Market Overview - The report indicates a short-term shift from "narrow circle" to "expanded circle" in the equity market, driven by improved market sentiment and liquidity, alongside mid-year performance impacts [1][4] - Current market sentiment is high, but the upward space for indices may stabilize, necessitating a focus on structural rotation opportunities [1][4] Sector Performance - The report highlights that the banking, non-banking, and dividend sectors will continue to play a stabilizing role for the index [1][4] - Key themes for low-positioned investments include technology (strong performance, policy catalysts, US restrictions easing), innovative pharmaceuticals (overseas expansion, turnaround), rare earths (US-China competition, price increases), new energy (anti-involution), and military industry (military parades) [1][4] Market Style and Volatility - Last week, small-cap growth style outperformed, while the volatility of large and small-cap styles remained at near-year lows, with value growth style volatility continuing to rise [2][6] - The report notes that the excess return dispersion of industry indices remained at near-year lows, with a slight decrease in industry rotation speed and an increase in the proportion of rising constituent stocks [2][6] Trading Activity - Trading concentration increased, with the top 100 stocks' transaction value and the top 5 industries' transaction value both rising [2][6] - Market volatility remains low, while turnover rates have slightly increased [7][8] Commodity Market Insights - In the commodity market, the precious metals sector maintains a strong trend, while other sectors show mixed performance, with the non-ferrous sector's trend strength declining [18][21] - Precious metals have seen a rapid increase in basis momentum, while other sectors exhibit volatility [18][21] Options Market Analysis - The implied volatility of the SSE 50 index is on the rise, reaching historically high levels, while the implied volatility of the CSI 1000 has decreased [24] - The skew between call and put options has widened, indicating heightened overall market sentiment driven by policies against involution [24][25] Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market shows that the premium rate for conversion remains relatively high, with transaction amounts slightly increasing [30] - The proportion of low conversion premium bonds has remained stable, and credit spreads continue to stay at relatively low levels [30]

分析师： 蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 | | 宏观主线梳理 | | --- | --- | | 海外宏观 | 美国经济初代防名自边际趋弱,大而美法案将加剧财政示字压力 | | | > 劳动力市场韧性仍存,通胀风险相对可控 | | | ◆ 6月新增非农就业13.9万人持产预期,不过结构性风险显现。5月美国通胀显示关税带来的价格风险相对可控,不过居民可选消费 | | | 需求下降。预计6月开始,关税对价格的冲击可能会有所体现。但程度或低于市场预期。我们预计芳经济数据不出现巨大的变化, | | | 9月之前美联储仍将按兵不动。 | | | > 在美国关税暂缓期7月到期后，美国大概率与多数国家达成部分贸易协议或延期，对少数国家实施关税 | | | ◆ 参议院通过的法案版本带来更高的财政赤字,可能进一步推动国债收益率上行。 | | | ◆ 7月9日关税豁免到期后,美国大概率将对大部分国家延长协议或达成部分贸易协议,可能会对少数国家实施关税。 上半年经济总量韧性较强,政策或处于观察窗期 | ...