一、 所谓交易，不过是借假修真 在这个市场上，每一天开盘，都是一场赤裸裸的人性公开展览。 一根K线，两种颜色。看似冰冷的数字背后，是无数人贪婪、恐惧、犹豫、愤怒与狂喜的交织。它是欲 望与理智激烈搏杀后，在盘面上留下的带血痕迹。 有人说，期货市场是埋葬精英的坟墓。这并非危言耸听。人类历史上的智者，如牛顿、爱因斯坦，甚至 政治强人丘吉尔，都在这片红绿海洋中折戟沉沙。牛顿在巨亏后曾感叹："我可以计算天体运行的轨 迹，却无法计算人性的疯狂。" 为什么？因为在社会生活中，我们可以用面具、用学历、用地位去掩饰人性的弱点。但在交易市场，你 的每一次下单，都会将你内心最深处的贪嗔痴暴露无遗。 你以为你在交易市场，其实是市场在交易你。 它像一面照妖镜，折射人生，映照人性。 二、 痛苦的根源：只有背叛本能，才能触碰真理 在期货市场，做正确的事，往往意味着违背人性。 当应该恐惧时： 本能会让你侥幸，让你死死抱着亏损的单子，幻想价格回调，结果越陷越深，直至爆 仓。 大多数人的失败，不是因为不懂技术，而是无法超越基因里的恐惧与贪婪。 心理学家马斯洛曾说："心若改变，你的态度跟着改变；态度改变，你的习惯跟着改变；习惯改变，你 的性格跟着 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of a systematic approach to trading, focusing on multi-timeframe analysis and trend-following strategies to enhance trading success [6][10][15] Group 1: Trading Strategies - Multi-timeframe resonance strategy increases win rates from 50% to 70% by confirming market direction across different timeframes [6][8] - The strategy involves three layers: long-term trend identification (daily), directional confirmation (60-minute), and precise entry points (5-minute) [7] - The article illustrates a successful trade in lithium carbonate, highlighting a significant profit with a risk-reward ratio of 1:12 [7][12] Group 2: Risk Management - Emphasizes the importance of trend-following and avoiding counter-trend trades, which account for 90% of losses [9][10] - Advocates for small stop-losses (not exceeding 0.5% of total capital) and allowing profits to run without predetermined exit points [11][12] - The article stresses that small stop-losses serve as a safety net while larger take-profits act as a profit engine [13] Group 3: Selection of Trading Instruments - Highlights the significance of choosing the right instruments, suggesting that traders should select the strongest instruments for long positions and the weakest for short positions [14] - Provides an example of iron ore outperforming other commodities during a market downturn, reinforcing the principle of "the strong get stronger, and the weak get weaker" [14] Group 4: High Probability Trading - Defines high probability trading not as prediction but as adherence to established rules [15] - The article encourages traders to build their own high-probability rules based on multi-timeframe analysis and trend confirmation [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a peak near $4380 before a slight decline due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties, with current trading around $4220 [2][3] - Gold's market capitalization exceeds $30 trillion, indicating significant global capital inflow into gold as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing trade tensions and economic instability [2][3] - Traders anticipate a 96.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meetings, which supports gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [3][6] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates a significant downward trend in gold prices, with a recent high of $4379 followed by a drop to $4186, suggesting a potential for further declines [4][6] - The article outlines specific trading strategies for gold, recommending short positions around $4275-$4280 and long positions near $4175-$4180, emphasizing the importance of stop-loss measures [6][8] - The analysis reflects a broader sentiment of caution among traders, with a focus on market trends and the necessity of adapting strategies based on real-time market conditions [6][8]

股市，汇市，币市，市市大涨，今年到处都是牛的声音，A股逼近3900点，黄金今年涨幅40%以上。 1小时，金价经过震荡整理之后重启上涨，早间涨到3650美元，整体行情多头趋势没有变，依旧是回撤做多为主，而防守的点仍然是在3610美元，当这里 失守了，再考虑调整思路。 上涨过程中，有一些颠簸很正常，习惯短期慢涨或滞涨，只要结构没有发生改变，轻易别质疑牛市的结束。 今天，我认为可以在3643-40的范围内多，别等更大的回调，如果再掉下来反而说明涨不动了，向上关注3662-65美元，重点关键前高点突破情况。 自4月份，全球贸易冲突爆发之后，美联储过度担心通胀因素反弹，迟迟不推进降息，特朗普任期内贸易冲突不可避免，美联储也慢慢接受短期通胀反 弹。 恐高，多数散户的通病，担心价格太高买在山顶，从来不担心逆势做空被套，微有回调大喊狼来了，恐吓情绪互相传染，记住一点：做大放小，顺势交 易，自3310美元上涨以来，连续14次准确，没有一张空单，这就是顺势。 赚钱，就得赚趋势的钱，赚风口的钱，积少成多是伪命题，做时间的朋友才是硬道理。 周四，金价高位震荡，回踩确认3610美元强支撑，在《黄金，3630多！》文中明确指出，判断顶部 ...

Group 1 - The company is organizing a nationwide fan meeting for the first time since 2017, focusing on smaller, more in-depth discussions to address user questions effectively [1] - The event will not have any sponsors, aiming to prioritize user engagement and problem-solving over business activities [1] - The meeting locations will be determined based on user registration numbers, allowing for events in smaller cities if enough participants sign up [1] Group 2 - The gold market has seen a significant influx of investors due to rising prices, but the company warns of potential volatility and market corrections [2] - The company plans to share experiences and lessons learned from past market cycles during the upcoming meetings, emphasizing the importance of market awareness and risk management [2] - The next meeting is scheduled in Shenzhen, with additional locations in nearby cities, highlighting the company's commitment to reaching a broader audience [2] Group 3 - Recent gold price movements indicate a volatile market, with key support and resistance levels identified at $3240 and $3250 [3] - The company advises caution in trading strategies, emphasizing the need for flexibility and timely adjustments based on market conditions [5] - Current trading ranges are established between $3290 and $3315, with recommendations to observe market behavior before making decisions [6]

Core Viewpoint - Effective international spot gold trading strategies are crucial for investors to achieve returns in the financial market [1] Trading Strategies Summary - **Risk Management**: Investors should set reasonable stop-loss and take-profit points to control risk exposure. Diversification is also an effective method to reduce risk by investing in different asset types [3] - **Trend Trading**: Gold price movements exhibit certain trends, which are difficult to change once established. Investors should respect the trend unless a clear market change occurs [3] - **Limit Price Platforms**: Choosing limit price platforms for trading can help control risks by allowing investors to set stop-loss and take-profit levels effectively [3] - **Technical Analysis**: Analyzing charts and technical indicators, such as moving averages and RSI, can help predict price movements and inform buy/sell decisions [4] - **Light Position Trading**: Investors should operate with light positions and follow market trends to increase the chances of success while avoiding excessive risk [4] - **Timing the Market**: Due to high volatility in the gold market, investors must choose appropriate entry points based on market trends and their risk tolerance [5] - **Understanding Price Influences**: Gold prices are affected by various factors, including the US dollar exchange rate, global political situations, and economic data, which investors need to monitor closely [5] - **Range Trading Strategy**: This strategy is suitable for stable market conditions, where investors buy near support levels and sell near resistance levels to profit from price fluctuations [6] - **Maintaining Composure**: Trading psychology significantly impacts outcomes. Investors should remain calm and rational, adhering to their strategies without succumbing to market emotions [7] - **Continuous Learning**: Patience and discipline are essential qualities for successful trading. Investors should cultivate these traits and consistently improve their trading skills and experience [9]

试盘，就是要刺探多空双方力量的强弱。所以，试盘时，我们绝不能有主观的多空偏好，而是要"无多空"地，在交易系统的提示下出入场。不做死多头， 也不做死空头，而要做一颗"海草"，随波飘摇，在浪花里舞蹈。我们要做一个真正的顺势者，不去预测市场，而是感悟市场，应对市场。 ——笔记哥《应对 》 【笔记20250102— 开门红：血流成河 VS 满面红光（+财新PMI低于预期+股市大跌+资金面收敛转松=大下)】 资金面收敛转松，长债收益率大幅下行。 央行公开市场开展248亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2986亿元逆回购到期。净回笼2738亿元。 | 利率信矩阵 信用债矩阵 | | NCD矩阵 中资美元债 | 全球国债 | | | | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 11 | 2Y | 3Y | 54 | 7Y | 10Y | 30Y | | | 220026.IB | 240019.IB | 240016.IB | 240014.IB | 240018.IB | 240011.IB | 2400006.IB | | 中国 | 1.0300 | ...