic sentiment significantly deteriorating [1] Economic Sentiment - 76% of respondents believe the current state of the U.S. economy is "poor," an increase from 67% in July [1] - The majority of respondents attribute the rising cost of living, including healthcare and housing expenses, as a contributing factor to their negative perception of the economy [1] Perception of Economic Policies - Only 15% of respondents feel that the economic policies of the Trump administration have had a positive impact [1] - In contrast, 46% of respondents believe these policies have worsened the economic situation [1]

Group 1: Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Glass prices are rising [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices have significantly declined [2] - Non - ferrous: Copper prices are rising [2] Midstream - Chemical: PX operating rate has declined, while urea operating rate is rising; PX operating rate was at a high level [2] - Energy: Power plant coal consumption is at a low level [2] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have slightly recovered [2] - Service: The number of domestic flights is at a three - year high due to holidays [2] Group 2: Industry Events Production Industry - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued 4 announcements to implement export controls on items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] - On October 9, three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on the technical requirements for new energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemption from 2026 - 2027, adjusting the technical requirements for pure - electric passenger cars and plug - in (including extended - range) hybrid passenger cars [1] Service Industry - China and India will resume direct flights by the end of October this year [1] Group 3: Key Data - On October 9, the spot price of corn was 2237.1 yuan/ton, down 2.12% year - on - year; the spot price of eggs was 6.3 yuan/kg, down 12.93%; the spot price of palm oil was 9598.0 yuan/ton, up 4.03%; the spot price of cotton was 14764.2 yuan/ton, down 0.84%; the average wholesale price of pork was 18.6 yuan/kg, down 3.47%; the spot price of copper was 85823.3 yuan/ton, up 7.20%; the spot price of zinc was 22140.0 yuan/ton, up 1.45% [33] - For non - ferrous metals, on October 9, the spot price of aluminum was 20970.0 yuan/ton, up 1.34%; the spot price of nickel was 124000.0 yuan/ton, down 0.32%; another spot price of aluminum was 16868.8 yuan/ton, down 0.95%; the spot price of rebar was 3174.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64% [33] - For other metals, on October 9, the spot price of iron ore was 792.2 yuan/ton, down 1.94%; the spot price of wire rod was 3357.5 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the spot price of glass was 15.6 yuan/square meter, up 3.45% [33] - For non - metals, on October 9, the spot price of natural rubber was 14758.3 yuan/ton, down 1.34%; the China Plastic City price index was 788.5, down 0.21% [33] - For energy, on October 9, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 62.6 dollars/barrel, down 1.42%; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 66.3 dollars/barrel, down 1.25%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3762.0 yuan/ton, down 2.39%; the coal price was 791.0 yuan/ton, down 0.25% [33] - For chemicals, on October 9, the spot price of PTA was 4564.5 yuan/ton, down 0.18%; the spot price of polyethylene was 7348.3 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; the spot price of urea was 1583.8 yuan/ton, down 4.31%; the spot price of soda ash was 1262.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national cement price index was 135.4, up 0.44% [33] - For real estate, on October 9, the building materials composite index was 113.0 points, down 1.22%; the national concrete price index was 91.7 points, down 0.02% [33]

Economic Policy & Job Market - US Treasury Secretary mentioned economic policies will not be altered based on a single data point [1] - The report suggests that revised 2024 job figures may show a reduction of 800,000 jobs [1] - The report indicates that employment data supports the view that the Federal Reserve's actions were slow, as criticized by Trump [1]

Group 1: Asset Price Volatility - Gold prices surged, reaching a historical high of over $3500 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [3][5] - Brent and WTI crude oil prices experienced significant fluctuations due to Middle Eastern conflicts and anticipated demand recovery from China, although global economic uncertainties limited price increases [3][5] - The US dollar index remained above 98, with increased volatility in currencies like the euro and yen, influenced by conflicting expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts and US economic data [4][6] Group 2: Driving Factors - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, have raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, contributing to higher gold and oil prices [5] - Economic policies, including China's "moderate easing" monetary policy, have bolstered oil demand expectations, while rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have supported gold prices [6] - Market sentiment has shifted towards safe-haven assets like gold amid global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a sell-off in riskier assets such as tech stocks [7] Group 3: Market Outlook - Gold is expected to experience short-term volatility but has a long-term bullish outlook, with potential price targets of $3780 to $4000 if it breaks above $3540 per ounce [8] - Oil prices may rise further if Chinese demand continues to improve and Middle Eastern tensions stabilize, but a global economic slowdown could lead to price corrections [8] - The US dollar's strength may persist in the short term due to safe-haven demand, but potential Federal Reserve rate cuts could weaken its long-term position, with other currencies' performance dependent on their respective economies [9]

Core Viewpoint - The resignation intentions of key allies within Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) are putting pressure on Prime Minister Kishida, leading to discussions about a potential leadership election due to dissatisfaction with his leadership [2][3][6]. Group 1: Resignation and Leadership Challenges - Key LDP officials, including Secretary-General Mori Yasuhiro, have announced their intention to resign, attributing the party's loss of control in the House of Councillors elections to their leadership [2][3]. - Kishida has been urged to implement economic policies swiftly, including tariffs, while he faces internal party dissent and public scrutiny [5][6]. - Despite calls for his resignation, Kishida has reiterated his intention to remain in office, although the loss of Mori's support could weaken his position [6][10]. Group 2: Public Opinion and Election Dynamics - A report from the LDP attributes the party's electoral losses to internal issues rather than Kishida's leadership, citing unattractive inflation countermeasures and failure to engage younger voters [6][7]. - A recent poll indicates that 128 out of 342 LDP members may call for an early leadership election, while 33 oppose it, leaving the outcome uncertain [7]. - Kishida's approval ratings have seen an increase, with a poll showing a rise of 12.5 percentage points to 35.4%, suggesting some public support despite internal party challenges [10].

Core Insights - Nearly half of German economists rated the economic policies of Chancellor Merz's new government negatively, indicating a lack of structural reforms [1] - The survey conducted by the Ifo Institute revealed that 42% of respondents criticized the economic policies during the first 100 days of the "black-red coalition," while only 25% provided positive feedback [1] - Germany's economy has contracted for two consecutive years, with many analysts predicting stagnation for the current year, highlighting the urgent need for economic revitalization under Merz's administration [1]