历史正呈现惊人的轮回，200年前美国不知道该向中国卖什么，200年后的今天，这个问题依然困扰着他 们，中美之间的关税战正迎来扭转乾坤的转折。最新数据一出来，对美西方来说堪称集体暴击，这事儿 值得好好说道说道。 联合国统计过2024年中美双边货物贸易额已经达到6882.8亿美元，是1979年刚建交时的275 倍，但贸易 结构早就不是以前的样子了。每年9月是美国大豆收获的季节，可2024年的美国农场主们看着堆积如山 的大豆，只能欲哭无泪，这些大豆根本卖不出去。 往昔中国曾为美国大豆的最大买家。在鼎盛之时中国所购美国大豆的数量，一度占据其出口总量的三分 之一之多。但2024年中国从美国进口的大豆只有2213万吨，同比降了5.7%，占比跌到了12年来的最 低。 在伊利诺伊州的广袤农业产区，堆积着约2000万吨大豆，无人问津。这些原本承载着丰收希望的作物， 此刻宛如被遗忘的珍宝，静静等待着命运的转机。 农场主们怨声载道，说自己成了关税战的炮灰。美国政府虽然计划给补贴，但跟他们的损失比起来，简 直是九牛一毛。其实不止大豆，美国有五大类产业都在关税战里受了重创。 在大豆市场上巴西与阿根廷抢占先机。2024年中国自巴西进口大 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the negotiations is to reach a comprehensive agreement, indicating both parties' willingness to stabilize trade relations [5][7] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra mentioned that the U.S. and China are very close to resolving the TikTok issue, suggesting significant progress in trade agreement details [3][5] - The discussions included general talks on "trade imbalance," but no solutions were found, reflecting ongoing tensions regarding trade deficits [3][7] Group 2 - China's proposal of a "very aggressive request" during the talks indicates a shift in confidence and strategic initiative from the Chinese side [7] - The outcome of these negotiations is crucial as it may influence the potential for a direct meeting between top leaders during the upcoming APEC summit [7][8] - The timing of the negotiations coinciding with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision highlights the interconnectedness of trade negotiations and monetary policy [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. tariff policies on global trade and the potential economic consequences for the U.S. and its trading partners, emphasizing that the current changes in tariff policies are not indicative of a complete halt but rather a slowdown in frequency [1][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policies - The U.S. has shifted its tariff policies, which are seen as a departure from historical norms, with only the U.S. accepting the new trade system being proposed by the current administration [3]. - The U.S. government aims to reshape the global trade system, but this approach is criticized as ineffective in addressing trade imbalances [3][4]. - The current tariff policies may lead to a higher cost of production in the U.S., potentially isolating it from global trade dynamics [5]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Tariffs may temporarily increase the market share of U.S. products, but automation is identified as the primary reason for the decline in manufacturing jobs, not tariffs [4]. - The U.S. economy is close to full employment, and any push for manufacturing to return could disrupt labor and capital distribution, potentially lowering economic growth rates [4][5]. - The belief that high tariffs will enhance efficiency and innovation is challenged, as historical evidence suggests that such protectionism may stifle innovation without additional supportive policies [5]. Group 3: Consumer and Business Effects - The burden of tariffs is primarily borne by U.S. importers and consumers, with 80% to 90% of tariff costs being absorbed domestically rather than by exporters [5]. - Rising prices due to tariffs may lead to increasing dissatisfaction among American consumers regarding the current trade policies [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the non-ferrous metal industry index increased by 1.78% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 11th among 31 first-level industries in the Shenwan classification [1][2] - In terms of sub-sectors, energy metals (6.32%), minor metals (6.17%), and new metal materials (1.26%) showed the highest growth, while industrial metals rose by 0.73%, and precious metals experienced a significant decline of 4.31% [1][2] Group 2 - As of August 1, gold prices closed at $3,416.00 per ounce, reflecting a 1.80% increase over the past two weeks, while silver prices fell by 3.44% to $37.11 per ounce [3] - The price of black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) rose by 7.78% to 194,000 yuan per ton, while LME tin prices decreased by 0.42% to $33,215 per ton [3] - The China rare earth price index increased by 6.69% to 205.11, with light rare earths like praseodymium-neodymium oxide rising by 10.97% to 531,000 yuan per ton [3] Group 3 - On July 30, the U.S. announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products effective August 1, which includes items like copper pipes and wires, while excluding raw copper materials [4] - Following the announcement, copper prices in New York dropped by over 18%, indicating a significant market reaction to the tariff news [4] Group 4 - The market sentiment is increasingly fragile due to global geopolitical conflicts, tariff policies, and various national policies, suggesting a continuation of weak fluctuations in the short term [5] - Investors are advised to focus on investment opportunities in energy metals, minor metals, and rare earths, as well as potential policy turning points [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the ongoing trade negotiations between the United States and China, with a focus on tariffs, trade imbalances, and macroeconomic governance issues. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Extension of Tariffs**: The U.S. and China have agreed to extend the previously suspended reciprocal tariffs (24% from the U.S. and corresponding measures from China) for 90 days until mid-November, although the U.S. requires presidential approval for this extension [1][2][6][7]. 2. **Trade Imbalance Solutions**: The U.S. has suggested that China alleviate trade imbalances by increasing purchases of U.S. agricultural products and energy, similar to past globalization strategies [1][12]. 3. **Unresolved Issues**: Key unresolved issues include fentanyl tariffs, the TikTok transaction, and the potential visit of Trump to China. These topics were not explicitly discussed during the meeting [1][3][19]. 4. **Concerns Over China's Actions**: The U.S. expressed concerns regarding China's purchase of Iranian oil (over 10% of China's total crude imports) and military-civilian technology exports to Russia (valued at $15 billion), which could lead to secondary sanctions [1][15]. 5. **Macroeconomic Governance Discussions**: The talks included discussions on macroeconomic governance issues such as overcapacity and economic imbalances, with the U.S. highlighting China's significant share in global manufacturing [10][11]. 6. **Future Meetings**: Another meeting is expected around mid-November, with potential discussions in late October to address unresolved issues and maintain a constructive dialogue [19][21]. 7. **Trump's Evaluation of the Meeting**: Trump described the meeting as "very good," indicating a positive outlook on the tariff extension and overall discussions [7][20]. 8. **Potential Visit to China**: If invited, Trump may consider visiting China between late October and early November, avoiding significant domestic events [9][20]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Gradual Tariff Implementation**: The U.S. plans to implement lower tariffs initially and gradually increase them based on market reactions, emphasizing that these measures are not targeted at specific countries but aimed at rebuilding the domestic industrial system [14]. 2. **International Sanctions Coordination**: The U.S. is encouraging allies to join in potential secondary sanctions against China, which complicates trade negotiations and adds uncertainty to U.S.-China relations [16][17]. 3. **Long-term Uncertainties**: Despite short-term stability in U.S.-China relations, there are concerns about potential shifts in strategy from the Trump administration after late October, which could lead to increased tensions [21][22].

Group 1 - The new tariffs will take effect on August 1, with the rate on Canadian imports increasing from 25% to 35% [1] - The "reciprocal tariffs" set by Trump range from 10% to 41% for various countries and regions [2] - Trump announced a 50% general tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective August 1 [3] Group 2 - The new copper tariffs are part of a broader strategy to boost domestic industries and address "trade imbalances" following previous tariffs on steel and aluminum [3] - The White House indicated that the copper tariffs will not be combined with additional tariffs on automobile imports [3] - There is a requirement for 25% of high-quality copper scrap and raw copper products to be sold domestically, although this is not expected to have a significant short-term impact [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective from August 1 [1][2] - The new tariffs are part of a broader strategy to boost domestic industries and address trade imbalances, following previous tariffs on steel and aluminum [2] - The tariffs will not apply to copper raw materials and scrap, which are exempt from the "Section 232" provisions [1][2] Group 2 - Following the announcement, copper prices in New York plummeted over 18% within minutes [2] - The White House indicated that these copper tariffs will not be cumulative with additional tariffs on automobile imports [2] - There is a requirement for 25% of high-quality copper scrap and raw copper products to be sold domestically, although this is not expected to have immediate significant impact [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective from August 1, which may significantly increase costs for U.S. manufacturers and impact the manufacturing sector negatively [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on all copper imports starting August 1, excluding raw copper and copper scrap from the "232 clause" or reciprocal tariffs [1]. - The new tariffs are part of a broader strategy to boost domestic industries and address trade imbalances, following previous tariffs on steel and aluminum [2]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the exclusion of the main refined copper import form from the tariff plan, New York copper prices plummeted over 18% within minutes [2]. Group 3: Domestic Processing and Export Restrictions - The White House has mandated that 25% of high-quality copper scrap and raw copper products must be sold domestically, although this restriction is not expected to have a significant short-term impact, as approximately 40% of U.S. copper scrap and 75% of copper concentrate are already processed domestically [2].

Group 1 - The exclusion of refined copper from the tariff plan led to a significant drop in copper prices, with New York copper prices falling approximately 20% in a matter of minutes, marking the largest single-day decline in history [1] - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. saw its stock price drop by about 10%, while Southern Copper's stock fell over 6%, indicating a weakening of the premium on U.S. copper prices [3] - The decision to exclude refined copper is seen as a positive development for companies like Codelco, which exports refined copper to the U.S., as stated by Codelco's chairman [3] Group 2 - Starting August 1, a 50% tariff will be imposed on various imported copper products, including semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, while raw copper materials and scrap copper will not be subject to these tariffs [4] - The new tariffs are part of a broader strategy by the Trump administration to boost domestic industries and address trade imbalances, following previous tariffs on steel and aluminum [4] - The U.S. currently relies on imports for about half of its copper, with a significant portion coming from Chile, highlighting the importance of global trade flows for this metal [7] Group 3 - The decision to differentiate between refined copper and semi-finished copper in the tariff policy was influenced by lobbying from the copper industry, as there is a belief that the U.S. lacks sufficient capacity to immediately replace all copper imports [6] - The exclusion of refined copper from tariffs is expected to disrupt global copper trade flows, as recent shipments to the U.S. may be redirected for re-export [5]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, stated that tariffs are not an appropriate measure to address trade imbalances [1] Group 1 - Kato emphasized that relying on tariffs could lead to negative consequences for both domestic and international economies [1] - The minister highlighted the importance of dialogue and cooperation among nations to resolve trade issues rather than imposing tariffs [1] - Kato's comments reflect Japan's stance on maintaining free trade principles in the face of rising protectionism globally [1]