投资建议：公司是国内中高端女装市场领军企业，产品运营提效有望带动中长期业绩持续成长，估值具 备吸引力。我们预计2025~2027 年归母净利润分别为4.97/5.59/6.24 亿元，当前股价对应2025 年PE 为10 倍，维持"买入"评级。 渠道优化持续推进，期待2025H2 门店数量环比平稳为主。公司渠道体系以直营为主，近年来调整升级 渠道结构。分渠道来看：2025H1 直营/加盟/电商收入分别24.3/0.8/5.9 亿元，同比分别-8%/-38%/+9%， 毛利率分别同比+0.1/-0.8/+2.3pct至79.7%/73.5%/63.4%。量价拆分来看：1）店数方面：2025H1 末直营 门店较期初-56 家至1388 家，加盟门店较期初-18 家至377 家，期待2025H2 门店数量环比H1 末平稳为 主。2）店效方面：我们估计短期公司坚持渠道优化，开大店、关小店，调整门店面积及位置，2025 年 以来店效估计同比稳健为主。中长期来看，品牌力及产品效率的提升有望带动店效稳健提升。 零售承压导致库存周转效率变慢。短期公司终端表现承压使得库存周转速度变慢，2025H1 末公司存货 金额同比+17% ...

在市场竞争加剧和原材料成本普遍上涨的双重压力下，公司不仅让营收与毛利保持相对稳定，同时推动 净利润亏损同比大幅收窄，这意味着公司推动市场拓展、降本增效等方面的成效显著。 深究可以发现，蓝月亮上半年业绩改善，交出一份"提质减亏"成绩单的背后，其实是一场关于渠道优化 和产品创新的深刻战略变革。体现出蓝月亮在当下市场激烈竞争中的长远思虑与破局决心。盈利能力修 复经营韧性显现 纵观蓝月亮2025年中报，多个财务指标表现出积极向好的信号。一方面通过大力革新，通过推出创新型 的个人、家居清洁产品打造新增长点，体现了进取的"主动出击"战略；另一方面通过降本增效，体现了 稳健的"守成"战略。 在收入方面，公司营收保持相对稳定，核心优势依然稳固。衣物清洁护理产品实现收入26.4亿港元，占 总收入比重超87.0%，继续担当业绩压舱石。 具体来看，蓝月亮上半年录得营收30.4亿港元，毛利为17.6亿港元，与去年相比而言保持稳定状态。而 除税前亏损为4.6亿港元，同比大幅减少43.7%。 同时，公司正积极拓展增长曲线，其中个人护理和家庭护理板块表现亮眼。半年报显示，期内个人清洁 护理产品录得营收2.2亿港元，同比增长12.4%；家居 ...

事件：公司发布2025 年半年度报告，25H1 实现营收27.52 亿元，同比-5.05%，实现归母净利0.89 亿 元，同比-73.68%，实现扣非归母净利0.43亿元，同比-84.77%。25Q2 实现营业收入11.81 亿元，同比增 长9.69%，实现归母净利0.11 亿元，同比-88.17%，实现扣非归母净利-0.15 亿元，同比-124.39%。 风险提示：渠道拓展不及预期，食品安全问题，品牌建设不及预期等 净利率同比下滑。25Q2 归母净利率为0.96%，同比-7.98pct，扣非归母净利率为-1.27%，同比-6.98pct。 持续推新拓展品类矩阵，优化渠道服务提升效率。产品方面25 年公司加速推新，瓜子方面推出山野系 列瓜子、瓜子仁冰淇淋等新品；坚果品类推出全坚果、白坚果、风味坚果等系列产品；休闲食品推出蜂 蜜黄油味鲜切薯条以及魔芋等。全渠道覆盖，积极发力弱势市场，占比较大的传统渠道全面开展渠道精 耕战略，不断提升终端门店的运营效率，截止25H1 数字化终端网点数量约56 万家（24 年底为49 万 家），新渠道如会员店系统持续上新，积极拥抱零食量贩、即时零售等新兴渠道，此外积极拓展海外市 场 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·服装家纺 报喜鸟（002154） 2025 年中报点评：品牌表现分化，费用增加 净利承压 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 5,254 | 5,153 | 5,068 | 5,448 | 5,860 | | 同比（%） | 21.82 | (1.91) | (1.65) | 7.50 | 7.55 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 697.85 | 494.96 | 404.65 | 474.12 | 541.66 | | 同比（%） | 52.11 | (29.07) | (18.25) | 17.17 | 14.24 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.48 | 0.34 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.37 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 8.13 | 11.47 | 14.03 | 11.97 | 10.48 | [Table_Tag] [Tab ...

敷尔佳（301371）8月21日晚披露2025年半年度报告，报告期内，公司实现营业收入8.63亿元，同比减 少8.15%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润2.3亿元，同比减少32.54%；实现归属于上市公司股东的扣 除非经常性损益的净利润1.66亿元，同比减少48.66%；基本每股收益0.44元。 敷尔佳表示，本期营业收入下降，主要系报告期内公司优化线下渠道所致；本期净利润下降，主要系宣 传推广费用持续加大所致。 敷尔佳产品矩阵以医疗器械类产品与功能性护肤品为核心，覆盖面膜、水、精华、乳液、喷雾、次抛、 眼膜等多剂型，形成了包含美白、祛痘、抗皱、修护等多种功效的产品线。在产品销售方面，公司采用 多渠道布局策略，通过线上线下（300959）融合的方式，构建起多元化终端销售矩阵。线上已覆盖天 猫、抖音、京东、拼多多等主流电商平台；线下覆盖医疗机构、美容机构、连锁零售药店、化妆品专营 店及大型商超等多元化销售终端。 依托多年的口碑积累与品牌推广，敷尔佳培育出多个年销售额过亿元的明星单品，例如，医用透明质酸 钠修复贴(白膜)、医用透明质酸钠修复贴(黑膜)、敷尔佳清痘净肤修护贴等。 在产品布局上，敷尔佳持续深耕Ⅱ、Ⅲ类医 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月21日 投资建议：持续优化渠道产品结构，高分红价值持续，维持"优于大市" 公司持续完善多渠道布局、优化产品结构，通过多品类板材及辅料产品，提 升客单值和盈利能力，继续看好渠道下沉及小 B 渠道持续拉动，市占率提升 空间依旧巨大。考虑现阶段整体需求持续偏弱，下调盈利预测，预计 25-27 年 EPS 为 0.87/1.01/1.15 元/股（前值 0.96/1.04/1.14 元/股），对应 PE 为 11.9/10.3/9.1x，公司持续重视股东回报，积极实施中期分红，分红率达 86.7%，高分红价值持续，维持"优于大市"评级。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 9,063 | 9,189 | 8,867 | 9,503 | 10,092 | | (+/-%) | 1.6% | 1.4% | -3.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | | 净利润(百万元) | 689 | 585 | 728 | 841 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance met expectations, with a 7% increase in revenue to 6.8 billion and a 6% increase in profit to 910 million, indicating strong growth in the running and children's categories [1][3] Financial Performance - Revenue from continuing operations increased by 7% to 6.8 billion, while profit rose by 6% to 910 million, or a 21% increase when excluding losses from divested businesses in 1H24 [1] - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.18 HKD per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of approximately 50% [1] - Gross margin slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points, with the main brand's gross margin down by 0.3 percentage points due to increased competition in online channels and a higher proportion of children's business [3] Brand Performance - The main brand's revenue grew by 5% to 6.1 billion, with children's products outperforming adult categories and online sales achieving double-digit growth, contributing over 30% to main brand revenue [1] - The professional sports segment (Saucony and Merrell) saw a 33% revenue increase to 790 million, contributing 11% to total revenue [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on optimizing channels and accelerating the layout of shopping centers and outlet channels, closing a net of 22 adult stores and 20 children's stores in the first half of the year [1] - Management plans to gradually increase investment in Merrell by 2026/27, focusing on core products in outdoor activities [2] Inventory and Cost Management - Inventory turnover days increased by 23 days to 91 days due to pre-stocking for the marathon season and new store openings for Saucony [3] - Selling expenses increased by 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to rising platform fees and logistics costs associated with online business [3] Future Outlook - The company maintains guidance for full-year revenue growth and a net profit increase of over 10% [3] - Sales performance in July showed improvement, but August remains uncertain [3] Valuation - The EPS forecast for 2025/26 remains unchanged at 0.50/0.55 HKD, with the current stock price corresponding to 11/10 times the 2025/26 P/E ratio [3] - The target price has been raised by 5% to 7.23 HKD, reflecting a 13 times 2025 P/E ratio and an 18% upside potential [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company 361 Degrees [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in performance, with a 11% year-on-year increase in revenue to 5.7 billion RMB and a 9% increase in net profit to 860 million RMB for the first half of 2025, which is in line with expectations [6] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.204 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 45%, up from 40.3% in the first half of 2024, enhancing shareholder returns [6] - The children's clothing segment continues to grow at double-digit rates, while the gross margin for adult apparel has steadily improved [6] - E-commerce channels have shown strong growth, increasing by 45% to 1.82 billion RMB, accounting for 31.8% of total revenue [6] - The company has significantly improved its inventory and operating cash flow, with cash on hand of approximately 4.3 billion RMB and a low debt ratio of 2.2% [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: 84.23 billion RMB (2023), 100.7 billion RMB (2024), 111.8 billion RMB (2025E), 121.4 billion RMB (2026E), and 130.8 billion RMB (2027E) [5][15] - Net profit forecasts are: 9.6 billion RMB (2023), 11.5 billion RMB (2024), 12.6 billion RMB (2025E), 13.9 billion RMB (2026E), and 15.1 billion RMB (2027E) [5][15] - The gross margin is expected to slightly increase from 41.1% in FY2023 to 41.9% in FY2027 [5][15] - The price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 11 in FY2023 to 7 in FY2027 [5][15]

Core Viewpoint - 康师傅控股's revenue has faced significant pressure despite improvements in gross margin and net profit, with a notable decline in core business segments, particularly instant noodles and ready-to-drink products [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - 康师傅's gross margin increased by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year to 34.5%, while net profit grew by 20.46% to 2.271 billion RMB [1] - Revenue decreased by 3.51% year-on-year to 40.092 billion RMB [1] Group 2: Instant Noodle Business - The instant noodle segment, which accounts for over 30% of revenue, reported a revenue decline of 2.5% to 13.465 billion RMB in the first half of 2025 [2][5] - The overall domestic instant noodle sales have been declining since reaching a peak of 46.22 billion packages in 2013, with a drop to 43.12 billion packages in 2023 [4] - 康师傅's instant noodle revenue is projected to decline by 2.84% and 1.31% in 2023 and 2024, respectively [4] Group 3: Ready-to-Drink Products - The ready-to-drink segment, which contributes over 60% of 康师傅's revenue, also faced challenges, with tea, water, and juice revenues declining by 6.3%, 6%, and 13%, respectively [6][7] - The price increase of 康师傅's core product "康师傅冰红茶" in 2024 has led to a sudden slowdown in growth for the ready-to-drink tea business [8] Group 4: Distributor Network - The number of distributors has decreased significantly, from over 80,000 in 2021 to 63,806 as of mid-2025, reflecting a net reduction of 3,409 in the first half of 2025 [1][9] - The contraction of the distributor network has weakened 康师傅's market coverage, impacting the growth of its ready-to-drink business [9]

Core Viewpoint - Master Kong, once a beloved national brand, is now facing challenges with stagnant revenue growth, as evidenced by its recent financial report for the first half of 2025, which shows a revenue decline of 2.7% year-on-year [1][10]. Revenue Performance - In the first half of 2025, Master Kong reported revenue of approximately 400.92 billion yuan, a decrease of over 11 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.71 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.5% [1]. Segment Analysis - The decline in revenue is attributed to falling sales across major product categories: - Instant noodle sales decreased by 2.5% to 134.65 billion yuan, with container noodles down 1.3%, high-priced bag noodles down 7.2%, and mid-priced bag noodles up 8% [2]. - Beverage revenue fell by 2.6% to 263.59 billion yuan, with tea drinks down 6.3%, water down 6.0%, and fruit juice down 13.0%, while carbonated drinks saw a growth of 6.3% [4]. Distribution Network Changes - Master Kong is reducing its distribution network, with the number of distributors decreasing by 3,409 to 63,806 and direct retailers down by 1,499 to 219,124 compared to the end of 2024 [4]. - This trend of declining distributors and direct retailers has been ongoing since 2021, indicating a strategic shift towards optimizing less efficient channels [4]. Market Position and Competition - The company is facing structural challenges in the consumer market, as highlighted by an analyst who noted that despite a focus on cost-effectiveness, sales continue to decline due to reduced distribution channels [5]. - Master Kong's beverage segment is attempting to enhance product competitiveness through improvements in taste, packaging, and processes, resulting in a 2.5 percentage point increase in gross margin to 37.7% [5]. Pricing Strategy - There has been a noticeable increase in prices for some products, with reports of price hikes ranging from 11% to 20%, which may affect price-sensitive consumers and provide opportunities for competitors [6][10]. Industry Trends - The instant noodle market is experiencing significant challenges from emerging fast-food alternatives, such as spicy noodles and self-heating hot pots, necessitating a transformation within the industry [10]. - Master Kong is responding to market trends by launching new herbal drinks, but faces stiff competition from other players entering this emerging segment [10].