机构：中金公司 研究员：徐卓楠/黄蔓琪 公司动态 公司近况 我们近期组织上美股份业绩后NDR交流。公司主品牌韩束品类拓展顺利，持续拓宽人群覆盖；年中以 来多个小品牌模式跑通、快速起量，多品牌集团逻辑逐步兑现；长期看，人才及组织架构为构建平台型 化妆品集团提供底层支撑。我们看好公司中长期成长前景。 评论 1、主品牌韩束品类、功效拓展顺利，持续拓宽人群覆盖。韩束凭借多年沉淀的自有供应链及灵活高效 的线上运营能力，于大众价格带以质价比取胜，品牌可及空间广阔，多品类拓展顺利，Q3 进一步起 量：1H25 韩束抖音红白蛮腰系列合计占比下降至60%+，次抛占比提至约15%，男士/彩妆/洗护/身体护 理合计占比提至近10%；8 月次抛抖音月GMV进一步爬坡至超2 亿元，占比25%，洗护/身体护理/男士 合计占比提至超10%。 2、多个小品牌模式跑通、起量趋势亮眼，2H25 起多品牌集团逻辑逐步兑现。①一页：7-8 月线上GMV 延续翻倍增长；②安敏优：上半年品牌调整显效，年中以来显著提速，8 月抖音GMV提升至约2000 万 元；③极方：5 月发力推广以来逐月起量，8 月抖音GMV爬坡至近2000 万元；④聚光白：合作抖音 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shumei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 31/25x for those years, and raises the target price by 5% to HKD 111, indicating a 14% upside potential [1] Company Status - CICC recently organized a non-deal roadshow (NDR) for Shumei Co., Ltd. The main brand, Han Shu, is successfully expanding its product categories and continuously broadening its customer base. Since mid-year, several small brand models have been successfully implemented and are rapidly gaining traction, validating the multi-brand group strategy. The company is expected to have strong long-term growth prospects due to its talent and organizational structure [2] Main Brand Expansion - Han Shu is leveraging its established supply chain and efficient online operations to succeed in the mass market with a strong price-performance ratio. The brand has a wide reach, and its product category expansion is progressing well. In Q3, the proportion of the Douyin Hongbai Mankui series decreased to over 60%, while the share of secondary products increased to about 15%. The combined share of men's, color cosmetics, hair care, and body care reached nearly 10%. In August, the monthly GMV for secondary products on Douyin exceeded RMB 200 million, accounting for 25% [3] Small Brand Performance - Several small brand models are showing impressive growth trends, with online GMV continuing to double in July and August. Specific brands include: - Anminyou: Significant acceleration since mid-year, with Douyin GMV reaching about RMB 20 million in August - Jifang: Monthly growth since May, with Douyin GMV nearing RMB 20 million in August - Juguangbai: Collaborated with top KOLs on Douyin, achieving over RMB 50 million in GMV and profitability in its first month - Nan Beauty: New products launched in early September - Bread Man: New products launched in early September [4] Organizational Support - The company emphasizes organizational drive and talent support, with a performance-oriented and flexible organizational structure. Brand divisions enjoy high decision-making autonomy, and the company continues to attract top talent and implement effective incentive mechanisms. This establishes a replicable brand incubation system, supporting the expansion of a multi-category and multi-brand matrix. The company is also actively pursuing overseas expansion, with supply chain development and team building in Southeast Asia progressing steadily. CICC is optimistic about Shumei's long-term growth as a multi-brand and multi-category platform company [5]

Core Viewpoint - The main brand, Han Shu, is solidifying its leading position in the Douyin beauty sector and is experiencing rapid growth on other e-commerce platforms [1][2] Group 1: Brand Performance - Han Shu maintained the top position in Douyin beauty rankings for Chinese brands, achieving this for two consecutive years in 2023 and 2024, and has held this ranking every month in the first eight months of 2023 [1] - The brand's competitive strength is highlighted by proactive adjustments to its live broadcasting and self-broadcasting models amid increasing industry competition [1] - In addition to Douyin, Han Shu's GMV on platforms like Tmall, Vipshop, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou grew by over 20% in the first half of the year, indicating effective multi-platform collaboration [1] Group 2: New Growth Drivers - The mid-to-high-end baby and child brand, Yi Ye, reported a 147% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of the year, with its revenue share rising to 9.6%, establishing it as the company's second growth curve [2] - Yi Ye's expansion from baby skincare to a full range of efficacy skincare for ages 0-18 is expected to further enhance its growth potential, with a projected compound annual growth rate of around 60% over the next three years [2] - The launch of the new color cosmetics brand, NAN beauty, in mid-August, is expected to enrich the company's multi-brand matrix, supported by collaborations with top makeup artists and e-commerce experts [2] Group 3: Long-term Growth Potential - The company's multi-brand and multi-category strategy is becoming increasingly robust, with several new brands and product categories in development [2] - The success of the multi-brand approach is attributed to effective incentive and management mechanisms, including internal empowerment and a results-oriented culture, as well as an open attitude towards external collaborations [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company's earnings forecast has been slightly adjusted, with expected earnings per share for 2025-2027 at 2.78, 3.55, and 4.37 RMB respectively [2] - A target price of 103.21 HKD is set for 2025, based on a 34x PE ratio, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10] Core Views - The main brand, Han Shu, has solidified its leading position in the Douyin beauty sector and is experiencing rapid growth on other e-commerce platforms, with a strong performance across multiple platforms [9] - The second growth curve has formed with the mid-to-high-end baby and child brand, Yi Ye, showing a significant revenue increase of 147% year-on-year, contributing to the company's growth [9] - The company launched a new high-end professional makeup brand, NAN beauty, which is expected to enhance its multi-brand strategy [9] - The company's multi-brand and multi-category layout is becoming increasingly mature, supported by effective management and incentive mechanisms [9] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.78, 3.55, and 4.37 RMB respectively, with a target price of 103.21 HKD based on a 34x PE ratio for 2025 [4][10] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with 2023 revenue at 4,191 million RMB and expected to reach 12,411 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4][10] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 75%, while the net profit margin is projected to improve from 11.0% in 2023 to 14.0% in 2027 [4][10]

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Company Overview - **Company**: Shangmei Co., Ltd. (上美股份) - **Industry**: Cosmetics and Personal Care - **Date of Report**: September 2, 2025 Key Points and Arguments 1. **Performance Outlook**: The company maintains a positive outlook for the second half of the year, with strong first-half results showing revenue and profit growth of 17% and 31% year-over-year, respectively, aligning with positive earnings forecasts [1][9][18]. 2. **Business Strategy**: The strategic shift towards self-broadcasting on Douyin has proven effective, with the "Han Shu" brand leading the beauty category on the platform, achieving a GMV ranking that is over twice that of the second place [1][4]. 3. **Sales Growth**: Year-to-date sales have increased by over 25%, with a target of exceeding 40% GMV growth for the year [1][4]. 4. **Future Goals**: The company aims for a 25% growth in both revenue and profit by 2026, with a mid-term goal of reaching 30 billion yuan in revenue by 2030 [1][4][18]. 5. **New Product Lines**: The second growth curve, represented by the "Yi Ye" brand, has seen a sales increase of 147% to 397 million yuan in the first half of 2025, surpassing 2024 levels [1][4]. 6. **International Expansion**: Plans for overseas expansion are set to begin in 2026, targeting Southeast Asia, including Indonesia [1][4]. 7. **Dividend Policy**: The interim dividend is set at 0.5 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 38%, down from 76% in 2024 due to capital expenditures for new capacity and overseas investments, while maintaining a long-term payout ratio of 30-50% [1][4]. 8. **Market Position**: As of 2024, Shangmei is among the top ten domestic beauty brands in China, with a market share of 1.4% and retail sales of 7.7 billion yuan [9][18]. 9. **Financial Projections**: Revenue and profit are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% and 30%, respectively, from 2025 to 2027, with operating profit margins projected to rise from 10.9% in 2024 to 14.0% in 2027 [9][18]. 10. **Valuation**: The target price is set at 109 HKD, corresponding to a 24x 12-month forward P/E ratio, based on a discounted cash flow analysis [1][9][19]. Additional Important Information - **Sales Efficiency**: The shift to self-broadcasting has led to improved advertising efficiency, with a decrease in sales expense ratio by 0.7 percentage points in the first half of 2025 [4]. - **Brand Performance**: The "Han Shu" brand accounted for 81.4% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, with significant contributions from online sales channels [16]. - **Financial Metrics**: The company reported a net profit of 556 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 35% increase year-over-year [14]. - **Risks and Catalysts**: Key risks include product quality issues and inflation, while potential upside catalysts involve successful new brand launches and better-than-expected growth from the main brand [21][22]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, financial performance, and market positioning within the cosmetics industry.

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady revenue growth in H1 2025, driven by its main brand Han Shu and the rapid growth of the sub-brand Yi Ye [1][2]. Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.108 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.29% [1]. - Revenue breakdown by brand: - Han Shu: 3.344 billion yuan, up 14.27%, accounting for 81.40% of total revenue [1]. - Yi Ye: 397 million yuan, up 146.46%, accounting for 9.67% of total revenue [1]. - Hong Se Xiao Xiang: 159 million yuan, down 8.67%, accounting for 3.87% of total revenue [2]. - Yi Ye Zi: 89 million yuan, down 29.02%, accounting for 2.16% of total revenue [2]. Category Performance - Revenue by category: - Skincare: 3.424 billion yuan, up 10.15%, accounting for 83.35% of total revenue, mainly driven by Han Shu [2]. - Maternal and infant care: 557 million yuan, up 65.05%, accounting for 13.55% of total revenue, mainly driven by Yi Ye [2]. - Other categories: 127 million yuan, up 124.30%, accounting for 3.10% of total revenue [2]. Channel Performance - Revenue by channel: - Online channels: 3.809 billion yuan, up 20.09%, accounting for 92.71% of total revenue, with online self-operated sales at 3.421 billion yuan, up 24.62% [2]. - Offline channels: 269 million yuan, down 10.64%, accounting for 6.54% of total revenue [2]. - Other channels: 31 million yuan, up 1.33%, accounting for 0.74% of total revenue [2]. Profitability - The company maintained a stable gross margin of 75.52%, down 0.99 percentage points, and a net profit margin of 12.76%, up 1.30 percentage points [3]. - The increase in net profit margin is attributed to other income and gains reaching 179 million yuan, up 358% [3]. Investment Outlook - The company focuses on a multi-brand strategy, with Han Shu's brand strength expected to continue growing through category expansion and channel development [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 8.511 billion yuan, 10.412 billion yuan, and 12.541 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.054 billion yuan, 1.340 billion yuan, and 1.671 billion yuan respectively [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company has released a positive earnings forecast, expecting significant revenue growth in the first half of the year, with profits expected to exceed revenue growth substantially [1][2] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - The company anticipates revenue between 4.09 billion and 4.11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1] - Profit is expected to be between 540 million and 560 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1] - The net profit margin for the first half is projected to be between 13.1% and 13.7%, indicating a significant improvement [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The revenue growth is primarily driven by the main brand, Han Shu, and the rapid growth of the infant and child brand, Yi Ye [1] - The company has adjusted its reliance on Douyin for sales, leading to a maintained industry-leading position for Han Shu in Douyin sales [1] - The market has underestimated the company's operational capabilities in the high-cost performance sector and its flexible cooperation model [1] Group 3: Long-term Growth Potential - The company is one of the few local cosmetics groups with a mature multi-brand and multi-category development strategy [2] - The main brand, Han Shu, is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 20% over the next three years [2] - The mid-to-high-end infant brand, Yi Ye, is projected to grow by over 100% this year, with a future CAGR of over 50% [2] - New brands and product lines, such as the hair care brand Ji Fang and skincare brand ATISER, are expected to contribute to future growth [2] Group 4: Earnings Adjustment - The earnings forecast has been adjusted, with expected earnings per share for 2025-2027 being 2.71, 3.42, and 4.19 yuan respectively [2] - A target price of 97.72 HKD has been set for 2025, based on a 33 times price-to-earnings ratio [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5][10] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 at 2.71, 3.42, and 4.19 RMB respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment from previous estimates [2][10] - The target price is set at 97.72 HKD, based on a 33x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 [2][10] - The company has demonstrated strong performance in the first half of the year, with revenue growth driven by its main brand, Han Shu, and the rapid expansion of its infant brand, Yi Ye [9][10] Financial Information Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 4,191 in 2023 to 12,350 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 56.6%, 62.1%, 24.7%, 22.3%, and 19.2% respectively [4][12] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 414 million RMB in 2023 to 1,739 million RMB in 2027, with significant growth rates of 308.5% in 2023 and 67.8% in 2024 [4][12] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 461 million RMB in 2023 to 1,669 million RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 213.5% in 2023 and 69.4% in 2024 [4][12] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 72.1% in 2023 to 76.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to increase from 11.0% to 13.5% over the same period [4][12] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong absolute performance, with a 165.8% increase over the past 12 months [6] - The stock price as of August 6, 2025, was 87.75 HKD, with a 52-week high of 90.9 HKD and a low of 28.84 HKD [5]

Company Overview - Shangmei Co., Ltd. is a multi-brand cosmetics group established in 2004, rebranded in 2015, and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2022, covering skincare, maternal and infant care, personal care, and makeup products [1] - The main brand, Han Shu, launched in 2003, is projected to be the second-largest domestic beauty brand in terms of online GMV in 2024, with the highest growth rate among leading beauty brands [1] - The company has capitalized on the growth of the Douyin platform, expecting rapid revenue growth from 2023 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 59.3% for revenue and 130.5% for net profit from 2022 to 2024 [1] Industry Analysis - The Chinese cosmetics industry has shown fluctuating growth since 2020, with a projected market size of 537.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 2.0% year-on-year decline [2] - Mass-market cosmetics are expected to outperform high-end products, indicating a consumer preference for cost-effectiveness [2] - In terms of product categories, makeup and infant care are expected to perform better than the overall cosmetics market [2] - Domestic brands are leveraging online channels to gain market share, with Douyin emerging as a significant platform, where Han Shu ranked first in GMV for beauty products in 2023 [2] Brand Performance - Han Shu is positioned as a mass-market brand focusing on scientific anti-aging, targeting a broad user base and expanding through new product launches and category extensions [2] - The brand "Yi Ye" is capitalizing on the children's care market, expecting triple-digit revenue growth for two consecutive years from 2023 to 2024, supported by endorsements from well-known actors and parenting experts [2] - Other potential brands include a hair care brand targeting hair loss and a makeup brand in collaboration with makeup artists, indicating a strategy to diversify growth avenues [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.06 billion yuan, 1.38 billion yuan, and 1.74 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.65, 3.47, and 4.37 yuan [3] - The estimated PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 23, 18, and 14 times, respectively [3] - A target price of 86 HKD is set for the company, with an initial "buy" rating based on absolute and relative valuation results [3]

Group 1: Market Strategy and Industry Outlook - The article suggests that the market style is expected to lean towards defensive and undervalued sectors, with high scores for industries such as coal, public utilities, banking, non-bank financials, construction decoration, and oil and petrochemicals, indicating potential investment opportunities [3] - The PB-ROE-50 strategy has outperformed the CSI 500, CSI 800, and the overall market by 2.39%, 1.30%, and 1.33% respectively, reflecting a strong performance in the current market environment [4] Group 2: Real Estate Sector - In May, the total sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies reached 317.8 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 2.9% but a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%. The cumulative sales from January to May showed a year-on-year decline of 8% [5] - Notable performers in May included China State Construction with a 455% increase, Sunac China with a 128% increase, and China Jinmao with a 72% increase, indicating some recovery in high-capacity cities [5] Group 3: Automotive Industry - The automotive market remained stable in May, with new forces expected to lead the industry in intelligent driving innovations. A new round of price wars is causing short-term disruptions, but the outlook for domestic sales in 2025 remains positive due to trade-in incentives [6] - The theme of intelligence in vehicles is anticipated to continue to develop, with a focus on companies capable of high-level autonomous driving and their supply chains [6] Group 4: Company-Specific Analysis - Up Beauty Co., listed in Hong Kong in 2022, has transformed from a single brand to a multi-brand, all-channel group, with its main brand, Han Shu, ranking second among domestic beauty brands in online GMV for 2024 and showing the fastest growth among leading beauty brands [7] - Peak Technology achieved a revenue of 600 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 45.94%, and a net profit of 222 million, up 27.18%. In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 171 million, a 47.34% year-on-year increase, indicating sustained growth momentum [8]