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上美股份(02145.HK):主品牌抖音龙头地位稳固多品牌多品类布局日益完善
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-05 13:26
Core Viewpoint - The main brand, Han Shu, is solidifying its leading position in the Douyin beauty sector and is experiencing rapid growth on other e-commerce platforms [1][2] Group 1: Brand Performance - Han Shu maintained the top position in Douyin beauty rankings for Chinese brands, achieving this for two consecutive years in 2023 and 2024, and has held this ranking every month in the first eight months of 2023 [1] - The brand's competitive strength is highlighted by proactive adjustments to its live broadcasting and self-broadcasting models amid increasing industry competition [1] - In addition to Douyin, Han Shu's GMV on platforms like Tmall, Vipshop, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou grew by over 20% in the first half of the year, indicating effective multi-platform collaboration [1] Group 2: New Growth Drivers - The mid-to-high-end baby and child brand, Yi Ye, reported a 147% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of the year, with its revenue share rising to 9.6%, establishing it as the company's second growth curve [2] - Yi Ye's expansion from baby skincare to a full range of efficacy skincare for ages 0-18 is expected to further enhance its growth potential, with a projected compound annual growth rate of around 60% over the next three years [2] - The launch of the new color cosmetics brand, NAN beauty, in mid-August, is expected to enrich the company's multi-brand matrix, supported by collaborations with top makeup artists and e-commerce experts [2] Group 3: Long-term Growth Potential - The company's multi-brand and multi-category strategy is becoming increasingly robust, with several new brands and product categories in development [2] - The success of the multi-brand approach is attributed to effective incentive and management mechanisms, including internal empowerment and a results-oriented culture, as well as an open attitude towards external collaborations [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company's earnings forecast has been slightly adjusted, with expected earnings per share for 2025-2027 at 2.78, 3.55, and 4.37 RMB respectively [2] - A target price of 103.21 HKD is set for 2025, based on a 34x PE ratio, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]
上美股份(02145):主品牌抖音龙头地位稳固,多品牌多品类布局日益完善
Orient Securities· 2025-09-04 06:07
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10] Core Views - The main brand, Han Shu, has solidified its leading position in the Douyin beauty sector and is experiencing rapid growth on other e-commerce platforms, with a strong performance across multiple platforms [9] - The second growth curve has formed with the mid-to-high-end baby and child brand, Yi Ye, showing a significant revenue increase of 147% year-on-year, contributing to the company's growth [9] - The company launched a new high-end professional makeup brand, NAN beauty, which is expected to enhance its multi-brand strategy [9] - The company's multi-brand and multi-category layout is becoming increasingly mature, supported by effective management and incentive mechanisms [9] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.78, 3.55, and 4.37 RMB respectively, with a target price of 103.21 HKD based on a 34x PE ratio for 2025 [4][10] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with 2023 revenue at 4,191 million RMB and expected to reach 12,411 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4][10] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 75%, while the net profit margin is projected to improve from 11.0% in 2023 to 14.0% in 2027 [4][10]
上美股份20250730
2025-08-05 03:20
Summary of Shangmei Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Shangmei Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 6.7 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 62.1%, with net profit increasing by 74% [2][3] - The company was founded in 2002 and focuses on skincare, hair care, and maternal and infant products, with brands including Han Shu, New Page, Yi Ye Zi, Red Elephant, and Anminyou [3] Core Strategies and Insights - **Brand Premiumization Strategy**: Shangmei adopts a dual-track strategy for brand premiumization, enhancing product efficacy through self-developed core ingredients (e.g., Anminyou's artemisinin oil) and IP collaborations (e.g., with the "Anpanman" brand for maternal and infant care) [2][4] - **Channel Strategy Adjustment**: The company is shifting from a heavy focus on Douyin to a multi-channel approach, with Douyin's channel share slightly decreasing to 75% in Q1 2025, while Tmall and JD.com are gaining share [2][6] - **"2+2+2" Brand Strategy**: This strategy targets mass, mid-to-high-end, and high-end markets across skincare, maternal and infant care, and hair care categories [2][7] Product Performance - **Han Shu Brand**: Han Shu's red waist series 2.0 version has sold over 14 million sets, and new high-margin products like Chatai Super Frequency Cream are expected to enhance profitability [2][8] - **Growth Projections**: The Han Shu brand is expected to achieve approximately 20% growth in 2025, driven by anti-aging, men's skincare, and color cosmetics segments [2][9] Future Growth Drivers - **Emerging Brands**: New Page is rapidly growing in the maternal and infant care market, with plans to expand into teenage care and color cosmetics [2][9] - **New Product Launches**: The upcoming brands, such as Nambeauty and the Anpanman collaboration, are projected to achieve over 100 million RMB in sales in their first year [2][9] Profitability Enhancement Measures - **High-Margin Product Focus**: Increasing the proportion of high-margin new products, such as Han Shu's new offerings, is expected to boost overall gross and net profit margins [2][10] - **Channel Optimization**: A strategic reduction in the proportion of live streaming sales and an increase in self-broadcasting and high-margin channels like Tmall and JD.com will enhance profitability [2][10] - **Sales Expense Reduction**: The company anticipates a gradual decrease in sales expense ratio, projected to drop by about 1 percentage point annually from 2025 to 2027 [2][10] Financial Outlook - Shangmei is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 24.1%, 20.8%, and 20.7% from 2025 to 2027, with adjusted net profits growing by 33.8%, 21.4%, and 18.8% respectively [2][10]