新华财经北京12月19日电道富投资管理公司（State Street Global Advisors）高级固定收益策略师 Masahiko Loo指出，尽管日本央行未在本次会议上加息，若未来采取加息行动，市场可能将其解读 为"鸽派加息"，从而引发日元短期波动。 （文章来源：新华财经） 当前市场焦点已转向日本央行行长植田和男即将举行的新闻发布会。Masahiko Loo预计，植田和男的讲 话基调可能保持中性，其前瞻性指引或将暗示在2026至2027年期间逐步推进货币政策正常化，但不会释 放过于鹰派或鸽派的信号。他强调，植田和男需在通胀前景、薪资增长与金融市场稳定之间维持"微妙 的平衡"。 Masahiko Loo分析称，即便出现此类波动，日元兑美元汇率在中长期内仍将受到两方面支撑：一是美联 储转向宽松货币政策的预期增强；二是日本投资者正从历史低位逐步提高外汇对冲比率。基于此，他维 持对美元兑日元135–140区间的较长期目标判断不变。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent changes in the demand for dollar hedging among global investors following the impact of U.S. tariff policies, indicating a reversal in trends observed in previous months [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar Hedging Trends - After the initial shock from U.S. tariff policies in early April, the demand for dollar hedging increased, but recent data from State Street Bank shows that global investors have reduced their hedging positions to levels close to those before early April [1]. - The current hedging ratio stands at 21.6%, down 2 percentage points from May, indicating a stabilization in hedging activities [1]. - Michael Metcalfe from State Street Bank noted that the changes in hedging ratios are not as volatile as previously observed, where fluctuations could reach up to 10% [1]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - The correlation between the dollar and U.S. stock market performance has shifted, as both experienced declines after April, challenging the notion that the dollar serves as a reliable hedge against stock market downturns [3]. - Despite the low hedging ratio, Metcalfe pointed out that investor behavior has not significantly changed, suggesting that investors are taking a longer-term view when assessing currency protection levels [3]. - The worst-case scenarios regarding trade tariffs appear to have been avoided, allowing the dollar to gain some stability in July, coinciding with a rebound in the S&P 500 index [3]. Group 3: Costs and Future Outlook - The cost of dollar hedging has increased, with euro-based investors seeing costs rise from a low of 1.31% last September to over 2.40% in June and July, currently remaining above 2.20% [4]. - Investors seem to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, assessing whether the economic conditions observed in the first eight months of 2025 will repeat [4]. - Despite the dollar's significant monthly gain in July, Wall Street forex strategists remain bearish on the dollar, anticipating that its rebound may not be sustainable [4]. Group 4: Economic Concerns and Dollar Outlook - Concerns regarding the reliability of U.S. economic data have been raised due to weak economic indicators and questions surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve [5]. - Bank of America warned that the dollar could face adverse conditions if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates amid rising inflation [5]. - Historical analysis indicates that the dollar tends to depreciate before and after interest rate cuts, suggesting a potential continuation of the current trend [5].