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工业硅、多晶硅日评:低位整理-20250618
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 01:21
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. Silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short - term, but the downward space may be limited. For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to have no upward trend in the short - term, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds [1]. Summaries by Related Information Industry Data - In the first quarter of 2025, global manganese ore consumption reached 5 million tons, a 1% year - on - year increase and a 6% quarter - on - quarter increase, mainly due to the growth of ferrosilicon - manganese production and inventory accumulation. The demand mainly came from China, while the global supply was stable at 4.6 million tons [1]. - Since 2025, India has issued multiple GW - level photovoltaic project tenders, with a photovoltaic project scale of about 7.1GW and a supporting energy storage system of about 2.2GW/8.8GWh, with an average energy storage duration of 4 hours [1]. Price Information Industrial Silicon - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closed at 7,360 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various types of industrial silicon in different regions (such as Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, and Sichuan) remained unchanged [1]. Polysilicon - N - type dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feeding material remained flat at 32.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon dense material remained flat at 31.5 yuan/kg, and polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 29.5 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closed at 34,010 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day [1]. Others - Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component prices remained unchanged, while organic silicon prices (DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil) decreased [1]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On the supply side, some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion, and those in the southwest were hesitant to resume production despite approaching the wet season. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises continued to reduce production, organic silicon enterprises had strong intentions to cut production to support prices but faced weak demand, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed [1]. Polysilicon - On the supply side, although some silicon material factories may have new capacity, the overall production is expected to increase slightly but remain within 100,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, and falling prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [1]. Forecast and Strategy Industrial Silicon - The silicon market is expected to operate under pressure at a low level in the short - term, and the downward space may be limited. It is necessary to continue to monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon price is expected to have no upward trend in the short - term, and the strategy is to short on rebounds. It is necessary to continue to monitor the changes on the supply side [1].
工业硅、多晶硅日评:低位整理-20250617
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 01:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a supply - demand imbalance with high inventory pressure, and silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure at low levels in the short term, with limited downward space [1] - The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental situation, and prices are expected to have no upward trend in the short term, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds [1] Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Market - **Price Information**: The average price of industrial silicon不通氧553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price was flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 0.34% to 7,370 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost - price inversion. In the southwest, although the wet season is approaching, enterprises lack confidence in the future, resulting in a decrease in overall production [1] - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises continued to reduce production, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry had a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand was weak. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed [1] Polysilicon Market - **Price Information**: N - type dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feeding material was flat at 32.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price rose 1.85% to 34,320 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained production cuts, and some new production capacity might be put into operation, with a slight increase in expected output but still within 100,000 tons [1] - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, and falling prices of silicon wafers, cells, and components [1] Other Market Information - **Automobile Industry**: In May 2025, passenger car production and sales were 2.313 million and 2.352 million units respectively, with month - on - month increases of 2.5% and 5.8%, and year - on - year increases of 12.8% and 13.3%. From January to May, production and sales were 11.08 million and 10.996 million units respectively, with year - on - year increases of 14.1% and 12.6% [1] - **Organic Silicon Market**: The domestic organic silicon DMC market's trading center continued to decline, and it was expected to decline slightly further. The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil changed, with DMC down 1.83% to 10,750 yuan/ton and 107 glue down 0.41% to 12,050 yuan/ton [1] - **New Energy Industry**: From January to May, the production of new energy vehicles and solar cells increased by 40.8% and 18.3% respectively. The power generation of wind and solar energy in large - scale industries increased by 11.1% and 18.3% respectively [1]
工业硅、多晶硅日评:工业硅略有反弹,多晶硅低位整理-20250610
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 02:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. The silicon price rebounded due to a false rumor of a major company's equity sale, and it is expected to decline again, but the subsequent downward space may be limited [1]. - The fundamentals of the polysilicon market are weak, with the transaction price moving down. Considering the high uncertainty of terminal installation and the short - term difficulty in solving the over - capacity problem, it is expected that the polysilicon price will not show an upward trend in the short term, and the strategy is to short on rebounds [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon's不通氧553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) also remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 2.54% to 7,475 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost - price inversion. In the southwest, although the flood season is approaching, enterprises lack confidence in the future, with overall high hesitation, low willingness to resume production, and overall production decline [1]. - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The silicon market has weak supply and demand, and high inventory pressure. After the false rumor is confirmed, the silicon price is expected to decline again, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach and continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg, the polysilicon re - feeding material price remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price fell 1.83% to 34,105 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and some factories may have new capacity put into production, with the expected output within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, continuously falling prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, slow market demand, and weak market transactions [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The fundamentals are weak, and the polysilicon price is expected to have no upward trend in the short term. The strategy is to short on rebounds, and continuously monitor the changes on the supply side [1]. Other Information - The Inner Mongolia Xingfa industrial silicon project entered the main - structure construction stage, with a planned annual production capacity of 100,000 tons [1]. - Hesheng Silicon Industry denied rumors of a planned equity transfer [1].