最近我对身为大学生的女儿说：如果你想从事工程领域的工作，除了学习传统的工程课程，还应当专注 于研习哲学。为什么呢？因为这会提升你的编程能力。 这话出自一名工程师之口，或许看似有悖常理。但围绕你想要解决的问题构建清晰的思维模型，以及在 着手思考 "如何做" 之前先理解 "为何做"，这些能力正变得愈发关键，尤其是在人工智能时代。 曾经有一段时间，为了创建一个计算机程序，我必须亲自拨动开关或在穿孔卡片上打孔。那时的创作过 程直接涉及计算机内存位数或寄存器的复杂细节。随着计算机拥有数十亿个晶体管和数万亿个存储单 元，我们的软件开发过程借助计算机语言不断提升层次，这些语言将底层硬件的复杂性抽象化，使开发 者几乎可以完全专注于算法质量，而非二进制的 0 和 1。 在管理工程团队的数十年间，我学到的一项至关重要的技能就是提出恰当的问题。这与使用人工智能并 无太大差异：大型语言模型（LLM）的输出质量对提示的质量极为敏感。模糊或表述不当的问题会让 人工智能试图猜测你真正想问的内容，进而增加得到不准确甚至完全编造答案的概率（这种现象常被称 为 "幻觉"）。正因如此，为了充分发挥人工智能的作用，人们首先必须掌握推理、逻辑和第一性 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs plans to acquire a portion of loans from Hong Kong developer New World [1] Group 1 - The acquisition is part of Goldman Sachs' strategy to strengthen its position in the Asian real estate market [1] - New World has been facing financial challenges, making its loans an attractive target for investment [1] - This move reflects a broader trend of investment banks seeking opportunities in distressed assets amid market fluctuations [1]

摘要今日周三(12月17日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4324美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报4321.96 美元/盎司，涨幅0.46%，最高上探至4325.04美元/盎司，最低触及4300.39美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金 短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周三(12月17日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4324美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报4321.96美 元/盎司，涨幅0.46%，最高上探至4325.04美元/盎司，最低触及4300.39美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短 线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 高盛最新研报称，美联储或在2026年前采取比市场预期更积极的降息路径。尽管当前政策基调仍为"按 兵不动、评估数据"，但决策层对劳动力市场可持续性的担忧升温，可能降低进一步宽松的门槛。 基于此，高盛预计本轮宽松周期将延续至2026年，联邦基金目标利率或降至3%及以下。预测依托两大 前提：一是通胀继续温和回落；二是劳动力市场显现更多疲软迹象，为解除剩余紧缩政策提供空间。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 黄金昨日再度收出十字星，日内整体呈现先涨后跌的节奏——早间走高，11点后承压回落。结合白银走 势来看，今日行情仍倾向于区间震荡为 ...

市场聚焦12月15日发布的日本短观调查，该数据反映的企业盈利、就业及投资意愿将为日银政策决策提 供核心依据。若调查显示企业景气度回升、薪资增长预期增强，将进一步巩固加息预期，推动日元走 强；反之则可能令日银暂缓行动，缓解汇价下行压力。 12月15日，美元兑日元汇率报155.82，整体呈现窄幅震荡态势。当前汇价走势主要受日美两国央行政策 博弈主导，市场情绪聚焦于日本央行12月议息会议与美联储降息后的政策路径分歧。 日本央行加息预期持续升温，行长植田和男此前明确表示12月18-19日货币政策会议将"酌情做出加息决 定"。最新市场定价显示，日本央行12月加息25个基点至0.75%的概率已升至80%，而路透调查显示九成 经济学家均预测本次会议将加息，推动日美利差收窄预期进一步强化。值得注意的是，日银内部倾向 于"走一步看一步"的加息策略，计划淡化"中性利率"指引，转而根据经济反馈动态调整政策节奏，这也 为后续加息路径增添了不确定性。 美联储方面，12月已如期完成年内第三次降息(25个基点)，将联邦基金利率下调至3.5%-3.75%，但政策 分歧显著：本次决议出现3票反对，创6年以来反对票数量新高，部分委员认为明年应维 ...

就在昨天，平安起诉了华夏幸福，还有华夏幸福的董事长王文学。两家公司之前积攒的矛盾，彻底爆发 了。 2018年，华夏幸福因为环京楼市限购，陷入困境。 2022年，反对华夏幸福的"以股抵债"；后来又因为"2元置换带"方案，反对它2025年半年报净亏68亿， 然后减持股份； 中国平安与华夏幸福，彻底决裂了！ 平安看中了它的产业新城模式，以"白马骑士"的身份两次入股，合计投入了180亿，拿下华夏幸福25% 的股权，成为了第二大股东。 却没想到，华夏幸福在2021年暴雷。原来的大股东华夏控股的质押股份被平仓，平安被动成为了第一大 股东。 平安本来想拉华夏幸福一把，买了它十几笔金融产品，新增了360亿的债权投资。前前后后，对华夏幸 福的风险敞口达到540亿。 从暴雷后到2021年，平安对华夏幸福一直是支持的态度，牵头成立债委会、帮助它推进债务重组。 但之后隔阂就产生了。 但华夏幸福也有苦衷，金融负债高达2192亿，从2021年债务重组到今年11月，虽然已经化解了将近1927 亿，但也只是解决了债务的"形式"问题。 现在已经资不抵债，现金流和资产变现能力，根本无法支撑还债，预重整是彻底解决的途径。 但平安认为，预重整的程序 ...

本周美联储议息会议的市场预期正在形成一套清晰的"剧本"。 周一，根据Academy Securities策略师Peter Tchir的分析，市场为12月降息定价的概率高达95%，但鲍威尔的鹰派表态或许已不再重要——作为即将成为"跛脚 鸭"的美联储主席，他的言论对新年后的政策影响力正在减弱。 野村表示，如果市场"老实"地对"鹰派降息"做出反应，这就是一场流动性的逆转：债券和股票将因获利回吐而走弱，美元则会走强，美股科技股和成长股面临估 值压力。如果市场表现基于"哈塞特交易"，美债收益率曲线将陡峭化，全球经济复苏预期升温，周期性股票将表现出色，而美元将再度承压。 值得关注的是，市场可能低估了未来财政部、美联储与白宫之间的鸽派协调程度，以及为实现"3-3-3目标"（3%经济增长、3%短端收益率、10年期国债收益率 保持在3%区间）而采取的"跳出常规"的政策工具。 随着特朗普即将宣布新任美联储主席人选，国家经济委员会主任哈塞特Kevin Hassett成为最有力的候选人。财政部长贝森特不仅要为特朗普物色合适的美联储 掌门人，还需确保新主席能够迅速推动降息，否则他自己的职位也可能不保。特朗普已明确表示，贝森特的命运与美 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The geopolitical situation remains uncertain as the UN Security Council supports the US President Trump's peace plan for Gaza, while Hamas refuses to disarm, indicating ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas [1] - US economic data shows resilience, with the New York Fed manufacturing index for November at 18.7, significantly above the expected 5.8 and previous 10.7, suggesting short-term pressure on gold prices [1] - Long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to underlying issues with US dollar credibility, despite short-term economic improvements potentially pressuring gold prices [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Global crude oil supply remains high, with Russian ports resuming exports and US refinery utilization increasing seasonally, maintaining a supply-rich environment [2] - US economic resilience and trade agreements with other economies may improve oil demand, with the EU raising its GDP growth forecast from 0.9% to 1.3%, indicating potential recovery in oil demand [2] - Overall, the oil market consensus is that supply is ample, which may limit price increases, while demand may be stabilizing, suggesting a period of adjustment for oil prices [2] Group 3: US Dollar Index - Recent US economic data mostly exceeded expectations, indicating a robust economy, while the Fed does not prioritize the employment market as a key factor for monetary policy adjustments [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December is at 42.9%, with a 57.1% chance of no cut, suggesting reduced likelihood of further rate cuts in the near term [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The dollar index has shown support at the 62-day moving average, with two consecutive days of gains, indicating potential for further upward movement [4] - The Nikkei 225 index is showing weakness, trading below the 20-day moving average, with risks of breaking below the 62-day moving average, which could open up further downside [5] - Copper prices are also under pressure, with multiple days of declines and potential for further drops if the 62-day moving average is breached [6] Group 5: Market Overview - Goldman Sachs indicates that central banks may significantly purchase gold in November, maintaining a price forecast of $4,900 by the end of next year [7] - The EU has adjusted its GDP growth forecast for this year from 0.9% to 1.3%, while lowering next year's forecast from 1.4% to 1.2% [7]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a strong recovery since 2025, with fundraising exceeding HKD 200 billion, regaining its position as the global leader in IPOs [1] - UBS has played a pivotal role in this resurgence, leading significant projects such as the listings of Mixue Ice City and CATL, and participating in BYD's placement [1][2] - The outlook for the Hong Kong IPO market remains positive, driven by the influx of quality companies and the return of foreign capital [1][6] Market Performance - The fundraising in the Hong Kong IPO market has surpassed expectations, with the market returning to the top globally in the first three quarters of the year [2] - The "924 policy" introduced last year signaled a positive shift, with high-quality foreign investors showing strong interest in projects like China Resources Beverage [2] - UBS's role in BYD's placement, raising approximately HKD 435 billion (around USD 56 billion), has significantly boosted market confidence [2] Representative Projects - Mixue Ice City is highlighted as a landmark project that opened the IPO market in Q1, setting a record for frozen capital and demonstrating strong institutional demand [3] - CATL's successful listing, with a "0 discount" pricing strategy, reflects the positive trend of domestic and foreign capital participation [3] Impact of HKEX Reforms - Recent reforms by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) have positively influenced the market, allowing larger companies to issue shares at more reasonable scales [4] - The new regulations have stabilized the allocation ratio between institutional and retail investors, enhancing pricing mechanisms and improving post-listing performance [4] Foreign Capital Trends - There is a clear trend of foreign capital returning to the Hong Kong IPO market, particularly from Europe and the Middle East [5] - The shift in foreign investment is driven by the need for diversified asset allocation, with China becoming a key focus for global investors [5] Future Outlook - The outlook for the Hong Kong IPO market in the next 1-2 years remains optimistic, supported by a positive cycle of supply and demand [6] - Key trends include diversification in company size and industry, a strong linkage between supply and demand, and the globalization of Chinese enterprises [7]

Market Performance - US stock market opened lower, with all major indices declining: Dow Jones down 0.88%, S&P 500 down 1.2%, and Nasdaq down 1.63% [1] - Major tech stocks fell significantly, with Oracle, Tesla, and Intel dropping over 3%, while Google and Nvidia fell over 2% [2] Chinese Stocks - Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index experienced a decline, initially dropping over 2% and later down over 1.6% [2] - Notable declines in Chinese stocks included Bilibili down over 4%, NIO and Xpeng down over 3%, and Alibaba, JD, and Li Auto down over 2% [2] Commodity Prices - Spot gold decreased by 1.75%, priced at $3930.99 per ounce [3] - Bitcoin fell to $102,979, a 4.45% drop in the last 24 hours, while Ethereum dropped to $3,475.39, down 6.69% in the same period [3] Market Outlook - Top executives from major Wall Street investment banks warned of potential market bubbles, expressing concerns over current stock valuations [4] - Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs predict a possible market correction of 10% to 20% within the next 12 to 24 months, emphasizing that such corrections are a normal market characteristic [4] - Capital Group's CEO noted that while corporate earnings are strong, valuation levels are challenging, with most investors viewing market valuations as reasonable to full [4] - Citadel's CEO highlighted that the market is currently in a bullish phase, which is often characterized by irrational behavior [4]

Group 1 - The core sentiment in the global market is characterized by "risk-taking," driven by positive news from US-China trade negotiations, leading to a surge in risk assets [2] - The S&P 500 reached a new high, increasing by 1.2%, indicating a market mood where investors are eager to participate [2] - Gold prices dropped below $4,000, while the US dollar saw a slight decline, and there was a divergence in US Treasury yields with short-term (2-year) rising and long-term (10-year) falling [2] Group 2 - The offshore RMB exhibited three key movements: a jump at market open, an expanded increase following the PBOC's announcement of the central parity rate, and a pullback before the US market opened [3] - The RMB's restrained performance serves as a warning to global investors, indicating a focus on results rather than emotional trading [4] - The market is currently in a state of pause as investors assess the potential details of the trade agreement, with some aspects being easier to agree upon while deeper core disagreements remain unresolved [4]