Economic Overview - In July, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.7% year-on-year, a slowdown of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year in July, marking a new low for the year, and down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[18] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, continuing a decline for four consecutive months[24] Industrial Production - The growth rate of industrial added value for the first seven months was 6.3% year-on-year[8] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing maintained high growth rates, with increases of 9.3% and 8.4% respectively in July[8] - Export delivery value growth slowed to 0.8% in July, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[8] Consumer Market - The retail sales of goods in July grew by 4.0%, while catering services increased by only 1.1%[18] - The "old-for-new" policy pause in some regions led to a significant drop in related goods sales growth[18] - Sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment grew by 28.7%, down from 32.4% in the previous month[18] Fixed Asset Investment - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, a slowdown of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[24] - Infrastructure investment growth was 7.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[26] - Private investment growth fell to -6.3% in July, indicating a significant decline in private sector confidence[26] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year from January to July, with the decline widening by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[33] - New housing construction area fell by 19.4%, while the sales area of new commercial housing dropped by 4.0%[34] - The price index for new residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month in July[34]

Economic Performance - Industrial production shows seasonal weakness, with blast furnace operating rates down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 1.0%[1] - Infrastructure construction remains weak, with cement grinding rates down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year to 4.6%[1] - Port cargo throughput related to exports increased by 5.7% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 4.1%[1] Price Trends - Agricultural product prices declined, with egg, fruit, and pork prices down by 1.5%, 1.3%, and 0.4% respectively[2] - Industrial product prices rebounded, with the South China Industrial Price Index up 3.1% month-on-month, and the energy and chemical price index up 5.6%[2][57] Market Demand - New housing transaction area in 30 major cities fell significantly, down 13.9 percentage points year-on-year to 5.1%[30] - Daily average new home transaction area in first-tier cities dropped sharply, down 38.3% year-on-year to 14.2%[30] - Shipping prices increased significantly, with the CCFI composite index rising by 8% month-on-month, and the West America route rates up 14.8%[45]

Group 1 - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Ramsden, indicates that his focus in the short term will likely remain on the domestic economy [1]

Group 1 - The Malaysian Prime Minister stated that despite rising global headwinds and the imposition of unilateral tariffs, the domestic economy remains fundamentally resilient [1]

首先，中美贸易谈判结果落地，市场关注焦点转向国内经济。5 月 12 日下午，新华社发布了《中 美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，中美两国同时大幅下调之前加征的关税。中美经贸谈判的效率和互相减 免关税的幅度总体超出投资者预期。当然，四月中旬以来，市场一直在修复之前的跌幅，部分宽基指数 甚至已经超过了四月初的点位，也就说修复逻辑也有很大程度上反馈在市场上了。因此，四月的经济数 据、五月初降准降息的效果和相关对冲政策的落实正在成为短期市场的关注焦点。 其次，两市波动收敛，成交萎缩。周一，两市低开后略有修复，全天呈现窄幅波动特征。两市量能 在 1 万亿元左右，较上周五继续减少，近期处于连续缩量状态。微观结构上，全天个股涨多跌少，涨停 股票数量破百。当天市场热点主要集中在房地产和国防军工等行业。投资风格方面，中小盘涨幅领先， 大盘蓝筹表现低迷。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指处于上有压力，下有支撑的震荡波动。沪指于 4 月中旬逐步企稳反弹，目 前已经回补了 4 月 7 日的向下跳空缺口，上方正面临着今年一季度高点和去年四季度的成交密集区的压 力，预计继续反弹的阻力将有所增大。当然，市场的主要中长期均线仍提供了重要的技术支撑，保持震 ...