Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of a systematic approach to trading, focusing on multi-timeframe analysis and trend-following strategies to enhance trading success [6][10][15] Group 1: Trading Strategies - Multi-timeframe resonance strategy increases win rates from 50% to 70% by confirming market direction across different timeframes [6][8] - The strategy involves three layers: long-term trend identification (daily), directional confirmation (60-minute), and precise entry points (5-minute) [7] - The article illustrates a successful trade in lithium carbonate, highlighting a significant profit with a risk-reward ratio of 1:12 [7][12] Group 2: Risk Management - Emphasizes the importance of trend-following and avoiding counter-trend trades, which account for 90% of losses [9][10] - Advocates for small stop-losses (not exceeding 0.5% of total capital) and allowing profits to run without predetermined exit points [11][12] - The article stresses that small stop-losses serve as a safety net while larger take-profits act as a profit engine [13] Group 3: Selection of Trading Instruments - Highlights the significance of choosing the right instruments, suggesting that traders should select the strongest instruments for long positions and the weakest for short positions [14] - Provides an example of iron ore outperforming other commodities during a market downturn, reinforcing the principle of "the strong get stronger, and the weak get weaker" [14] Group 4: High Probability Trading - Defines high probability trading not as prediction but as adherence to established rules [15] - The article encourages traders to build their own high-probability rules based on multi-timeframe analysis and trend confirmation [15]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 10 月 19 日 利率价量择时信号整体仍偏多 ——利率市场趋势定量跟踪 20251017 利率市场结构变化 - 10 年期国债到期收益率录得 1.82%，相对上周下降 2.14BP。当前 利率水平、期限和凸性结构读数分别为 1.64%、0.38%、-0.09%， 从均值回归视角看，目前处于水平结构点位偏低、期限结构点位 偏低、凸性结构点位接近历史低位的状态。 利率价量周期择时信号：5 年期看多、10 年期中性、30 年期看多 美债价量周期择时信号：偏多 - 基于 5 年国债 YTM 测算的利率多周期择时信号为：长周期向下突 破、中周期无信号、短周期向下突破。综合来看，当前合计下行突 破 2 票、上行突破 0 票，最终信号的综合评分结果为看多。 - 基于 10 年国债 YTM 测算的利率多周期择时信号为：长周期无信 号、中周期无信号、短周期向下突破。综合来看，当前合计下行突 破 1 票、上行突破 0 票，最终信号的综合评分结果为中性震荡。 - 基于 30 年国债 YTM 测算的利率多周期择时信号为：长周期无信 号、中周期向下突破、短周期向下突破。综合来看，当前合计下行 ...